NFL Week 11 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network NFL Betting Primer

Eagles are the best team in football. Lions have the best ATS record and of course, Sam Howell and CJ Stroud lead the NFL in passing yards. Can't wait for the final eight regular season weeks.

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 11 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Saturday, Nov. 18 at 4 p.m. ET.

Wild Unders

Primetime

Between night game unders (25-7) and international, morning game unders (5-0), primetime game unders are now a whopping 30-7 this season.

Night game unders as a whole are 164-102-3 since 2019 and night unders have hit in 11 straight games, including 15 of last 16.

Monday Night Football unders are 11-1 this season and 56-28-1 since 2019.

First Timers

Late Dogs

Eagles, Chiefs and 49ers have yet to be underdogs this season. That will change this week when the Eagles are underdogs in Kansas City.

Eagles and Chiefs are the first matchup of teams being favorites in their first 9 games of the season since 49ers-Cowboys back in 1995. No, not Young-Aikman, but Grbac-Wilson, Elvis Grbac and Wade Wilson. Aikman started but was hurt in 1Q. DAL was -13 and lost outright.

Teams to be underdogs for the first time in their 10th game or later are 6-23 SU and 12-16-1 ATS, with unders going 16-13 in those games since 1990.

Low Totals

Browns History

The Steelers/Browns over/under is down to the 33 range. Anything 34 or under would be the 2nd-lowest total in the last ten years.

Lowest NFL Over/Unders in the Last 10 Years
32.5 — Saints/Browns (Dec. 2022)
33 — Steelers/Browns (This week)

Fear The Dog

Three is Key

Since the start of 2021, Joe Burrow is 16-0 in a 6-pt teaser when listed as an underdog and Bengals are 17-0 in 6-pt teaser as an underdog. As an underdog of 3 or more points, Burrow is 15-2 ATS in the NFL and was 5-1 ATS in college (20-3 ATS overall).

Buck The Trend

New Leader

CJ Stroud is 5-4 SU this season, his first year in the league. QBs out of Ohio State are now a combined 48-97 SU in the NFL (10 total QBs). The most wins SU in a single season by any of those QBs is 5 by Kent Graham, done twice — and now Stroud.

Only one other OSU QB is over .500 SU for his NFL career: Craig Krenzel, at 3-2 SU.

You Like That?

Sam Arrives

Commanders are 10-pt favorites vs. Giants this week. Washington hasn't closed as a double-digit favorite since October, 2017 — Kirk Cousins (-12) against Brian Hoyer & 49ers

Washington hasn't covered as a DD favorite since Mark Brunell vs. 49ers back in 2005

Washington was last a DD favorite vs. divisional opponent back in January, 2017 vs. Giants & Eli Manning.

Going For 12

Goff's Reign

Jared Goff and the Lions have covered 11 straight games against the NFC North. Next up the Chicago Bears at home this week.

In the last 20 years, only one other QB has covered at least 11 straight games vs. a division opponent. Andrew Luck, also with 11 in a row between 2012 and 2014.

Thursday, Nov. 16

8:20 p.m. ET · Amazon

BAL -4 · O/U: 46.5

Cincinnati Bengals

Primetime unders are 25-7 this season, 164-102-3 since 2019.

NFL first half unders are now 88-65-3 in night games since 2021, including 25-17-1 on TNF and 29-17-1 on MNF in that span. Thursday home teams are just 28-33 SU, 23-38 ATS since 2020, including 21-34 ATS in night Thursday games (worst of any day of week for home teams at night). Since 2020, Thursday home teams at night 21-34 ATS. All other days of the week, 82-69-3 ATS.

Bet Home Teams on Thursday Night?

Since 2020, they are only 27-28 SU. They are 93-61 SU on all other nights.

After both teams go over the total in their previous game, the under tends to be a good play when they match up a week later. With total of 45 or higher, when both teams go over the previous week, the under is 347-295-8 (54%) last 20 years and 98-71-3 since 2019.

Week 11: BAL-CIN, HOU-ARI

New rule? AFC North division game underdogs are 69-46-3 ATS last decade — .500 ATS or better 9 of 10 years.

Bengals are 1-23 straight up on the road in night games over the last 25 years.They are currently on a 13-game SU losing streak in this spot — last win in Philly, 2012.

Fade the Ravens This Week?

Teams covering by 5 PPG or more, facing a team with a win pct of 60% or less in Week 5 on are 281-372-18 ATS (43%). Teams playing on the road off a loss are 282-246-13 ATS since 2019 and 91-77-5 ATS last two seasons. Business trip bet.

Week 11: CIN, NYJ, TEN, LAC, NYG

Burrow is 28-19-1 to the under in the last three seasons, the 5th-most profitable QB to the under in the NFL of 95 QBs.

Over .500 SU teams with a negative avg SU point differential in November or later are 143-171-13 ATS (45.5%) last 20 years.

Week 11: CIN, SEA, PIT

Bengals allowed 30 points to the Texans last week. After Cincinnati allows 21 points or more in their previous game, Burrow is 24-11-1 ATS in his next start.

Bettors Believe in Baltimore

Ravens moved from +1 to -3.5. In Burrow’s career he is 14-5-1 ATS when the line moves for the other team – 7th of 266 QBs last 20 years.

Burrow Covers More Frequently Away from Home

Road/Neutral: 21-11 ATS

Home: 15-10-1 ATS

Burrow is 21-10-0 ATS on road/neutral in his career, has covered his last two after dropping three straight starts in this spot SU/ATS dating back to last season. He’s never dropped four straight in this spot.

Burrow has made four home starts at night, the Bengals are 5-0 SU, 2-2-1 ATS. In night games away from home, Burrow is 0-5 SU, 3-2 ATS

The Bengals stink on road in night games. Bengals have lost 14 consecutive games SU on the road at night.

Burrow in Second Halves

In Joe Burrow’s career, he is 37-20-1 (67%) against the second half spread in his career. Best 2H ATS mark in the NFL since he was drafted.

Burrow's Career ATS Record

Burrow is 9-9 ATS vs. AFC North and 28-11-1 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents. Burrow is 36-21-1 ATS (63.16%) in his career.

Ninth-most profitable entering 2023 last 20 years: Brady, Rodgers, Peyton, Brees, Bridgewater, Alex Smith, Andrew Luck, Goff, Burrow

Highest QB ATS win pct last 20 years (min. 25 starts): Bridgewater, Shaun Hill, Matt Moore, Burrow

Highest QB ATS win pct last 20 years (min. 50 starts): Bridgewater, Burrow, Luck

Burrow vs. High-Sack Rate Defenses

Burrow is 22-12 ATS against defenses with a sack rate of 3% or higher.

The Ravens sack opposing quarterbacks on 5.6% of snaps. At 5.6%, Burrow has only faced an opposing sack unit this good twice: Ravens earlier this year and Steelers, Nov. 2020. Both games resulted in SU losses for Cincinnati.

Burrow vs. Teams Above .500 SU

Burrow is 19-9 SU, 20-8 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU. In the last 20 years, he’s the sixth-most profitable quarterback ATS vs. teams above .500 SU out of 257 quarterbacks.

Burrow is 18-4 SU in his last 22 games vs. above-.500 SU opponents Burrow at LSU was 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS vs. above-.500 SU opponents

NFL and LSU combined: 34-12 SU, 34-13 ATS vs. above-.500 SU opponents

Burrow as an Underdog

11-13-1 SU, 17-8 ATS – 22-3 (88%) in a 6-pt teaser as an underdog. Since the start of 2021, Burrow is 16-0 in a 6-pt teaser when listed as an underdog and Bengals are 17-0 in 6-pt teaser as an underdog.

As an underdog of 3 or more points, Burrow is 15-2 ATS in the NFL and was 5-1 ATS in college (20-3 ATS overall). At LSU, Burrow was 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as an underdog (5-1 in pt teaser)

Burrow Bounce-Back In Order?

Burrow is 14-5 ATS after a SU loss. Since 2020, Burrow’s 14-5-1 ATS figure after a SU loss is the best in NFL.

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Baltimore Ravens

Teams to open as underdogs and close as a favorite have historically struggled to cover that number.

They are 48-85 ATS since 2019 and 18-37 ATS last two seasons.

Baltimore Coming Off a Loss

Teams off a division loss, facing a division foe again are 289-250-17. $100 bettor up $2,376 last 20 years.

Week 11: BAL, NYG

Lamar Jackson off of a loss is just 7-10 ATS, but he’s 14-3 SU. He’s won 6 in a row SU off of a loss and is 8-2 SU at home and 13-2 SU as a favorite off of a loss. Jackson has entered a night game off a loss three times: he is 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS.

Harbaugh, Ravens are 2-0 ATS after a loss this season and 14-8 ATS after a loss since 2020.

Ravens Struggling to Hold Onto Leads

Over the last two seasons, the Ravens are 9-19 against the 4th quarter spread This season, Ravens have spent just 28:46 trailing and are 7-3, the 3rd-least amount of time trailing in the last 40 years.

Least time spent trailing in the first 10 games of a season, last 40 years:

1984 Dolphins: 14:46 (started 10-0)
1998 Broncos: 27:07 (started 10-0)
2023 Ravens: 28:46 (7-3)
1990 Giants: 43:42 (started 10-0)
2007 Patriots: 51:03 (started 10-0)

Ravens are 8-0-2 on the first quarter moneyline.

Harbaugh is 20 games over .500 ATS as an underdog and four games under .500 ATS as a favorite. Harbaugh is 154-108-9 1H ATS with $100 bettor up $3,800, most of any coach in NFL since 2005. With Lamar Jackson & Joe Flacco, Harbaugh is 142-101-9 1H ATS.

Lamar Jackson's ATS Splits

Over the past three seasons, Lamar Jackson is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog but 10-18 ATS as a favorite, including 4-15 ATS when favored by more than 3 points.

Jackson is 15-7 SU, 10-12 ATS vs. AFC North. 7-3 ATS on road, 3-9 ATS at home.

Jackson is 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog. In all other spots he is 20-30 ATS career.

