Patriots vs. Jaguars Odds & Betting Predictions - October 20, 2024

Gotta love some early morning extra value

🔑 D’Ernest Johnson ATD +220 (FanDuel) 1u Love this value and spot for him. His snaps will be split pretty much 50/50 with Tank and he should get the goal line carries and is the passing back. Dougy P loves him too. Let’s start with a early morning 💰

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The New England Patriots face struggles with rookie QB Drake Maye, shaky offense, and a weak offensive line. Maye’s turnovers and the Patriots' poor rankings in passing, total offense, and red zone efficiency compound their woes. The Jaguars, comfortable in London, have a strong ground game and should exploit the Patriots' weak defense. Jacksonville’s solid run defense gives them an edge over the Patriots.

Over in 3/4 with just 7+ attempts. Should function as the lead rusher vs the Pats, and this is the best chance in a while for the Jags to control the gamescript. Passing game has been rough, and I like them to feature Tank. Pats 27th in FTN’s DVOA metric against the run (and pass). Jags with a huge travel advantage and facing a rookie QB. Opposing RBs the L3 weeks: Mixon 102 yards, Mostert and Wright both 80+, Mason 123.

Tailing @RoyalsProps

FanDuel

London game

The Pats have phased out Thornton and Osborn the last two weeks, and Boutte has seen his snap and route share pop - he actually lead the Pats in routes run last week (and Polk has been pretty brutal, so I expect Boutte to complement Douglas). Over in each of the L2 - and even though the targets have been low, this is a spot where he could break out. The Jags secondary is bad (Tyson Campbell doesn’t scare me) - they allow the most yards per game to receivers. And they play man at the third highest rate. Boutte has popped vs man coverage (incredibly small sample size) - but this is a matchup where he could clear this with 1-2 catches. I have him at 5 targets.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-prop-picks-week-7-sunday

🔬”Pop, you can’t guard him in a phone booth” - Drake Maye. Pop now gets a jaguars defense that runs man at the second highest rate in the league. A jags defense that has been in London and is ready to come home so Doug Pederson can be fired 🔬Jags defense running cover 1 a league high 37% of the time but allows the 9th highest open rate to the middle of the field which has resulted in - Keenan 5/41/2 & Kmet 5/70/2, Jeudy 5/73 & Moore 6/44, Shakir 6/71/1, Diggs 5/69, Downs 9/69, Waddle 5/109.

TAN pod / best bets

Small longshot for London game. Still playing over 55% of snaps and caught a TD vs Man Coverage in W4 vs Niners. Jags play Man at top-3 rate. Henry still ok at +300 or above but wanted a long-shot to wake up to.

Fliff

The Jags have been one of the league’s worst defenses against opposing TE’s, giving up 4 TD’s over the past 4 games to the position. Just last weekend, they gave up two touchdowns to Cole Kmet, and the week before that Mo Allie-Cox scored against them. Go back to week 3, Dalton Kincaid scored his first TD of the season against them. On top of that rookie QB Drake Maye pumped some life into the Patriots offense. Maye threw for 243 yards and 3 touchdowns in his first start, including 1 to Henry. Henry actually saw a 15.1% target share in Maye’s first start and was on the receiving end of Maye’s only passing attempt inside the 10 yard line. All of that makes +470 seem like solid value to me.

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