NFL Predictions Week 18: Spread & Over/Under Picks

NFL Predictions Week 18: Spread & Over/Under Picks

Don’t fall for the easy logic in the final week of the regular season. Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 100-64-4 (61.0%) against the spread (ATS).

That plays a big part in my NFL predictions & picks for Week 18. The following eliminated teams fit this trend:

• Panthers +5.5 vs. Bucs
• Titans +5.5 vs. Jaguars
• Cardinals +3 vs. Seahawks
• Bears +3 at Packers

The Bucs, Packers and Jaguars are three of the six teams that get into the postseason with a win, in addition to the Colts and Texans, who play each other, and the Bills, who play a motivated Dolphins team on Sunday Night Football in a game that will decide the AFC East. Keep in mind that it's possible for Buffalo to clinch a playoff spot before kickoff if the Jaguars lose or tie.

Teams that the market perceives as "dead" actually have a chance to play spoiler in what becomes a Super Bowl for them of sorts. They may also come out much looser, while the team that needs to win might play tighter while having to cover a usually inflated spread. Ultimately, these are still professional athletes playing for jobs, contracts and incentives.

You see it every year with major upsets in the final week of the regular season. I list a number of infamous examples from previous seasons here but look no further than last year when the eliminated Lions upset the Packers to send Green Bay packing. You may also recall two seasons ago when the Jaguars pulled off a huge upset over the Colts, who just needed to win to get in as two-touchdown favorites.

To illustrate these spots another way, teams with a win percentage between 40-60% in Week 16 or later have gone just 29-72-5 (28.7%) ATS against opponents with an 8-25% worse winning percentage, failing to cover by 3.75 points per game on average since 2003. This week, that applies to the Jaguars and Seahawks, who play the Titans and Cardinals, respectively.

Before I share my thoughts and the updated scenarios on every Week 18 game, here are two more nuggets to keep in mind when handicapping this weekend's games:

Seven teams could potentially rest all or some starters:

• Eagles, 49ers, Rams, Lions, Ravens, Chiefs, Browns

Six teams find themselves in win-and-in scenarios:

• Texans and Colts (play each other), Bucs (at Panthers), Jaguars (at Titans), Packers (vs. Bears), Bills (at Dolphins)

Five teams need to win and get help to reach the postseason:

• Steelers, Falcons, Saints, Seahawks, Vikings

OK, let's now get into all 16 matchups for NFL Week 18.

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The Ravens already locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC and have nothing to play for on Saturday. A number of starters have already been ruled out, like Marlon Humphrey, Kevin Zeitler and Odell Beckham Jr. I wouldn't be surprised if Ronnie Stanley, Kyle Hamilton or Zay Flowers join them.

The big inactive, of course, is quarterback Lamar Jackson. Getting the start under center is Tyler Huntley, who has demonstrated he's more than capable of winning games, having almost won a road playoff game against the Bengals last season.

Meanwhile, the Steelers could really use a win in the Charm City to improve their postseason chances. Pittsburgh would clinch with a win plus a loss by either the Bills or Jaguars. If the Steelers come up short, they still have about a 20% chance of making the playoffs heading into Sunday, but would need the Titans to beat the Jaguars in addition to the Broncos defeating the Raiders for a tiebreaker as long as Colts-Texans doesn't finish in a tie.

If both teams were at full strength, I'd make the Ravens close to an 11-point home favorite. Therefore, even if Jackson and a number of key starters don't suit up, I still can't get to this price. This is a well-coached Baltimore team with outstanding roster depth, which is one of the reasons they've enjoyed so much success in the preseason under Harbaugh.

In a similar situation back in 2019, the Ravens, who had already locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, hosted the 8-7 Steelers, who needed to win to get into the playoffs. Seven Baltimore starters didn't play (six of whom were Pro Bowlers), including Jackson. However, even with Robert Griffin III under center, the Ravens beat Duck Hodges and the Steelers 28-10 as two-point home underdogs.

