Spurs vs. Thunder Odds & Betting Predictions - May 19, 2026

SGA averaged 6.3 assists per game in the 4-game sweep against the Lakers, which is right around where my expected assists model had him based on his pass mix. As always with SGA, he only averages around 1.1 passes per minute, which is very low for someone who dominates the ball as much as he does. But that makes sense for a guy scoring 30+ per game since he’s usually looking to score himself first. The interesting part is when he does pass. Around 33% of his passes turn into potential assists, the 3rd-highest rate among qualified players. However, his teammates’ expected make rate on those passes is only around 51% because he’s typically generating tougher looks and a lot of 3-point attempts. The Lakers were allowing him to generate much cleaner looks inside, though, and his teammates converted 56% of his potential assists in that series. I don’t expect that type of efficiency to hold against the Spurs. With his current pass mix, I have him closer to 5.8 expected assists in this matchup. It’s also worth noting he averaged just 5.5 assists per game against San Antonio in the regular season (4 games). Jalen Williams returning tonight quietly matters too. SGA averaged 24.9 assists per 100 possessions with Jalen off the court this season, but that dropped to just 20.4 with him on the floor. I’m projecting SGA closer to 6.15 assists with around a 58% chance to stay under 6.5. Getting plus money is a nice bonus. And as always with SGA assist unders, the sweat is actually pretty straightforward. Anytime he gets the ball, we want him shooting or drawing a foul. If he does pass it, we don’t want the next guy shooting. And if they do shoot, we want a miss, block, or foul.

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Would play to +110

Join Discord for earlier access: https://discord.gg/HjKxYKdSUy San Antonio already went 4-1 against Oklahoma City this season, with 2 road wins in the series. This is a 62-20 team catching 6.5, backed by a 29-12 road record and a +8.3 average margin. Wembanyama gives the Spurs an interior swing at 25.0 PPG, 11.5 RPG and 3.1 blocks.

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#EV 5.85%

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