The New Orleans Saints (1-8) and Carolina Panthers (5-4) will face off in Week 10 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Panthers are 5.5-point favorites over the Saints on the spread (Panthers -5.5), with the over/under is set at 38.5 total points. Carolina is a -260 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while New Orleans is +205 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Saints vs Panthers predictions and my NFL picks for Sunday, November 9.
Saints vs Panthers Prediction, Picks
- Saints vs Panthers pick: Panthers -5.5 (-105)
My Panthers vs. Saints best bet is on Carolina to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Saints vs Panthers Odds for NFL Week 10
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 38.5 -115o / -105u | +205 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 38.5 -115o / -105u | -260 |
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers NFL Preview
The two headlines heading into this NFC South matchup revolve around Tyler Shough’s ineffectiveness and the resurgence of the Panthers rushing attack.
Let’s begin with the former.
The Saints had to see what they had in their second-round draft selection, but Shough does not seem ready to lead a franchise at this point.
He struggled with pressure dating back to his time at Louisville — and that remains the case in the NFL.
Through two games, Shough has been under pressure for 12 of his passing attempts — he has completed one pass for six yards on those throws.
The good news for the rookie signal-caller is the fact that Carolina ranks last in the league in pressure rate.
However, the Panthers rarely bring extra defenders in the box to help with the run, opting rather to sit back in zone coverage, which Shough also struggles mightily against.
Shough is averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt against zone coverage, with two interceptions thrown.
Carolina also uses Cover 3 at the third-highest rate in the league. Specifically against Cover 3, Shough is averaging just 4.6 yards per attempt on 21 attempts, with a -6.3% completion percentage over expectation.
If the Saints are fortunate enough to sustain drives, there is no guarantee they can consistently cash in for points.
The Panthers defense has some bend but doesn’t break to them. Over their last four games, they have allowed touchdowns on just 5-of-13 red-zone possessions.
When Carolina possesses the football, it is clear its identity revolves around running back Rico Dowdle.
Dowdle was extremely effective once again as the lead back against a very good Packers rush defense. Chuba Hubbard has taken a back seat, and for good reason.
Since Week 5, when Dowdle took over as the lead back, the Panthers have led the league in rushing — more than 100 yards ahead of the next-closest team.
The Panthers have moved the chains 45 times on the ground during those five games as well, second most in the league over that same span.
Saints vs Panthers Betting Predictions, Analysis
The Saints have been commendable against the run considering they have trailed in games for a league-high 87% of snaps.
New Orleans is 13th in rush defense DVOA and 16th in yards per carry allowed.
With that said, the Saints offense consistently puts their defense in poor positions and has them on the field too much.
I don’t see their disadvantaged situation changing much against a Dave Canales-coached team that is committed to pounding the rock.
Tyler Shough will improve as the season progresses, but for now, he has been thrust into a situation in which he is not ready to succeed.
Furthering his potential struggles, Rashid Shaheed was traded to the Seahawks.
Shaheed has 21 targets over the previous two games so this is a significant loss for the New Orleans offense.
I expect Carolina’s ground-based attack to be successful once again and that will undoubtedly lend a hand in them winning the turnover battle, something it has done in wins over the Packers and Jets.
Lay the points with the home team in this spot up to -6.
Saints vs Panthers Best Bet
- Panthers -5.5 (-105)
Saints vs Panthers Betting Trends
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