White Sox vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - April 7, 2023

White Sox at Pirates

8:12 pm • SportsNet PT

Chicago White Sox

0-0

9 - 13

Pittsburgh Pirates

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
R.Hill			4.76	7-10
L.Giolito			7.04	1-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
White Sox 0-0	-1.5+125	o8.5-110	-130
Pirates 0-0	+1.5-150	u8.5-110	+110

Friday 8:12 p.m.

April 07, 2023

PNC ParkPittsburgh

CWS -130

1.3u

L.Robert Jr. o0.5 HR+575

1.15u

Bet365 4:08.

A.Vaughn o0.5 RBI+170

0.85u

Bet365 3:46.

PIT o3.5-130

$25.00

L.Robert Jr. o0.5 Doubles+310

0.1u

Bet at FanDuel. Betting 0.1U on HR and 2B for each player I like today.

L.Robert Jr. o1.5 Total Bases-108

0.5u

.354/.402/.909 vs LHP last season Rich Hill is an auto-fade which I brought up on our Payoff Pitch podcast. This is one way to attack it

L.Robert Jr. o0.5 HR+525

0.53u

Bet at Bet365. Betting 0.1U on HR and 2B for each player I like today.

CWS o2.5 (F5)+110

$82.50

PIT o3.5-122

0.82u

PIT +120

0.6u

Again, keeping units low here until I'm more comfortable with my moneyline model. But each iteration of my model has the Pirates as slight favorites here. I believe it's more about being low on the White Sox than being high on the Pirates. The White Sox are a below-average team in their current state in the bullpen, on defense, and as a baseline offense (though they get a boost today against a lefty). The Pirates aren't great in any of those departments, either, but they don't really need to be. They just need to be relatively even as moneyline underdogs at home. I like what Lucas Giolito did in his first start, which was a tough spot, but things other than pitching do matter, as well.

Over 8.5-112

0.89u

PIT +125

0.63u

Bet to +123

CWS -134

1.34u

CWS -130

1.3u

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The Pirates are just 46-11 (.807) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season -- 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Pirates are just 15-37 (.288) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.

Elvis Andrus slugged just .284 on non-fastballs last season -- third worst in MLB-- second Percentile. Rich Hill threw off-speed pitches 63% of the time last season -- ninth highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total NonFB-- 95th Percentile.

Bryan Reynolds had a miss rate of 37% on changeups last season -- tied for 11th worst in MLB-- 10th Percentile. Opponents had a miss rate of 39% against Lucas Giolito changeups last season -- eighth best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 91st Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (981/2,074) since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total CB; League Avg: 16% -- 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 31% of the time (300/955) when he's behind in the count since the 2021 season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total CB; League Avg: 9% -- 99th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Pirates are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Pirates' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Pirates' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	88-74	43-38	45-36	29-34	59-39
White Sox	68-93	34-46	34-47	5-3	63-90

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Pirates	77-81-4	40-38-3	37-43-1	31-30-2	46-50-2
White Sox	66-86-9	31-46-3	35-40-6	4-3-1	62-83-8

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	76-86	39-42	37-44	35-28	41-57
White Sox	41-121	23-57	18-63	5-3	36-117

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 5th	@BOS	W 4-1	+1.5 W	U 8.5	PIT +129
Apr 4th	@BOS	W 4-1	+1.5 W	U 9	PIT +129
Apr 3rd	@BOS	W 7-6	+1.5 W	O 9.5	PIT +130
Apr 2nd	@CIN	L 1-3	+1.5 L	U 9	CIN +110
Apr 1st	@CIN	L 2-6	+1.5 L	U 8.5	CIN +124

Marco Gonzales
P
Gonzales is out with arm
Out
Ke'Bryan Hayes
IF
Hayes is out with back
Out
Johan Oviedo
P
Oviedo is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Endy Rodriguez
C
Rodriguez is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Max Stassi
C
Stassi is out with hip
Out
Yoan Moncada
IF
Moncada is out with groin
Out
Drew Thorpe
P
Thorpe is out with arm
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Giolito, P	77	4	3	7
LJ.Diekman, P	25	0.1	0	4
RJ.Lambert, P	12	0.2	1	0
RJ.Scholtens, P	58	3	4	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Anderson, SS	4-5	4	0	0
2L.Robert, CF	3-5	2	2	5
3A.Vaughn, 1B	0-4	0	0	1
4Y.Moncada, 3B	1-5	1	0	0
5J.Burger, DH	2-4	1	1	2
6Y.Grandal, C	0-3	0	0	0
7E. Andrus, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
8R.Gonzalez, LF	0-4	0	0	0
9O.Colas, RF	1-4	1	1	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LR.Hill, P	65	4	1	7
RD.Moreta, P	31	2	2	0
RW. Crowe, P	59	3	4	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1O.Cruz, SS	1-3	2	0	1
2B.Reynolds, LF	3-5	3	1	6
3A.McCutchen, DH	2-5	0	0	0
4C.Santana, 1B	1-4	2	1	1
5K.Hayes, 3B	2-5	0	0	1
6J.Suwinski, CF	0-5	0	0	0
6J.Suwinski, RF	0-5	0	0	0
7C.Joe, RF	4-5	2	0	1
7R.Castro, PR	0-0	0	0	0
7R.Castro, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
8J.Bae, 2B	3-5	2	0	1
8J.Bae, CF	3-5	2	0	1
9J.Delay, C	3-5	2	0	1