NFL Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for Week 7
Action Network Design. Pictured: Jared Goff and Justin Herbert, as we continue to break down NFL Best Bets Today for Week 7 in the NFL on Sunday.
NFL Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for Week 7
As NFL Sunday marches on in Week 7, our NFL best bets today continue, too.
For Dolphins vs Eagles best bets, head over to Dolphins vs Eagles Best Bets: Player Props, Spread Picks for Sunday Night Football.
Here's everything you need to know about our earlier NFL best bets today in Week 7. Click on the team logos or the expert pick to go directly to any of our specific NFL best bets today.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Steelers vs. Rams
The Rams will be without Kyren Williams in this game, but running back is one of the most replaceable positions in football. Williams has put up big fantasy outings, but the underlying efficiency hasn't been all that great.
I'm hoping there's not too much of a drop-off from Williams to the likes of Zach Evans and Royce Freeman. The Rams offense has been firing on all cylinders with Cooper Kupp back and ranks inside the top 10 in both pass DVOA and rush DVOA.
The Steelers can't keep winning games with defensive scores and an occasional splash play on offense. Eventually, that luck is going to run out.
Through the first five games, the Steelers offense is bottom eight in pass DVOA, dropback EPA, rush DVOA and rush EPA. The Rams haven't had an elite defense by any means, but that unit is close to league average against both the run and the pass.
The Rams seem to be hitting their stride while the Steelers need some changes if they want to continue to win games. I'll take the home team to win by a field goal.
Steelers vs. Rams
The Bucs have the second-worst success rate on early downs in the NFL at 37%. Pittsburgh is a full 3.2% worse than that, which is the same gap between 31 and 26. That’s how bad the Pittsburgh offense is through five games. They’ve played mostly above-average defenses to this point — Cleveland, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Las Vegas — but the offense’s inability to run the ball has persisted for more than a full season now.
The Steelers enter our Action Network luck rankings as by far the luckiest team in the NFL. Two defensive touchdowns to beat Cleveland at home despite running zero red-zone snaps. A stolen victory against Baltimore after the Ravens dropped seven passes and had high-leverage turnovers.
When you talk to the average person about the Steelers, you’d probably hear that the defense is elite and dominant to make up for the anemic offense. I’d push back against that and say that on a play-to-play basis, the Steelers defense isn’t as good as the market suggests.
Pittsburgh’s defense is much closer to the league average thus far in 2023. 16th in success rate, 10th in EPA per play because of turnovers and 21st in rushing EPA per play allowed. The Rams actually have a better defensive success rate than the Steelers overall. The Rams offense has a healthy Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp now and ranks sixth in yards per drive this season.
The market for this game opened Rams -3, moved to -3.5 and then came immediately back to -3 again. As long as it’s -3, I'm on it.
Pick: Rams -3
Steelers vs. Rams
Kupp has 24 touchdowns in 28 regular-season games with Matthew Stafford as his starting quarterback. In two games this season, he has one touchdown and four red-zone targets.
Since the start of the 2021 season, Kupp has had plus-money odds to score a touchdown in five of those 28 regular-season games. He scored in three of them, got hurt in one and the fifth was his first game of the season against the Eagles, which saw him have eight catches on 12 targets for 118 yards.
Kupp will be facing a Steelers team here that plays a lot of man coverage, but it doesn’t really matter. He could be playing the 49ers and I’d bet this number.
Pick: Cooper Kupp ATD (+115)
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
This looks like a high line in a division battle, but it's not high enough. The market hasn't caught up to Arizona's regression after that frisky start, nor to how well Seattle has been playing.
The Seahawks offense ranks top 10 both running and passing by many metrics and should have its way against Arizona, and now Seattle's defense is catching up too, right as the Cards' offense has gone in the tank without James Conner.
Seattle is good! The Seahawks probably should've beaten the Bengals, and they rank bottom five in red zone offense and third down defense, two metrics key to winning but typically more random over time. Seattle should look even better as those numbers even out, and it might start here against Arizona.
Seattle already has comfortable double-digit wins against the Panthers and Giants, and that's what I think this line ought to be. Instead, this line is still identical to its preseason open and hasn't adjusted enough to what we've seen from either of these teams.
This is my favorite teaser of the week too, teasing Seattle at -8.5 or below to get the Seahawks under a field goal. I'll be betting Seattle both ways.
Pick: Seahawks -7.5/Tease Seahawks -8.5 (Editor's Note: This was Seahawks -9.5 almost across the board before DK Metcalf was ruled out for Seattle. Seahawks -8.5 is now available at DraftKings and BetMGM. Looking to make your bet at BetMGM? Make sure to use our BetMGM bonus code!)
