White Sox vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - April 7, 2023

White Sox at Pirates

8:12 pm • SportsNet PT

Chicago White Sox

8-23

9 - 13

Pittsburgh Pirates

12-20

pitcher		team	era	w-l
R.Hill			4.76	7-10
L.Giolito			7.04	1-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
White Sox 8-23	-1.5+125	o8.5-110	-130
Pirates 12-20	+1.5-150	u8.5-110	+110

Friday 8:12 p.m.

April 07, 2023

PNC ParkPittsburgh

CWS -130

1.3u

L.Robert Jr. o0.5 HR+575

1.15u

Bet365 4:08.

CWS -130

1.3u

A.Vaughn o0.5 RBI+170

0.85u

Bet365 3:46.

CWS -136

1.36u

CWS -136

PIT o3.5-130

$25.00

L.Robert Jr. o0.5 Doubles+310

0.1u

Bet at FanDuel. Betting 0.1U on HR and 2B for each player I like today.

L.Robert Jr. o0.5 HR+525

0.53u

Bet at Bet365. Betting 0.1U on HR and 2B for each player I like today.

CWS o2.5 (F5)+110

$82.50

PIT o3.5-122

0.82u

PIT +120

0.6u

Again, keeping units low here until I'm more comfortable with my moneyline model. But each iteration of my model has the Pirates as slight favorites here. I believe it's more about being low on the White Sox than being high on the Pirates. The White Sox are a below-average team in their current state in the bullpen, on defense, and as a baseline offense (though they get a boost today against a lefty). The Pirates aren't great in any of those departments, either, but they don't really need to be. They just need to be relatively even as moneyline underdogs at home. I like what Lucas Giolito did in his first start, which was a tough spot, but things other than pitching do matter, as well.

Over 8.5-112

0.89u

PIT +125

1.25u

Over 4.5 (F5)-105

PIT +125

0.63u

Bet to +123

CWS -134

1.34u

Over 8.5-105

$38.10

Fading Giolito and playing CWS vs LHP

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The Pirates are just 46-11 (.807) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season -- 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Pirates are just 15-37 (.288) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.

Elvis Andrus slugged just .284 on non-fastballs last season -- third worst in MLB-- second Percentile. Rich Hill threw off-speed pitches 63% of the time last season -- ninth highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total NonFB-- 95th Percentile.

Bryan Reynolds had a miss rate of 37% on changeups last season -- tied for 11th worst in MLB-- 10th Percentile. Opponents had a miss rate of 39% against Lucas Giolito changeups last season -- eighth best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 91st Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (981/2,074) since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total CB; League Avg: 16% -- 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 31% of the time (300/955) when he's behind in the count since the 2021 season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total CB; League Avg: 9% -- 99th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Pirates are 6-10 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Pirates' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 9 of Pirates' 16 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	13-19	7-9	6-10	4-8	9-11
White Sox	16-15	7-8	9-7	N/A	16-15

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Pirates	14-16-2	9-6-1	5-10-1	6-6	8-10-2
White Sox	14-15-2	7-6-2	7-9	N/A	14-15-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	12-20	7-9	5-11	5-7	7-13
White Sox	8-23	5-10	3-13	N/A	8-23

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 5th	@BOS	W 4-1	+1.5 W	U 8.5	PIT +129
Apr 4th	@BOS	W 4-1	+1.5 W	U 9	PIT +129
Apr 3rd	@BOS	W 7-6	+1.5 W	O 9.5	PIT +130
Apr 2nd	@CIN	L 1-3	+1.5 L	U 9	CIN +110
Apr 1st	@CIN	L 2-6	+1.5 L	U 8.5	CIN +124

Johan Oviedo
P
Oviedo is questionable with elbow
Questionable

Jared Jones
P
Jones is out with elbow
Out
Jared Triolo
IF
Triolo is questionable with back
Questionable
Spencer Horwitz
IF
Horwitz is questionable with wrist
Questionable

Josh Rojas
IF
Rojas is out with toe
Out
Ky Bush
P
Bush is out with elbow
Out
Chase Meidroth
IF
Meidroth is day-to-day with thumb
Day-to-Day
Drew Thorpe
P
Thorpe is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Giolito, P	77	4	3	7
LJ.Diekman, P	25	0.1	0	4
RJ.Lambert, P	12	0.2	1	0
RJ.Scholtens, P	58	3	4	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Anderson, SS	4-5	4	0	0
2L.Robert, CF	3-5	2	2	5
3A.Vaughn, 1B	0-4	0	0	1
4Y.Moncada, 3B	1-5	1	0	0
5J.Burger, DH	2-4	1	1	2
6Y.Grandal, C	0-3	0	0	0
7E. Andrus, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
8R.Gonzalez, LF	0-4	0	0	0
9O.Colas, RF	1-4	1	1	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LR.Hill, P	65	4	1	7
RD.Moreta, P	31	2	2	0
RW. Crowe, P	59	3	4	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1O.Cruz, SS	1-3	2	0	1
2B.Reynolds, LF	3-5	3	1	6
3A.McCutchen, DH	2-5	0	0	0
4C.Santana, 1B	1-4	2	1	1
5K.Hayes, 3B	2-5	0	0	1
6J.Suwinski, CF	0-5	0	0	0
6J.Suwinski, RF	0-5	0	0	0
7C.Joe, RF	4-5	2	0	1
7R.Castro, PR	0-0	0	0	0
7R.Castro, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
8J.Bae, 2B	3-5	2	0	1
8J.Bae, CF	3-5	2	0	1
9J.Delay, C	3-5	2	0	1