Falcons vs. Saints Odds & Betting Predictions - November 23, 2025

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2.68% ev

Seriously someone take my phone

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Kellen Moore has taken a very run heavy approach in his first season as Saints HC and cranked it up even more in Tyler Shough’s two starts with an average PROE of -7.5%. I’ve actually been impressed with Shough so far and think he’s an upgrade over Spencer Rattler and the market now has the Saints as 2.5 point home favorites over the Falcons. They are 2-8 and have played with the lead only 13% of the time (league worst), yet as slight favorites they are projected to play with a lead at a +31% higher rate than their season average. That is about as big of a jump as you’ll see this late in the year. It sets up a game where the Saints can lean on the run and naturally limit Shough’s dropbacks. When he does drop back, the matchup gets tougher. The Falcons have allowed the 4th fewest completions per game. They blitz at the 2nd highest rate and generate the 5th highest pressure rate. Shough has seen his completion rate fall off a ton against both the blitz and pressure, and when facing the blitz he is pushing the ball downfield at a 27% deep rate which would lead all 34 qualified QBs. His aDOT of 9.5 yards would also lead the league. So when Moore has him drop back, he is making those throws count. They are downfield, low completion rate, high-variance attempts. That is perfect for this market. You also get the usual Taysom Hill package mixing in. He will take a handful of snaps under center which means there are a handful of plays where Shough has a 0% chance to complete a pass. That lowers his floor a bit more specifically for completions. I’m projecting him closer to 17.5 completions with around a 60% chance to stay under 18.5.

I can't believe we've really reached a world where Tyler Shough is an actual favorite in his third NFL start - and the Saints appear to be the sharp side! That feels like a bit of an overreaction to Michael Penix and Drake London being out, but Kirk Cousins is 2–9 ATS against opponents coming off a bye week, so I'll stay away from a side. I don't know who wins and honestly don't care, but I do know Cousins loves to throw to his tight ends, and he may not have much choice with Atlanta's receiving room all in the hospital. Kyle Pitts had a career-best nine receptions in his own game with Cousins earlier this season. Drake London was out that one too, so we've seen the script! This isn't even really a matchup play - it's just treating Pitts like Cousins' WR1 with no other options. Pitts has two other games of 7+ catches this season, so I'll start the escalator there: 7+ receptions at +280, eight for +513, and nine for +960, all at DraftKings.

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THE BLITZ is forecasting 0.19 touchdowns for KhaDarel Hodge. The oddsmakers' implied projection is 0.04 touchdowns, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 15% of the time resulting in a 190% ROI with expected value of $190.32 (based on a $100 wager). (This play is good down to at least +653.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz