Jets vs. Jaguars Odds & Betting Predictions - December 14, 2025

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Stephens has only cleared this in 5 of 13 games, but an even closer look at why I’m showing value makes me like this even more. Since the Jets traded away Sauce Gardner, Stephens has cleared this once in the 6 games without Sauce. That makes sense, as we’ve seen the rate teams target Stephens drop. When Sauce was on the field, teams would typically shy away from him and throw at Stephens at a higher rate. Without Sauce, Stephens isn’t being funneled targets, especially since he’s been playing at a higher level stepping up without him. Stephens has also faced a very good schedule for a CB to rack up tackles, but the Jaguars have offered the 5th fewest tackle opportunities to opposing CBs, making this his 3rd toughest matchup of the season. He mixes in on the occasional run play, but ETN/Tuten tend to run inside at a higher rate, making it less likely for Stephens to be involved. I’m also projecting the Jets to face around 2.5 fewer rush attempts in this game, which further limits his chances. I’m projecting this closer to 3.9 with around a 62% chance he stays under 4.5. PrizePicks is still offering the Rivers Under 0.5 rush att prop and can pair it with this

Tailing @nick_giffen

Breece Hall Longest Rush under 14.5 yds (-125 at DK, MGM, 365) Going back to the Breece Hall longest rush under well when Justin Fields isn't QB. With Fields the starting QB Hall cleared this in 5 of 9 games, but he's only cleared this one time in games four games where Fields wasn't the starting QB. And it gets even starker when you look at the distributions. Just one of Hall's 55 rush attempts (1.8%) from at least 15 yards from the end zone have gone for 15+ yards when it's anyone other than Fields under center compared to 14 out of 132 rush attempts (10.6%) with Fields under center. Hall faces the Jaguars who have allowed just 5 runs of 15+ yards all season that didn't come from QB scrambles, tied for the lowest in the NFL with the Seahawks and Rams. I'm generously projecting him to stay under this 60.5% of the time, but reality is probably even lower than that.

This is all about the number and the trends. I just can't make the Jaguars a 13.5-point favorite, not against the Jets, not against anyone. I wouldn't have Jacksonville even a double-digit favorite at home against any NFL team. This line was Jags -4.5 in the preseason — is Jacksonville really a full nine points better now? The Jets offense has been better lately with Tyrod Taylor, and it's been far better on the road this season, though we may get Brady Cook making a debut rookie start at QB here. Expect the Jets to lean extremely run heavy as always, most in the league, and that's an interesting twist against a Jaguars team that opponents pass more against than any team. The Jets won't do that, and that could work out okay since Jacksonville is just 19th in EPA per play against the run. New York's one relative strength is also its run defense, which helps negates the best part of Jacksonville's offense. This game looks windy, making the run game key, and the gap isn't huge in either direction there. A heavy run game also means a shorter game and leans under an an already low total, making 13.5 points all the more valuable! Really, this is just a classic buy-low sell-high spot. Jacksonville has scored 25+ in five straight games. Teams like that since 2009 are just 66-93-6 ATS (41%). The Jaguars won last week by 17+ points as 7+ point underdogs; teams like that are an ugly 67-121-3 ATS (36%) the following week since 2010. Furthermore, 17+ winners facing 17+ losers like the Jets are 81-117-4 ATS (36%). The trends aren't kind to Trevor Lawrence either. He's just 9-16 ATS in his career against sub-.500 teams (36%), and he's also 44% ATS as a favorite in his career. He's only been favored by more than a touchdown twice ever and lost both times outright, and he's never been favored by double digits, let alone 13.5. Once a moneyline hits +700 or longer, it's usually a smart idea to take a nibble. Give me Jets +13.5 and sprinkle the +700 moneyline (the Score) in case New York pulls off a stunner.

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