NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks: How to Bet Every Game, Every Team

Here's everything you need to know about NFL Week 6 odds, with bets and picks for every game and every team on the NFL Week 6 schedule. Yes, all of them. Every single one.

Why? Well, we know that many sports bettors are looking for expert predictions, expert picks and best bets every single day. But we also know that everyday fans love to bet on their favorite teams and the biggest games.

Maybe you're a fan of a particular team looking to put $10 down and have some fun, or perhaps you just want to get a little action on a game you don't have a good feel for but will be watching anyway. If so, regardless of your level of betting experience and comfort, I'm here for you.

For those looking to place a few bets for fun, either on your favorite team, against your most-hated rival or on a primetime game you'll be watching and need a rooting interest, this NFL betting preview is for you.

Here are the NFL odds for every game in Week 6, plus my favorite bet for each team in every game, and finally, my full betting picks at the bottom.

NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks: Every Game, Every Team

NFL Week 6 Betting Preview by Schedule

Sunday Night Football

Giants vs Bills Odds, Bets

• I'm not sure what the schedule makers thought they were getting when they put this on Sunday night, but it wasn't this. The Bills defense has been decimated by injuries with stars Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano, and DaQuan Jones now out for the season. The Giants are missing Daniel Jones and stud LT Andrew Thomas, and Saquon Barkley and Darren Waller are questionable too.
• The Bills laid an egg in London with a loss to Jacksonville, and now they return stateside without a bye. Teams returning from overseas without a bye have been tied or trailing at some point in the fourth quarter of all such 11 games in NFL history.

There's no football case to be made for this awful Giants squad, but just like in poker, we gotta play the man, not the cards. The number and the spot tell us to bet New York. Some of my favorite trends:

• Underdogs that have scored 16 or less in three straight: 66% ATS
• Underdogs with an average margin of victory at -14 or worse Week 5 forward: 66% ATS
• Teams at 20% ATS or worse against opponents at 60% ATS or better after September: 62% ATS
• Teams on an L5 ATS streak (58% ATS) that are more than 11-point underdogs: 13-2 ATS (87%)

On top of all that are the post-London trends warning bettors off of Buffalo. It's absolutely disgusting, but there's value on the Giants at this number.

The Bills continue to get after the passer, and A.J. Epenesa nearly won the London game by himself. Buffalo has 21 sacks in five games, including nine, four, and five the last three games, and Von Miller is back and starting to see more snaps.

The Giants line has been historically bad through one month. They're allowing an ungodly 47.7% pressure rate per PFF and are on pace to allow 354 pressures, demolishing the high of 272 for any team over the past decade. They've allowed 30 sacks in five games, a near record pace of six per game. Tyrod Taylor has an abysmal career 9.3% sack rate too, even worse than Daniel Jones.

I only wish we could play an escalator and bet 7+ sacks, which the Giants have allowed three times already.

Despite all the big Buffalo injuries and a loss, this line has risen three points toward Buffalo. It's just too many points, so I have to play the number. That post-London trends are so strong, telling us the Giants should score more than expected and maybe even lead in the fourth quarter.

And any moneyline this long is an auto bet. Since 2018, moneyline dogs at +750 or longer are 4-17 SU — so we're probably going to lose! — but have returned an incredible 76.9% ROI. Brian Daboll is 6-9-1 SU as an underdog, and this is his old team so he may have something to prove. I'll give him a chance.

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Monday Night Football

Cowboys vs Chargers Odds, Bets

• It's the Kellen Moore revenge game! Mike McCarthy chose to move on from Moore and handle play calling himself, a decision that hasn't looked so hot for the Cowboys. How will Moore's Chargers offense do against a Dan Quinn defense he played every day in practice for years?
• The Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing national TV loss, and 18 of the last 22 Chargers games have finished within seven points. There will be takes!!

The Chargers are on extra rest coming off the bye, which means the return of Austin Ekeler and Derwin James. Justin Herbert (13-6 ATS) and Brandon Staley (9-3 ATS) have been terrific as underdogs, and the Staley usually has a good defensive plan against high-powered opposing offenses.

