Raiders vs. Chargers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 8, 2024

#Tailing @nick_giffen

@TheBMatt

.tsa under system Overall: 186-99-3,65% (ROI:25%) Season:0-2-0,0% (ROI:-100%) … outside division unders early season Overall: 97-64-1,60% (ROI:17%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

Wow

TD show pick. Will update write up shortly

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice This matchup between the Raiders and Chargers is shaping up to be a physical, defensive battle, ideal for an under pick. Starting with Las Vegas, the expectations for this offense remain low, and Gardner Minshew II taking the reins doesn't inspire much confidence in an explosive performance. Minshew, who completed just 62.2% of his passes last season with the Colts, isn’t known for lighting up scoreboards. His supporting cast in Vegas includes a weakened run game following the departure of Josh Jacobs, with unproven RB Zamir White stepping in, and an offensive line ranked 19th by PFF. While Davante Adams is an elite wide receiver, the overall inconsistency of the Raiders' offense, coupled with a new system under Luke Getsy, signals a low-scoring output. Defensively, the Raiders have a solid foundation. They finished seventh in defensive scoring in 2023, allowing only 19.5 points per game. With Maxx Crosby and Malcolm Koonce anchoring the defensive line, the Raiders should be able to apply pressure on Justin Herbert and a Chargers offense that, while led by a talented quarterback, is undergoing significant changes. Herbert’s new set of receivers—DJ Chark, Joshua Palmer, and rookie Ladd McConkey—lacks the experience and chemistry that departed stars Keenan Allen and Mike Williams brought. PFF ranks the Chargers' offensive line 12th, but against the Raiders' defensive front, they may struggle to consistently protect Herbert, limiting their scoring opportunities. On the Chargers' side, new head coach Jim Harbaugh is known for implementing a run-heavy, conservative approach, which should translate into a slower-paced game. Harbaugh’s Michigan teams thrived on ball control and physicality, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him try to establish the ground game early with Austin Ekeler and neutralize Las Vegas’ pass rush. On defense, Los Angeles brings star power with Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, and Derwin James, but they struggled in 2023, ranking 28th in total yards allowed and 23rd in points allowed per game (23.4). However, facing a Raiders offense that lacks firepower, the Chargers' defense is likely to control the game, making it tough for Vegas to score consistently. Both teams feature strong defensive lines that should dominate the line of scrimmage, putting pressure on the opposing offenses and limiting big plays. The Raiders’ inability to effectively move the ball combined with the Chargers’ adjustments under a new head coach point to a low-scoring, grind-it-out game.

Good to +750

- Played at 7.5 in my discord but will track it here, as that is what the line currently is. Widely available. - This just is way too low for the role he should have. Edwards and Dobbins are the guys here. They've played under Greg Roman for a while now. Gus Edwards just isn't a pass catcher at all. In fact he might be the least likely RB in the NFL to be put in a passing down situation. - Rookie Kimani Vidal has been hyped up by some people, but he's a 6th round rookie and him being trusted in pass pro on day 1 with little camp hype seems super unlikely. Him playing a role at all here seems super unlikely. - Dobbins career receiving stats seem bad, but he's played with Lamar Jackson. Herbert we know will throw to running backs, as we've seen Austin Ekeler put up some crazy target shares next to Herbert. - OC Greg Roman also had a quote saying "He can catch some balls out of the backfield too, so don't sleep on him there." About JK obviously. - Have him getting around 3 targets, & around 15 yards through the air. The Chargers skill position WRs/TEs also are not good, which sometimes leads to more RB pass catching work.

VSIN play. Good up to o55.5. - [ ] Over in 4/4 starts last season - [ ] 2.4 yards after contact would have been top 5 if he qualified - [ ] Raiders should have the advantage in the trenches - [ ] Not much faith in the Chargers offense - Herbert coming off his foot injury, with a weak supporting cast

Split FG/1H

Fliff