Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds & Betting Predictions - September 14, 2025
Patriots at Dolphins
5:00 pm • CBSPatriots at Dolphins Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Patriots 1-1 | +2.5 | +2.5-115 | o43.5-108 | +110 |
 Dolphins 0-2 | u45.5 | -2.5-107 | u43.5-111 | -132 |
Hard Rock StadiumMiami Gardens
Patriots vs. Dolphins Expert Picks
Vegas Refund
Last 30d: 23-23-0 (-2.7u)
NE +2.5-110
1u
Wags Wins
Last 30d: 175-141-1 (+27.4u)
Over 42.5-117
1.07u
Matthew Freedman
Last 30d: 17-14-0 (+2.0u)
D.Achane Anytime TD Scorer Yes-115
1u
Projection: 0.77 TDs, -193. For more, check out the Fantasy Life player projections.
Shady Biev
Last 30d: 35-42-0 (-6.7u)
NE +2.5-112
1.5u
The Propfessor
Last 30d: 34-64-1 (-2.1u)
D.Maye o217.5 Pass Yds-120
0.83u
Dale Tanhardt
Last 30d: 11-25-0 (+13.4u)
S.Diggs Anytime TD Scorer Yes+260
0.8u
D.Maye Anytime TD Scorer Yes+420
2.52u
Capper Central
Last 30d: 103-66-0 (+26.0u)
MIA -115
1.15u
Royals Props
Last 30d: 11-17-0 (-8.3u)
J.Waddle o48.5 Rec Yds-110
1u
Moneyline Hacks
Last 30d: 101-124-5 (+20.6u)
NE +3-126
0.79u
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RocketPlays
Last 30d: 13-20-0 (+1.4u)
T.Henderson o18.5 Rec Yds-113
0.88u
Kyle Murray
Last 30d: 47-52-4 (+0.7u)
M.Washington o24.5 Rec Yds-118
1.18u
Brandon Anderson
Last 30d: 8-49-0 (-18.5u)
H.Henry o3.5 Recs+130
0.75u
The Patriots were a tough watch in Week 1, but one thing that stood out watching the film was just how much Hunter Henry was involved.
Henry's eight targets led the team, and his 117 air yards were by far the most of any tight end in Week 1. He finished fourth in expected fantasy points among tight ends too.
This probably shouldn't come as a huge surprise. Josh McDaniels has been the guy designing the Patriots offenses that saw Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez put up huge seasons — and he was also running the offense for Henry's best season as a professional.
Miami allowed 13 tight ends last season to record at least 32 yards — including Henry both matchups, at 32 and 44 yards. The Dolphins also allowed Colts rookie TE Tyler Warren to shred them for seven catches and 76 yards on nine targets in Week 1.
Henry has been a go-to guy for Drake Maye. He's averaging 6.6 targets across 10 full games with Maye and 11.3 fantasy points, both top eight among tight ends. That includes at least eight targets in 7-of-10 games, and he's had at least 38 yards and at least four catches in 8 of the 10, averaging 52 YPG with games of six, seven, seven, and eight catches.
Books have not caught up to Henry, so over 31.5 receiving yards is a bargain (-113, BetRivers), and we'll touch 50+ yards at +270 too (bet365).
The receptions lines might look even better. Over 3.5 receptions is +130 at bet365, and he's gone over that in eight of 10 starts with Maye, so let's play the receptions escalator too: 5+ at +300, 6+ at +650, and 7+ at +1300, since he's hit that top number in 30% of his Maye games.
H.Henry 5+ Receptions Yes+300
0.25u
The Patriots were a tough watch in Week 1, but one thing that stood out watching the film was just how much Hunter Henry was involved.
Henry's eight targets led the team, and his 117 air yards were by far the most of any tight end in Week 1. He finished fourth in expected fantasy points among tight ends too.
This probably shouldn't come as a huge surprise. Josh McDaniels has been the guy designing the Patriots offenses that saw Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez put up huge seasons — and he was also running the offense for Henry's best season as a professional.
Miami allowed 13 tight ends last season to record at least 32 yards — including Henry both matchups, at 32 and 44 yards. The Dolphins also allowed Colts rookie TE Tyler Warren to shred them for seven catches and 76 yards on nine targets in Week 1.
Henry has been a go-to guy for Drake Maye. He's averaging 6.6 targets across 10 full games with Maye and 11.3 fantasy points, both top eight among tight ends. That includes at least eight targets in 7-of-10 games, and he's had at least 38 yards and at least four catches in 8 of the 10, averaging 52 YPG with games of six, seven, seven, and eight catches.
