Falcons vs. Bears Odds & Betting Predictions - December 31, 2023

Falcons at Bears

6:00 pm • CBS

Atlanta Falcons

3-3

17 - 37

Chicago Bears

4-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Falcons 3-3	+2.5	+2.5+100	o39-112	+125
Bears 4-2	u39	-2.5-120	u39-110	-148

Sunday 6:00 p.m.

December 31, 2023

Soldier FieldChicago

T.Allgeier Anytime TD Scorer Yes+290

0.29u

Boyd

B.Robinson Anytime TD Scorer Yes+140

0.25u

Under 39-110

$15.00

Under 39-110

0.55u

CHI -2.5-115

ATL +3-115

1.15u

J.Fields o53.5 Rush Yds-110

2.2u

B.Robinson o23.5 Rec Yds-110

K.Herbert o28.5 Rush Yds-115

CHI -2.5-120

0.83u

@The_Oddsmaker

V.Jefferson u12.5 Rec Yds-121

@ChrisRaybon

V.Jefferson u12.5 Rec Yds-114

#ConvinceMe

ATL +130

ATL +2.5-105

1.05u

CHI -150

ATL +3-112

CHI -2.5-115

B.Robinson o3.5 Recs+106

Under 38-110

1.1u

CHI -2.5-110

ATL +3-115

1.15u

Stuckey 2

ATL +3-110

0.6u

ATL +3-115

0.7u

Available at FanDuel. Layering this with the Falcons' moneyline to get upside in case they win. Atlanta has played well under Taylor Heinicke, who has averaged 0.15 Passing NEP per drop back, up from -0.01 for Desmond Ridder. It doesn't necessarily mean Heinicke is an upgrade, but he certainly hasn't been a downgrade. They're facing a Bears defense that has been much, much better since adding Montez Sweat, but they've also benefited from plentiful good matchups in that time. The Falcons are that, too, but it's more to say that we shouldn't over-adjust for the Bears' recent showings. My model tends to hate Atlanta, so I'm willing to trust it more when it shows value in them, as it does here.

ATL +136

0.3u

Available at FanDuel. See notes on the Falcons +3 for outlining why the model is high on the Falcons in general. AS far as the moneyline, I've got this game as basically a toss-up, so with the implied odds at 42.4%, you could easily justify taking the moneyline without layering in the spread.

Featured Insight
The Falcons have allowed a passer rating of 39.6 when the opposing QB was scrambling since Week 13 -- T-4th-best in NFL; Bears QBs have a 33.3 passer rating when scrambling since Week 13 -- 5th-worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
Bears has allowed their opponent to run 10.0% of plays in the red zone since Week 13 -- T-3rd-best in NFL; the Falcons have run 10.0% offensive plays in the red zone since Week 13 -- 6th-worst in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Bears are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Bears are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Bears are 2-1 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Bears' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Bears' 3 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Bears	4-2	2-1	2-1	1-1	3-1
Falcons	3-3	2-1	1-2	1-2	2-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Bears	3-2-1	1-2	2-0-1	1-1	2-1-1
Falcons	1-5	1-2	0-3	1-2	0-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Bears	4-2	N/A	N/A	1-1	3-1
Falcons	3-3	N/A	N/A	1-2	2-1

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Dec 24th	ARI	W 27-16	-4.5 W	O 42.5	CHI -218
Dec 17th	@CLE	L 17-20	+2.5 L	U 38	CLE +124
Dec 10th	DET	W 28-13	+3 W	U 44.5	CHI +136
Nov 28th	@MIN	W 12-10	+3 W	U 43.5	CHI +138
Nov 19th	@DET	L 26-31	+8 W	O 48	DET +320

Jamal Agnew
WR
Agnew is out with groin
Out

Tyler Allgeier
RB
Allgeier is questionable with hip
Questionable
DeMarcco Hellams
S
Hellams is out with hamstring
Out
Michael Penix
QB
Penix is questionable with knee
Questionable
Jack Nelson
OL
Nelson is out with calf
Out

Cole Kmet
TE
Kmet is out with back
Out
Jaylon Johnson
DB
Johnson is questionable with calf
Questionable
D'Andre Swift
RB
Swift is questionable with groin
Questionable

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Falcons

Total

Bears

307

Total Yards

432

Total Plays

5.2

Yards Per Play

Falcons

Passing

Bears

180

YDS

268

13/33

Comps/Atts

20/32

4.943

YPA

6.857

1/4

TDs/INTs

1/0

2/7

Sacks/Yards

3/28

Falcons

Rushing

Bears

134

Rush Yards

192

Attempts

5.583

YPC

5.189

TDs

Falcons

Turnovers

Bears

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Falcons

Efficiency

Bears

0/1 0%

Redzone

4/5 80%

4/13 0%

3rd Down

6/16 0%

0/1 0%

4th Down

1/2 0%

Falcons

First Downs

Bears

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Falcons

Misc

Bears

1/15

Penalties/Yards

5/55

22:46

Possession

37:14

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MatchupOverUnder
Falcons 3-3	o18.5-115	u18.5-115
Bears 4-2	o20.5-110	u20.5-118

Falcons vs. Bears Odds & Betting Predictions - December 31, 2023

Falcons at Bears

Atlanta Falcons

Chicago Bears

Falcons at Bears Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

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Falcons

Bears

Falcons vs. Bears Previews & Analysis

NFL Best Bets: Our Favorite Sunday Player Props

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Our NFL Best Bets for Sunday's 1 p.m. ET Slate

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Falcons

Public

Bears

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Last 5 Matchups

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