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
It looks like Arizona's rookie tight end is stepping into a bigger role. McBride out-snapped Zach Ertz for the first time last week, 44 to 35. Ertz tied his season low with two catches while McBride caught four passes for 62 yards on five targets. That was almost half his production from the first five games combined.
Seattle ranks 30th against tight ends by DVOA, so this is a good spot to target McBride. My first pick would be a receptions over but I haven't spotted a McBride line. I like the receiving yards, and I don't mind nibbling 50+ yards at +650 or Anytime TD at +850 (bet365). Ertz has hit 50 yards twice already and scored one TD, so if McBride is getting those snaps now, those numbers look too long.
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Packers vs. Broncos
Watson seems to be fully recovered from his preseason injury. He played 84% of snaps while receiving a 23.3% target share.
Broncos CB Patrick Surtain has not been the same player he was a year ago, but he's still someone to keep an eye on.
The best part about Watson receiving overs is he can legitimately cover this line with one catch.
Pick: Christian Watson Over 52.5 Rec. Yards (-115)
Chargers vs. Chiefs
Justin Herbert had one of the worst games of his professional career on Monday night against Dallas, but the Chargers made defensive improvements against Dallas that could be more important to their long-term success this season. Herbert’s offense is still top 10 in dropback success rate and top 10 in dropback EPA. I’m not concerned about Herbert just because he missed a bunch of throws he normally makes.
The run game has taken solid steps forward with increased volume and the red-zone offense has improved this season under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. The results haven’t been great because the Chargers have lost three coin-flip games to the Dolphins, Titans and Cowboys, but they haven’t lost a game by more than five yet.
Even dating back to last year, the Chargers only lost two games with a healthy Justin Herbert by six or more points.
These two teams have played four times since Brandon Staley took over as Chargers head coach. They only have one win head-to-head, but the Chargers were either leading or tied in the fourth quarter of all four meetings. None of the games were decided by more than one score.
In a league where all of the top teams keep stumbling against inferior competition — the Eagles, Bills, Cowboys and 49ers all have lost as 5+ point favorites — the Chiefs deserve credit for keeping focus and handling these inferior teams.
The Chiefs offense ranks fifth in yards per drive and sixth in points per drive. It’s not quite peak Chiefs offense yet, but the defense has shown legitimate improvement in 2023. That’s a reason they’ve covered games as favorites more — Kansas City’s defense is top 10 in yards and points per drive allowed. Even despite this improved defense, I’m backing the Chargers to keep this competitive on Sunday.
Bills vs. Patriots
Just lean into the pain, New England fans. The Patriots suck. It was always going to happen eventually, and it was a great two decades. Lean into the tank and bet on a Bills blowout.
The Bills have dominated this division rivalry in recent years. They've won four straight by at least points and have won six of seven overall, averaging 33.5 PPG in those wins. Two of those wins were by 30 and 29, and the Bills have won already this season by 28, 28 and 34 points, while the Patriots lost by 34 and 35.
If this gets ugly, it could get really ugly. The Bills have scored 35, 24, 37, 33 and 38 in their last five wins against the Patriots. Belichick hasn't had any answers for Josh Allen, and New England can't do anything on offense.
Break out the ugly blowout escalator and go for broke.
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Bills vs. Patriots
We know the Patriots are going to try to slow this pace down as much as possible and run the living hell out of the football.
Stevenson averaged 5.5 receptions per game against this Bills defense in 2022. He’s going to be a cheap source of 15+ touches with significant receiving upside.
On the conservative side of the simulations I've ran, the floor for Stevenson here is 3.26 receptions. A small edge, but worth noting.
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 2.5 Receptions (-110)
Bills vs. Patriots
With the Patriots being a 7.5-point 'dog here, there's a decent chance that they're trailing in this game, which means that Bourne should be in for a decent workload.
Bourne has been the main option in this receiving game this year and has put up solid numbers. He's sitting at 307 receiving yards through six games and has hit the over in half of his games this season, with two unders coming in 30+ point blowouts.
This is a divisional game and while I don't expect the Patriots to win it, it should be closer than most Patriots games have been this season. In one-score games this year, Bourne has yardage totals of 89, 46, 29 and 64 to go along with target totals of 11, 5, 9 and 11.
The volume should be there and I would hit the line all the way to 40.5.
Pick: Kendrick Bourne Over 37.5 Rec. Yards (-115)
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Atlanta didn’t win against the Commanders on Sunday, but the box score would suggest they absolutely should have. Atlanta had 402 total yards to 193 for Washington. The Falcons had nearly double the number of first downs and only Desmond Ridder turnovers and poor red-zone execution cost them the game.
