Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 29, 2024

Chiefs at Chargers

8:25 pm • CBS

Kansas City Chiefs

5-0

17 - 10

Los Angeles Chargers

3-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Chiefs 5-0	-3	-7-111	o42-108	-304
Chargers 3-2	u49	+7-110	u42-111	+247

Sunday 8:25 p.m.

September 29, 2024

SoFi StadiumInglewood

Under 36.5 (Live)+100

this should be 37.5** typed wrong, will adjust if lands 37

T.Kelce Anytime TD Scorer Yes (Live)+190

Bet with 3 mins left in 1H

KC +2.5 (Live)-120

1.5u

X.Worthy o48.5 Rec Yds (Live)-115

X.Worthy o47.5 Rec Yds (Live)-120

Tailing @rsura_

KC +100 (Live)

KC -120 (Live)

0.21u

Boyd

KC -130 (Live)

2.5u

T.Kelce Anytime TD Scorer Yes+155

LAC +7-115

P.Mahomes o1.5 Pass TDs-110

1.1u

T.Kelce Anytime TD Scorer Yes+220

T.Kelce Anytime TD Scorer Yes+170

T.Kelce o50.5 Rec Yds-110

KC -7-120

1.2u

KC -7-110

2.5u

Bettingqueen

D.Henley o8.5 Tackles + Ast+114

Coming off a 12 tackle game against the Steelers, and 9 before that against the awful Panthers offense. No Junior Colson - Henley should be in line for 95-100% of the snaps again. Chiefs coming off two games where they allowed the Falcons off-ball linebackers 19 tackles (Anderson with 12) and the Bengals 28 (Pratt 16 and Wilson 12).

R.Rice Anytime TD Scorer Yes+135

KC -7-115

1.15u

T.Kelce First Touchdown Scorer Yes+900

0.25u

@TheBMatt

LAC +7-105

0.5u

Under 41.5-110

LAC +7.5-115

Under 41.5-110

0.91u

@The_Oddsmaker

P.Mahomes u250.5 Pass Yds-115

0.87u

@The_Oddsmaker

Under 41.5-108

P.Mahomes u250.5 Pass Yds-115

KC -7-110

J.Dobbins u14.5 Longest Rush-117

0.85u

I’m not sure The Chargers are going to be in possession of the ball long enough for Dobbins to find a breakaway rush of this magnitude. The quarterback is already without full mobility, and the defense couldn’t possibly be more prepared for a Jim Harbaugh/Greg Roman produced run-the-damn-ball offense today. The Chiefs could absolutely roll, and there are way more trials in a 10,000x simulation of this game where Dobbins fails to get into open space for 15 yards than the alternative.

W.Dissly o10.5 Rec Yds-120

0.83u

LAC +7.5-110

0.45u

P.Mahomes o17.5 Rush Yds-113

We’re suspicious of the Charger offense in this spot, and that could mean the Chiefs dominate the time of possession or at the very least the scoreboard. We don’t mistake the Chiefs for a team that is designing run plays for the QB often, but with additional play volume comes additional opportunities to scramble. We didn’t make any special consideration for this narrative in projections, and he was still projecting over the number at a decent win rate.

P.Mahomes o17.5 Rush Yds-113

1.13u

LAC +7.5-115

0.43u

LAC +7.5-110

BIG BALLS BET OF THE WEEK presented by Tommy John

KC -7-118

1.18u

C.Steele o5.5 Rush Att-135

All Free analysis & VIP Picks can be found in the MoneylineSharps Discord. Link Below⬇️ https://discord.gg/zkcR4EnvbW

Over 39.5-110

Chargers have faced Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, and Justin Fields so far. Even with some key turnovers, the Chiefs have still put up 27, 26, and 22 points so far. Could see this move down if Justin Herbert can't go (along with Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater), but this one is still too low after accounting for those in my model.

Featured Insight
The Chiefs have allowed 10+ yards on 9.0% of carries to RBs since the 2023 season -- T-9th-best in NFL; Chargers RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 6.0% of 404 carries since the 2023 season -- 2nd-worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Chargers have gained at least 5 yards on 45.0% of first down plays this season -- T-10th-best in NFL; the Chiefs have allowed at least 5 yards on 50.0% of first down plays this season -- T-4th-worst in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Chargers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Chargers are 3-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Chargers are 2-1 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Chargers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Chargers' 2 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Chargers	3-1-1	1-0-1	2-1	3-0	0-1-1
Chiefs	3-1-1	2-1	1-0-1	3-1-1	N/A

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Chargers	1-4	0-2	1-2	1-2	0-2
Chiefs	2-3	2-1	0-2	2-3	N/A

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Chargers	3-2	N/A	N/A	3-0	0-2
Chiefs	5-0	N/A	N/A	5-0	N/A

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 22nd	@PIT	L 10-20	+2.5 L	U 36	PIT +122
Sep 15th	@CAR	W 26-3	-5 W	U 39	LAC -225
Sep 8th	LV	W 22-10	-3 W	U 41	LAC -155
Aug 24th	@DAL	W 26-19	+4.5 W	O 33	LAC +170
Aug 17th	LA	L 9-13	-3.5 L	U 32.5	LA -180

Hollywood Brown
WR
Hollywood Brown (shoulder surgery) headed to IR.
Out
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB
Edwards-Helaire is out with illness
Out
Isiah Pacheco
RB
Isiah Pacheco set to miss "real time" with fibula fracture, per Ian Rapoport.
Out
Rashee Rice
WR
Rice is out with leg
Out

Gus Edwards
RB
Edwards is out with ankle
Out

See more NFL Injuries

Chiefs

Total

Chargers

329

Total Yards

224

Total Plays

5.7

Yards Per Play

4.2

Chiefs

Passing

Chargers

245

YDS

179

19/29

Comps/Atts

16/27

7.125

YPA

5.828

1/1

TDs/INTs

1/0

3/17

Sacks/Yards

2/10

Chiefs

Rushing

Chargers

101

Rush Yards

Attempts

3.885

YPC

2.292

TDs

Chiefs

Turnovers

Chargers

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Chiefs

Efficiency

Chargers

1/2 50%

Redzone

1/2 50%

9/16 0%

3rd Down

4/13 0%

0/0 0%

4th Down

0/1 0%

Chiefs

First Downs

Chargers

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Chiefs

Misc

Chargers

5/40

Penalties/Yards

9/51

29:08

Possession

30:52

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MatchupOverUnder
Chiefs 5-0	o24.5+100	u24.5-120
Chargers 3-2	o16.5-122	u16.5-102

Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 29, 2024

Chiefs at Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs

Los Angeles Chargers

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Chiefs vs. Chargers Previews & Analysis

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Bets%

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