Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 Major League Baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis. We will provide free MLB picks and MLB expert picks for today's games, ensuring you have the best insights and recommendations.
My projections for every MLB game on Friday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, August 23.
MLB Predictions Friday, MLB Expert Picks, Odds, and Preview For Today, August 23
Tanner McGrath's MLB Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Predictions, Pick, Preview
Ryne Nelson (RHP, ARI) vs Brayan Bello (RHP, BOS)
A Friday night, 7 p.m. game at lovely Fenway Park. I wish I could be there for this MLB game, especially given the intriguing pitching matchups.
But even as a die-hard Sox fan, I like the Snakes at +100 or better in this one. This game is one of the MLB best bets for today, considering the betting odds favor Arizona's current form.
Among MLB lineups against right-handed sinker/changeup mixes, the Diamondbacks pair the highest expected wOBA (.362) with the second-highest barrel rate (9%) and the fourth-lowest swinging-strike rate (8%). Against righties in general over the past month, Arizona leads the league in OPS (.922) and wRC+ (152), and the second-place team ain't close. It also boasts the third-highest walk rate (10%) and fourth-lowest strikeout rate (18%) in that split during the stretch.
The Diamondbacks are white hot. Everyone in the lineup is hitting. Following his first-half slump, Corbin Carroll could be a good buy-low candidate for next year’s NL MVP – he’s slashing .252/.342/.598 in the second half. Ketel Marte will earn 2024 NL MVP votes, considering he ranks third among qualified NL hitters in wRC+ (152).
They'll battle Brayan Bello, who has looked much better lately in starts against the Rangers (6 IP, 1 ER, 5 K) and Orioles (6 IP, 1 ER, 6 K). He’s re-found his changeup command, helping him force more ground balls and whiffs – the combination that made him so enticing as a rookie.
Still, I don't think I’m buying back in yet. The crux of this year’s issues (4.80 ERA) comes from struggling to command his sinker-changeup mix – he’s been consistently leaving his sinker too high in the zone. He’s also walking too many guys, having issued three free passes in each of his past three starts and 13 over his past 28 innings. He’s managed to stay out of trouble with timely ground balls, posting a 3.20 ERA over his past five starts behind an 87% strand rate.
Is he planning on putting ducks on the pond against the best sinker/changeup-hitting team in the majors? That’s a tall task, especially with how porous the Sox’s middle-infield defense is – they can’t gobble up the hard-hit grounders that Bello's pitch mix allows.
I generally like to bet the Diamondbacks with Ryne Nelson on the mound. He doesn’t blow you away, and I’m concerned that his advanced pitching model metrics have dropped significantly from his rookie year (117 Stuff+ in 2022, 98 this year). But he’s a league-average arm (4.35 ERA, 4.13 xFIP, 2.0 fWAR) who always gives the Snakes a chance to win. He’s been pitching well lately, too, posting a 2.82 ERA over his past eight starts – Arizona won seven of those.
Of grater importance, I love the Arizona bullpen with A.J. Puk in the fold. The Diamondbacks needed a lefty reliever with Joe Mantiply struggling, and Puk has been lights out since being acquired from Miami, allowing one earned run with 14 strikeouts across 11 innings in 13 appearances. Pair him with Kevin Ginkel, Justin Martinez, and Paul Sewald, and the Snakes have been the third-most valuable bullpen over the past month (2.0 fWAR).
Considering the Sox's southpaw-heavy lineup, Puk could play a huge role late in a close game. Expect A.J. to take the mound if the Jarren Duran-Rafael Devers-Masataka Yoshida trio is on deck.
Conversely, I don’t know what happened to Boston’s bullpen. Red Sox relievers are in complete free-fall, allowing a 6.36 ERA over the past month. They’ve accounted for five losses in the past two weeks. Zack Kelly and Luis Garcia are embarrassments.
The Red Sox have the bats to battle in this matchup. But the Diamondbacks have monstrous advantages in the bullpen and on defense – Arizona is a top-five defensive team. Plus, the Diamondbacks are likely still the better offensive team.
I think Arizona should be a considerable favorite on Friday. I don’t know why the Snakes are dogs.
Bet: Diamondbacks ML (+114, DraftKings) | Play to ML (+100)
Tanner McGrath's MLB Cardinals vs Twins Best Bet: Pick David Festa!
Andre Pallante (RHP, STL) vs David Festa (RHP, MIN)
Keep betting on the Twins, folks. Our MLB expert picks and MLB moneyline picks consistently highlight the Twins as a strong choice.
I (almost unironically) think we got a World Series preview earlier this week when the Padres hosted the Twins at PetCo. San Diego took two of three, but the Twins dropped 11 runs on Matt Waldron and the league’s best bullpen in the finale. I love both squads.
But back to the matter at hand. Among MLB lineups against right-handed four-seam/sinker mixes, the Twins combine the second-highest expected wOBA (.365) with the third-lowest ground-ball rate (38%). Against righties more generally over the past month, the Twins have posted a 123 wRC+ with the sixth-highest team OPS (.789).
I expect that’ll be a tough matchup for Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante, who throws a four-seam/sinker mix over 70% of the time, trying to force as many grounders as possible. For what it’s worth, he’s the best in the business, inducing a 67% ground-ball rate since getting called up in 2022 – the highest qualified ground-ball rate by seven percentage points during the stretch (Framber Valdez, 60%). Then again, he hasn’t faced Minnesota yet.
I also don’t think Pallante has been pitching all that well lately. He’s posted a 4.15 ERA over his past six starts, with the Cardinals going 1-5 in those games – they’re only 7-15 in Pallante’s starts this year.
