(B365) Baz has been pitching better, but still have him nearly a quarter run above his 4.04 ERA, Johnson has walked more batters than he’s struck out. LAA proj LU 111 wRC+ v RHP, 122 L30 days – BAL 117, 116. Proj. def comb -16 FRV. Both bottom half of league pens either by L30 day estimators or BARTOLO

(B365) Civale all non-pitch modeling estimators > 5, Ray > 4.5. SFG proj. LU 116 wRC+ v RHP, 136 L30 days/ATH 136/125. Both bottom half of the league pens (SFG one of worst).

(FD) Twisted double dip in Washington. Getting the ugly out of the way first, I am in full agreement that the Phillies have a substantial pitching edge, both starting and bullpen. However, the Philadelphia offense is over-rated (72 wRC+ Road, 93 vs RHP, proj. LU 96 v RHP, 90 L30 days) and the Washington offense is really good (105, 123, 113, 109) and the Philadelphia defense is really bad (proj. LU -16 FRV). Littell doesn’t miss bats and Schwarber/Harper should get theirs against an average of pitchers likely around 5.25 averaged out through the full game (which is why I’m adding the over too), but offensive and defensive (23 FRV edge) edges are enough to keep this line a bit more reasonable.

(FD) See notes on WSH side

(FD) Career best 20 SwStr% last time out brings him up to 10.1% on the season. Proj. CIN LU avg 24.9 K% v RHP. Higher K-rate vs RHBs (24.5%) and expected to face 13-14. Gets a 10% environment boost (park/ump/weather).

(FD) Same 10% boost as Sproat, but has hit this number only 2x (25%) this season and none of L4 (7.3 SwStr%). Just an 11.3 K% vs LHBs (may face three 3x)

(B365) Despite having an ERA two runs worse, Kyle Leahy has slightly better estimators than Eduardo Rodriguez because he has been much better (3.71 SIERA) over the last month. ERod's 86.1 LOB% massively unsustainable. Pitchers have the same pitch modeling. Crazy number...85. That's ARI wRC+ on the road, vs RHP, their proj. LU against RHP and their proj. LU over the last 30 days. Not an average of 85. They are ALL 85. STL 103/103/112/127.