Jackson is 12-6 SU in night games. He’s won 4 straight night games and 6 of his last 7.

Jackson covers the 1H spread on the road/neutral, he’s 26-10-1 1H ATS and 20-17-1 1H ATS at home. Between 2021-23, he’s 18-15-1 1H ATS. From 2018-20, he was 28-12-1 1H ATS.

Jackson is 25-10 SU and 13-22 ATS as a home favorite. Of 213 QBs over the last 20 years, he is ranked 207th ATS as a home favorite. He’s just 11-17 ATS playing a home game at 1 p.m. ET

On the Move

Teams to see line move 3 points or more away from from them — ex. -3 to -6 — are 23-28-2 ATS this season; 62-88-3 ATS since start of last year; 119-152-4 ATS since 2020.

Week 11: BAL, SF, DAL

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Sunday, Nov. 19

1 p.m. ET · CBS

CLE -1.5 · O/U: 33

Pittsburgh Steelers

"Bet dogs in low total games…"

NFL underdogs in games with a total below 42 are 169-112-6 ATS (60%) since 2018 & 32-18-2 ATS this season.

Week 11: TB, NYJ, PIT, NYG, TEN

Games with 10+ MPH winds are 15-4-1 to the under this year, going under the total by 6 PPG.

When Tomlin is a dog with 7+ MPH winds, he is 26-11-2 ATS, best of any coach in the last 20 years.

New rule? AFC North division game underdogs are 69-46-3 ATS last decade — .500 ATS or better 9 of 10 years.

The Steelers are 9-0 in their last nine one-score games and 11-1 over their last 12 one-score games.

Even dating back to 2021, Pittsburgh is 21-7-1 in one-score games.

Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS on the season, are 155-180-9 ATS since 2015

Week 11: PIT, WAS

Steelers are the first team since 1933, when the NFL began tracking rushing and receiving statistics, to be outgained in each of their first eight games and still have a winning record.

The Steelers have played 44 consecutive games without reaching 400 yards of offense.

The longest active streak in the NFL, longest streak since Rams in 2014-17 (46 games). They are 5th team last 20 years with this long of a streak.

Over-.500 SU teams with a negative avg SU point differential in November or later are 143-171-13 ATS (45.5%) last 20 years.

Steelers are 5-0 vs the Browns at home in the regular season the last 5 years, straight-up and ATS.

Average line was Steelers -2.4 and they won by 15.4 ppg with 4 of the 5 wins by double digits.

Steelers have allowed 20 points or less in five straight games. Which puts them in a tough spot this week.

Teams who allow 20 points or less in 5 straight game are 87-106-3 ATS last 20 years.

Steelers under Mike Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger: 36-22-3 ATS.

Steelers under Tomlin without Big Ben or Pickett: 22-15-3 ATS

Steelers are 31-45-1 1H ATS last 5 seasons under Tomlin, making him worst coach 1H ATS in that span.

When Steelers open -3 or smaller, or as an underdog, they are 29-16-4 ATS under Tomlin at home and 85-52-6 ATS career.
When Steelers close -3 or smaller, or as an underdog, they are 86-56-6 ATS under Tomlin, including 34-18-4 ATS at home.
When Steelers open -2.5 or smaller, or as an underdog, they are 24-13-4 ATS under Tomlin at home and 72-45-5 ATS career.

Over the last two seasons, Steelers are 14-5 SU/ATS w/ TJ Watt, 1-6 SU w/o him (2-4-1 ATS).

Since T.J. Watt’s first game in 2017, Steelers are 66-42-2 SU, 58-50-2 ATS.

They’ve played without him for just 11 games. Pittsburgh is 1-10 SU, 4-6-1 ATS in those games.

Which means they are 64-32-2 SU, 53-44-1 ATS with Watt.

Steelers are 47-46 SU, 57-32-4 ATS as an underdog under Tomlin, making a $100 bettor $2,657, making him the most second most profitable coach as a dog in the last 20 years behind Tom Cable: $2,864.

Steelers haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog since 2016 and it's only happened twice under Tomlin.

PIT is 4-2 SU, ATS as an underdog in 2023.

Tomlin is 46-21-2 ATS as an underdog from Week 5 forward, including 38-31 SU on the moneyline.

Tomlin is 36-19-2 ATS as an underdog when facing above .500 SU teams – best in NFL last 20 years. In that spot vs. AFC? 26-13-2 ATS for Tomlin.

Mike Tomlin road unders.

They are 80-59-1 (57.6%) as coach of the Steelers, best of any coach last 20 years. It is 55-25-1 (68.8%) last decade.

This is also a classic Mike Tomlin spot as an underdog.

Dog vs. AFC North: 19-14 SU, 23-8-2 ATS

Dog after a SU loss: 22-10 ATS (54-40 ATS after a SU loss overall)

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Cleveland Browns

• With Deshaun Watson now gone for the season with shoulder surgery, the Browns are turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson this week, and potentially PJ Walker in future weeks.
  Browns will start a backup QB for the 55th time in the last decade this week. They are 18-36 SU, 25-28-1 ATS in those games.
  Browns have actually done a good job in these games lately going 3-5 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games with a backup.
  Under Stefanski, Browns are 7-10 SU, 9-7-1 ATS with a backup QB.
• Dorian Thompson-Robinson makes his second career start this week. He faced the Ravens at home earlier this season, losing 28-3 as a 1.5-pt underdog.
  DTR will be the 34th rookie/first season QB to face the Steelers under Mike Tomlin. Those QBs are 5-28 SU, with CJ Stroud being one of the wins earlier this season.
• PJ Walker is 7-2 ATS in his NFL career, covering the spread by 10.3 PPG.
• Watson’s 9.2 intended air yards per attempt was tied for the highest in the NFL of 32 QBs (Jordan Love)
• Watson was 4-2 ATS this season. Watson had not finished above .500 ATS since his rookie year (2017) prior to this campaign.
• Stefanski with Browns
  Favorite: 22-10 SU, 12-20 ATS
  Dog: 10-18 SU, 16-11-1 ATS
• Browns are 13-12-1 ATS after a loss under Stefanski.
  Browns are 11-19 SU, 12-18 ATS after a SU win under Stefanski
  Browns are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after a SU win.
• Browns are 11-11 SU, 7-15 ATS vs. AFC North under Kevin Stefanski.
  Of 145 head coaches last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is second least profitable coach ahead of only Joe Philbin.
  Stefanski is 21-16-1 ATS against non-AFC North teams.
• The Browns pass defense has been unreal.
  5th-fewest pass yds allowed thru 9 games since 2000
• Stefanksi is 6-1 SU the game after playing the Steelers or Ravens on the road as coach of the Browns.

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Sunday, Nov. 19

1 p.m. ET · CBS

HOU -6 · O/U: 48

Arizona Cardinals

After both teams go over the total in their previous game, the under tends to be a good play when they matchup a week later. With total of 45 or higher, when both teams go over the previous week, the under is 347-295-8 (54%) last 20 years and 98-71-3 since 2019.

Week 11: BAL/CIN, HOU/ARI

It is smart to fade bad teams off a recent win. Teams 1-4 SU in their last 5 games, coming off a win are 79-136-1 SU (36.7%) last 20 years.

Week 11: ARI, TB

Cardinals offense has been a rollercoaster this season. From Dobbs to Tune now to Kyler, lets see if they can see some consistency.

1st 3 games: 11th offensive EPA/play, 15th off. success rate
Next 6 games: 31st offensive EPA/play, 30th in off. success rate
Week 10: 17th offensive EPA/play, 6th off. success rate

Since Kyler Murray arrived in Arizona, he is 26-32-1 SU. All other QBs are 4-14 SU.

How have bad teams done after a win? Teams who won 6 games or fewer previous season and won their last game, are actually 6-4 SU this season, but almost 80 games under .500 SU in the last 20 years.

Week 11: ARI, CHI, DEN

Cardinals defense stinks.

Pressure rate: 17.7% (30th)
Opp. first downs: 223 (32nd)
EPA/play on D: 30th
Opp. success rate: 31st

Cardinals were a public side for the first time vs the Falcons. They were the last team to not be a public side this season.

ARI plays HOU this week in HOU

Kyler Murray on the road: 17-9-2 ATS, 15-13 SU

Vs teams above .500: 9-15-2 ATS, 7-19 SU

• Murray has been really good ATS against teams who rush the QB (Texans sack % at 6.25, 9.09 last week)

Against teams with a sack percentage of 6+: 5-1-1 ATS

Trey McBride has emerged as the leading target for ARI QBs

Over first 7 games – 21 targets
Last 3 – 28 tgts (8 catches for 131 yards last week)

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Houston Texans

Look at Texans schedule. They now have three straight home games after an upset win against the Bengals, facing Cardinals, Jaguars, Broncos.

In the last decade, teams starting a homestand of 3 games or more are 95-51 SU on the moneyline.

Teams coming off 500+ yards of offense and playing at home in their next game are just 71-92-1 ATS last 20 years.

Week 11: DET, HOU

Texans are the talk of the town. The team covering by 5+ PPG, who didn’t make the playoffs the year before. Those teams are 433-526-32 ATS (45.2%) last 20 years. Buyer beware.

CJ Stroud currently leads the NFL in passing yards per game at 291.8.

Rookies to lead the NFL in passing yards per game in NFL History – minimum 75 pct of team games played

Davey O’Brien – 120.4 in 1939
Sammy Baugh – 102.5 in 1937

The only rookie to win NFL MVP was Jim Brown in 1957.

Stroud is down to 20-1. He was 200-1 entering Week 9.

CJ Stroud is 5-4 SU this season, his first year in the league. QBs out of Ohio State are a combined now 48-97 SU in the NFL (10 total QBs). The most wins SU in a single season by any of those QBs is 5 by Kent Graham, done twice — and now Stroud.

Only one other OSU QB is over .500 SU for his NFL career. Craig Krenzel, at 3-2 SU.

Stroud has been incredible. He has 15 pass TD and over 2,500 pass yds.

He is 3rd QB to do that in his first 9 starts: Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert.