History says this is a great spot to back a home underdog after a bye week — at least for a half. Teams in that spot are 48-28-13 ATS (63%), including 30-12-1 ATS (71%) as underdogs under three points. The Cowboys are wounded now, and the Chargers are rested and ready.

We all know how this goes for Justin Herbert in the second half far too often, but a first half play makes sense. Play the +0.5 at -110 instead of a +100 moneyline since a tie gets us a win instead of a push.

You just read the case for the Chargers in the first half. It's a great spot for the home side (even if this will feel like a Dallas home game), and it would be classic Cowboys to come out flat after last week's letdown and while everyone laughs at McCarthy for letting Kellen Moore go.

But Dallas is a bit underrated after the Niners loss, and the Cowboys should move the ball freely against this beatable Chargers defense. And while this spot has favored the home underdog in the first half, road favorites of under a touchdown are 45-30-1 ATS (60%) against opponents coming out of a bye, and they're better in the second half.

Justin Herbert is an awful 7-23-2 ATS (23%) in the second half with a halftime lead, and the Chargers are the only team that's failed to cover a second half this season (0-3-1 ATS). If the Chargers do lead early, it's a great spot to live bet the Cowboys. This is a way to bet that in advance at +580.

This is just too juicy a narrative to pass on. Cowboys trail early, everyone panics, and the Chargers Charger just enough for Dallas to eke out a win late. Dallas wins but looks bad, Justin Herbert and the Chargers choke again, and there are enough takes for 1,000 internet columns Tuesday morning. Everybody wins!

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Week 6 Full Betting Card, Expert Picks

(updated through Saturday afternoon)

• Colts +4.5
• Ravens -4.5
• Texans ML +110
• Seahawks +3
• 49ers/Browns under 36.5
• T.J. Hockenson 7+ receptions (+215) and sprinkle 10+ (+1425)
• Cardinals/Rams over 47.5 & Cooper Kupp Anytime TD SGP (+205)
• Giants +15.5 and sprinkle +800 ML
• Patriots +3
• Lions/Bucs under 42.5
• Sprinkle Raheem Mostert 2 TDs (+320) and 3 TDs (+1300)
• Chargers HT / Cowboys FT +580

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Games Completed/Already in Progress

London Game

Ravens vs Titans Odds, Bets

• In international games not involving the frequent flyer Jaguars, favorites are 21-9 ATS (70%). Overseas favorites are winning and covering.
• The Ravens are getting healthy as the Titans trend down. Baltimore returns key names in the secondary and offensive line, but Tennessee will be without WR Treylon Burks and perhaps defensive linemen Jeffery Simmons and Teair Tart, especially with the Titans on bye next week.

Do you remember the last time the Ravens played overseas? John Harbaugh does.

Baltimore's only other London game came in 2017. The 2-0 Ravens were blasted 44-7 by Jacksonville, the second-worst defeat in franchise history. Baltimore looked lethargic and lost. The Ravens had 20 yards on 20 plays in the first half, Joe Flacco finished with 28 passing yards, and Baltimore went on to finish 9-7 and miss the playoffs because of that game.

Harbaugh was vocally upset about the international trip and seems to be doing everything possible to avoid a second London embarrassment. Baltimore has been sending supplies in advance since before the season, and the Ravens flew Monday morning to London to settle in and adjust, versus a Thursday departure for Tennessee. Harbaugh knows his team is better and is not going to let London derail another season.

Lamar Jackson has not been good as a favorite of more than a field goal, and you already know Mike Vrabel loves that spot. Vrabel is 23-10-1 ATS (70%) as an underdog of three points or more. He has a winning record straight up in those games at 19-15, with bettors seeing a 63% ROI on moneyline bets in that spot.

It doesn't have to make sense. Just trust Vrabel as an underdog and play the number.

