Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds & Betting Predictions - May 18, 2025

Nuggets at Thunder

7:30 pm • ABC

Denver Nuggets

3-4

93 - 125

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-3

125

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Nuggets 3-4	+8.5	+8.5-110	o214-109	+260
Thunder 4-3	u213	-8.5-110	u214-112	-325

Sunday 7:30 p.m.

May 18, 2025

Paycom CenterOklahoma City

A.Gordon u2.5 Pts+290

0.5u

sorry

A.Gordon u2.5 Rebs+100

Just protecting the every game 3 reb future. Don’t trust him to stay out there or do anything.

DEN +265

0.38u

P.Watson o5.5 Pts+100

I.Hartenstein o22.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-121

1.21u

OKC -8-108

C.Braun To Make 2+ Threes Yes-172

0.29u

OKC -18.5+375

0.38u

Tailing @wheatonbrando

N.Jokic u29.5 Pts-113

1.77u

Under 215-110

1.1u

OKC -5.5 (1H)-110

Over 215-105

1.9u

Either team wins by 31++1800

4.5u

Increasingly worried Denver might just be out of gas with AG/MPJ in shambles and a shallow team on fumes. If OKC 3s fall and Denver turns it over, this could follow the script of a lot of game 7 landslides we’ve seen and turn blowout city. OKC has 31 wins this season by 18+, over a third of its games. 18 wins of 24+, almost one quarter of its wins, including 2x against Denver. 10 wins by over 30, incl by 43 and 51 this playoffs. OKC escalator SZN. -18.5 +375 and -23.5 +700 under alt spreads. 31+ +1800 under winning margin 7-way. Otherwise just take the longest odds you can find and let’s take a ride.

OKC -23.5+700

2.45u

Increasingly worried Denver might just be out of gas with AG/MPJ in shambles and a shallow team on fumes. If OKC 3s fall and Denver turns it over, this could follow the script of a lot of game 7 landslides we’ve seen and turn blowout city. OKC has 31 wins this season by 18+, over a third of its games. 18 wins of 24+, almost one quarter of its wins, including 2x against Denver. 10 wins by over 30, incl by 43 and 51 this playoffs. OKC escalator SZN. -18.5 +375 and -23.5 +700 under alt spreads. 31+ under winning margin 7-way. Otherwise just take the longest odds you can find and let’s take a ride.

OKC -18.5+375

1.5u

Increasingly worried Denver might just be out of gas with AG/MPJ in shambles and a shallow team on fumes. If OKC 3s fall and Denver turns it over, this could follow the script of a lot of game 7 landslides we’ve seen and turn blowout city. OKC has 31 wins this season by 18+, over a third of its games. 18 wins of 24+, almost one quarter of its wins, including 2x against Denver. 10 wins by over 30, incl by 43 and 51 this playoffs. OKC escalator SZN. -18.5 +375 and -23.5 +700 under alt spreads. 31+ under winning margin 7-way. Otherwise just take the longest odds you can find and let’s take a ride.

C.Holmgren o24.5 Pts+Rebs-110

1.1u

DEN +8.5-108

GAME 7🔮 HITTING AT 62% ATS🔥🔥🔥 LIKE = TAILING❤️🔨

OKC 100+ in 3Q+1200

0.2u

DEN +8.5-112

1.12u

DEN +240

0.42u

R.Westbrook u11.5 Pts+100

Under 109.5 (1H)-105

L.Dort o2.5 3pt M+122

S.Gilgeous-Alexander o31.5 Pts-110

0.91u

Tailing Sharp

N.Jokic o13.5 Rebs-130

1.3u

DEN +8-108

1.5u

I think having Jokic alone, is enough to stay within the number, whether Gordon plays or not. L20 years, a top 4 seed has won a game 6 by 10+ points eleven times and forced a game 7: 9-2 ATS in those 11. Most recently last year the Wolves did it to the Nuggets.

N.Jokic o13.5 Rebs-120

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-playoffs-best-bets-picks-predictions-for-sunday-may-18-qs

Under 213.5-108

J.Williams o24.5 Pts+Ast-120

0.25u

J.Williams o5.5 Ast+124

0.25u

DEN u102.5 Team Total-105

0.24u

Under 213.5-110

0.27u

OKC -10.5+120

0.3u

J.Williams o19.5 Pts-115

C.Holmgren o14.5 Pts-106

1.06u

J.Williams To Score 30+ Points Yes+800

0.25u

J.Williams o19.5 Pts-114

OKC -8-110

N.Jokic To Record 20+ Rebounds Yes+750

0.1u

N.Jokic To Record 17+ Rebounds Yes+245

0.25u

N.Jokic To Record 14+ Rebounds Yes-118

0.65u

OKC -8-108

0.46u

AG has been easily their second best player all postseason. Just a massive loss for him to be out or super limited