I think this is too much of an overreaction in the market after accounting for Baltimore's backups taking on a desperate Pittsburgh team in a must-win situation. These are rivals, so I'm sure Baltimore would love to send them home packing. Plus, it's a chance for a lot of the depth guys to showcase what they've got, while having the ability to play much looser than the Steelers. Baltimore won't lie down here against a potentially worn-out Pittsburgh bunch that will come back across the country to play its second straight road game and 12th game in a row following a mid-October bye week.

For what it's worth, when Mike Tomlin and Harbaugh meet, the underdog has gone 23-5-3 ATS (82.1%). And when the line closes at 3 or higher in this rivalry, the underdog owns a ridiculous 19-2 ATS (90.5%) record.

Pick: Ravens +4 (Play to +3 or better)

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYQn22SiQwI

This AFC showdown is pretty straightforward with the winner punching their ticket to the dance and the loser headed home.

If the Jaguars win, the victor would secure a wild-card spot. However, if the Titans pull off the home upset over the Jags, the winner will clinch the division and host a wild-card game next weekend. There is a scenario where both get in with a tie, but I won't get into that mess.

This looks pretty fairly priced, but I'd lean Houston if forced to make a bet. This will likely come down to which quarterback makes fewer mistakes.

You have to attack Houston through the air, but Gardner Minshew is long overdue for more mistakes in that department. That said, while I do trust C.J. Stroud more, this isn't an easy spot for a rookie on the road.

Cleveland will have no incentive on Sunday since it is already locked into the No. 5 seed, awaiting to find out which team will win the AFC South and host the Browns next weekend. With all the injuries the Browns have dealt with, I'd assume Kevin Stefanski will sit most of the important starters (including quarterback Joe Flacco) and any player who has had injury issues of late.

Meanwhile, after getting eliminated from playoff contention last week, the Bengals will simply be playing for pride against their in-state divisional rival.

I can't imagine Cleveland does much on offense outside of hand it off and trying to get out of dodge as healthy as possible. Cincy likely wins this cold-weather affair with ease against a Browns bunch that will likely focus on bleeding the clock over anything else, but their defense still has much stronger depth than their offense.

Pick: Under 38.5 (Play to 38 or higher)

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The Lions will more than likely finish as the No. 3 seed in the NFC. However, they do have a chance to move up to the No. 2 seed with a win and losses by both the Eagles and Cowboys. Since that scenario is very unlikely, Dan Campbell has an interesting decision to make in regard to his starters.

To me, he seems like the type of coach to play everybody regardless, which he stated he plans to do, although he obviously could change his mind and simply begin the game with his starters while monitoring the scores of the two NFC East clashes that could impact Detroit's seeding.

It's worth noting that Detroit could potentially get a couple of key defensive starters back from IR. I'm not sure James Houston will be ready to go, but Alim McNeill and C.J. Gardner-Johnson could provide a boost to Detroit's much-maligned stop unit. At the minimum, I'm sure Campbell wants to get them live game reps before the playoffs.

In regards to the Vikings, even after an embarrassing loss to the Packers, they still have slim playoff hopes (~3%). In order to get in, Minnesota will need a win in addition to losses by the Packers, Seahawks and either the Saints or Bucs.

Keep an eye out for who Minnesota decides to start at quarterback. Head coach Kevin O'Connell said he considered all three options — Nick Mullens, Joshua Dobbs and Jaren Hall — but hasn't publicly disclosed his decision yet. (Update: Mullens will start.)

Minnesota will certainly have full motivation while there's a chance Detroit does indeed sit or pull its starters at some point. That uncertainty makes the Vikings an interesting moneyline underdog option.

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The Jaguars can clinch the AFC South with a win in the Music City on Sunday afternoon. However, if they can't get the job done, they could still sneak into the playoffs if the Ravens beat the Steelers on Saturday. If so, believe it or not, Jacksonville would need the Raiders to beat the Broncos to clinch a wild-card berth.

However, if Pittsburgh pulls it out, Jacksonville would be eliminated with a loss.

I bet the Titans in what I think is an over-inflated line based on the situation regardless of whether Will Levis will be healthy enough to start. If he can't go, head coach Mike Vrabel confirmed Ryan Tannehill will get the start.