Books have not caught up to Henry, so over 31.5 receiving yards is a bargain (-113, BetRivers), and we'll touch 50+ yards at +270 too (bet365).
The receptions lines might look even better. Over 3.5 receptions is +130 at bet365, and he's gone over that in eight of 10 starts with Maye, so let's play the receptions escalator too: 5+ at +300, 6+ at +650, and 7+ at +1300, since he's hit that top number in 30% of his Maye games.
H.Henry 6+ Receptions Yes+650
0.25u
The Patriots were a tough watch in Week 1, but one thing that stood out watching the film was just how much Hunter Henry was involved.
Henry's eight targets led the team, and his 117 air yards were by far the most of any tight end in Week 1. He finished fourth in expected fantasy points among tight ends too.
This probably shouldn't come as a huge surprise. Josh McDaniels has been the guy designing the Patriots offenses that saw Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez put up huge seasons — and he was also running the offense for Henry's best season as a professional.
Miami allowed 13 tight ends last season to record at least 32 yards — including Henry both matchups, at 32 and 44 yards. The Dolphins also allowed Colts rookie TE Tyler Warren to shred them for seven catches and 76 yards on nine targets in Week 1.
Henry has been a go-to guy for Drake Maye. He's averaging 6.6 targets across 10 full games with Maye and 11.3 fantasy points, both top eight among tight ends. That includes at least eight targets in 7-of-10 games, and he's had at least 38 yards and at least four catches in 8 of the 10, averaging 52 YPG with games of six, seven, seven, and eight catches.
Books have not caught up to Henry, so over 31.5 receiving yards is a bargain (-113, BetRivers), and we'll touch 50+ yards at +270 too (bet365).
The receptions lines might look even better. Over 3.5 receptions is +130 at bet365, and he's gone over that in eight of 10 starts with Maye, so let's play the receptions escalator too: 5+ at +300, 6+ at +650, and 7+ at +1300, since he's hit that top number in 30% of his Maye games.
H.Henry 7+ Receptions Yes+1300
0.25u
The Patriots were a tough watch in Week 1, but one thing that stood out watching the film was just how much Hunter Henry was involved.
Henry's eight targets led the team, and his 117 air yards were by far the most of any tight end in Week 1. He finished fourth in expected fantasy points among tight ends too.
This probably shouldn't come as a huge surprise. Josh McDaniels has been the guy designing the Patriots offenses that saw Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez put up huge seasons — and he was also running the offense for Henry's best season as a professional.
Miami allowed 13 tight ends last season to record at least 32 yards — including Henry both matchups, at 32 and 44 yards. The Dolphins also allowed Colts rookie TE Tyler Warren to shred them for seven catches and 76 yards on nine targets in Week 1.
Henry has been a go-to guy for Drake Maye. He's averaging 6.6 targets across 10 full games with Maye and 11.3 fantasy points, both top eight among tight ends. That includes at least eight targets in 7-of-10 games, and he's had at least 38 yards and at least four catches in 8 of the 10, averaging 52 YPG with games of six, seven, seven, and eight catches.
Books have not caught up to Henry, so over 31.5 receiving yards is a bargain (-113, BetRivers), and we'll touch 50+ yards at +270 too (bet365).
The receptions lines might look even better. Over 3.5 receptions is +130 at bet365, and he's gone over that in eight of 10 starts with Maye, so let's play the receptions escalator too: 5+ at +300, 6+ at +650, and 7+ at +1300, since he's hit that top number in 30% of his Maye games.
H.Henry o31.5 Rec Yds-113
1u
The Patriots were a tough watch in Week 1, but one thing that stood out watching the film was just how much Hunter Henry was involved.
Henry's eight targets led the team, and his 117 air yards were by far the most of any tight end in Week 1. He finished fourth in expected fantasy points among tight ends too.
This probably shouldn't come as a huge surprise. Josh McDaniels has been the guy designing the Patriots offenses that saw Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez put up huge seasons — and he was also running the offense for Henry's best season as a professional.
Miami allowed 13 tight ends last season to record at least 32 yards — including Henry both matchups, at 32 and 44 yards. The Dolphins also allowed Colts rookie TE Tyler Warren to shred them for seven catches and 76 yards on nine targets in Week 1.
