Patriots vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - October 6, 2025

Live at half

Jovan told me to

1st on NE in RZ snaps (19) & T-1st in RZ routes (11) L2 weeks

#Tailing @nick_giffen

Austin Hooper over 1.5 rec (-118 at FD) Hooper's target share is pretty low early in the year, but a lot of that stems from Week 1 where he was used very little. In Weeks 2-4, Hooper's snap rate hovered between 62-65% and his route run rate between 42.5 and 54.5% The Bills play two-high safety looks at a high rate, and that's where Hooper has traditionally thrived in this Patriots offense, racking up his highest four highest targets per route run (TPRR) rates in 2024 against Cover 2 Man, Cover 2, Cover 4, and Cover 6 all of which are two-high safety looks Given the Patriots are more than a touchdown underdog, it also figures they'll be in a pass heavy script, which hasn't been the case for 2 of the 3 Patriots games in which Hooper saw his standard usage this year. That likely means a few more routes overall than he's averaged so far. I'm projecting him right at 2 catches, so while this isn't a monster edge, I do want to have a fun SNF sweat, so I'm playing this for just half a unit

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

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Bishop has yet to clear this number in four games, and his usage explains why. He’s playing in the box at a 15% lower rate, lining up deep 6% more often, and rushing the passer 5% more. All of that cuts into his tackle opportunities compared to last year. His production has been propped up by involvement on explosive runs, but the Bills have allowed a league-high 26 of those.. an unsustainable pace. Potential returns of Ed Oliver and Matt Milano (both questionable) would also help reduce those potential clean up chances. I project Bishop closer to 4.9 tackles with about a 62% chance to stay under 5.5.

BUF 30+ at home in 10 of last 11 regular season

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/BHq4lSblaXb

The Bills are one of two 4-0 squads and it feels like that unbeaten record and the No. 1 spot in every power rankings is giving this team an overpriced bump. Buffalo is 4-0, but what have the Bills really proven? They played the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints the last three games — winners of one game combined in September, against each other. The only win against a real team was Week 1 against the now 1-3 Ravens, which looks far less impressive in hindsight, especially since Buffalo was getting dominated for most of that game. Josh Allen is 7-6 against the Patriots, by far his toughest division opponent and most losses against any team, and four straight Bills-Patriots games have finished within one score. These Patriots might be better than you think. The offense is ahead of expectations, above average by DVOA and top quartile of the league passing, and that's almost entirely because of the development of Drake Maye. He looks like a star in the making and this could be a Sunday night coming out party, especially as Stefon Diggs continues to ramp up in his injury return and looks to show out against his old team. New England's offense is ahead of schedule. This was supposed to be a defense-forward team, and the run defense has ranked top 10 by DVOA but the pass defense is bottom five. But now star young CB Christian Gonzalez is back, and one player doesn't fix everything, but his presence bumps Carlton Davis back to CB2 and gives this secondary an entirely different look. It's not like the Bills defense has been that good. They're below average in many metrics, and the Pats will also have a pretty big special teams advantage with the way they've been returning kicks this season. A handful of trends — some 2-2 ones, some division underdogs — support the Patriots here, but I don't necessarily love the way New England matches up with Buffalo's pass defense shell. Can the Pats run the ball well enough to shorten the game and keep it close? Maybe, but if they're going to really contend here, it has to be a bet on Maye — and if I'm betting on Maye, I'm going all-in. Mike Vrabel has covered 64% of his games as an underdog of at least three points, but here's the crazy part: he has a winning record in those games at 21-20 SU, with a 59% ROI on the moneyline. When he's at least a six-point dog, he's still coaching .500 ball at 7-7 somehow, with a remarkable 102% ROI on the moneyline. Heavy favorites are dominating this weekend, but that might be buying us some value. Let's take a shot on the New England moneyline at +360 (BetMGM) and hope for a Sunday night shocker. I'm also investing in a +172 ticket for the Patriots to miss the playoffs (FanDuel). Only nine AFC teams are 2-2 or better right now like New England, and one of those is the fake Bengals. That might mean only eight teams for seven spots in the AFC, maybe the winner of the Ravens-Texans game, and that's only if the 3-1 Steelers, Colts, and Jaguars all stay in the picture too. Normally, we'd wait and invest in the Patriots after such a big underdog spot, but if New England wins this game, we're never seeing +172 again. This is the highest leverage game on the schedule this week, but the leverage is all upset for us as Patriots betters. New England drops from 36 to 31% to make the playoffs with a loss per PFF — hardly any movement — but jumps all the way to 60% with a win. If the Pats do get to 3-2, check out the schedule after Buffalo: Saints, Titans, Browns, Falcons, Bucs, Jets, Bengals, and Giants into the bye. That's an incredibly winning schedule, and if New England starts with a W in Buffalo, there may be no turning back.

Have this total at 54. Neither defense has impressed yet, and both offenses have been efficient. Weather looks good in Buffalo on Sunday night, as well.