I'm just not sold on all of Jacksonville's recent issues being solved because of one blowout home win against the 2-14 Panthers. We still don't know if Trevor Lawrence will suit up and how healthy he will be if he does.

The Jaguars could also be shorthanded once again at wide receiver, which is critical against a porous Tennessee secondary. This is still an inconsistent offense with an untrustworthy offensive line and a defense with holes on the back end.

We saw the Jaguars choke in this spot two years ago and I wouldn't be surprised if history repeated itself against a Tennessee team that I expect to show up in the spoiler role after a very disappointing season.

I expect Vrabel to have his team ready for what will now become their Super Bowl.

The Titans have major flaws, particularly along the offensive line and on the back end of a beat-up defense, but it's still a team that has lost seven games to playoff — or potential playoff — teams by one possession. They've also played much better in true home games, going 4-3 with all three losses coming by a field goal against the Texans, Colts and Seahawks after blowing late leads — two of which came in overtime.

With just a few late bounces that went its way, Tennessee could easily have eight or nine wins and be right in the thick of the cluttered AFC South race.

For what it's worth, Vrabel has gone 24-14-2 (63.2%) ATS as an underdog of at least a field goal, covering by an average margin of four points per game.

Pick: Titans +5.5 (Play to +4.5 or better)

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This matchup of eliminated AFC East foes has zero playoff implications, but the outcome could impact the draft order in 2024.

I project the Patriots as a favorite of just under a field goal, so I have no interest in betting — or watching — this game. The Jets do fit the criteria as a classic teaser piece, crossing through both 3 and 7 in a game with a super low total of 30.5. However, New York is hard to trust with Trevor Siemian starting again, especially against a formidable New England defense.

If you're a Patriots fan, would you rather extend your winning streak over the Jets to 16 games or potentially get the second overall pick in the draft?

Keep an eye on the weather in this game with the forecast potentially calling for substantial winds and a potential snowstorm.

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Headed into the final weekend of the regular season, three teams can still win the lowly NFC South, including both the Falcons and Saints.

If the Falcons win and the Panthers upset the Bucs, Atlanta would win the division with an 8-9 record and likely host the Eagles next week. Conversely, a loss in the Big Easy would end Atlanta's season.

In regards to the Saints, the same sequence holds true with a victory and Tampa loss giving them the division crown, while a loss would eliminate them from playoff contention.

However, unlike Atlanta, New Orleans still does have an outside shot at securing a wild-card spot with a Tampa win. If both the Bucs and Saints come out victorious on Sunday, Dennis Allen's bunch would snag a wild-card berth if the Seahawks and Packers also both go down (or tie).

As favorites, fading Derek Carr (20-37-2 ATS, 35.1%) and Dennis Allen (7-16-1 ATS, 30.4%) is never a bad idea, but I'd like to get a +3.5 before I jump in.

The New Orleans run defense has surprisingly taken a major step back this season, which is an area the Falcons can exploit. Meanwhile, I don't trust Carr, who is just 10-26-2 ATS as a favorite of at least a field goal in his career, to win by enough points with a very up-and-down offense that gets stuck in the mud way too often.

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The Panthers have already clinched the NFL's worst record, which really only benefits the Bears, who have their first-round draft pick. Therefore, Carolina will simply be playing for pride, incentives, and, in some cases, future jobs to close out the regular season with a chance to play spoiler at home over a division rival.

I think this line is way too high in a matchup of teams that met in December in Tampa, where the Bucs closed as 3.5-point favorites and only won by three. I think we're getting a bit of an inflated number due to the must-win nature of the game for the Bucs, who will clinch the NFC South win a win but head home for the offseason with a loss.

These teams also sit on opposite ends of the spectrum in our latest Luck Rankings with Tampa sitting in the top five and Carolina bringing up the rear in dead last. Historically, betting the unlucky team in these large discrepancy matchups has been extremely profitable since the inception of the rankings.

It's also not a terrible matchup for Carolina since Tampa has been wildly inefficient running the ball (29th DVOA). That should be welcome news for the Panthers, who have the league's worst run defense. Baker Mayfield came crashing back down to earth a bit last week, but he still has some looming regression based on a number of underlying metrics. Therefore, it wouldn't shock me to see a few mistakes against a now-healthy Carolina secondary.