London games can be weird, but they're also neutral-site games, and I absolutely want Baltimore -4.5 on a neutral field. Baltimore is 3-2 but should be 5-0 if not for goofy losses to Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, so it's a great buy-low spot for the Ravens and a good chance to invest both in futures and present.

The Titans will struggle to score against Mike Macdonald's No. 2 DVOA defense finally getting healthy, and Baltimore is just better at everything. Add in the London history that should have this team adjusted and ready, and I expect the Ravens to get ahead early and roll.

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Week 6 Sunday 1 p.m. ET Games

Seahawks vs Bengals Odds, Bets

• Geno Smith is 20-13-2 ATS (61%) as an underdog, and Pete Carroll is also 61% ATS as a dog. Seattle has also won 15 of its last 18 games with a 1:00 pm ET kickoff, despite being underdogs in half.
• Seattle is getting healthy after a bye week. This could be the first Seahawks game with a full strength secondary, and LT Charles Cross has a chance to play too. Cincinnati is heading into its bye and could end up missing WR Tee Higgins and CB Chidobe Awuzie here.

Seattle ranks in the top half of the NFL on offense, defense, and special teams by DVOA, including top 10 both running and passing offensively, and now they're getting healthier after the bye.

Seattle's offense is the best unit on the field and should run on a beatable Bengals run defense. Cincinnati is getting too much respect after a get-right spot against a bad Cardinals defense. Seattle should dominate in the trenches. The Seahawks rank top 10 in Pass Block, Run Block, Pass Rush, and Run Stop Win Rate while the Bengals are 20th or worse at all four and still bottom 10 in both Offensive and Defensive DVOA.

The Seahawks are playing great football and the Bengals are not. Grab the key number at Seattle +3 and don't be afraid to play the +134 moneyline too. Seattle is flat out the better team right now.

The Bengals defense has been a bit disappointing and probably won't shut down a good Seattle offense. If Cincinnati is going to win this, the Bengals are going to have to score, and that should mean an over.

Joe Burrow played his best game of the season by far last week and even uncorked a few balls downfield. Seattle typically does not get great pass rush, despite the overinflated numbers after facing the Panthers and Giants, so Burrow should have another good game and light up this secondary with Ja'Marr Chase.

This was one of my Hot Read picks Sunday night, and there are still a few +3s in the market, so grab one if you're able. It would be just a lean at +2.5 or shorter, where I probably pivot and play a half unit on a plus-number moneyline instead.

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Colts vs Jaguars Odds, Bets

• The Jaguars are in an unprecedented spot, returning home from the first ever two-week NFL trip to London, and without a bye week to readjust body clocks after the schedule. Teams returning from overseas without a bye have tied or trailed at some point in the fourth quarter the following week all 11 games in NFL history.
• Jacksonville has owned the Colts of late, especially in Florida. The Jaguars have covered 14 of the last 17 meetings and won eight straight in Jacksonville against their division rival.

Jacksonville continues to underperform on offense, in part because the line has been terrible. The Jaguars rank bottom three in both Pass and Run Block Win Rate are are missing their one bright spot with T Walker Little out injured, and the Colts defensive line has been terrific. They rank top 10 in both Pass Rush and Run Stop Win Rate and return a healthy Kwity Paye to DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, along with LT Bernhard Raimann, to dominate the trenches.

Anthony Richardson is out, but the Colts are 3-0 when Gardner Minshew plays half the snaps at QB and this is a nice revenge spot for him against his old team. Trevor Lawrence is 3-7 ATS as a favorite (30%), including 0-5 ATS as a favorite of four or more.

Ridley made his Jacksonville debut against the Colts and started out with a bang. He caught eight of his 11 targets for 101 yards and found the end zone against this inexperienced Indianapolis secondary. Ridley had a dip in the games following playing hurt, but he had 122 yards again last week.

Since the start of Ridley's breakout season in 2020, Ridley has hit 100 yards in 10 of 26 games. That's a 38.4% versus the 15.4% implied we're getting here, and the absence of Zay Jones only leaves more targets for Ridley. You can play just the over 59.5 yards if you prefer.

I've had this spot circled since the schedule came out.