Texans are up to 5 SU wins this season, that is their most in a year in the last four seasons.

Texans have won 4 games or less SU three straight years (2020-22) – last team to do it four straight years? 1972-75 Bears.

CJ Stroud has had a very turnover free start to his career with 318 pass attempts and 2 INT. In a QBs first 9 starts, 24 QBs have had 300+ pass att, Stroud’s 2 INT is fewest of any QB.

Most QB pass attempts this season, 2 INT or fewer

Texans C.J. Stroud – 318 Pass Attempts
Titans Will Levis – 107 Pass Attempts
Giants Tyrod Taylor – 87 Pass Attempts

Stroud has made nine starts in his NFL career. He’s 5-1 ATS as an underdog and 0-3 ATS as a favorite.

He’s excelled in the first half, going 6-3 1H ATS this season.

In the 1H, Stroud is 6-0 ATS as a dog, 0-3 ATS as a favorite

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Sunday, Nov. 19

1 p.m. ET · FOX

LAC -3 · O/U: 44

Los Angeles Chargers

Teams playing on the road off a loss are 282-246-13 ATS since 2019 and 91-77-5 ATS last two seasons. Business trip bet.

Week 11: CIN, NYJ, TEN, LAC, NYG

How have Herbert and the Chargers done off a close loss (8 points or less)?

Just 8-11 ATS. He’s just 3-6 SU in his last 9 games in this spot.

Chargers in Justin Herbert's 59 career starts, including playoffs (via Doug Clawson):

Points scored 1,502

Points allowed 1,502

Fewest SU wins, teams with win total of 9.5 or more

Jets, Chargers – 4

The Chargers have played 27 games since the start of last season, and 19 of them have finished within seven points.

20 of the Chargers' last 28 games have been decided by 7 points or less dating back to the Week 18, 2021 Raiders loss.

Herbert’s W/L record has been a product of his defense in his career.

When his defense allows 27 points or more, LAC is 6-25 SU, 9-22 ATS.

When his defense allows fewer than 27 points, LAC is 23-5 SU, 22-5-1 ATS

Herbert is 17-12 ATS on the road, and only 14-15-1 ATS at home in his career.

Chargers have finished .500 ATS or better on the road in 11 consecutive seasons.

2-2 this season

Chargers have finished above .500 ATS once at home in the last ten years.

Herbert by time zone:

EST/CST: 14-7 ATS

MST/PST: 17-20-1 ATS

Herbert’s 14-7 ATS mark in EST/CST is 2nd-best of any QB since he was drafted.

Herbert and the Chargers haven’t performed well off close games lately.

They are 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last eleven games coming off of a 3 pt decision either way in their last game.

Herbert as an underdog and as a favorite

Underdog: 13-9 ATS, 19-3 in 6-pt teasers

Favorite: 18-18-1 ATS, 27-8 in 6-pt teasers

Herbert is 16-19-1 ATS in “toss up” games in his career – or games with a spread of 4 points or less – including 11-16-1 ATS with spread of 3 or less.

He’s 2-7-1 ATS in his last 10 games in this spot, with his two wins over Cousins, Vikings and Wilson, Jets.

Herbert is 34-25 1H ATS, he’s 17-10 1H ATS since start of last season – 3rd-best mark in the NFL.

Herbert is 18-36-5 against the second half spread in his career.

Since 2005, he’s 250th of 254 QBs in 2H ATS profitability

Can’t hold a lead:

he’s 8-25-2 2H ATS when leading at HT

-$1,764, 3rd-worst in NFL since 2005

Herbert 2H ATS Career:

2023: 3-5-1 ATS

2022: 6-10-2 ATS

2021: 5-12 ATS

2020: 4-9-2 ATS

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Green Bay Packers

Offensive problems in Green Bay.

30th comp. %, 23rd in Y/pass att, 22nd in Pass Rtg, 7th in INT

Love’s 58.7% comp. % is worst in NFL.

LaFleur is 46-34 ATS in his career as Packers coach.

LaFleur has excelled as an underdog. He is 16-10 ATS as a ‘dog — 12-5 with Rodgers and 4-5 with Jordan Love. As a favorite, LaFleur is 30-24 ATS.

Jordan Love has been streaky has an NFL QB.

Started 4-0 ATS, 1-5 ATS since.

Love has closed as a favorite 1 time in his 10 start career.

Love doesn’t play as good vs. good sack teams. Chargers have 4.7% pct plays end in a sack.

More than 2%: 2-5 ATS

2% or less: 2-0 ATS

Jordan Love’s 9.2 air yards per pass attempt is 2nd-highest among all QBs, behind just Ryan Tannehill this season.

Rodgers or not, LaFleur has done well at home, at 25-15 ATS, .500 ATS or better all five seasons in Green Bay.

Even against good offenses like Chargers, LaFleur is 9-7 ATS at home vs. teams avg 24 PPG or more.

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Sunday, Nov. 19

1 p.m. ET · FOX

WAS -8.5 · O/U: 37.5

New York Giants

Giants are the 13th-worst team according to DVOA through ten games since 1981 and the worst since the 2019 Dolphins.

Last team this bad in DVOA through ten games, with this bad an offense? 2013 Jaguars.

Teams playing on the road off a loss are 282-246-13 ATS since 2019 and 91-77-5 ATS last two seasons. Business trip bet.

Week 11: CIN, NYJ, TEN, LAC, NYG

Teams off a division loss, facing a division foe again are 289-250-17. $100 bettor up $2,376 last 20 years.

Week 11: BAL, NYG

"Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 169-112-6 ATS (60%) since 2018 & 32-18-2 ATS this season.

Week 11: TB, NYJ, PIT, NYG, TEN

Teams at the end of a road trip tend to fall off a bit. On the 3rd game or later of a road trip, teams are 43-64 SU in the last 20 years, including 20-53 SU in that spot as an underdog.

Week 11: TENN, NYG

Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didn’t, are 85-58-1 ATS (59.4%) since 2020.

Week 11: JAC, NYG

Double-digit dogs in division are 0-3 ATS this season. When those double-digit division dogs are in November or earlier, they are 85-55 ATS last 20 years – 85-52 ATS entering this season.

Week 11: CHI, NYG

The Giants are 8-2 to the under this season. Tied for best under team in the NFL w/ LV

That is the Giants best start to the over or under through ten games since 1987.

Giants are 42-18-2 to the under since 2020 – by far the best mark to the under in the NFL

Daboll led the Giants to an impressive 11-3 ATS record as an underdog in Year 1, going 7-6 straight-up (SU) in those spots.

2023 hasn’t been as kind. Giants are 1-8 SU and 2-6-1 ATS as an underdog this season.

Tough schedule: 4 of first 6 games on road | Wk9-11 all on road (LV, DAL, WSH)

A very different year for the Giants under Brian Daboll.

They went 7-0 ATS after a SU loss last season. This year, they are 2-5 ATS

Giants are 17-15 ATS on the road last 4 years, but its been very up and down

2023: 1-5 ATS | 2022: 7-2 ATS | 2021: 3-6 ATS | 2020: 6-2 ATS

QB comparison – min. 50 plays as QB for ranks.

Taylor: 27th EPA/play, comp% 5th, 21st avg depth per target

Jones: 40th EPA/play, comp% 14th, 35th avg depth per target

Devito: 42nd EPA/play, comp% 40th, 42nd avg depth per target

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Washington Commanders

Commanders are 10-pt favorites vs. Giants this week.

Washington hasn't closed as a double-digit favorite since October, 2017 — Kirk Cousins (-12) against Brian Hoyer & 49ers

Washington hasn't covered as a DD favorite since Mark Brunell vs. 49ers back in 2005

Washington was last a DD favorite vs. divisional opponent back in January, 2017 vs. Giants & Eli Manning.

Teams to travel from PST to EST have had 1H success going 106-65-3 1H ATS since 2017.

Week 11: NYJ, WAS, LV, DET

When there’s a double-digit home favorite in division, in the second half of the season, the under is 90-66-5 (58%) last 20 years.

Week 11: WAS/NYG, CHI/DET

Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS on the season, are 155-180-9 ATS since 2015

Week 11: PIT, WAS

Sam Howell is 1st in the NFL in passing yards this season, 5th in pass TDs, 2nd in 1st down completions – all while taking the most sacks of any QB in the NFL.

Sam Howell has been sacked 47 times so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL.The NFL record for sacks taken in a season is 76, set by David Carr for the Texans in 2002, their first year in the NF.

Most Times Sacked as QB — Through 9 Games

49 — David Carr, 2002

46 — David Carr, 2005

44 — Sam Howell, 2023

Howell is 5-1 ATS in his career on the road. All six games have ended in one-score games.

Howell is 1-3-1 ATS at home

Best Washington QB ATS on road last 20 years: Grossman, Howell

Rivera was off a win as an underdog two weeks against the Patriots. Public would assume there is a step back the following week, but Rivera is now 17-6-1 ATS in this spot since 2017 – the best ATS in this spot in that span. Rivera is 26-11-1 ATS in this spot for his career, most profitable coach in the NFL.

Under in Commanders home games is 20-9-1 since 2020 – 3rd-best in the NFL behind the Giants (20-6-1) and Rams (21-10)

The dog is strong in Ron Rivera. He is 61-43-2 ATS as an underdog and 47-52-2 ATS as a favorite with Washington and Carolina.

In the last four seasons, Rivera-coached games are 36-23-2 (61%) to the under.

In that span, Rivera is the 3rd-best coach to under: Joe Judge, Sean McVay, Ron Rivera

Rivera has had issues covering the 1H spread. Washington is 4-6 1H ATS this season and 29-42-2 1H ATS since 2019 – second worst coach 1H ATS in NFL behind Tomlin.

Rivera is 3-8 ATS vs. Giants in his coaching career, his least profitable opponent ATS.

He is 1-8 ATS vs. Giants as a favorite

He is 2-5 ATS vs. Giants with Washington

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Sunday, Nov. 19

1 p.m. ET · CBS

JAC -6.5 · O/U: 40

Tennessee Titans

Teams playing on the road off a loss are 282-246-13 ATS since 2019 and 91-77-5 ATS last two seasons. Business trip bet.