Part of the problem is the bats. Over the past month and against right-handed pitching, the Cardinals have posted a .668 OPS and an 89 wRC+. The BABIP bug has bitten them during the streak (.264, 27th), but they’re still only slugging .370 in that split (25th) with 17 homers (26th) and 22 doubles (29th), which ain’t great.
Meanwhile, I’m a David Festa believer. He had two disastrous starts to begin his MLB career (12 earned across 10 innings against the Diamondbacks and Tigers), but he’s been lights out since, posting a 2.38 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 22 innings with a 104 Pitching+.
I love his bag. His fastball-slider-changeup mix plays very well. He has so much extension (seven feet) and ride (17-inch iVB) on his four-seam, helping with changeup deception and fueling a 42% whiff rate on the off-speed pitch. He'll be a prized middle-rotation piece if he keeps his fastballs elevated and his secondary stuff low.
Ultimately, Festa can handle the Cardinals. I’m unsure if Pallante can handle the Twins.
Minnesota is dealing with injuries to Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Brooks Lee. It’s also hard to gauge the bullpen matchup. But the Twins had an off day on Thursday while the Cardinals deployed their three highest-leverage relievers (Andrew Kittredge, JoJo Romero, Ryan Helsley) in a hard-nosed 3-0 win over the very good Brewers. The Twins will have more rested relievers, and I read a report that Buxton may return for Friday’s home game.
Among today's MLB games, this matchup stands out due to the Twins' offensive capabilities and Festa's recent form.
Bet: Twins ML (-136, FanDuel) | Play to ML (-150)
Tanner McGrath's Mets vs Padres Predictions, Pick, Preview: The Over/Under Best Bet
Paul Blackburn (RHP, NYM) vs Joe Musgrove (RHP, SDP)
Paul Blackburn’s velocity was down in his most recent start.
| Game Date | Avg. Fastball Velocity | Avg. Sinker Velocity | Avg. Slider Velocity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/2 vs LAA | 91.9 | 91.0 | 80.9 |
| 8/7 vs COL | 92.6 | 90.9 | 81.1 |
| 8/13 vs OAK | 91.6 | 91.4 | 79.5 |
| 8/18 vs MIA | 90.9 | 90.6 | 79.5 |
Conversely, Joe Musgrove looks very close to being back. After months on the IL, Musgrove has tossed 8 ⅔ innings of shutout ball since returning to the rotation. His cutter and curveball look much improved.
That said, Musgrove has faced the Pirates and Rockies since returning. The hard-hitting Mets are going to be a wake-up call.
The same could be said for Blackburn, who has faced the Angels, Rockies, A's and Marlins since moving to Queens.
The Mets (110 wRC+) and Padres (115 wRC+) are two of the league’s best lineups against right-handed pitching. MLB picks and MLB score predictions often highlight these teams due to their strong offensive metrics. They’re both patient, contact-based, pesky lineups that can annoy vulnerable starting pitchers.
After a string of cupcake opponents, I don’t think either Blackburn or Musgrove is ready to ratchet up the difficulty.
I quite like both bullpens, but I can’t believe the total is close to eight, considering the starting pitching matchup and offensive firepower. BallParkPal’s game simulation model projects closer to nine runs for this matchup.
It's also worth mentioning that PetCo's park factors have increased drastically this year, possibly because they removed the ivy from center field, improving the batter's eye. From 2021 to 2023, PetCo ranked 29th in park factor (95), but the park ranks 15th this year (100). San Diego's turned from a pitcher's park to a league-average run-scoring environment, and the market never caught up — few teams have hit more home overs than the Padres this year.
Bet: Over 8 (+100, bet365) | Bet to 8 (-110)
- The MLB score predictions for this game are based on data from the MLB season, highlighting the importance of accurate forecasts for bettors.
Tanner McGrath's Rays vs Dodgers MLB Best Bet: Lean On This MLB Moneyline Pick
TBD (TBR) vs Bobby Miller (RHP, LAD)
I’m looking for any way to fade Bobby Miller.
He’s a mess. He’s lost all fastball velocity (down to 97 to 99), so none of his secondary pitches are playing well off it. He can’t locate anything. He allowed eight earned runs and walked 11 batters across his 13 Triple-A rehab appearances before returning to the Dodger rotation, where he allowed four runs across four innings to the Cardinals with one strikeout, one walk, and two ding dongs.
The Rays are playing decent ball. Everyone left them for dead after the deadline fire sale, but they’ve won five of their past seven, which includes a home sweep of the red-hot Diamondbacks. They lead the league in bullpen fWAR over the past month (2.1), with Edwin Uceta and Garrett Cleavinger becoming automatic (two earned runs and 33 strikeouts in 25 innings). The rotation also looks strong behind Shane Baz, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot.
The Rays might be undervalued because everyone left them for dead. This team ain’t dead yet.
I can’t bet on the Rays until we get a confirmed starting pitcher, but fading Bobby Miller against an undervalued Tampa team at huge plus-money odds is very enticing.
Lean: Rays ML (+165, BetRivers)
Our MLB expert picks for this game will likely consider the pitching matchups, especially given Miller's struggles and the Rays' strong bullpen performance.
McGrath's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, August 23
Follow me in the Action Network App (@tannerstruth) for additional bet notifications. This article provides expert MLB picks and predictions, highlighting the availability of free MLB picks to help you navigate the extensive MLB season and maximize your wagering opportunities.
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+114, DraftKings) | Play to ML (+100)
- Minnesota Twins ML (-136, FanDuel) | Play to ML (-150)
- New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Over 8 (+100, bet365) | Play to 8 (-110)
- Watch: Rays ML (+165, BetRivers)
