Texans vs. Ravens Odds & Betting Predictions - October 5, 2025

Beluga

THE BLITZ is forecasting 1.86 receptions for Isaiah Likely compared to 2.40 receptions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 48% of the time, resulting in a 34% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $33.86. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Trust me, I know how good Nico is and the injuries in the Ravens secondary (which is why his prop has been bumped up a handful of yards) and that’s the path for him to clear this number for the 3rd straight game. I wouldn’t be shocked if he does. But there are several factors working against him. Roquan Smith being out is a big blow to a run defense that already ranks 29th in DVOA. That should let the Texans lean more on the run, especially with rookie Woody Marks emerging last week. On the other side, Lamar Jackson is out, so the Ravens are likely to slow things down and improve in terms of time of possession (2nd lowest in league so far). Typically playing in Baltimore would lead to more pass volume for the Texans, but that’s been sort of flipped with Lamar out. Since Christian Kirk’s season debut, Nico’s target share has dropped 3%. Kirk’s only caught 50% of his targets (70% expected), so some positive regression there could siphon more production away from Nico. Add in kicker Tyler Loop’s struggles with the new kickoff rule (opponents start at the 33 on average, 4th worst in the league) and Houston could see shorter fields that cut into yardage totals. I project Nico around 5 catches, which lines up with the market. Using his 2 year average of nearly 15 yards per reception, he comes out closer to 75 yards (i.e. the market’s back of the napkin math to arrive at this number). In 10,000 sims, he stays under 74.5 about 60% of the time (his median being closer to 66.5). Sure, he has his share of 100+ yard games in there (I can literally see them in the sim lol), but overall this line is a little too high. This isn’t “Nico sucks, fade Nico.” There are just a few factors in play here the market might be overlooking.

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/BHq4lSblaXb

The Ravens defense is injured at effectively every position and has been terrible this season at just about everything, but can Houston really take advantage? The Texans have scored six touchdowns all season. Five of those six took until the fourth quarter, and Houston started four of the six drives in opposing territory, with two of them scored on broken plays. OC Nick Caley has not had any answers, nor the awful offensive line, and CJ Stroud has regressed badly. Houston's defense is the one great unit on the field. The Texans pass rush should cause all sorts of problems against a Ravens offensive line that has struggled, even before missing LT Ronnie Stanley and all that Lamar Jackson scrambling ability. Cooper Rush is decidedly not Lamar Jackson. Rush averages just over 20 PPG in his career starts, and we're reminded here why Tyler Huntley overs were always a thing for Baltimore with Jackson out. The splits with and without Lamar are stark. Baltimore's win rate drops from 70% with Jackson to 29% without him, going from 28.1 PPG to just 16.6. Totals in Ravens games plummet from 49.0 with Jackson playing to an ugly 35.9 without. What a wild game this is — a week ago, the Texans were 0-3 and left for dead. Now they're road favorites, and these teams are fighting for their lives and desperately trying to find any semblance of offense. Don't count on it. Houston games have finished with 23, 39, 27, and 26 points this season, all four going under this 40.5 total, an average of 28.75 points. In 13 games without Lamar Jackson since he became the full-time starter, Ravens games are under 40.5 in 10 of them, hitting our under. they're also below 33.5 in 62% of them and under 30.5 in over half (7x, 54%). That's why we're not fussing about the total dropping to 40.5 or lower, and it also means it's mineshaft season on this under. Take the under 40.5, and play under 37.5 at +145 (ESPN Bet), since that's the last key number for totals going down. Place part of your bet on under 33.5 at +235 (bet365) and under 30.5 at +350 (FanDuel) too since those are hitting in over half the non-Lamar Ravens games. If you want to go alllll the way down, under 27.5 is +560 at FanDuel. Even that has hit in three of 13 Ravens games without Jackson, and in three of Houston's four already this season. Let's get ugly.

Mentioned on Hot Read, grabbing biggest number available. Will like even with Lamar and love without.

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