We have a total of three NBA props for this Thursday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances in tonight's first round playoff games.
Continue below for my NBA player props for Thursday, May 1.
NBA Player Props for Thursday, May 1
- James Harden Over 3.5 Turnovers (+105, Fanatics)
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 Made Threes/Jalen Duren 10+ Rebounds (+116, DraftKings)
- Dennis Schroder Over 10.5 Points (+100, DraftKings)
James Harden Over 3.5 Turnovers
Nuggets vs Clippers, 10:00 p.m. ET
In Game 1, James Harden scored 32 points on 11-for-22 from the field. Since then, he has scored 20 points once and has one game above 45% from the field. Tonight, the Clippers face elimination, and it will need a big game from Harden to stay alive. Whether that happens remains to be seen, but one thing has been true in this series. As Harden's scoring goes down, his turnovers go up.
As a primary ballhandler with a 30% usage rate, Harden certainly is not immune to turning the ball over. In the regular season, he averaged 4.3 turnovers per game, and his career average is 3.7 per game. That has carried over to the playoffs as well, where he averages 3.4 turnovers in his postseason career. He has 26 playoff games with more turnovers than made field goals, including Tuesday night.
Denver does not have the stingiest defense, but it forces approximately eight steals and 12 turnovers per game, combining the regular season and playoffs. Nikola Jokic, Russell Westbrook, Jamal Murray, and Christian Braun have each averaged over a steal per game this season. The Nuggets have forced Harden into four turnovers in three of the last four games in this series and seven of the last nine meetings overall. He has cleared this line at a 70% clip this season, and I will certainly take those odds at +100.
Pick: James Harden Over 3.5 Turnovers (+105, Fanatics)
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 Made Threes/Jalen Duren 10+ Rebounds
Knicks vs Pistons, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Knicks and Pistons have had one of the most physical first-round series, and Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Duren have been battling down low. As you might expect, Towns has had the edge at the offensive end, averaging 21.6 points per game in the series. He flipped the series in the Knicks' favor in Game 4 with two pivotal buckets over Duren, including a stepback three, to give the Knicks a 94-93 lead they would hold on to.
Towns' go-ahead three in Game 4 was his fifth of the game. He made another big three in Game 5 to tie the game late in the fourth quarter, his second of the game. Towns has made two or more three-pointers in each of his past three games, and he is averaging 2.4 made threes per game in the series.
Stretch Fives have had success against Detroit as they were 24th in three-pointers allowed to centers this season. Towns has cleared this line in seven of his last 11 games against the Pistons. However, the odds are a bit juiced up to -168 on some books, so I am adding Duren's rebounds for plus odds.
Duren had just six rebounds in 25 minutes in Game 1, but that was also the last time Isaiah Stewart played, and he is questionable tonight due to knee inflammation. With Stewart unavailable, head coach JB Bickerstaff has had Tobias Harris defending Towns for extended stretches, allowing Duren to stay out of foul trouble. In doing so, Duren has played 32+ minutes in the past four games, and the Pistons are +27 on the glass in the past four games.
Duren has played a major role in that. He had 13 rebounds in three of his past four games. He is averaging 11.6 rebounds and averaging 22.8 rebound chances per game in this series. If he plays 30 minutes, I expect him to secure at least 10 as we cash this combo.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 Made Threes/Jalen Duren 10 Rebounds (+116, DraftKings)
Dennis Schroder Over 10.5 Points
Knicks vs Pistons, 7:30 p.m. ET
Dennis Schroder pulled off a rare feat this season in playing 20+ games and averaging 10+ points per game for three different teams. He joined the Pistons in February and averaged 10.8 points in 28 games to close the regular season. His fit in Detroit has been a timely one.
The Pistons promising young core of Cade Cunningham, Duren, and Ausar Thompson has made tremendous strides with Jaden Ivey sidelined. However, that has not come without youthful mistakes. The Pistons blew fourth-quarter leads that led to losses in Games 1 and 4 and tried to do so again in Game 5 before pulling out a win to extend the series.
When the Pistons need a timely bucket, if it has not been Cunningham, it has come from Schroder. He has played in many big games over the years, both in the playoffs and internationally. He has made several clutch baskets in this series that have halted Knicks' runs. That has helped him clear in three of the first five games in this series with 18, 20, and 14 points in the three Overs.
Schroder is averaging 13.2 points in the series, but we only need 11 tonight. He is averaging 27 minutes and nine field goal attempts per game in the series. That should give him enough time and opportunity to clear this line once again.
Pick: Dennis Schroder Over 10.5 Points (+100, DraftKings)