I'm betting against the Jaguars in this unprecedented spot coming home from two weeks in London. I bet Colts +5.5 on The Lookahead last Friday and again on The Hot Read Sunday night, so let's make it official. I love the spot, love the matchup, and I think the Colts go to Jacksonville and break the voodoo and get a win outright.

The market is moving against us on Sunday morning, with the Colts as low as +3.5 at some books, but you can still get +4.5 at PointsBet — and if you do, make sure you use our PointsBet promo code.

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Saints vs Texans Odds, Bets

• The Saints continue to struggle as favorites. Dennis Allen is 4-11-1 ATS (27%) as a favorite, and Derek Carr is 17-32-1 ATS (35%) when favored.
• Houston is finally starting to get healthy after a nightmarish opening month of injuries. The Texans should have four of their five offensive linemen back and are nearly healthy in the secondary finally too, with star nickel Tavierre Thomas joining both now-healthy safeties.

C.J. Stroud continues to look incredible. He had an excellent late touchdown drive to take the lead against Atlanta, even if the defense didn't hold up, and he could have another big game here. The book on Stroud out of college was that he struggled under pressure but was great when he had time.

Through five games, Stroud has a PFF grade of 36 out of 100 under pressure (31st of 32 starting QBs) versus 91 with a clean pocket (5th). Well, the Saints rank dead last in Pass Rush Win Rate, and Stroud hasn't taken a sack in three games. The Texans rank third in that metric themselves and should get after Derek Carr, who's still not playing healthy himself.

While the Texans appear to have the advantage in both pass blocking and pass rush, the Saints rank 3rd in Run Stop Win Rate and should shut down a Houston run game that has struggled mightily. Bobby Slowik's offense remains over committed to the run on early downs, but Pierce has yet to top 3.5 yards per carry in any game and has gone under this line in three of five games.

As long Houston isn't protecting a huge lead — and they shouldn't be — Pierce won't get enough carries to hit 50 yards.

This is a great spot to back a home underdog and sell high on a Saints defense that's getting a bit too much credit for shutting out the corpse of Bill Belichick and beating up on Ryan Tannehill, Bryce Young, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, and Mac Jones.

Dennis Allen and Derek Carr both have losing records straight up as favorites of five or less, with ROIs at 21% and 27% respectively on the underdog moneylines. I make this Texans -2.5, which typically translates to -150 on the moneyline, so I'll play for the +110 win here rather than a +1.5 cover.

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Vikings vs Bears Odds, Bets

• Both offenses are missing top weapons. Justin Jefferson will miss his first game ever after going on IR with a hamstring injury. The Bears are super thin at RB and will be without both Khalil Herbert and rookie Roschon Johnson.
• Justin Fields (8-17-1 ATS) and Matt Eberflus (6-12-1 ATS) have been poor as underdogs, including 1-6 and 1-4 ATS respectively as division underdogs.

Jefferson may be out, but you can bet Kirk Cousins will still be slinging it against the second worst pass defense by DVOA. Hockenson has at least five catches in 12 of his 16 games with the Vikings, and he's had at least seven receptions in half of them.

Hockenson will effectively act as Minnesota's WR1 with Jefferson out, and Jefferson averaged 11.8 targets and 8.3 catches in healthy games this season. The Bears allow 7.8 catches and 58.8 yards to opposing tight ends, both bottom 10 in the league. Expect Hockenson to have a big game.

I grew up a diehard Vikings fan in North Dakota but moved to Chicagoland in fall 2001, where I've lived ever since. The first home Bears game that year came against Minnesota, and my Vikings lost.

They've lost 16 of 22 games since I moved here. In fact, Chicago had either won outright or lost by three or less in 20 straight Minnesota visits since my arrival, until the last two years. That's all Chicago has to do here — win outright, or lose by three or less. Chicago is 16-6 ATS since 2001 when Minnesota visits.

I wouldn't dare bet the Vikings as road favorites in Chicago, but I'll bet on Hockenson as Minnesota's new WR1. This line seems a full reception too low, so I love getting it at +215.