Week 11: CIN, NYJ, TEN, LAC, NYG

Teams love a good stop in Florida on a road trip. Teams to face the Bucs, Jaguars and Dolphins in the 2nd game or later of a road trip (road previous game), are 91-51-5 ATS (64.1%) last 20 years. Even teams coming off another road game in Florida, like Titans, are 7-6 ATS in this spot.

"Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 169-112-6 ATS (60%) since 2018 & 32-18-2 ATS this season.

Week 11: TB, NYJ, PIT, NYG, TEN

Teams at the end of a road trip tend to fall off a bit. On the 3rd game or later of a road trip, teams are 43-64 SU in the last 20 years, including 20-53 SU in that spot as an underdog.

Week 11: TENN, NYG

Titans have officially moved from Ryan Tannehill to Will Levis, moving Tannehill to the backup slot.

Of 41 quarterbacks with at least 60 plays this season, the Titans' rookie quarterback has the fourth-lowest success rate. He’s ahead of only Tommy DeVito, Zach Wilson and P.J. Walker.

In games with a spread of 3 or less, Vrabel is 21-17 SU, 19-17-2 ATS, including 4-2 ATS in that spot this season.

Titans have now gone 28 straight games without scoring 30 points.

Longest active streak in the NFL and longest streak in franchise history

NYG streak of 43 straight games was last one broken this high in 2022.

Vrabel as an underdog: 25-26 SU, 29-21-1 ATS, including 25-14-1 ATS when the spread is +3 or higher.

Minimum 20 games as an underdog, only Mike Vrabel, Matt LaFleur, Mike Tomlin and Bill Cowher are at or over .500 SU as an underdog in the Wild Card era.

In 6 seasons with Titans, Vrabel has never finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog (4-4 ATS this season).

Vrabel is 37-28 SU in Sept, Oct & Nov. in his career (16-15 SU in Dec. on).

Vrabel is 13-10-1 ATS as an underdog off of a SU loss. He’s covered 4-2 in his last 6 games in this spot.

Against divisional opponents, Vrabel is 19-12 SU, 17-14 ATS.

Vrabel is off a win as an underdog last week against the Falcons. Public would assume there is a step back the following week, but Vrabel is 14-11 ATS in this spot, covering by 4.62 PPG. After a win as a dog SU, Vrabel is 9-5 ATS when listed as a dog again.

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Jacksonville Jaguars

Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didn’t, are 85-58-1 ATS (59.4%) since 2020.

Week 11: JAC, NYG

Good teams who lost and scored fewer than 14 points in their last game tend to cover in their next game. Teams over .500 SU, who scored less than 14 points in a loss are 101-77-6 ATS last ten years.

Week 11: JAC

Don’t just expect the bounce back. In the last decade, teams off a loss, who are a home favorite the next week, also acting as the public side, are 185-220-9 ATS (45.7%).

Week 11: MIA, JAC, BUF

Jaguars are 8-16 SU off a loss under Lawrence. They are 10-8 SU off of a win.

Lawrence is 9-15 ATS career off a loss and 11-7 ATS off a SU win.

When it comes to covering the number, Lawrence likes facing good teams. The Jaguars have covered 9 of last 10 games vs. teams above .500 SU. Over the last two seasons, Lawrence is 9-4 ATS in this spot

Lawrence has been made into a different QB with Doug Pederson

w/ Pederson: 16-12 SU/ATS

w/ Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer: 3-14 SU, 5-12 ATS

Lawrence is 21-24 against 1H spread career, but this season has been a turn around for Lawrence. He is 7-2 1H ATS this season, tied for second best in the NFL.

Lawrence is 17-10-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season – the 2nd-most profitable 2H ATS QB in the NFL behind Joe Burrow.

Looking for a Lawrence anytime TD? He’s scored in just seven of 43 career games – his last coming in December of last year.

Lawrence is 27-18 to the under in the last three seasons, the 4th-most profitable QB to the under in the NFL (of 95 QBs) behind Daniel Jones, Kenny Pickett, Baker Mayfield

Lawrence on the moneyline as an underdog

Home: 7-7 SU

Road/Neutral: 6-13 SU (4-1 SU in last 5)

Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite.

Underdog: 32-24 ATS (7-2 ATS last 9 games)

Favorite: 27-31 ATS

Lawrence is just 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS as a favorite in his NFL career.

Since he was drafted in 2021, he’s the 11th-least profitable QB as a favorite on the ML.

Lawrence is 6-1 SU in his last seven starts as a favorite

Lawrence has struggled vs. bad teams. He is 7-13 ATS vs. teams .500 SU or worse and under .500 ATS in this spot all three years of his career + he’s lost three of his last four ATS in this spot.

Lawrence has struggled vs. bad teams. He is 4-11 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and under .500 ATS in this spot all three years of his career.

Lawrence by opponent in the AFC South. He’s only under .500 SU vs. Texans.

HOU: 1-4 SU/ATS

TEN: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS

IND: 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS

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Sunday, Nov. 19

1 p.m. ET · FOX

DET -8 · O/U: 48

Chicago Bears

Double-digit dogs in division are 0-3 ATS this season. When those double-digit division dogs are in November or earlier, they are 85-55 ATS last 20 years – 85-52 ATS entering this season.

Week 11: CHI, NYG

Bears are 0-1 ATS/SU on extended rest this season.

Here is how the Bears have done on extended rest recently.

Since 2022: 2-2 ATS and 1-3 SU

Since 2021: 3-5 ATS and 1-7 SU

Since 2020: 4-8 ATS and 2-10 SU

Since start of last season, Bears are 6-21 SU .. 3-2 SU at night, 3-19 SU not at night.

Bears are 6-4 to the over this year (Third best mark in NFL) and 16-11 to the over since start of last season, best mark in the NFL.

Most profitable NFL team to 𝐛𝐞𝐭 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭…

Since 2022: Bears (18-8-1 ATS)

Since 2021: Bears (29-14-1 ATS)

Since 2020: Bears (38-22-1 ATS)

Since 2019: Bears (50-25-2 ATS)

Since 2018: Bears (55-37-2 ATS)

Over the last 20 years, Bears are 65-83-4 ATS (43.9%) after a SU win. Under Matt Eberflus, Bears are 0-5 SU/ATS after a win, failing to cover the spread by 6.4 PPG.

Bears are 29-47-1 ATS as a dog after a SU win last 20 years

Chicago is 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall and they are 25-50-2 ATS over the last 5 seasons – worst mark in the NFL

The Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons, going a pathetic 5-20-1 ATS vs the Lions, Packers and Vikings since 2019, losing a $100 bettor $1,514 – that is the least profitable team vs. their own division in the NFL in that span.

CHI is 20-30-1 ATS vs. other divisions since 2019

How have bad teams done after a win? Teams who won 6 games or fewer previous season and won their last game, are actually 6-4 SU this season, but almost 80 games under .500 SU in the last 20 years.

Week 11: ARI, CHI, DEN

With the Bears going to a backup again Sunday in Tyson Bagent, this will be the 39th game Chicago will start a backup QB over the last decade. Bears are 11-27 SU, 15-23 ATS in those games, including 3-11 SU, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in the spot dating back to 2021.

Fields is 6-24 SU, 9-20-1 ATS in his career.

Min. 20 starts, Fields has lowest ATS win pct last 20 years (31%).

Fields, 121. McCoy 12-23-1 ATS, 120. Bruce Gradkowski 7-13-1 ATS

Fields is 11-18-1 1H ATS in his career.

Since he was drafted in 2021, only Tom Brady and Desmond Ridder have been worse 1H ATS.

When Bears opponents score more than 20 points vs. a Justin Fields-Bears team, they are 20-0 SU. All 6 Fields wins have come with opponents scoring 20 points or less.

Teams off a night game, who are road dogs this week win just 32.7% games since 1990.

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Detroit Lions

Lions are 7-2 ATS this season – best record in the NFL.

Teams to travel from PST to EST have had 1H success going 106-65-3 1H ATS since 2017.

Week 11: NYJ, WAS, LV, DET

Teams coming off 500+ yards of offense and playing at home in their next game are just 71-92-1 ATS last 20 years.

Week 11: DET, HOU

When there’s a double-digit home favorite in division, in the second half of the season, the under is 90-66-5 (58%) last 20 years.

Week 11: WAS/NYG, CHI/DET

Jared Goff and the Lions will play 7 of their final 8 games in a dome.

-700 to win NFC North = shortest division odds for DET last 20 years

Lions are favored to win NFC North for 1st time since current iteration of division in 2002.

Last time they had best odds for division team was 1992

Dan Campbell 34-21 ATS (61.8%) career. Of ​​115 NFL coaches that have had 50+ games experience under their belt since 1990. Dan Campbell has the best ATS win pct of all of them

Goff is 19-6-1 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, best mark of any QB in the NFL.

Goff is most profitable QB ATS over last 5 years (46-25-1 ATS, +$1,769).

Lions are 30-13 ATS (69.8%) since the start of the 2021 season, most profitable team ATS in the NFL ($1,434). 2nd-best is Dallas.

Lions are 3 wins away from 10 ATS wins in three straight seasons (7-2 ATS this year). Prior to this stretch, Lions had one 10-win ATS season (2010) since 1995.

Lions are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 games overall.

Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor.

Indoor: 30-14 ATS (20-6 ATS last 3 seasons)

Outdoor: 34-34-2 ATS (25-20-1 ATS in Nov or earlier | 9-14-1 ATS in Dec/Jan)

Goff is 20-8 ATS at home since 2020, most profitable QB in the NFL.

Goff on the road since 2020: 16-12 ATS

Goff is 14-8 ATS off a SU loss with the Lions, including 11-4 ATS when that game is played at home.

