Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - August 23, 2024

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Both Ryne Nelson and Brayan Bello have shown susceptibility, which bends toward a higher-scoring game. Nelson has a 4.35 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, indicating that he's allowed quite a few baserunners. His .267 xBA and .411 xSLG indicate his overall ineffectiveness against strong contact, with his hard-hit rate coming in at 40.7%. Bello comes in with an ERA hovering around the average at 4.08, but his WHIP is a bit troubling at 1.41, and he's allowing harder hard-hit rates at 42.2%. Moreover, he has been tagged for 19 home runs this year. His .261 xBA and .420 xSLG indicate that he can give up solid contact, too—abad combination for big innings. The bullpens have been strong at times but have shown recent signs of wear. While Arizona's bullpen sports a solid season ERA of 2.92, it has recently seen this rise in form to 3.57 over its last 3 games. Boston's bullpen has similarly struggled, with their ERA rising from the 3.55 season average to 4.43 in their last 3 outings. This recent dip in effectiveness could easily result in late runs that push the total over. Offensively, both teams are in solid form. The Diamondbacks lead the league with 5.3 runs a game, and even more recently through their last 10, have maintained an average of .257. Boston again stands just behind them at .264 during the same period, while they rank 6th in OPS at .768. Both these teams have gone through big-scoring series area total lately, such as recent series where the totals were 24-17 and 19-6. The defensive issues strengthen the case for the over even more. Boston's 91 errors this season rank them 32nd, indicating the potential for extra unearned runs that could help pad a higher final score easily. In addition, trends to the over exist with both teams, especially with Arizona's road games and Boston's home games. With how the pitchers have been pitching lately, up-and-down 'pen effort, powerful offenses, and miscues on defense, this has all the makings of a potential shootout. All these reasons point to it going over the set total of 9.5 for this game.

Nelson has been really good since July 1, with a 2.73 ERA / 3.36 xFIP, and 55 Ks in 56 IP. He’s over this line in 7/L8, with the lone miss at KC (and he notably cleared this in tougher spots vs PHI, SD and WSH). His K platoon splits are relatively similar, both over the season and this most recent stretch, but he’s fared better against LHH (.717 OPS allowed vs .802 for righties), which should work well vs the LHH heavy Sox. Boston bats have been hot, but they’re also at a 27% K% over the L2 weeks vs righties. 11/L14 righties have cleared this line.

Flat to -118 or 9.5 (+100)