Hockenson does have double-digit catches twice with the Vikings — and Jefferson did that once already too as WR1. Sprinkle  10+ catches at +1425 (Bet365) if you like.

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Panthers vs Dolphins Odds, Bets

• The Dolphins have the No. 1 DVOA offense. The Panthers defense ranks 29th, including dead last against the run. Miami might be able to name its score.
• It won't help that Carolina is missing star LB Shaq Thompson, top corner Jaycee Horn, and both safeties. Miami is without rookie RB De'Von Achane and its two best offensive linemen.

The books finally caught up to our beloved Adam Thielen receptions overs, so let's just play the trends and bet the long underdog.

Teams at 20% ATS or worse after Week 5 are 58% ATS. Against opponents at 75% ATS or better, that number leaps to 27-9-1 ATS (75%), including 19-3 ATS (86%) as at least a four-point underdog. In Weeks 6 and 7, underdogs against 80-to-99% ATS teams are 69% ATS.

That's a lot of numbers, but they all say the same thing: this is the part of the season when good teams look better than they actually are and bad teams feel even worse. Bet on regression.

As fun as Miami's speedsters have been in the passing game, the rushing attack has been the real revelation this season. Carolina has the worst run defense in the league by DVOA, so the Dolphins should run wild even with Terron Armstead and Connor Williams out.

Four times already, a Miami RB has scored multiple TDs — twice each by Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. Since the rookie is out injured, Mostert should get the lion's share of the work. He's the NFL favorite to score a TD this week at -225, implied 69%, so why not bet him to get a second? He's found the end zone in four of five games and Miami might not even need to pass this game.

Miami looks like the right Survivor pick this week, but I'm not too interested in betting. I'll sprinkle the Mostert two TDs at +320, and if I do, I can't help but play three TDs too at +1300 (FanDuel).

Panthers Fans: Betting is coming to NC soon. Check out our state review page for the latest North Carolina sports betting news!

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49ers vs Browns Odds, Bets

• Half of the battle should be something to behold. The 49ers rank 2nd on offense by DVOA, with the Browns 1st in defense. By passing alone, its first vs. first. This is the test for the 49ers offense we wanted from Dallas last week.
• The other half of the battle could be ugly. Deshaun Watson remains out, so Cleveland will start P.J. Walker at QB. Walker will be without his starting LG, RT, and possibly C, and he's thrown 11 interceptions to just five TDs in his career — though he's notably 5-2 ATS and 4-3 SU.
• Before all the injury news, the 49ers were -3 with a total at 41.5. Now it's 49ers -10 with a total at 36.5 and dropping fast.

This is an obvious letdown spot after last week's huge win over the Cowboys, on the road facing a third-string QB. This Browns defense is the real deal, so expect Kyle Shanahan to simplify things and keep it easy on Brock Purdy and the offense.

When the total gets this low in the modern era, it's usually for good reason. Totals at 38 or below that dropped at least 4.5 from open are 27-11-1 to the under (71%), including 15 unders in the last 18. Basically, books realize games are going under but can't drop the line far enough. Games at 37 or below are 19-5 to the under (79%) since November 2019, with four of the five misses at 38, 39, 40, and 41.

This is a classic sell-high spot for San Francisco after such a big win, and the Browns defense should be up to the task, but it's hard to buy too much on this offense. The 49ers are coming off a three-game home stand while the Browns are at home after the bye.

Home underdogs coming off the bye week are 48-28-13 ATS (63%) in the first half, and home underdogs against teams off 3+ game home stands are 35-18-1 ATS (66%). It's too much to ask this Cleveland defense to hold up all 60 minutes, but they're good enough to hang until at least halftime.

How low can you go? Not enough. This game looks windy, which only helps the under, and Kevin Stefanski unders with a total below 44 are 12-6 (67%). When the total gets this low, books are practically begging us to take the over. Don't fall for the trap. Just bet under on the highest number you can find.