When Goff’s teams are above .500 SU & coming off a loss, he’s 12-6-1 ATS

Goff is has covered 11 straight against the NFC North

Highest Lions Spreads for Jared Goff as Starter

-9.5: 2023 vs. CAR (W, 42-24)

-7: 2023 vs LV (W, 26-14)

-4.5: 2023 vs. SEA (L, 37-31)

-4.5: 2022 vs. CHI (W, 41-10)

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Sunday, Nov. 19

1 p.m. ET · CBS

MIA -13.5 · O/U: 46

Las Vegas Raiders

West coast teams traveling east has been a good omen lately.

PST teams have had success playing in EST recently, going 48-33-3 ATS since 2019.

Teams to travel from PST to EST have had 1H success going 106-65-3 1H ATS since 2017.

PST and MST teams have had success playing on the road in EST lately, they are 69-43-3 ATS since 2019 – over .500 ATS in all five seasons.

West coast teams that travel east after a home game have performed well, going 88-65-4 ATS 957.5%) last ten years.

The Raiders team total under is 9-1 this season – that is tied with the Patriots for best TT under record in the NFL.

Aidan O’Connell is the 24th different Raiders starting QB over the last 20 years.

Only 3 of those 24 are profitable ATS for the Raiders: Jason Campbell, Terrelle Pryor, and O’Connell (2-1 ATS)

Raiders home/road since moving to Las Vegas

Raiders at home in Vegas: 15-15 SU, 17-13 ATS

On road/neutral: 14-17 SU, 12-19 ATS

At 2-0 ATS, Antonio Pierce is already making Raiders history.

3rd LV coach since 1990 over .500 ATS: Hue Jackson and Jon Gruden

This season: Pierce: 2-0 ATS | McDaniels: 3-5 ATS

Raiders big upsets.

Opened as 10 point underdogs on road vs Dolphins

Raiders are 0-2 ATS as 7+ point dogs this season

@ Bills (+7.5, L 38-10)

@ Lions (+7, L 26-14)

Last upset as dog of 7+

1/2/22: @ Colts (+8.5, W 23-20)

Raiders off SNF game last week.

Teams off a night game, who are road dogs this week win just 32.7% games since 1990.

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Miami Dolphins

Don’t just expect the bounce back. In the last decade, teams off a loss, who are a home favorite the next week, also acting as the public side, are 185-220-9 ATS (45.7%).

Week 11: MIA, JAC, BUF

Since 2021, Dolphins are 4-11 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 16-7 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.

The Dolphins haven't beaten a team with a winning record since they beat the Bills in Week 3 of last season (9/25/22) – Only two teams don't have a SU win over a team with a winning record in this span == Bears: 0-9 SU, Dolphins: 0-7 SU

Dolphins offense is still highest in the NFL at 7.1 YPP. 2nd-highest through 9 games all-time, ahead of just 2000 Rams (7.6).

Usually teams with early year high power offenses come back to reality. Teams who avg 6+ YPP in November or later are 44-53-4 ATS last 20 years.

The Dolphins are still averaging 31.7 PPG this season, best in the NFL, entering Week 11.

Teams to avg 31 PPG or more in 10th game or later are 93-114-7 ATS (44.9%) last 20 years.

Tua prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 16-5 ATS at home and 9-12-1 ATS away from home in his career.
Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015

Miami is 37-20-3 ATS since 2016 at home – best home team ATS in that span

Tua by time zone: 22-9-1 ATS in EST | 3-7 ATS all other time zones

Tyreek Hill has 1,076 receiving yards through 9 games – most for any player since Tyreek Hill last season, at 1,102 yards. Prior to that? 1961.

When Tua faces an opposing offense avg 21 PPG or less, he is 12-5 SU, including 11-1 SU in his last 12.

Tua is 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS as a favorite of over 4 points. In his career, he has avoided the big upset bug.

Tua has been a double-digit favorite five times in his career, he is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS

Tua has played four games off ten days rest or longer during the regular season, he is 4-0 SU, and 3-1 ATS in those games.

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Sunday, Nov. 19

1 p.m. ET · FOX

DAL -10.5 · O/U: 42.5

Dallas Cowboys

Teams to see line move 3 points or more away from you — ex. -3 to -6 — are 23-28-2 ATS this season

62-88-3 ATS since start of last year

119-152-4 ATS since 2020

Week 11: BAL, SF, DAL

Good 3rd down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% 3rd down rate or higher, facing a team who is below that threshold, is 316-252-19 ATS (55.6%) last 20 years.

Week 11: DAL, BUF

CeeDee Lamb has 100+ receiving yards in four straight games, a career high. Four straight has only been done twice in Cowboys history – 1995, Michael Irvin (7), 2007, Terrell Owens (4).

He has 10+ receptions and 100+ yards in three straight games. Only player to do so since 1970.

Lamb is 1st player in NFL history with double-digit catches with 150+ rec yds in three straight games

Dak is 7-0 ATS coming off a loss last two seasons and 5-9 ATS off a SU win.

7-0 ATS mark is best in the NFL – undefeated QBs ATS off loss last two years: Dak, Watson (4-0), Darnold (3-0)

5-9 ATS mark is tied for 4th-worst in the NFL amongst QBs

Dak Precott tends to perform well as a big favorite. He’s 33-7 SU, 28-11-1 ATS as a favorite of 6 points or more

He’s 23-4 SU, 18-8-1 ATS as a 6+ pt favorite at home

As a double-digit favorite, Dak is 9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS

As a favorite of 6 or more vs. NFC East, Dak is 14-1 SU, 12-3 ATS.

Dak does well vs. bad teams. He is 33-10 SU, 29-13-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 21-23 SU, 17-27 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.

The 29-13-2 ATS mark is 2nd best in the last 20 years behind just Tom Brady.

The 17-27 ATS mark is 255th of 259 QBs in the last 20 years.

Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson has 17 targets in the red zone this year, most among TEs in the NFL with Travis Kelce and tied for most among all players with Davante Adams

Ferguson has also caught a TD in three straight games – 1st DAL TE to do so since Jason Witten in 2011.

Can the Cowboys keep it going? Last three seasons…

After a loss SU: 12-1 ATS

After a win SU: 16-14 ATS

If you bet on Dak to throw an INT in every game last season, you would be up 8.6U (most of any QB). 2nd was Aaron Rodgers at +7.2U.

This season, you would be up 0.2 units betting a “yes” INT for Dak.

Cowboys are coming off a big win. Under McCarthy, Dallas is 4-10 ATS after winning by 20 points or more – including 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games in this spot.

Last two seasons, Dallas is 3-9 ATS after winning by double-digits.

Dak Prescott is 5-8-1 ATS in MST or PST time zones, but he’s 56-41-1 ATS in EST and CST.

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Carolina Panthers

What a first half ATS rollercoaster Frank Reich teams have gone through.

2023 Panthers: 6-3 1H ATS

2022 Colts: 0-9 1H ATS

2018-21 Colts: 42-25-1 1H ATS (Reich 2nd-best in NFL)

Dating back to last season, Frank Reich coached teams are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games.

Panthers are 8-1 against first quarter spread this season.

Bryce Young is 1-7 SU so far this season. Since 2000, No. 1 overall QB picks are 63-126-2 SU in their first season.

Panthers and former Colts coach Frank Reich usually plays to his role

As favorite: 30-13-1 SU

As underdog: 12-30 SU

Reich by days of rest

Short: 9-2 ATS, 6-5 SU

Normal: 24-30-1 ATS, 28-27 SU

Extended: 7-5-2 ATS, 8-6 SU

Frank Reich is 2-9 SU, 3-7-1 ATS as a home underdog as coach of the Panthers and Colts

Off Chicago. Teams coming off a road game in Soldier Field are 96-60-2 ATS in the last 20 years, most profitable previous road city in the NFL. $1,500 more on a $100 bet than 2nd city, Jacksonville.

Teams with a win pct of 25% or less are 114-84-3 ATS (57.6%) as a home dog of 7 points or more in the last 20 years.

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Sunday, Nov. 19

4:05 p.m. ET · FOX

SF -12 · O/U: 41.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

"Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 169-112-6 ATS (60%) since 2018 & 32-18-2 ATS this season.

Week 11: TB, NYJ, PIT, NYG, TEN

It is smart to fade bad teams off a recent win. Teams 1-4 SU in their last 5 games, coming off a win are 79-136-1 SU (36.7%) last 20 years.

Week 11: ARI, TB

Teams going from EST to PST to play on the road have performed well recently – going 71-51-5 ATS (58%) since 2016.

Baker is 4-9 ATS last 3 seasons off SU win. He doesn’t do the streak thing.

Bucs are 1-4 in last five games SU. Bowles’ 4-game losing streak prior to Titans win is longest SU losing streak since 2018 with Jets.

Bowles lets losing streaks continue. After a loss, he’s 19-33 SU in his next game, ranked 140th of 147 coaches last 20 years.

Baker Mayfield is 35-44-1 ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,079 (272nd of 282 QBs in the last 20 years).

Baker is 22-20 ATS as an underdog and 13-24-1 ATS as a favorite

Todd Bowles team have struggled mightily off of a loss. They are 19-33 SU, 21-29-2 ATS in that spot, including 4-9-1 ATS with the Bucs.

Todd Bowles is one of the worst coaches in the NFL as an underdog.

14-40 SU, 22-29-3 ATS as an underdog (24-16 SU as a favorite)

His 22-29-3 ATS mark is 140th of 147 coaches last 20 years and worst of all active head coaches.

Bucs had the longest ATS road losing streak in the NFL entering the season (6 games) and then covered and won on the road in Minnesota in Week 1 and in New Orleans in Week 4, then they covered in Buffalo on TNF.

Bucs are 1 of 2 teams undefeated ATS on the road this season: Jaguars.

Bucs haven’t started 4-0 ATS on the road since 2012.

Baker has been an under machine since start of last year, 14-5 in that span including 5 straight unders until Texans game

Bowles in his career as HC is horrible SU as a dog, 14-40 SU and 12-38 in last 5 seasons.

2022: 3-9

2021: 4-11

2020: 3-10

2019: 0-4

2018: 2-4

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San Francisco 49ers

49ers home ATS run:

Until Bengals loss, 49ers had covered 10 straight at home. 49ers are 16-3 ATS at home in their last 19 games

Eagles, Chiefs and 49ers have yet to be underdogs this season. That will change this week when the Eagles are underdogs in Kansas City.