Henry has been a go-to guy for Drake Maye. He's averaging 6.6 targets across 10 full games with Maye and 11.3 fantasy points, both top eight among tight ends. That includes at least eight targets in 7-of-10 games, and he's had at least 38 yards and at least four catches in 8 of the 10, averaging 52 YPG with games of six, seven, seven, and eight catches.
Books have not caught up to Henry, so over 31.5 receiving yards is a bargain (-113, BetRivers), and we'll touch 50+ yards at +270 too (bet365).
The receptions lines might look even better. Over 3.5 receptions is +130 at bet365, and he's gone over that in eight of 10 starts with Maye, so let's play the receptions escalator too: 5+ at +300, 6+ at +650, and 7+ at +1300, since he's hit that top number in 30% of his Maye games.
H.Henry 50+ Receiving Yards Yes+270
0.25u
The Patriots were a tough watch in Week 1, but one thing that stood out watching the film was just how much Hunter Henry was involved.
Henry's eight targets led the team, and his 117 air yards were by far the most of any tight end in Week 1. He finished fourth in expected fantasy points among tight ends too.
This probably shouldn't come as a huge surprise. Josh McDaniels has been the guy designing the Patriots offenses that saw Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez put up huge seasons — and he was also running the offense for Henry's best season as a professional.
Miami allowed 13 tight ends last season to record at least 32 yards — including Henry both matchups, at 32 and 44 yards. The Dolphins also allowed Colts rookie TE Tyler Warren to shred them for seven catches and 76 yards on nine targets in Week 1.
Henry has been a go-to guy for Drake Maye. He's averaging 6.6 targets across 10 full games with Maye and 11.3 fantasy points, both top eight among tight ends. That includes at least eight targets in 7-of-10 games, and he's had at least 38 yards and at least four catches in 8 of the 10, averaging 52 YPG with games of six, seven, seven, and eight catches.
Books have not caught up to Henry, so over 31.5 receiving yards is a bargain (-113, BetRivers), and we'll touch 50+ yards at +270 too (bet365).
The receptions lines might look even better. Over 3.5 receptions is +130 at bet365, and he's gone over that in eight of 10 starts with Maye, so let's play the receptions escalator too: 5+ at +300, 6+ at +650, and 7+ at +1300, since he's hit that top number in 30% of his Maye games.
Sean Koerner
Last 30d: 17-28-0 (-5.2u)
D.Achane o13.5 Rush Att-122
0.61u
The Dolphins were a complete disaster in Week 1, getting smoked 33-8 by the Colts. Achane was the lone bright spot, rushing 7 times for 55 yards, but he was phased out once the game script went off the rails. Miami trailed for a league-high 56 minutes and ended up with the fewest plays (46) and least possession (21 minutes) of any team.
Before things got ugly, Achane was playing at one of the highest usage rates of his career, which gives him a higher floor in this market than usual. For some reason, the Dolphins are 2.5-point favorites this week. I don’t agree with that (feels more like a pick ’em), but even if the Patriots were the ones favored by 2.5, I’d still expect Achane to dominate early-down snaps in a neutral game script. That’s all that matters here.
I wouldn’t touch his yardage because Miami’s offensive line is a mess and efficiency could dip, but volume should be there. I project him closer to 14.8 carries with about a 60% chance to clear 13.5.
T.Henderson o10.5 Longest Rush-130
0.65u
Henderson’s props have been creeping up ever since Mike Reiss reported the Patriots might shake up their backfield usage this week. I think that likely means that Henderson sees more work after playing just 33% of the snaps in his debut, with only five carries. Even in that small sample, he ripped off a 14-yard run.
This is one of the markets I want to get ahead of for him specifically. His rush + rec lines have already been adjusted to where they probably should be, but this specific number feels a little behind. I project him closer to 12.5 in the longest rush market and give him about a 64% chance to break at least one run of 11+ yards.
Nick Giffen
Last 30d: 27-98-0 (+5.9u)
R.Stevenson o33.5 Rush Yds-114
1u
7 carries last week in a loss in which NE trailed on 41 of 71 offensive snaps, while having the lead on just 9 snaps.
Would expect a much more neutral game script against a Miami team that struggled last week vs. IND
NE was also +9% PROE when traditionall Vrabel as HC and McDaniels as OC have been neutral or run heavy relative to game script, so NE could be in for a good chunk more runs overall.
