How do you calculate expected value?

Take the (Probability of Win x Money Won per Bet) - (Probability of Loss x Money Lost per Bet). Let's say you were flipping a coin against a friend for $10 and you choose heads. Since the probability of each side is 50%, your expected value is 0. But then your friend decides to offer you +130 odds on heads, so you'll win $13. Now you have a +EV bet, because your probability of winning is better than the odds you're being offered. Plus $13 into the money won per bet, and $10 into the money lost per bet, then set both probabilities as 50%. You'll arrive at $1.50 of expected value per coin flip. (13 x .5) - (10 x .5) = $1.50

So how does it work in sports?

Let’s say you’re betting $10 on the Chiefs -7, with odds of -110. You’d win $9.91 if the Chiefs cover, and lose $10 if they don’t. The probability of the Chiefs covering the spread is roughly 50-50, but because the book is charging you -110, your expected value will be negative. You’re expected to lose 45 cents per $10 bet. (9.09 x .50) - (10 x .50) = -0.455 But let’s say you’ve built your own projections and think the Chiefs covering -7 is actually 55%. Given the odds at -110, you now believe your expected value is about 50 cents per $10 bet. (9.09 x .55) - (10 x .45) = +0.4995

Odds Value Calculator | The Action Network

Using the odds value calculator allows you to see the value which you would expect to receive for a bet based on the probability of that outcome occurring.

Wager

American Odds

Win Probability

Expected Value

$ -

Payout

Odds Value Calculator

Creating your own projections and applying them to smaller markets is a great way to make money in sports betting.

Using our odds value calculator, you can get the expected value of your bets by comparing your projections to the odds listed by sportsbooks.

Expected Value Definition

Expected value is the amount of money you can expect to win or lose if you placed the same bet on the same event at the same probability an infinite number of times. Of course, events are only played once in sports betting, so they may lose, but if you're making bets with positive expected value (+EV), you should win in the long run.

Odds Value Calculator

Creating your own projections and applying them to smaller markets is a great way to make money in sports betting.

Using our odds value calculator, you can get the expected value of your bets by comparing your projections to the odds listed by sportsbooks.