Teams to see line move 3 points or more away from you — ex. -3 to -6 — are 23-28-2 ATS this season

62-88-3 ATS since start of last year
119-152-4 ATS since 2020

Week 11: BAL, SF, DAL

The ride keeps on rolling. Teams who are coming off a win, breaking a 3+ game losing streak, while over .500 SU on the season, are 9-2 ATS in their next game since 2018.

Rest helps the losing. Teams on extended rest (8+ days) are 133-103-4 ATS on a 3+ game losing streak in the last 20 years.

First the Browns, then the Vikings, now the Bengals. The 49ers had suffered three-straight regular season losses. Dating back to last season, 49ers are 8-3 SU/ATS in their last 11 games off a loss after defeating Jacksonville.

When Kyle Shanahan is a favorite off a loss, he’s only 10-9 SU.

Under Kyle Shanahan, the San Francisco 49ers are 0-37 when trailing by 8 or more points in the 4th quarter.

Kyle Shanahan is now 1-31 when trailing by 3+ points entering the 4th quarter.

Brock Purdy in October or later at Iowa State and with 49ers: 25-12 SU at Iowa St and 10-4 SU with the 49ers (35-16 SU)

Purdy is 8-1 ATS at home, just 3-5 ATS on road.

49ers had scored 30+ points in 8 straight regular season games, the longest such streak for an NFC team since the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams in 1999-2000 (14). Then they scored 17 in Cleveland, Minnesota, and vs Bengals.

After scoring 17 pts or less in 3 straight games, when teams are favored in that next game they are 63-81-3 ATS last 20 years.

In games Christian McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers are 18-4 SU, 15-7 ATS.

McCaffrey had a TD in 17 consecutive games prior to last week, a 49er record. McCaffrey tied Colts RB/WR Lenny Moore who did it in 1963-64.

Most profitable 49ers QB ATS last 20 years: Garoppolo 35-25-1 ATS, Shaun Hill 12-4 ATS, Purdy 11-6 ATS

49ers are 30-19 ATS last three seasons – 4th-most profitable team in NFL (DET, DAL, CIN, SF)

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Sunday, Nov. 19

4:25 p.m. ET · CBS

LAR -1 · O/U: 46.5

Seattle Seahawks

Over .500 SU teams with a negative average SU point differential in November or later are 143-171-13 ATS (45.5%) last 20 years.

Week 11: CIN, SEA, PIT

Geno Smith is 20-16-2 ATS as a dog, but only 10-13 ATS as a favorite.

Geno has performed well off a loss. He’s 20-14 ATS. After a SU win, he’s only 8-13-2 ATS.

Geno is 0-3 ATS vs. Rams, but 2-1 SU

Geno is 0-3 ATS or worse vs. two teams: Rams, 49ers

Pete Carroll teams usually start slow before they get going…

Carroll in Weeks 1 & 2: 11-16-1 ATS
Carroll in Week 3 on: 110-93-7 ATS

Carroll is 1-5 ATS in his last 6 games vs. NFC West and he’s 3-8 ATS in his last 11 road games vs. NFC West opponents.

Since 2019, Carroll is 11-17 ATS vs. NFC West, 3rd-worst coach vs. his own division in that span (Stefanski, Nagy, Carroll).

Carroll is 53-39-3 ATS as an underdog. Carroll has been .500 ATS or better as an underdog eight straight years. Carroll is also 31-24-1 ATS as a dog vs. team over .500 SU on the season.

Against under .500 SU opponents, Pete Carroll is 27-20 ATS at home and 22-28-2 ATS on the road.

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Los Angeles Rams

Rams scored just 3 points vs. Packers and are now dogs. Those teams (dogs off 3 points or less) are 124-88-7 ATS last 20 years.

Rest tends to help losing streaks. Teams on extended rest (8 days or more) on a 3-game losing streak or more, are 133-103-4 ATS last 20 years.

Matthew Stafford is 4-12-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season – 2nd-worst mark in the NFL. Last 5 years, he is 21-39-2 2H ATS, the 3rd-worst mark in the NFL, ahead of just Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert.

Stafford is 29-73 SU as an underdog in his career, including 1-8 SU last two seasons. A $100 bettor is down $2,546 last 20 years, worst in the NFL.

Stafford can’t hold a lead. He’s 31-56-2 2H ATS after leading at half. Haven’t covered in reg season with this since before Christmas 2021 — 9 straight.

5-13-1 w Rams
26-43-1 w Lions

He’s 47-47-6 2H ATS when trailing at HT.

Stafford hasn’t finished above .500 ATS in a season since 2018 – he was 2-6-1 ATS last year, worst season since 2013. The Rams and Stafford are 4-3-1 ATS this season. 0-1 ATS w/o Stafford

Stafford can’t beat good teams. He’s 31-66 SU and 36-59-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU – least profitable QB SU and ATS in this spot last 20 years. He is 8-9 SU and 6-11 ATS with Rams in this spot.

When Stafford faces a team .500 SU or worse, he is 57-37 SU and 47-43-4 ATS.

When Stafford faces a “good” team at home, he’s 19-32 ATS, including 8-16 ATS since 2016 and 3-6 ATS with the Rams.

Stafford is 15-18-2 ATS with Rams – 2nd-least profitable QB for franchise last 20 years (Bulger)

Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have worked together well. Since Kupp came back:
Kupp: 45 targets, 23 rec | Puka: 44 targets, 25 rec

Puka has 827 rec yds and 64 rec through 9 career games. 64 receptions is most for any player thru 9 games, and 827 yards is 4th-most through 9 games.

Sean McVay’s teams tend to perform better early in the season vs. late:
Sept/Oct: 36-17 SU
Nov. on: 34-30 SU

McVay is 25-16-1 ATS vs. NFC West & 34-38-3 ATS vs. all other divisions
ARI: 10-2-1 ATS | SEA: 10-4 ATS (20-6-1 ATS combined)
SF: 4-10 ATS

How has McVay performed as an underdog? 13-24 SU, but 19-16-2 ATS (25-12 in a 6-pt teaser).

This line opened Rams +3 and now lists them around pick’em. McVay is one of a few coaches who usually win games when the line moves toward them (ex. -5 to -7). McVay is 43-19 SU and 33-26-3 ATS when the line moves towards his teams, including 20-7 SU at home.

McVay is 10-4 ATS vs. Pete Carroll, most profitable opposing coach (6 straight ATS Ws, 9-1 last 10 ATS).

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Sunday, Nov. 19

4:25 p.m. ET · CBS

BUF -7.5 · O/U: 39.5

New York Jets

Jets are coming off a road game in Vegas. Teams after playing the Raiders on the road since they moved to Las Vegas are just 10-18 ATS since 2020, that is the 2nd-worst mark of any previous road team in the NFL in that span (worst is Atlanta).

Tough to play off a party city. Last decade, teams to play on road, coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 61-95-6 ATS (39%).

The Jets haven't scored an offensive TD in 36 consecutive drives. Their last offensive TD came in the 1st quarter in Week 8 vs. the Giants.

Teams playing on the road off a loss are 282-246-13 ATS since 2019 and 91-77-5 ATS last two seasons. Business trip bet.

Week 11: CIN, NYJ, TEN, LAC, NYG

"Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games with a total below 42 are 169-112-6 ATS (60%) since 2018 & 32-18-2 ATS this season.

Week 11: TB, NYJ, PIT, NYG, TEN

Teams to travel from PST to EST have had 1H success going 106-65-3 1H ATS since 2017.

Week 11: NYJ, WAS, LV, DET

Teams off a night game,who are road dogs this week win just 32.7% games since 1990.

Fewest SU wins, teams with win total of 9.5 or more

Jets, Chargers – 4

Six teams had double-digit win totals in the preseason. The Jets have faced 3 of them and they are 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS.

Jets have struggled vs. AFC East. They are 6-26 SU, 11-21 ATS vs. their own division since 2018 – the least profitable team both SU and ATS in the NFL.

In 13 division games, Robert Saleh is 3-11 SU, 6-8 ATS. Jets are 3-4 SU at home and 0-7 SU on the road vs. AFC East.

Jets have 3 wins with Zach Wilson as the starting QB this season. All three wins have required a 4th quarter comeback from Wilson and the Jets.

Wilson is tied with Kenny Pickett and Russell Wilson for the most 4Q comebacks in the NFL this season.

Bad history again for Zach? Wilson became the first player since the NFL merger to record the worst passer rating two years in a row last year. In 2023, he currently has the 4th-worst passer rating in the NFL, ahead of just Daniel Jones, Tyson Bagent and Ryan Tannehill.

Wilson and the Jets have struggled to win against good offensive teams.
20 PPG or higher: 5-13 SU
19.9 PPG or less: 6-5 SU

With Aaron Rodgers hurt, the Jets start a “backup QB” for the rest of the season. Jets have struggled mightily through the years when they are forced to go to a backup QB. They are 6-29 SU, 13-21-1 ATS over the last decade when starting a backup QB.

Jets are historically a struggling road team. They are 24-39-4 ATS on the road since 2015, under .500 ATS on the road in 7 of the last 8 years.

Jets last won a road night game back in 2018 against Lions

Jets are +570 to make the playoffs right now. Jets haven’t made playoffs in 12 seasons – longest drought in NFL.

Longest Active Playoff Drought 4 Major Sports
12 – Jets
12 – Sabres

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Buffalo Bills

Good 3rd down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% 3rd down rate or higher, facing a team who is below that threshold, is 316-252-19 ATS (55.6%) last 20 years.

Week 11: DAL, BUF

Don’t just expect the bounce back. In the last decade, teams off a loss, who are a home favorite the next week, also acting as the public side, are 185-220-9 ATS (45.7%).

Week 11: MIA, JAC, BUF

Teams to lose as a 7-point favorite or higher in their previous game are 150-121-12 ATS (55.4%) last 20 years.