Bryce Young has played a bit better of late at home, leading the Panthers to three straight covers at home. He can do enough here against an overrated and aging Tampa defense to keep this close.

Lastly, fading Mayfield and Todd Bowles has been very profitable in the past. For their careers, Baker has gone 7-17-1 (29.2%) ATS as a favorite of more than field goal while Bowles has gone 6-14-2 (30%) against the number. In a season completely void of joy, I expect the Panthers to show up in this spoiler spot and give Tampa a run for its money until the bitter end.

Pick: Panthers +5.5 (Bet to +4.5 or better)

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For the Packers, it's simple: win and clinch the No. 7 seed with a Rams win or the No. 6 seed with a Rams loss. While a loss doesn't eliminate Green Bay from the postseason, it would need plenty of help with losses by the Seahawks, Vikings (or tie) and either the Saints or Bucs.

Meanwhile, the surging Bears were eliminated last week despite a convincing win over the Falcons in the Windy City. However, I'm sure Chicago would love nothing more than to play spoiler over its hated division rival, who has won 24 of the last 27 head-to-head meetings, including nine in a row.

I was hoping to fade the Packers in this spot, but not at this current price. I expect a game effort from Chicago, but I'd need at least over a field goal before I consider the Monsters of Midway, who have only won twice away from home on the season against the Commanders and Vikings (with Joshua Dobbs), thanks in part due to six takeaways.

While the Packers should get starting cornerback Jaire Alexander back from suspension, they are dealing with a number of injuries at wide receiver that are worth monitoring. Although, injuries at wideout haven't seemed to bother Jordan Love in recent weeks.

Love's playing at a very high level — he's PFF's highest-graded passer (90.4) since Week 12. Since Nov. 1, Love has led Green Bay to a 6-3 record, throwing for 2,351 yards with 19 touchdowns to three interceptions with a 67% completion percentage and sparkling 105.5 passer rating.

This line looks pretty fair all things considered. For what it's worth, six straight Packers games have gone over the total with Love's efficient play and a defense that has been slipping for two months, especially if you remove performances against the Rams and Vikings, who started Brett Rypien and Jaren Hall, respectively.

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This AFC West clash features teams eliminated from playoff contention. While this outcome won't matter for either team this season, the result will impact next year's schedule and draft positioning for both squads.

Also, if the Jaguars and Steelers both lose, this game will decide which of those teams gets the final wild-card spot in the AFC due to tiebreaker rules. In that scenario, Jacksonville would get in with a Raiders win or tie, while Pittsburgh would go with a Broncos victory.

Other than that, the most intriguing angle for this game is Jarrett Stidham returning to Las Vegas to take on his old team. After taking over for the benched Derek Carr in the final two games for the Raiders last season, Stidham finds himself in the same exact situation for the benched Russell Wilson.

In a meaningless game on a fast track, I could see both teams airing it out a bit more and playing fairly aggressively, so this could be a sneaky over in a battle of backup quarterbacks playing for their future. Denver is also worth a look as a potential teaser piece since you can cross both 3 and 7 in a game with a total set below 40, even if I lean over at the current number.

The reeling Eagles lost a stunner at home to the Cardinals last week to fall to 1-4 over their last five games after a sizzling 10-1 start. As a result of that upset, Philadelphia no longer controls its own destiny in the NFC East.

In order to win the division, it will need to beat the Giants and hope the Cowboys somehow lose as near two-touchdown favorites against the Commanders.

Since that's not very likely, Nick Sirianni has hinted at potentially resting his starters in order to avoid injuries in a bad weather game on a treacherous surface at MetLife Stadium. Even if Sirianni decides to start Jalen Hurts and company, he could end up pulling his key starters if Dallas starts to pull away from Washington.

