Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Odds & Betting Predictions - May 27, 2024

Timberwolves at Mavericks

12:00 am • TNT

Minnesota Timberwolves

1-4

107

107 - 116

Dallas Mavericks

4-1

116

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Timberwolves 1-4	+2.5	+1.5-110	o207.5-110	+100
Mavericks 4-1	u207.5	-1.5-110	u207.5-110	-120

Monday 12:00 a.m.

May 27, 2024

American Airlines CenterDallas

MIN -2.5 (2H)-110

1.1u

L.Doncic u30.5 Pts-115

P.Washington o4.5 3pt M+500

0.25u

WASHINGTON

P.Washington o5.5 3pt M+1000

0.25u

FROM 3

P.Washington o3.5 3pt M+290

0.5u

P.Washington o2.5 3pt M+115

Big PJ bout to splash like 8 of these puppies

D.Gafford u8.5 Pts+100

Billy likes fading ex wizard players

MIN +1.5-110

1.5u

P.Washington o5.5 Rebs-120

0.5u

#Tailing @TheBMatt & @PropBetGuy

D.Lively o17.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-112

1.12u

Lively is over in both games this series, and 7/8 when seeing 23+ mins in the playoffs. He’s been the better center this series, and I expect him to see 26 mins again. Usually would not love a center vs Gobert, but truth is that Gobert is bailing out to cover Luka on the PnR, and Lively is getting his chances on lobs or putbacks.

P.Washington o5.5 Rebs-120

0.83u

Was talking to @GDAWG5000 about this earlier. Running Washington board backs. S/o @PropBetGuy for the reminder

P.Washington o5.5 Rebs-112

Over in 6/8 playoff games with both misses at 5, including last game where he still saw 13 rebound chances. Averaged 6.2 rpg as a Mav in 32 mins per game, but now he should continue to see 36+ in the playoffs. Had 7 in both reg season games vs MIN (when he was in CHA).

K.Towns o19.5 Pts-120

1.2u

MIN +1.5-105

R.Gobert o10.5 Rebs-135

2.7u

DAL -120

D.Lively o17.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-112

MIN +1.5-110

$1500.00

MIN +2-110

1.1u

Under 207.5-110

N.Reid u4.5 Rebs-129

0.78u

Let’s ride fellas @PropBomb @SBK5065

N.Reid u4.5 Rebs-122

0.5u

#Tailing @PropBomb

N.Reid u4.5 Rebs-122

Naz Reid is coming off a playoff-high 32 minutes, where he shot 7-9 from 3PT earning closing time over KAT in the 4th quarter. In any normal situation, he would’ve lost 6-7 minutes, so we much take advantage of his inflated line in some matter. Instead of fading his scoring, I’m looking at the rebound department. Last series, while Gobert/KAT would guard Jokic, Naz would play the free safety in collecting boards.. but vs. DAL this situation has changed. When in the game, Naz is strictly focused on closing out the perimeter so the #3 option PJ Washington doesn’t get hot. And check this trend out! Naz averages 3.8 rebounds on road games where he plays 20-28 minutes w/ KAT/Ant/Gobert all healthy. He’s gone under 5 rebounds in 12 of these last 14 games, including failing to hit this during any road game so far in the playoffs.

MIN +2-110

0.5u

M.Conley o20.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast+100

P.Washington o11.5 Pts-120

0.83u

L.Doncic o8.5 Rebs-115

A.Edwards o26.5 Pts-114

1.14u

K.Towns o20.5 Pts-112

$56.00

MIN +2-110

$110.00

A.Edwards o26.5 Pts-110

1.1u

N.Reid o11.5 Pts-110

K.Towns o19.5 Pts-115

1.15u

MIN +2-106

1.06u

Let’s go

MIN +2.5-110

0.4u

L.Doncic o38.5 Pts+Ast-115

2.3u

DAL -2-110

DAL -2.5-110

0.91u

L.Doncic u30.5 Pts-112

DraftKings 11:07.

L.Doncic o29.5 Pts-115

0.5u

#Tailing @JoeDellera

MIN +2.5-110

Under 208-105

K.Towns o19.5 Pts-115

KAT missed this in both Games 1 and 2 despite seeing tremendous volume. Additionally, Naz Reid had one of the best shooting performances of his life and as a result, KAT barely saw the floor in the 4Q. Towns has been better on the road than at home so the trip to Dallas might help him out. In the Playoffs, he has 20+ in 5/6 road games and averages 23.2. On the season as a whole, he has 20+ points in 72% of road games compared to just 38% of home games. KAT is a road warrior. I’m encouraged by the volume he had despite the lack of conversions in Games 1 and 2. A change of scenery should help him build off of his 29.4% Usage to start the series. I’ll grab KAT to exceed 19.5 Points.

L.Doncic o29.5 Pts-115

0.87u

Luka has been tremendous this postseason, but especially this series with 33 and 32 points in Games 1 and 2 on the road. He has seemingly left his injury behind him and looks as healthy as ever. Luka has thrived against the Timberwolves this season with 30+ in every game and averaging 34.5 in 4 games. He’s stepped up his game against one of the league’s best defenses. The Wolves simply have had no answer for him and he has been able to eviscerate the defense regardless of the defensive coverage. Luka’s rotations have been a bit different this series with him playing roughly 40 minutes per game for an even split in the 1H and 2H. However, it has been critical that he can be used as a closer for Dallas when Minnesota is most tired. I’ll grab Luka to exceed 29.5 Points in a critical Game 3.

MIN +112 (1H)

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/minnesota-timberwolves-vs-dallas-mavericks-game-3-prediction-nba-expert-pick-odds-sunday-may-26

N.Reid o1.5 3pt M-135

D.Lively o8.5 Rebs+Ast-125

Over in 5 of his last 6 games, racking up 9, 8, 11, 18, 14, 11 rebounds + assists over those 6 games. Lively is playing such a big role even off the bench, going to back to him tonight.

D.Lively o17.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-120

MIN +2.5-110

DAL -2.5-110

0.91u

K.Irving o8.5 Rebs+Ast-125

Featured Insight
The Timberwolves have averaged 52.1 points in the paint per game on the road this season -- T-7th-highest in the NBA; the Mavericks have allowed 50.9 points in the paint per game at home this season -- 10th-worst in the NBA.

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Featured Insight
The Mavericks have shot 38% from three (144/377) in close and late situations this season -- 3rd-best in the NBA; the Timberwolves have allowed opponents to shoot 38% from three in close and late situations this season -- 4th-worst in the NBA.

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NBA Public Betting

Mavericks are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Mavericks are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mavericks are 27-14 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mavericks' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 16 of Mavericks' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mavericks	48-34	21-20	27-14	32-18	15-16
Timberwolves	40-40-2	18-22-1	22-18-1	29-31-2	11-9

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mavericks	36-45-1	16-25	20-20-1	22-28	13-17-1
Timberwolves	41-40-1	18-22-1	23-18	29-32-1	12-8

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mavericks	13-9	N/A	N/A	37-13	12-19
Timberwolves	9-7	N/A	N/A	47-15	9-11

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 25th	@MIN	W 109-108	+6 W	O 207	DAL +205
May 23rd	@MIN	W 108-105	+4.5 W	O 207	DAL +160
May 19th	OKC	W 117-116	-4 L	O 208.5	DAL -180
May 16th	@OKC	W 104-92	+4.5 W	U 213	DAL +157
May 14th	OKC	L 96-100	-1.5 L	U 215	OKC -117