Bills are 15-3 SU in their last 18 home games, including 25-6 SU in their last 31 home games.

Bills have lost six straight games ATS. The 6 straight ATS losses are a career high for Josh Allen. Bills haven’t lost six straight ATS since 1976, when they also lost 6 straight ATS.

Bills last lost 7 straight ATS back in 1970-71.

Josh Allen has thrown an INT in six straight games – the first time he’s done that in the regular season in his career.

December 19-28, 2020: last time Josh Allen didn’t have a turnover in consecutive regular season starts. Regular Season:
He has 71 INT since 2018, most in NFL
He has 56 fumbles since 2018, most in NFL.

Josh Allen has 60 wins in his career. 45 of those 60 wins have been by 7 points or more.

Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career. Allen is 31-19-3 ATS on 7 days rest (11th-most profitable QB ATS last 20 years in this spot)

He’s 7-9-1 ATS on short rest and 6-13-1 ATS on extended rest. Allen is 2-5 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or more on short rest

The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 56-35-3 against the second half spread. Since 2005, he’s the 2nd-most profitable QB on the second half spread of 255 QBs.

Bills defense allowed 24 to the Broncos last week. Josh Allen, Bills are 19-6 SU, 14-9-2 ATS game after allowing 24 pts or more – including 11-2 SU in their last 13 games in this spot.

Bills are now off of back-to-back losses to the Bengals and Broncos. Allen has only lost three straight games once in his career, back in 2019 to end his season. Allen is 7-1 SU off consecutive SU losses in his career.

As a home favorite, Allen, Bills are 31-8 SU. He’s 10th in the NFL in ML profitability last 10 years.

As a home favorite of 7 or more, Allen is 19-2 SU. He lost to the Colts in 2021 and the Broncos last week.

Allen is 27-5 SU as a favorite of 7 or more overall, including 11-1 SU off a loss.

When Allen is favored by 3 or more after a SU loss, he’s 15-3 SU, 9-7-2 ATS.

Josh Allen vs AFC East
NE: 7-3-1 ATS – Allen’s most profitable opponent ATS
MIA/NYJ: 9-12-1 ATS

Allen is 4-6 ATS vs. Jets – at 4-7 ATS, they would be his least profitable opponent ATS in his career

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Sunday, Nov. 19

8:20 p.m. ET · NBC

DEN -2.5 · O/U: 42.5

Minnesota Vikings

Josh Dobbs has started two night games in his career, both with Titans:
2022-23: at Jaguars, +6.5 = L, 20-16
2022: vs. Cowboys, +13.5 = L, 27-13

Vikings have the longest active winning streak in the NFL at 5 games SU.

Ride the wave. Teams on winning streaks, as underdogs, cover. Since 2020, 3+ game: 46-36-1 ATS. 5+ game: 17-12-1 ATS.

Vikings in night games under O’Connell
Four games, 2-2 SU/ATS. Both of his losses are against the Eagles at night.

Vikings have played 31 road night games since 2009, they are 7-24 SU in those games, 2nd-worst in the NFL ahead of just the Bengals.

Vikings are 9-0-1 to the first quarter under this season.

Kirk Cousins is now in Minnesota’s past and Josh Dobbs is the quarterback of the now. The Vikings' 21 pass TD is most in the NFL and their 2,724 pass yards is also most in the league.

With Kirk out, Minnesota will continue to go to a back up QB. Since 2015, only four backup QBs have started for Minnesota: Josh Dobbs, Jaren Hall, Sean Mannion and Case Keenum. They are 14-6 SU, 13-7 ATS in 20 games filling in for the Vikings.

Under Kevin O’Connell, Vikings are 4-6 SU/ATS as underdogs, but they’ve now covered 3 straight games as a dog – all wins.

The Vikings are 7-3 to the under this season. Between 2020-22, Minnesota was 34-16-1 to the over in that span.

Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell by time of day
1 p.m. ET or earlier: 10-8-1 ATS
2 p.m. ET or later: 3-6 ATS

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Denver Broncos

How have bad teams done after a win? Teams who won 6 games or fewer previous season and won their last game, are actually 6-4 SU this season, but almost 80 games under .500 SU in the last 20 years.

Week 11: ARI, CHI, DEN

Broncos have just one rushing TD entering their 10th game of the season this week. Only two teams in Super Bowl era have 0 rush TD through 9 games, last in 1995. Denver is tied with 2019 Jaguars and 2017 Dolphins most recently with 1 rush TD in 9 games.

Broncos are 1-8 against the 3rd quarter spread this season and 8-18 3Q ATS last two seasons.

Broncos are off an upset win in primetime last week in Buffalo and now play in primetime again this week. Those teams are 22-14 SU and 21-14-1 ATS in that 2nd night game, with the under 25-10-1 in those games, too.

Sean Payton in night games: 42-22 SU, 34-29-1 ATS. He’s 1-1 SU/ATS with Broncos.

Payton is 31-24-1 ATS at night with Brees, 3-5 ATS with all other QBs

Payton is 12-11 SU as a dog at night. He’s won SU as a dog with 4 diff QBs: Brees, Bridgewater, Russ and Taysom Hill.

Russell Wilson is 35-18-1 SU, 31-20-1 ATS in night games during his career. That 31-20-1 ATS mark at night is 4th-best among 204 QBs last 20 years

He is 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS with Broncos and 33-14-1 SU, 28-17-1 ATS with Seahawks. Russ is 23-5 SU in night games at home and 12-13-1 SU away from home

Russ has covered the spread in three straight. He hadn’t done it in three straight since October, 2020 with Seahawks. His last 4-game ATS win streak came back in same 2020 stretch. Russ hasn’t covered 5 straight since 2015.

Broncos defense is 10th in EPA/play since Week 6. In Weeks 1-5, they were 32nd, last in the NFL.

Wilson is 14-24 SU over the last three seasons, he was 107-52-1 SU in his first 9 seasons in the NFL.

Wilson is 5-12 SU in his last 17 starts and 6-15 SU in his last 21 starts for the Broncos.

Wilson with Seahawks vs. with Broncos
DEN: 8-16 SU, 9-14-1 ATS
SU mark is 4th-worst in NFL, ATS is 7th-worst

SEA: 113-60-1 SU, 90-77-7 ATS

Wilson’s 8-16 SU mark has lost $100 bettors $622 with Broncos, making him the 2nd-least profitable QB on ML for Broncos last 20 years (Orton, -$628)

Most profitable coaches ATS last 20 yrs: 1. Belichick, 2. McCarthy, 3. Payton

Payton has gone 7 straight years w/ his team above .500 ATS (2015-21). In 16 seasons, his teams are 13-3 above .500 ATS and 9-5-2 to the over on their win total

Broncos home games have been an under-fest. They are 14-8 last three years and 45-27-1 since 2015 – all eight years .500 or better to the under at home. This season, they are 3-2 to the under at home.

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Monday, Nov. 20

8:20 p.m. ET · ESPN

KC -3 · O/U: 45.5

Philadelphia Eagles

Unders on Monday Night Football are 11-1 in 2023 and 56-28-1 since 2019.

Eagles, Chiefs and 49ers have yet to be underdogs this season. That will change this week when the Eagles are underdogs in Kansas City.

Eagles and Chiefs are the first match up of teams being favorites in their first 9 games of the season since 49ers-Cowboys back in 1995. No, not Young-Aikman, but Grbac-Wilson, Elvis Grbac and Wade Wilson. Aikman started but was hurt in 1Q. DAL was -13 and lost outright.

Teams to be underdogs for the first time in their 10th game or later are 6-23 SU and 12-16-1 ATS, with unders going 16-13 in those games since 1990.

When the Eagles are trailing, they can get back in the game quick. They are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games when trailing by 10 pts or more at any point, including 2-0 SU this season.

All other teams are 15-107 SU (15-101-6 ATS) when trailing by 10 points or more at any point in the game this year.

Eagles have a brutal schedule coming up: KC, BUF, SF, DAL, SEA. Philly’s next five games are against teams with a combined record of 30-16 SU this season.

Impact of Lane Johnson:
Without him: 13-22 SU
With him: 87-48-1 SU

Hurts is 19-8 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, 2nd-best mark of any QB in the NFL.

In his career, Hurts is 3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS as an underdog and he’s 1-6 SU as a dog in his last 7 starts.

Eagles are 12-3 1H ML in last 15. Hurts is 27-17-3 1H ML in his career. Since start of last season, Eagles are 22-6-1 1H ML – most 1H ML wins in NFL.

Hurts has excelled at home, and has been less than fantastic on the road.
Home: 16-6-1 ATS (3rd of 92 QBs since 2020)
Road/Neutral: 9-14-1 ATS (90th of 92 QBs since 2020)

The Eagles are 22-2 SU when Jalen Hurts plays the last two regular seasons.

Hurts doesn’t love facing good offenses. Eagles are 9-10 SU vs. team scoring 24 PPG or more on the year and 21-4 SU under that mark.

Hurts in night games: 9-5 SU, 9-4-1 ATS
Home in night games: 7-3 SU, 8-1-1 ATS (1-3 ATS away from home)

Last 20 years, Hurts is 5th-most profitable ATS at home in night games (Rodgers, Russ, Peyton, Rivers, Hurts). Since his first start in 2020, Hurts’ 8-1-1 ATS mark in this spot is best in the NFL

Eagles have 30 sacks through nine games this season (T-4th) and they had 70 sacks last season – 3rd-most regular season all-time (72 ‘84 CHI, 71 ‘89 MIN).

This year, they are pressuring opposing QBs at rate of 5.1% plays. Mahomes is 12-2 SU vs. defenses pressuring QBs at 5% or higher. Two losses were both to Buffalo.

Eagles had won a Philly record 11 straight road games SU, until loss to Jets

Hurts entered 2023 3-10 ATS as a road/neutral favorite. He’s now 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in 2023.

Hurts career on extended rest (8+ days): 7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS

Hurts has only played two road games on 10+ days rest – Earlier this year in Tampa. Won 25-11 as 6-point favorites and 2021 in Vegas. They lost 33-22.