DEN +8.5-110

1.1u

J.Williams o19.5 Pts-118

0.85u

Mjaydub

C.Braun u1.5 3pt M+130

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A.Caruso o7.5 Pts-132

0.76u

OKC -8.5-110

Westbrook o6.5 FGA-120

0.83u

Minutes down to 20 and 17 in two of the last three games and he’s really not reliable but Denver is out of bodies with AG MPJ injuries. If Russ is out there, he’s shooting. Who cares whether he makes or not? He doesn’t. He’s gone over this number all 11 playoff games outside of the one he barely played with injury.

Braun o4.5 3PA-120

1.25u

He’ll play 40-45 especially with AG/MPJ banged up and he’s taken 6-9-8-6 3s the last four games with at least 4 attempts every game. OKC wants him taking this shot and will live with it make or miss.

Jokic o21.5 FGA-120

1.5u

In four competitive G7, Jokic has taken 23-26-26-28 FGA. Efficiency drops in game seven with things tight, but he is aggressive and keeps shooting. Over this attempts number four of the six games this series too. Should be more like 24-25.

L.Dort To Make 3+ Threes Yes+124

0.5u

Run back the home Dortscalator? Over 2.5 3s in 9 of last 11 home games and 60% on season, 4+ in over half of his last 11 home games and 37% on season. Don’t go too crazy with his minutes unreliable but if the shots fall he’ll stay on the court.

L.Dort To Make 4+ Threes Yes+310

0.25u

N.Jokic o2.5 Stl+Blk-145

0.75u

3.0 per game vs OKC, over in 10/13 playoff games, stocks up to 3.0 in G7 for his career too

A.Caruso o7.5 Pts-130

0.38u

20-7-10-13-10 outside of the OKC blowout and should see minutes uptick with G7 all on the line. 12ppg outside of the blowout this series with 10+ in all but one.

A.Caruso To Score 10+ Points Yes+158

0.79u

20-7-10-13-10 outside of the OKC blowout and should see minutes uptick with G7 all on the line. 12ppg outside of the blowout this series with 10+ in all but one.

OKC -4.5 (1H)-110

1H Home Favs off bad loss Playoffs Overall: 102-56-5,65% (ROI:23%) Season:4-5-0,44% (ROI:-15%)

OKC -7-110

Take the Fav in Playoffs Overall: 171-93-3,65% (ROI:25%) Season:15-11-0,58% (ROI:10%) Bounce back Overall: 81-44-1,65% (ROI:26%) Season:3-2-0,60% (ROI:14%) Blownout (Playoffs) Overall: 67-33-2,67% (ROI:30%) Season:1-2-0,33% (ROI:-37%)

OKC -4.5 (1H)-110

0.45u

Home G7 after a double digit loss 17-3 ATS since 2009. Good way to bet OKC if you want to invest and avoid the big full game number.

Under 213.5-105

1.5u

Don’t trust either offense right now to get the job done, so tried and true G7 trends. G7 unders after rd1 are 25-10 (71%), and G7 unders when over half the last 5g have gone under are 24-13 (65%). Daigs playoff unders 14-8 too (64%).

A.Gordon o9.5 Rebs+Ast-110

0.5u

Gordon Doubtful. Cash out if you can. Hoping for a void. LATE EDIT: GORDON GOT 10 REB IN 3Q🤯

J.Murray o20.5 Pts-110

0.58u

S.Gilgeous-Alexander u1.5 3pt M+134

0.5u

3PT volume just isn’t there. Running it back.

DEN +8-112

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NBA Public Betting

Thunder are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Thunder are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Thunder are 25-13 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Thunder' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Thunder' 43 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Thunder	54-26-3	29-13-1	25-13-2	50-25-3	3-1
Nuggets	38-43-1	18-22-1	20-21	27-33-1	11-10

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Thunder	46-37	25-18	21-19	44-34	2-2
Nuggets	48-33-1	26-15	22-18-1	35-25-1	13-8

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Thunder	8-3	N/A	N/A	64-14	3-1
Nuggets	7-7	N/A	N/A	40-21	10-11

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 16th	@DEN	L 107-119	-5 L	O 218.5	DEN -205
May 14th	DEN	W 112-105	-10 L	U 221.5	OKC -450
May 11th	@DEN	W 92-87	-7 L	U 228	OKC -278
May 10th	@DEN	L 104-113	-6.5 L	U 232	DEN -258
May 8th	DEN	W 149-106	-10 W	O 230	OKC -500