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Commanders vs Falcons Odds, Bets

• On offense, Washington and Atlanta rank 20th and 21st by DVOA. On defense, they rank 25th and 21st. Both are better running than passing; both are better defending the run. A standard -2.5 line for the home team reflects the same thing — these teams are remarkably even.
• Desmond Ridder somehow remains unbeaten at home. In college and in the pros, he's a perfect 31-0.

Ridder may be unbeaten at home, but he's not doing it in the first half. Game after game, Ridder has struggled out of the gates early before finding his footing late. For his career, he has 18 sacks and three interceptions in the first half versus seven sacks and no picks in the second half.

Ridder is 0-9 ATS in the first half for his career. His team has led at the half just once, by a single point. Washington's pass rush is looking good with Chase Young finally healthy, and Atlanta's pass blocking has struggled. Bet on another slow Ridder start.

With these teams so even, it's tough to get excited about betting a traditional spread or money line on what feels like too much of a coin flip. Instead, let's lean into the Ridder trends — he stinks in the first half but somehow always wins at home. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in second halves this season.

Ridder has played five home games as a professional. In all five, he's failed to cover in the first half but come through to win when it mattered most. Why mess with what works?

This is too much of a toss-up to get too invested. I prefer Atlanta but have plenty of Falcons futures already so I'll just be happy if the Falcons keep Ridder's home streak alive with a win.

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Week 6 Sunday 4 p.m. ET Games

Lions vs Buccaneers Odds, Bets

• The Bucs are rested coming off a bye week, but the Lions are really banged-up, especially their terrific rookie class. CB Brian Branch and RB Jahmyr Gibbs are out, and TE Sam LaPorta is questionable. Detroit is also missing another corner and safety, and both offensive guards are playing hurt.
• Both teams rank top-six in Defensive DVOA, and the Lions are 4th on offense. Tampa Bay's offense is the one weak link. Could this be the spot where Baker Mayfield finally gets exposed?

Bucs games have been low scoring, with all four Tampa Bay games at 44 points or below and averaging 38.0 PPG. The Bucs want to slow this one down and battle in the trenches, and the Lions are now a team that's happy to do that. With both defenses so good and better than the offenses, an under makes sense.

Dan Campbell games with a total below 44 are 7-4 to the under (64%), and Baker Mayfield games are 15-7  (68%) in that spot. Games with road favorites have gone under 61% of the time the last two seasons. This fits the script for a tight, low-scoring game.

The Bucs continue to be a bit underrated and have a real chance to steal a big win with a significant rest and health advantage coming out of the bye week. Historically this has been a great spot to back home underdogs — at least in the first half.

Home underdogs after a bye week are 48-28-13 ATS (63%) in the first half, including 16-7 ATS (70%) after a win. Can Tampa Bay hold up all game? That part remains to be seen. We just need them to hang for a half.

I liked the under initially and like it even more with all the Detroit injuries, but we missed the best of the line since this was at 45.5 last Sunday, before coming down to 42.5 earlier this week. I played a half unit assuming it might drop below key total numbers of 42 and 41, but on Sunday morning, you can actually get the slightly better line of 43.5 at FanDuel — and if you do, make sure to get the most out of your bet with our FanDuel promo code.

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Eagles vs Jets Odds, Bets

• The Eagles went 14-3, made the Super Bowl, and started the new season 5-0. The Jets started it by losing Aaron Rodgers on their fourth play. Life isn't fair.
• Points continue to be at a premium in Jets games, averaging just 39.6 PPG combined. Last week's 51 points were the first time over 43 all season.
• Then again, points could be a bit easier for Philadelphia after news that both star Jets corners, Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, will miss this game injured. Stock up for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

The Eagles should dominate in the trenches, like usual. Philadelphia ranks top 10 in both Pass and Run Block Win Rate offensively, top 10 in both Pass Rush and Run Stop Win Rate defensively. The Eagles are built to dominate subpar opponents in the trenches, and the Jets are a subpar opponent with a struggling, makeshift offensive line.

