Nuggets vs. Clippers Odds & Betting Predictions - May 2, 2025

Kawhi has cleared this in 3 of 5 games and is coming off an 11-assist outburst on just 12 potential assists — an extremely unsustainable conversion rate that’s likely inflating his prop. I’m guessing there’s heavy public action on the over here. His pass mix suggests he should be averaging closer to 3.8 assists per game (vs. 5.2 actual) this series, making this a clear sell-high spot. I project this line closer to -155.

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Michael Porter Jr. is gutting it out and playing thru severe left shoulder sprain because- playoffs. Over the last five games, he’s averaged his usage has dropped to 14.6% (down from 20.3% in regular season) as LA Clippers have not allowed spot-up, letting Jokic play 1 on 1. Even with him hitting 3 3PM last game, his U2.5 3PM is set at -210 to happen. I’m also tackling on rebounding because he’s not even cashing boards, saving the pain tolerance for shooting and assists, because with Westbrook back in the rotation along with Jokic and Murray, he’s not looking to pass the ball. In games where he has a MAX 18% usage rate and goes under 3 3PM, he averages 17.4 PRA, with one of three misses coming from a 9 rebound game (U6.5 REB is -180). #PlayerProps

Nuggets 4-1 in 3q this series, where Jokic routinely plays the full quarter. The one loss was -2 in the 34pt blowout loss so still their best Q. +5.2ppg 3q for series. Clips are almost +20 net at home and winning all three other quarters but I feel good about 12 minutes of jokic as long as we don’t get the GSW formula from last night.

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Down from 17 rebounding chances a game in G1-2 to just 8.3 the last 3g, under half as many and converting under half into rebounds. It's not his fault. Great rebounder and he's gritting it out but that shoulder is gone, so we may as well play it. Has gone under 6.5 in 4/5 games this series.