NE runs a gap-heavy scheme under new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels
Miami allowed a higher YPC and success rate on these carries both last week vs IND, and last year than against zone runs.
MIA ranked 28th in run-stop win rate in Week 1 compared to the Raiders' 7th place ranking in Week 1 suggesting a much better matchup for NE.
Even with Morgan Moses questionable, I like this since the Patriots ran the ball 0 times to the right side last week on 13 RB carries, suggesting they want to run behind fourth overall pick Will Campbell quite a bit
Campbell led the team in run block grade, while LG Jared Wilson ranked 2nd on the team on gap runs.
All of Miami's right-side linemen or linebackers players received a run block grade below 60 in Week 1
Projecting closer to 41.5 yards
Firefighter Bets
Last 30d: 152-143-0 (+2.1u)
T.Dodson o7.5 Tackles + Ast+110
1.1u
Action Pod NFL Picks
Last 30d: 17-53-0 (-18.8u)
H.Henry 6+ Receptions Yes+650
0.2u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/wBCiOGTOBWb
H.Henry 7+ Receptions Yes+1300
0.1u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/wBCiOGTOBWb
H.Henry 50+ Receiving Yards Yes+270
0.5u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/wBCiOGTOBWb
H.Henry 5+ Receptions Yes+300
0.3u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/wBCiOGTOBWb
H.Henry o31.5 Rec Yds-110
1u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/wBCiOGTOBWb
H.Henry o3.5 Recs+130
1u
@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/wBCiOGTOBWb
Cam Is Money
Last 30d: 45-60-0 (-14.3u)
K.Boutte o37.5 Rec Yds-120
1u
The Favorites Podcast
Last 30d: 3-5-0 (-1.8u)
MIA -1.5+100
1.1u
Action Pod NFL Picks
Last 30d: 17-53-0 (-18.8u)
NE +1.5-112
1u
@sundaysixpack @ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/ZxcCww53zWb
Mjaybrod
Last 30d: 33-53-0 (-20.7u)
Over 42.5-115
0.87u
Backing 2 dogshit teams woo!
Sunday Six Pack
Last 30d: 7-5-0 (+1.4u)
NE +1.5-112
1u
@ChrisRaybon 2 https://myaction.app/uIOSWdrLzWb
Firefighter Bets
Last 30d: 152-143-0 (+2.1u)
K.Boutte o36.5 Rec Yds-115
1u
Kendra Middleton
Last 30d: 3-2-0 (+0.8u)
MIA -1.5+100
$1.00
Sandy Plashkes
Last 30d: 59-90-2 (-33.5u)
MIA -115
1.15u
Chris Raybon
Last 30d: 14-11-0 (+14.3u)
NE +1.5-112
0.89u
Markus Markets
Last 30d: 22-20-2 (+5.4u)
T.Henderson o52.5 Rush + Rec Yds-115
1.5u
Moneyline Hacks
Last 30d: 101-124-5 (+20.6u)
NE +1.5-114
0.88u
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Greg Matherne
Last 30d: 17-26-2 (+1.8u)
NE +1.5-110
0.5u
Moneyline Hacks
Last 30d: 101-124-5 (+20.6u)
NE +120
2.4u
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FTN Fantasy
Last 30d: 63-94-0 (-36.6u)
NE +2-110
0.91u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Last 30d: 129-150-2 (-28.7u)
Under 44.5-110
1u
Patriots vs. Dolphins Previews & Analysis
Patriots vs. Dolphins Props
Prop Projections
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Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Patriots vs. Dolphins Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Dolphins are 0-2 in their last 5 games.
- Dolphins are 0-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Dolphins are 0-1 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Dolphins' last 2 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Dolphins' 1 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Patriots vs. Dolphins Injury Updates
Patriots Injuries
- Christian GonzalezCB
Gonzalez is out with hamstring
Out
- Charles WoodsCB
Woods is questionable with concussion
Questionable
Dolphins Injuries
- Darren WallerTE
Waller is doubtful with hip
Doubtful
- James DanielsG
Daniels is questionable with ankle
Questionable
- Dee EskridgeWR
Eskridge is questionable with concussion
Questionable
- Ethan BonnerCB
Bonner is out with hamstring
Out
- Jaylen WrightRB
Wright is out with knee
Out
Team Stats
Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds Comparison
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Patriots at Dolphins Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
|---|---|---|
Patriots 1-1 | o20.5-121 | u20.5-107 |
Dolphins 0-2 | o22.5-115 | u22.5-108 |