I bet the Giants, who almost came back from a huge deficit in Philadelphia on Christmas after Tyrod Taylor took over for Tommy DeVito. The Eagles are an absolute mess on both sides of the ball right now with Hurts unable to solve the blitz (which he'll see plenty of against New York), an unhappy A.J. Brown, underwhelming offensive play-calling from coordinator Brian Johnson and a defense that continues to search for answers under recently promoted Matt Patricia, who had a disastrous game plan for the Cardinals.

The vibes are completely off with the Eagles with recent reports swirling about a fractured locker room. As a result, I just find it difficult to see them fighting for a likely meaningless win against a Giants team that continues to play extremely hard for Brian Daboll. The Eagles just aren't playing well in any phase right now outside of special teams.

Throw in the potential of Philly sitting starters altogether — or at some point during the game — and I think this is way too many points for the home 'dog G-Men with Taylor, who I have as a significant upgrade over DeVito. Keep in mind that eight of the Eagles' 11 victories have come by one possession and they now only sport a +22 net scoring margin on the season.

Pick: Giants +5.5 (+4.5 or better)

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Seattle suffered a devastating home loss to Pittsburgh that left it no longer in control of its own destiny. In order for the Seahawks to make the playoffs, they need to win and hope that the Bears beat the Packers since a loss to Arizona or a Packers victory would end Seattle's season.

Meanwhile, the 4-12 Cardinals will look to stick that final nail in the coffin of their division rival by ending the season with their first consecutive wins after upsetting the Eagles.

I lean Arizona at home against a Seattle squad that has fallen apart late for the third straight season. The Seahawks have lost five of seven with the only two victories coming by a field goal apiece against the sliding Eagles and Titans thanks to last-minute game-winning touchdowns in both.

However, I was hoping to grab Jonathan Gannon's guys at over a field goal. After missing the initial number, I may look to tease the Cardinals up over a touchdown even in a game with a slightly higher total due to two vulnerable defenses.

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With Kansas City locked into the No. 3 seed, Patrick Mahomes will be playing on Wild Card Weekend for just the second time in his career. The Chiefs have no real incentive to play any key starters in Los Angeles against the Easton Stick and the Chargers, who I'm sure will play hard once again for interim head coach Giff Smith. With sweeping changes on the horizon in Bolt country, there is no shortage of players and coaches auditioning for future jobs.

Will it be enough? That likely depends on which starters Andy Reid decides to keep out and whether that leads to Los Angeles being able to get its anemic ground game going against a vulnerable Kansas City rush defense.

This is a difficult game to handicap, but the current line is probably in the right ballpark if the Chiefs list key starters as inactive and with backup quarterback Blaine Gabbert under center. Gabbert, who has only attempted five passes this season, hasn't made a start since 2018 and owns a career 13-35 record.

At the time of this writing, Reid had yet to make a decision on what he'll do, but history suggests he will go the rest route as he has done numerous times in the past. That includes two instances with the Chiefs, including a Week 17 game with the Chargers, who routed the Chiefs 38-21 with a healthy Justin Herbert at the helm.

It's worth noting that Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice are close to 1,000 yards receiving on the season, coming into the game with 984 and 938, respectively. With 16 more yards through the air, Kelce would become the seventh player in NFL history to reach the 1,000-yard receiving mark in eight straight seasons. Star defensive tackle Chris Jones is also close to a $1.25 million sack bonus incentive, but he did say he could use the rest earlier this week.

I'm not a big prop player, but the under on Kelce's receiving yards is worth a look depending on the number based on the premise that he'll get pulled after he gets 16 yards.

This is a bizarre NFC West matchup between teams that have already locked up playoff berths.

With the 49ers already having clinched the No. 1 overall seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, they have no real incentive to play their starters. However, while Christian McCaffrey and probably Trent Williams won't suit up, Deebo Samuel said he expects the starters to play "a good bit" in an interview earlier in the week.

What exactly does "a good bit" mean? Your guess is as good as mine.

In regards to the Rams, they clinched a wild-card spot and are currently slated to travel to Detroit in a 6 vs. 3 matchup. However, they could fall to the No. 7 seed with a loss and Packers win, which would send them to Dallas instead if the Cowboys take care of business against the Commanders.

