Saints vs. Panthers Odds & Betting Predictions - November 9, 2025

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Proj closer to 24.5 with Tet expected to play now Edit: should say u31.5

Alvin Kamara over 8.5 1st Qtr Rushing Yds (-112 at FD) Saints head coach Kellen Moore has chosen to receive the opening kickoff 3 of 5 times his team won the coin toss, while his counterpart on the Panthers Dave Canales has chosen to defer 5 of 6 times. Based off those rates, the Saints would be over 70% favorites to start with the ball here, as they've done in 6 of their 9 games this year. Kamara himself has been most productive in the first quarter, not only from having more possessions, but also because the Saints tend to fall behind and abandon the run. Just over 40% of Kamara's rushing yards have come in the 1st quarter, including 43% in the 6 games where the Saints start with the ball. With his full game line at 36.5, this 8.5 number represents just 23.3% of the full game line. Carolina allows the eighth most adjusted yards before contact per attempt, marking the third easiest matchup by that metric for Kamara on the season. Kamara has cleared this line in 5 of 6 games where the Saints started with the ball, and 8 of 9 overall. Ladders of 1st Q rush yds or pivots to 1st qtr rush+rec yds overs are fine too

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We've been a hot streak with upsets, hitting both the Dolphins and Jets two weeks ago, then Panthers +750 ML last week. This week, we're picking against those Panthers, now hefty favorites this time around. Carolina has not won a game as favorites since September 2021. The Panthers have lost 10 times in a row as favorites, the longest such losing streak since the 1970 merger. Just like last week when we backed Carolina, the matchup here is key — but this time, some of the same things we liked about the Panthers as an underdog now work against them as the favorite. We liked Carolina last week because they can run and stop the run. That matched up well against a run-heavy Packers squad with a beatable run defense. But the one real strength on this Saints team is their run defense. Carolina leads the league in inside runs but comes into the game with a banged-up C-RG-RT combo along with Rico Dowdle, and the Saints rank 26th in EPA per play defending outside runs but 5th inside. And for as good as Carolina's run defense has been, the Panthers rank 29th in EPA per play against inside runs themselves, where New Orleans prefers to run the ball and may find some surprising success. This looks like an ugly, low scoring game. The total is below 40 and it looks windy with plenty of trends pointing under. Low scoring means a close game late and a chance for the underdog to steal. Since 2019, underdogs that have scored 16 or less in each of the last three games are 62% ATS — that's the Saints. By contrast, favorites that have scored 16 or less in each of their last three are 33% since 2018 — that's Carolina. We only have four matchups since 2018 where both of those things are true. The underdog is 3-1 ATS in those games, winning twice outright and losing another one by a single point. Tyler Shough didn't look too bad in his first start as a pro. Let's bet him to get his first NFL win at +215 on Saints ML (FanDuel).

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/fo0oUthH6Xb

@The_Oddsmaker https://myaction.app/EvaZ2p3F6Xb

3.1% ev play to -151