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Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes has played in 38 night games in his career, four Saturday games and now a game in Germany in the morning – a total of 43 “primetime” games. He is 33-10 SU, 25-17-1 ATS in those games.

The Chiefs are 27-10 SU, 20-16-1 ATS in night games with Mahomes, who is 15-1 SU in his last 16 night games.

Mahomes has had 24 passes dropped so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL. He had 33 last year, 7th-most in the NFL.

Mahomes starts by point spread
Favorite: 93 (47-45-1 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
Home: 26-26-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 29-20-1 ATS
1 p.m. ET: 14-16-1 ATS | After 1 p.m. slate: 39-29-1 ATS

-10 or higher: 25 (11-13-1 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 78 (44-33-1 ATS)

-3 or less/or dog: 27 (20-6-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 76 (35-40-1 ATS)

In his career, Mahomes is 10-3 ATS for the Chiefs the game after scoring 21 points or less.

Mahomes is just 9-13 ATS after a SU win dating back to 2022, the 2nd-least profitable QB ATS in the NFL ahead of only Mac Jones.

Mahomes vs. Hurts III:
Super Bowl 52: Chiefs 38, Eagles 35 (PHI -1.5)
October 3, 2021: Chiefs 42, Eagles 30 (KC -6.5 in PHI)

Chiefs are off a bye week playing Eagles on MNF at home. Teams off bye playing at home at night aare 41-24 SU (63.1%) last 20 years. Home win % is 61.9% if not playing at night off the bye.

Mahomes is 32-22-1 to the under in his home starts. 12-3 to the under at home over the last two seasons, the most profitable home QB to under.

Chiefs are 2-7 against the 4th quarter spread this season and 16-33 4Q ATS the last three seasons.

Mahomes and Andy Reid are off extended rest for this game vs. Eagles. Mahomes is 24-6 SU, 15-14-1 ATS on extended rest (8+ days) Mahomes has played at home 16 times on extended rest; he’s 14-2 SU, 8-8 ATS. His two losses coming to Tom Brady in the AFC Championship Game in 2019 and game 1 of this season to the Detroit Lions. Mahomes had won 12 consecutive games SU in that spot until Detroit.

Mahomes career based on rest:
6 days or less: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS
7 days: 43-12 SU, 29-25-1 ATS
8+ days: 24-6 SU, 15-14-1 ATS

Reid last 20 years on 8+ days rest: 58-26 SU, 47-36-1 ATS. When rest comes early, he does great.
Sept-Oct: 22-9 ATS
Nov on: 25-27-1 ATS

Mahomes is 30-1 SU in November and December in last 31 games. He is 36-5 SU in Nov/Dec in his career (48-8 SU in Nov, Dec & Jan).

On extended rest (8+ days), Reid & Chiefs are 33-13 SU, including 21-4 SU since 2019. QBs to beat them since 2019: Brady, Matt Ryan, Rodgers, Goff

Highest SU win pct in night games last 20 years (min. 20 starts)
Peyton, Mahomes, Brady, Wentz, Russ, Brees, Dak

Mahomes is 23-4 SU, 14-11-1 ATS vs. NFC in his career. He’s 15-1 SU as a favorite of more than 4 points vs. NFC.

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NFL Public Sides & Line Moves ⤵️

Biggest NFL Week 11 Public Sides
Dolphins (-13.5) vs. LV					91% of bets
49ers (-12) vs. TB					84% of bets

Biggest NFL Week 11 Line Moves
Cowboys (-6.5 to -10.5) at CAR
49ers (-7.5 to -12) vs. TB

NFL Ticket Count & Public Totals ⤵️

Most Bet Games By Ticket Count in Week 11
Steelers at Browns (-1.5)					75k bets
Bears at Lions (-8)					70k bets

Biggest NFL Week 11 Public Totals
NYJ-BUF (O/U: 39.5)					87% of bets to under
ARI-HOU (O/U: 48)					86% of bets to over

System: Good teams later in the season when facing bad teams cover long term.

Matches: DET, DAL, JAC, SEA

$$$: Fade bad team vs. good team late season

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 or 2018-19 or 2017-18 or 2016-17 or 2015-16 or 2014-15 or 2013-14 or 2012-13 season

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

the team's win percentage is between 0% and 40%

the opposing team's win percentage is between 60% and 100%

the team's game number is between 8 and 100

$2,215

WON

210-181-12

RECORD

54%

WIN%

View System

System: Bet the under when both teams are on extended rest.

Matches: KC/PHI

$$$: Bet Under Recently Both Teams Long Rest

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 or 2018-19 season

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

betting on the Under

the home team has had between 8 and 100 days off

the Visitor team has had between 8 and 100 days off

$4,554

WON

101-47-1

RECORD

68%

WIN%

View System

System: Get ready to bet bad teams. At least they are at home this week.

Matches: CAR

$$$: Bet Big Home Dogs, Bad Teams

the team's win percentage is between 0% and 25%

the spread is between 7 and 100

the team is the Home team

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

$1,936

WON

114-84-3

RECORD

58%

WIN%

View System

Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet — which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.

• Watch out for Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell for TNF. Another +450 hit in W10 launches him into Top 5.

Top 5 Biggest TD Hits of W10:
S. Shepard +2800
L. Cager +2000
AT Perry +1800
I. Smith-Marsette +1400
B. Wright +1100

Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each and every week in 2023.

• Ihmir Smith-Marsette +6500! Double Whammy for CAR D/ST First TD at +3500.
• Arthur Smith & Falcons WR Scotty Miller doesn't like your Bijan Robinson First TD bet.

League Trends ⤵️

Keeping Up

Public Revenge

1. Public Sides: 89-56 SU, 80-60-5 ATS ($1,248) this season.

The most profitable start for the public through Week 10 since 2005. 2nd-best? 2009, +$800.

Through Week 10, public was 17 games below .500 ATS last year and 15 games below in 2021.

2. Double-digit favorites are 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS this season.

1. The average line for a favorite this season is -4.7, the shortest for any full season in the Wild Card era (since 1990).

Wind Time

Games Impacted

Games with 7+ MPH winds are 31-14-1 to the under this season and 175-114-1 (61%) to the under since 2021.

Current matches this week: PIT/CLE, TB/SF, NYJ/BUF, LV/MIA, NYG/WAS, TEN/JAC, PHI/KC

The INT Party

Interception Props

Top-5 Most Profitable NFL QB INT Props – 2023

1) Mac Jones +4.95U
2) J. Garoppolo +4.1U
3) P. Mahomes +3.7U
4) J. Allen +3.5U
5) J. Fields +3.4U

Plus-Money QB INTs:
Week 9: 4-4 +0.95U
2023: 62-55 +20.1U

Super Bowl Futures ⤵️

Biggest Super Bowl Riser

Seattle Seahawks: 30-1 (SEA was 50-1 to win SB last week)

Biggest Super Bowl Faller

Buffalo Bills: 22-1 (BUF was 16-1 to win SB last week)

Win Total Tracker ⤵️

NFL Win Total Grid and Progress

Trending Up 📈
Texans					5-4	Win Total: 6.5
Colts					5-5	Win Total: 6.5
Raiders					5-5	Win Total: 6.5
Lions					7-2	Win Total: 9.5
Vikings					6-4	Win Total: 8.5
Steelers					6-3	Win Total: 8.5
Seahawks					6-3	Win Total: 8.5
Eagles					8-1	Win Total: 11.5
Ravens					7-3	Win Total: 10.5
Browns					6-3	Win Total: 9.5
Cowboys					6-3	Win Total: 9.5
Jaguars					6-3	Win Total: 9.5
Dolphins					6-3	Win Total: 9.5
Buccaneers					4-5	Win Total: 6.5
Commanders					4-6	Win Total: 6.5
Chiefs					7-2	Win Total: 11.5

Trending Down 📉
Niners					6-3	Win Total: 10.5
Saints					5-5	Win Total: 9.5
Bills					5-5	Win Total: 10.5
Falcons					4-6	Win Total: 8.5
Broncos					3-5	Win Total: 8.5
Rams					3-6	Win Total: 6.5
Cardinals					2-8	Win Total: 4.5
Bengals					5-4	Win Total: 11.5
Chargers					4-5	Win Total: 9.5
Jets					4-5	Win Total: 9.5
Bears					3-7	Win Total: 7.5
Packers					3-6	Win Total: 7.5
Titans					3-6	Win Total: 7.5
Patriots					2-8	Win Total: 7.5
Giants					2-8	Win Total: 7.5
Panthers					1-8	Win Total: 7.5

ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ⤵️

Award Betting Progress ⤵️

NFL Awards Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Odds	3rd In Odds
NFL MVP	Patrick Mahomes (+300)	Jalen Hurts (+300)	Lamar Jackson (+500)
Offensive POY	Christian McCaffrey (+140)	Tyreek Hill (+140)	AJ Brown (+550)
Defensive POY	Myles Garrett (+175)	Micah Parsons (+200)	T.J. Watt (+225)
Offensive ROY	CJ Stroud (-2000)	Jahmyr Gibbs (+1800)	Puka Nacua (+1800)
Defensive ROY	Jalen Carter (-210)	Devon Witherspoon (+175)	Brian Branch (+1600)
Comeback POY	Damar Hamlin (-200)	Tua Tagovailoa (+400)	Joshua Dobbs (+475)
Coach Of The Year	Dan Campbell (+150)	DeMeco Ryans (+300)	Mike McDaniel (+600)
Updated as of October 11th

Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:

• Here comes CJ Stroud. He is down to 20-1 to win MVP award. He was 200-1 entering Week 9. Not to mention, he is -2000 to win OROY.
• Myles Garrett is now the favorite to win DPOY for the first time since Week 8.
• Damar Hamlin saw time in Week 10, so his comeback odds went to -200. Josh Dobbs went from OTB in Week 9 to now +475 to win the award.

Trivia Instructions

For this weeks trivia question, we are just looking for one answer. Click the button below to reveal the right answer

Trivia Question: Joe Burrow is 15-2 ATS as an underdog of three points or more. Name the two QBs he didn't cover against.

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