Is that enough incentive for Sean McVay to play his starters or will he choose health and rest? History and some of the recent roster moves suggest he might go with the latter option, but it's hard to say for sure. (Update: Carson Wentz will start.)

I have no idea what to expect so it looks like an easy pass from a betting perspective. If I had to guess, this might play out more like a preseason game with the 49ers maybe playing most of their starters — excluding Brock Purdy — for a quarter or half, while the Rams are a bit more conservative. The 49ers do have better overall roster depth, which might be ultimately decide who covers this game.

For what it's worth, Puka Nacua is only 29 yards away from breaking the rookie receiving record.

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The Cowboys got an absolute gift when the Cardinals upset the Eagles, which put them in control of the NFC East, which has not had a repeat winner in 18 straight seasons.

With a win over the Commanders, the Cowboys would extend that streak, clinching the division and No. 2 seed in the NFC, setting them up to host a wild-card game in Jerry World. Dallas can also clinch the division and second overall seed with losses by the Eagles and Lions. However, if both the Cowboys and Eagles lose, Dallas would still finish as NFC East champs but could slip to the No. 3 seed if Detroit beats Minnesota.

This line is a bit inflated given the division implications for Dallas, which certainly hasn't played as well away from home. However, I'm not in a rush to back this Washington team that has the worst defense in the league and an offense that can't get out of its own way with Sam Howell seemingly lost in the sauce. Head coach Ron Rivera said he hasn't made a decision yet on whether Howell or Jacoby Brissett will start, and he doesn't want to let the Cowboys know ahead of time.

I just don't trust Howell right now and Brissett has actually looked competent running the offense, albeit over a very limited sample size. I do know based on a much larger data set that Brissett won't make key mistakes, which is half the battle when trying to cover a big number against a superior opponent.

I'd love to get +14 with Brissett under center, but I'll have to wait and see where we stand later in the week, so keep an eye out on the Action Network App to see if I end up betting this game. (Update: Howell will start.)

For what it's worth, the Cowboys laid an absolute egg in Washington in Week 18 last season with a chance to win the division, although they needed the Eagles to lose in that circumstance, which didn't happen. Dak Prescott had a horrendous game and the Cowboys lost 26-6 in embarrassing fashion.

We'll see if they learned from that defeat and show up with a better focus to close out the season. On paper, I'm sure the Commanders would like to play spoiler against their hated rival after a disastrous campaign.

Entering Week 18, the potential playoff scenarios in the AFC are pretty wild, primarily as a result of the possible paths of Miami and Buffalo.

With a win on Sunday night, the Bills would clinch the AFC East and the No. 2 overall seed, but they also could miss the postseason altogether with a loss depending on how the other games play out. Meanwhile, the Dolphins, who are guaranteed a playoff appearance, would clinch the No. 2 overall seed with a victory or could fall to the sixth seed and have to travel to Kansas City.

Buffalo could at least lock up a wild-card berth if either the Ravens or Titans win. If both of those teams pull off small upsets, the Bills would finish with the No. 6 seed (and head to Kansas City) with a loss to Miami. If only one of the two wins, Buffalo would fall to the No. 7 seed with a loss and set up a rematch with the Dolphins next weekend. However, if both fall short, it's division or bust for Josh Allen and company. Talk about drama!

The Bills match up pretty well with Dolphins on paper since their defense — which continues to trend up health-wise — can generate pressure without blitzing and excels at guarding the middle of the field, which is where Tua Tagovailoa loves to attack.

Plus, Miami is dealing with a plethora of key injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is not fully healthy and Jaylen Waddle's status remains in doubt for a second straight week. Even Tua and Tyreek Hill might not be at 100%.

Meanwhile, the defense lost Bradley Chubb in garbage time in Baltimore, which hurts the pass rush even more after previously losing Jaelan Phillips. Starting cornerback Xavien Howard is also expected to miss this game after getting carted off in the first half against the Ravens. That's not ideal against Buffalo's elite offensive attack.

I have a Bills Super Bowl future I'll be sweating all weekend, but don't think I'll have any action on the side if this price doesn't change, but I may look at the under. After adjusting for Miami's injuries and the matchup, I project Buffalo as close to a field goal favorite.

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