Raiders vs. Eagles Odds & Betting Predictions - December 14, 2025

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Bowers is clearly a generational talent at TE and could be on his way to a HOF career, but the market is well aware of that by now, so it’s not unreasonable to look to his unders when it makes sense, especially since he’s operated at such an elite usage rate at times in his young career for various reasons. I think there are a few reasons why I’m showing value on his under here. First, the Raiders are 12.5-point road dogs, so they should be in a trailing, pass-heavy script, but they’ve been trailing and playing from behind at a high rate all season. I’m projecting them to trail at around their average rate here. They may also try to be a bit more run heavy against a more run-funnel Eagles defense that will be without Jalen Carter again. Plus, the Raiders are a luck-rankings play this week, which makes me think this game ends up being closer than the market expects. Bowers could also have added target competition with rookie Jack Bech having a bigger role (as I expected last week when I was on his over 21.5). Bech tends to have a similar route tree to Bowers, which could steal a few targets going forward. Backup TE Michael Mayer is also back this week, which could eat into Bowers’ usage slightly. And with Kenny Pickett making his first start for the Raiders, it’s worth noting he tends to target outside WRs at a higher rate. We saw a bit of that last week with only 2 of his 11 attempts going to Bowers, while he targeted Bech 4 times. He might simply have more chemistry with Bech after practicing with the 2nd unit for most of the season. Since Chip Kelly was fired, Bowers has also seen his slot rate drop and his target rate take a noticeable hit. This is a brutal matchup as well. The Eagles rank 1st in DVOA against TEs, and they can use CB Quinyon Mitchell to shadow him at times, or he could face Cooper DeJean in the slot. It’s going to be a tough spot for Bowers. While he obviously has the talent to overcome it, the underlying factors are enough for me to project him closer to 48.5 with around a 59% chance to stay under 54.5.

Eagles games continue to be mostly dreadful. Philadelphia's offense is down to 27th in Success Rate on the season, and Jalen Hurts is a mess. Philadelphia's defense looks elite again, but that makes these games even worse to watch since the Eagles seem content to just defend all game and wait for Saquon Barkley or A.J. Brown to hit one of their inevitable big plays. The Raiders are pretty dreadful themselves. They're worst in the league by DVOA the last six weeks and likely now get a downgrade to Kenny Pickett at QB with Geno Smith hurt. Las Vegas ranks bottom five in Success Rate, EPA, and explosives. The Raiders are worst in the league against light boxes, which Vic Fangio's defense plays a heap of, since they can't block or run the ball, and Philly is elite against tight ends and should handle Brock Bowers. This looks cold and windy, and windy games are 61% to the under over the last five seasons. It feels like a boring 20-10 grind-it-out Eagles win to get back on track and get the job done on short rest. Since the bye week, the Eagles have scored just 16.2 PPG in five games. For reference on just how low that is, the Raiders are dead last in the NFL in PPG on the season at 15.1. Philadelphia games are at 33.4 PPG since the bye, and the Eagles are now 8-5 to the under. Pickett games also typically go under. In games with a total below 44, Pickett games are 15-7 to the under (68%), and Pickett is also 9-2 to the under (82%) on the road. Totals at 38 or below that drop by over four points are 59% to the under, assuming this gets there. The Raiders have six games already at 34 or below on the season, and frankly, they owe us some under money after last week's disastrous finish. Play the under 38.5.

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Tailing @nick_giffen

Luck Rankings and Hurts sucks vs. zone