The Dallas Mavericks hold a chance to put the Minnesota Timberwolves on the edge of their season at home. After coming from behind in two straight games, Dallas holds a 2-0 series lead against the tired Wolves.
Here are Western Conference Finals betting angles, thoughts and picks, including how to bet Timberwolves vs Mavericks Game 3.
The Wolves Offense is Not the Problem
This isn't to say that the Wolves' offense hasn't been good. They are averaging 112.7 per 100 possessions — two points behind their 17th-ranked regular-season offensive rating.
But Minnesota's path to the Finals was not paved with dynamic offense and explosive scoring — Its strength is its defense. When analyzing the four units in this series, the ranking before the series was:
- Minnesota Defense
- Dallas Offense
- Dallas Defense
- Minnesota Offense
But the Wolves' defense hasn't been elite. It hasn't been bad; they're not suddenly the Pacers, but they're not good enough.
Particularly, you can dive down and find the minutes they're struggling in through two games. Guess what? It's not a Rudy Gobert problem.
With Gobert off the floor, the Wolves are giving up 145.6 points per 100 possessions. That's like if the Pacers were drunk with their legs tied together trying to defend. That's worse than the Wizards.
Naz Reid has gotten a lot of credit in this series for the threes he's hit. But when he's on the floor, the Wolves have given up 121 points per 100 possessions, including 128 when Luka Doncic is on the floor.
It's easy to point to the offensive struggles of Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards and chalk up two close losses to offensive struggles by Minnesota.
But if the Wolves are going to get back into this series, it has to start with them tightening up their defense.
An easy tactical adjustment would be to go to one big. Play Gobert his usual allotment, play Towns with Gobert in his usual allotment. But the Wolves would be better off with more wings and one big. Reid keeps getting caught in-between crashing the lob threat from Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively and the corner shooting threats.
It's just not clear if Chris Finch is willing to make that kind of adjustment.
The Mavericks Have Flipped the Script
The typical Wolves gameflow, which the Nuggets found out several times, is for Minnesota to go down early, then climb back in the 2nd quarter, take over in the third, and hold on late.
Instead, the Wolves have won both first quarters by six, the two teams have split second quarters, and the Mavericks have won the third quarter in both games. The Mavericks are the second-best team in net rating in the 3rd quarter in the playoffs and the best of the four remaining (the Wolves were the best in the regular season).
Minnesota's comfortable coming from behind, but not late in games. They need leads before clutch time, and the Mavericks have stayed within range for long enough to give that final push.
If Dallas gets off to a better start at home, and continues holding third quarters, Minnesota's margin vanishes to almost nothing.
Variance has Actually Gone Minnesota's Way
Despite the struggles of Towns and Edwards, the Wolves have actually gotten some shooting luck. P.J. Washington is 2-of-10 on "wide open" shots via NBA.com, and Derrick Jones Jr. is 0-of-5 while Reid is 7-of-10 and Jaden McDaniels is 3-of-5.
That's pretty concerning. McDaniels is shooting 41 percent from the field and 31 percent from 3 on the road in these playoffs. Losing his offense without replacement would be pretty devastating.
The good news? Karl-Anthony Towns is shooting 49% from three on the road in the playoffs so he might show up at just the right moment.
The Double Issue
The Wolves are an elite pick and roll defensive team. The Mavericks have thrown them for a loop by a) having Doncic and b) having him use double screens.
This is one reason why the Wolves tried switching in the fourth to slow it down, but then, well, you saw what happened.
There are counters but they're still going to leave Minnesota susceptible to either the lob or Doncic shooting.
That said, Minnesota would be better off just living with Doncic scoring. The Mavericks have actually been better with him on the bench than on-court in this series offensively.
Bets
Luka Doncic over 38.5 points and assists: I don't want to mess with rebounds here; Minnesota still is bigger and Gobert's rebound rate remains stellar. However, he's gone over this on points and assists in four straight back to the OKC series. The Wolves simply have no capable defender for him. McDaniels has done OK in first halves but Doncic keeps getting the better of him the later the game goes.
Jaden McDaniels under 9.5 points: As I said, McDaniels has shot terribly on the road. He had a great Game 1 and hasn't been great since. I'm willing to bet against him on the road here.
Karl-Anthony Towns over 2.5 3-pointers: Towns shoots well on the road and he's gotten great looks from 3 in this series and just missed. The Mavericks are daring him to hit open looks and while Washington's contests have been good, Towns is likely to have a bounce-back here.
Mavericks -2.5: For all the talk of how the Wolves could have gotten a split or won both in Minnesota… they didn't. That doesn't necessarily mean that the Wolves will reverse the script in Dallas. The Mavericks are comfortable and confident, while the Wolves are tired from the Nuggets series and don't have the matchup answers they need. I'll lay the points with Dallas.