The Commanders scored two of their three touchdowns on drives of less than 30 yards in that win. I wrote last week why I still wasn’t buying the Buccaneers despite being in a dream home spot off the bye against the Lions. The offense showed why they’re really flawed in the loss.
Tampa Bay still has more third-down regression coming, and the Bucs looked more like the unit that ranks 31st in early down success rate last week. Tampa Bay had 4.6 yards per play and 251 total yards despite playing from behind nearly the entire game. The market is still too high on the Buccaneers offense off a few unsustainably hot third-down games against middling defenses (Chicago and Minnesota).
The Falcons' pass rush win rate and pass rush grades from PFF keep trending up from the near basement early in the season to close to the league average over the last few weeks. The Falcons defense and pass rush are both showing real signs of improvement every week. Tampa Bay’s complete inability to run the ball — 30th in success rate and 31st in EPA per play — will put continued pressure on Baker Mayfield to produce under pressure.
I’ve been lower on Atlanta than most this year and even still can’t get to them being almost a three-point road dog here. I’m fine betting Atlanta +2.5 but will wait around and see if we can get a three because of the asymmetric risk. Atlanta is also an excellent teaser option.
Pick: Falcons +2.5 (+100)
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Falcons vs. Buccaneers
The numbers say this is a very bad situational spot for Atlanta. The Falcons offense ranks dead last on the road by DVOA and 29th in the first half. Atlanta ranks 27th in first down DVOA, versus No. 2 for Tampa Bay's defense. That Bucs defense is the one consistent standout unit in this game, with Tampa Bay near top 10 against both the run and the pass.
And really, this is just a bet against Desmond Ridder, who looks downright awful. Receivers were quitting on routes mid-play last week with slouched shoulders and dropped heads, like a team that has lots its belief. Ridder has been at his worst on the road and early in games. He's failed to cover every first half of his career by an average of 6.4 PPG, and it's been especially ugly as a first-half underdog. Just check out the scores of those games: 14-3, 14-3, 13-3, and 17-0. I'll let you guess which side he was for all those.
I love this spot for the Bucs, at least early. The numbers set up for a lot of 2nd-and-9s and 3rd-and-6s for Atlanta, which could put the Falcons in a hole early and keep them playing from a position of weakness.
Desmond Ridder has struggled mightily on the road and early in games. He's 1-3 ATS on the road lifetime and an unbelievable 0-10 ATS in the first half. Beyond the trends, there's another reason I want to play just the first half: Ridder has been so bad that I fear him getting benched mid-game if this goes badly again. I don't really want to bet against Taylor Heinicke here, so let's cash at halftime and get out of there.
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Raiders vs. Bears
I don't quite understand this line here, but my guess is the books just hate Bears QB Tyson Bagent. While we don't really know a ton about Bagent, my guess is that he's going to be a lateral move at worst for the receiving game. Justin Fields has been one of the worst passers in the league this season, outside of two solid games vs. the Commanders and Broncos, both of whom have awful pass defenses.
Moore is the focal point in this offense, and has had at least six targets in every game since Week 1 and has averaged eight during that span. This should be a close, competitive game, and the matchup here isn't bad for Moore against a Raiders team that has been better against the pass this season but is an above-average matchup for the pass game. M
Moore has hit the over at this number in four of the last five games, and Bagent seems to be forcing the ball to Moore just like this offense is generally run with Fields. Moore had a solid six targets for four receptions in the second half last week from the Bears' QB this week, which accounts for a 43% target share. I won't be surprised to see the volume to be similar this week.
Getting close to plus money is a solid line, and I would hit it to -120.
Pick: D.J. Moore Over 4.5 Receptions (-105)
Lions vs. Ravens
Tomorrow is Tight End Day, and Andrews faces a Lions' defense that has given up the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. On top of that, he has cleared this line his last three games. I expect that he'll keep things rolling tomorrow.
Pick: Mark Andrews Over 53.5 Rec. Yards (-105)
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Browns vs. Colts
Both defenses have the advantage here. Indianapolis isn't about to hang a huge number on this Browns defense the way it's dominating, but the Colts defense can hang too. Gus Bradley's unit has been stout, and don't let last week's 37 points allowed to the Jaguars throw you off. The defense was actually pretty good, just killed by constant Minshew turnovers.
Browns games are averaging 34.4 PPG, and that number would be lower if not for the one Cleveland over when there were two defensive TDs. Kevin Stefanski games with a total below 44 are 13-6 to the under (68%), and games featuring home underdogs have gone under 61% of the time the last two years.
This was my Hot Read, and though the line initially dipped from 42.5 to 39.5, it's rebounded back a bit and I still see value. This was an under all the way for me. Just grab the best number you can find.
Pick: Under 41
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