2023-24 NFL MVP Odds Tracker: Tua Tagavailoa is Favored to Win MVP
|Jalen Hurts - Philadelphia Eagles||+150|
|Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs||+350|
|Lamar Jackson - Baltimore Ravens||+600|
|Dak Prescott - Dallas Cowboys||+600|
|Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins||+800|
|Brock Purdy - San Francisco 49ers||+1400|
|Josh Allen - Buffalo Bills||+2000|
|Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars||+2000|
|C.J. Stroud - Houston Texans||+2000|
|Christian McCaffrey - San Francisco 49ers||+3000|
|Tyreek Hill - Miami Dolphins||+4000|
|Jared Goff - Detroit Lions||+5000|
|Myles Garrett - Cleveland Browns||+15000|
|A.J. Brown - Philadelphia Eagles||+15000|
|Justin Herbert - Los Angeles Chargers||+15000|
|Micah Parsons - Dallas Cowboys||+20000|
|Geno Smith - Seattle Seahawks||+20000|
|Ja'Marr Chase - Cincinnati Bengals||+20000|
|T.J. Watt - Pittsburgh Steelers||+20000|
|Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams||+20000|
|Travis Kelce - Kansas City Chiefs||+20000|
|Derek Carr - New Orleans Saints||+20000|
|Amon-Ra St. Brown - Detroit Lions||+20000|
|Russell Wilson - Denver Broncos||+20000|
|DaRon Bland - Dallas Cowboys||+23000|
Entering the season, it appeared most people saw Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as the clear-cut favorites to win the NFL MVP.
Mahomes is currently +600 while Allen is +850.
But Tua Tagavailoa has completely taken over the MVP race. The Miami Dolphins quarterback has moved to +380 odds to win the MVP after the first three weeks of the season. The Dolphins are 3-0, Tagavailoa leads the NFL in passing yards and the Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL.
Tagavailoa is having the season that is needed to make voters quit thinking about Allen and Mahomes.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen was the favorite entering last season and is back as the favorite at +550 odds.
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow had similar odds to Allen and Mahomes entering the season. But a poor Week 1 performance already has him falling down the odds board.
There are some non-quarterbacks that have risen up the odds board. Christian McCaffrey is now 25-1 after opening around 80-1. Micah Parsons is currently 50-1.
Be sure to keep checking this page in the lead-up to the season and during the season to get the latest odds for NFL MVP.
Odds via FanDuel and updated in real-time.
Who is the favorite to win the NFL MVP?
1. Tua Tagavailoa +380
Tagavailoa jumped up into the MVP mix after a big win over the Chargers in Week 1. In the win, Tagavailoa threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns. He's been able to keep a similar pace since the first week of the season. A 70-point explosion over the Broncos will help his chances as well.
2. Patrick Mahomes +600
It was a surprise to many to see Mahomes not begin the season as the MVP favorite last year. He had already cemented himself as the best quarterback in the NFL. But it appeared to have put a chip on the shoulder of the Chiefs' gun slinger. He threw for over 500 more yards than any other quarterback during the 2022-23 season en route to one of his best seasons in the NFL. Can he repeat that kind of magic? Will he see some fatigue from voters? Many questions are going to be answered in 2023.
3. Josh Allen +850
Allen has been dubbed as the guy to push Mahomes in the new generation of quarterbacks. He went wire-to-wire with Mahomes in the playoffs in 2021 and has emerged as one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL. Could this be the year he takes the next step and becomes the Most Valuable Player in the NFL?
How Do You Win NFL MVP?
We dove deeper into past NFL MVP winners, and there are three main qualifications:
- Position: This is a quarterback award. Since 2000, there have been 19 quarterbacks to win and four running backs. An RB hasn't won since 2012.
- Win total: Does the player's team have a path to the best record in the league? Of course, you'll want to look for teams with high win totals. And while win totals are not gospel, but it should give you a good starting point. (But if you think the Jags can win 11 games, by all means bet Trevor Lawrence.)
- Stats: If everything goes really well, will that player have a statistical profile worthy of an MVP? Even though the Titans had one of the league's best records last year, Ryan Tannehill never got MVP consideration because he wasn't putting up big numbers.
Past NFL MVPs