Browns vs. Lions Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2025

There may be some value on the rush attempts prop for Joe Flacco. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.29 rush attempts, and the oddsmakers are implying 1.59. The model believes there is a 53% chance he records fewer than 0.5 rush attempts. If you can get the under at +150 or better, there is some great value here. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

TD 🪜

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Quinshon Judkins has been the lead back since his Week 2 debut. Ford has held the 3rd-down/2-minute role, with rookie Dylan Sampson mixing in on occasion. I’m projecting Ford to keep that role for now, but there is a chance Sampson starts mixing in those situations a bit more going forward, which would only help this under. Detroit plays man at the 8th-highest rate, and Ford’s yards per route run has cratered from 1.35 vs zone to 0.08 vs man. That tracks since he is more likely to see a linebacker spy him rather than sit uncovered for a checkdown. Justice Hill is the only opposing RB to clear 10+ receiving yards against them so far. The Lions also blitz at the 4th-highest rate; Ford’s YPRR dips there too, and he is more likely to stay in and block. His floor is lower if Sampson nibbles at 3rd-down/2-minute snaps. I’m projecting Ford’s median closer to 11 yards with around 60% to stay under 13.5. If you only have access to 12.5, I would pivot to under 2.5 receptions at anything -120 or better.

The Browns threw the Kitchen Sink at the Packers last week, shut down Green Bay's offense, and pulled off the miracle comeback late to steal a shocking win. It's rare to see huge underdogs pull off wins like that in back-to-back weeks, but there's a lot of similar reasons to like Cleveland here. That Browns defense is so good, though Jared Goff at home in Detroit has been nigh invincible too. Similar to last week, if the Browns do keep it close, it almost has to be an under — so that's our play. I probably don't have to tell you Cleveland won't score many points. The Browns have scored 16, 17, and 13 points this season and actually have not topped 18 points anytime in their last 16 games not featuring Jameis Winston. Per Clevta, they're an ugly 15-0-1 to the team total under in that stretch, if you prefer to bet that way. I prefer the game under, because this is not just a bet against the Browns offense but also one on their defense. Jim Schwartz's unit was one of the best in the NFL two seasons ago and appears to be back in peak form. Cleveland ranks third in Defensive DVOA through three games and best against the run, and it's not like it's been bad competition — the Browns have allowed just 204 yards a game so far to offenses led by Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Jordan Love! Detroit's offense has looked like a monster the last couple weeks with the run game dominating behind a great offensive line, but that line saw precious little resistance against Bears and Ravens defensive fronts that have been among the league's worst thus far. It was a different story against a terrific Packers defensive front in Week 1, when the Lions ran for just 46 yards and scored only 13 points. Cleveland has the league's best run defense thus far. Rookies Mason Graham and Carson Schwesinger have made huge immediate impacts, and Myles Garrett is matching his DPOY form. Browns games this season have seen 33 points, 23 points, and 58 in the Ravens game — but that one was at 30 entering the fourth quarter before things really got away. Detroit is on a short week after a tough, physical Baltimore game, and this is an emotional letdown spot after such a big win too. Cleveland's defense is good enough to keep this low-scoring and close.

There is a value opportunity on Jerome Ford's receptions prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.99 receptions, while sportsbooks implies 3.36. The model believes there is a 68% chance he records fewer than 2.5 receptions, so there is some value on the under at +128. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Walk in yo trap takeover your trap

@Stuckey2 https://myaction.app/JNv2zeOUXWb @wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/QiU46AL9YWb

THE BLITZ is forecasting 12.49 rush attempts for Jahmyr Gibbs compared to 15.37 rush attempts implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 69% of the time, resulting in a 36% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $37.27. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=inf8qq%22%3EEV Analytics!

Mgm

Full respect to the Browns, but think their defense is being overrated in the market coming off a nice showing last week.