New York's defense ranks around league average by DVOA, but the Jets' reputation has deflated this game's total and left value on Philly's team total. The Eagles have scored at least 24 points in 19 of 25 games since the start of last season (76%), and two of those misses were in a loss. Unless you think the Eagles lose, expect them to find 24 points one way or another.

The Eagles may be better, but they're not that much better. Philadelphia is winning by only 7.6 PPG against a soft schedule, not pulling away to win huge like it often did last year. The Jets have made their formula clear at this point — play great defense, hang around, and hope Zach Wilson can make a few plays.

Jets games have finished at 41 or fewer points in 14 of the last 17 (82%), and Zach Wilson games with a total below 44 are 10-6 to the under (64%). Jalen Hurts hasn't looked quite the same and the Eagles are a bit overvalued in the market. The Jets can hang around, like they usually do.

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Patriots vs Raiders Odds, Bets

• It's been a long time since things have looked this bleak for the Patriots after back-to-back losses by a combined score of 72-3. Bill Belichick has failed to cover eight straight times as an underdog, and Mac Jones is 3-12 ATS as a dog and fighting for his career.
• Bill Belichick faces former assistant Josh McDaniels. Surprisingly, Belichick is only 18-20 against former players and assistants as head coaches, and he's won just three of his last 11 against former assistants.

Unfortunately for bettors, value is often highest when we least want to back an ugly team. This feels like the nadir for the Patriots, with a litany of trends telling us there's value on an underdog that looks this bad. Some of my favorites:

• Underdogs that have scored 16 or less in three straight: 66% ATS
• Road teams after failing to cover by 24 or more: 62% ATS
• Underdogs of 3 or less that just lost by 11+ as favorites: 61% ATS
• Underdogs with an average margin of victory at -14 or worse Week 5 forward: 66% ATS

There are Bill Belichick trends too — 12-2 ATS (86%) after failing to cover by 22+ and 43-15-1 ATS (74%) as anything under -7.5 after a loss — but I'm not convinced they apply anymore at this stage of Belichick's career. But those trends above are all team-agnostic. We don't have to buy New England or Belichick to play them as underdogs.

Crosby is one of the few bright spots on this Raiders team, and he continues to be brilliant. He's second in the NFL with 29 pressures and has recorded a sack in four of five games this season after having one in nine of 17 a season ago.

The Patriots offensive line has been an absolute mess, with injuries and ever-changing lineups. Crosby should have his way and live in New England's backfield all game, like usual.

Despite everything, I still think the Patriots are the better team, and the barrage of trends tell us there's value on New England. Hold your nose, swallow hard, and play the spot.

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Cardinals vs Rams Odds, Bets

• These teams came into the year overlooked by most, which makes it all the more surprising that both teams rank top 10 in Offensive DVOA. Sean McVay and Drew Petzing are doing wonders with these offenses, but both defenses rank bottom 7 in Defensive DVOA.
• The Rams have won 11 of 13 against the Cardinals, though much of that was McVay owning Kliff Kingsbury.

This game looked over all the way, and I was eyeballing the over 46 on Sunday night as the Hot Read but didn't trust my instincts. Now the line has risen with money coming in on the over, but I still like it.

I'm loving both of these offenses, but the defenses stink. I think we could get a shootout from two teams with little to lose. Three of five Cardinals games have seen at least 51 points, and the two games under that were because Dallas and Washington's offenses no-showed. Arizona games are averaging 48.8 PPG.

Cooper Kupp is back, and he looks like he didn't skip a beat. Kupp had eight catches for 118 yards in his season debut, but he didn't find the end zone.

Since Matthew Stafford joined the Rams, Kupp has 29 touchdowns in 31 games, including the playoffs. He's found the end zone in 21 of those 31 games (68%), so we're getting serious value at -120 (implied 55%), especially with Arizona missing both safeties.

I'm still not sure I have a great read on either of these teams, but I love the offenses and I'm expecting fireworks here. A Kupp TD fits the script in what should be a high-scoring division game, so I'll play both together as a Same Game Parlay at FanDuel at +205.

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