Packers vs. Cowboys Odds & Betting Predictions - January 14, 2024

Packers at Cowboys

9:30 pm • FOX

Green Bay Packers

0-1

48 - 32

Dallas Cowboys

0-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Packers 0-1	+7	+7-104	o52-118	+287
Cowboys 0-1	u50.5	-7-118	u52-102	-360

Sunday 9:30 p.m.

January 14, 2024

AT&T StadiumArlington

DAL -140 (Live)

0.6u

D.Wicks o16.5 Longest Reception-126

0.79u

GB +7+102

1.02u

J.Love First Touchdown Scorer Yes+3400

0.12u

Nutsack play - tail this if you’re chill like that

GB +7+102

1.02u

… contrarian spread playoffs Overall: 69-47-3,59% (ROI:16%) Season:1-0-0,100% (ROI:100%)

GB +290

1.45u

… nfl playoff system contrarian vs top seeded teams Overall: 34-42-0,45% (ROI:28%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

Over 51.5-105

2.86u

C.Watson Anytime TD Scorer Yes+310

0.5u

C.Watson 2+ TDs Yes+3000

0.15u

DAL -4.5 (1H)-110

1.1u

L.Musgrave o15.5 Rec Yds-114

0.88u

J.Ferguson Anytime TD Scorer Yes+175

1.31u

69 With Dale

J.Ferguson Anytime TD Scorer Yes+165

0.83u

GB o2.5 Team Total (1Q)-155

1.13u

69 With Dale 21 Days until the NASCAR Busch Light Clash Q1 bet via DK.

R.Doubs Anytime TD Scorer Yes+310

3.1u

Over 51-110

0.91u

Tailing my friend Russell on this one

GB u21.5-120

$60.00

DAL o29.5 Team Total-115

1.74u

Best Bet - fuck Joe Barry

GB +7-105

0.95u

A.Jones o19.5 Rec Yds-110

T.Pollard o61.5 Rush Yds-110

1.1u

T.Pollard Anytime TD Scorer Yes-125

J.Ferguson Anytime TD Scorer Yes+200

@charliedisturco

B.Cooks Anytime TD Scorer Yes+230

@GDAWG5000 @nick_giffen and Brian Matthews

B.Cooks o41.5 Rec Yds-110

0.91u

@The_Oddsmaker

GB +7-105

0.95u

@SimonHunterNFL

R.Doubs u16.5 Longest Reception-110

@ChrisRaybon

B.Cooks o41.5 Rec Yds-110

GB +7-105

0.95u

Over 24.5 (1H)-120

Over 51-110

Under 51-108

GB +280

2.8u

R.Doubs u16.5 Longest Reception-110

#ConvinceMe

C.Lamb o98.5 Rec Yds-125

All official plays at Vegasinsider. Follow me on Twitter @Reno_Jonny

GB +7-102

0.98u

B.Cooks Anytime TD Scorer Yes+230

DAL -7-110

2.75u

Under 50.5-110

2.2u

GB +7.5-110

0.91u

No ones giving rookie qb’s a chance in the yoffs

DAL -7-110

J.Love o9.5 Rush Yds-115

R.Doubs u16.5 Longest Reception-120

1.2u

Under in 10/16 full games, incl 3/L4 without Watson. Whether Watson plays or not, this is a gross matchup for Doubs. Cowboys employ a man-heavy coverage scheme, and Doubs just doesn’t beat man coverage. Easily the lowest target rate drop of packers receivers against man, and sees his aDOT drop by 2 full yards (10.7). Jayden Reed has been more involved in the deep game lately, Wicks is healthy, and Bo Melton looks like he’s earned more snaps. Just a bad spot for Doubs.

Over 50.5-112

GB +7-110

0.91u

@ChrisRaybon

GB +7.5-110

Raybon 1

GB +7.5-110

Big Balls Bet of the Week

GB +7-110

0.91u

B.Cooks Anytime TD Scorer Yes+240

0.5u

B.Cooks Anytime TD Scorer Yes+240

GB +280

1.4u

GB +7.5-115

GB +7.5-110

0.91u

J.Love Anytime TD Scorer Yes+750

0.5u

GB +7.5-110

0.91u

GB +7.5-110

$100.00

GB +7.5-110

0.55u

GB +7.5-118

0.85u

This is very much a pro-Packers bet and not an anti-Cowboys one. Jordan Love finished the year averaging 0.20 Passing NEP per drop back (numberFire's EPA model where 0.07 is around league average). That's not only a top-five mark in the league, but it's not that far behind Dak Prescott. The Cowboys get a boost playing indoors against a really bad defense, but this Cowboys defense has been vulnerable at times, as well. Love has been efficient regardless of which pass-catchers have been healthy, so I agree with the model in saying they're undervalued. My model has the Cowboys favored by 5.6, meaning the 7.5 is enough for me to pull the trigger.

GB +7.5-117

Featured Insight
The Packers rushed for 528 yards in the last 4 weeks of the regular season -- 10th-most in NFL; the Cowboys allowed 538 yards rushing in the last 4 weeks of the regular season -- T-6th-most in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Cowboys have intercepted 17 passes this season -- T-8th-most in NFL; the Packers are 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception this season -- T-4th-worst in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Cowboys are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Cowboys are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Cowboys are 4-4 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Cowboys' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 6 of Cowboys' 9 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cowboys	7-10	3-6	4-4	1-2	6-8
Packers	0-1	5-4	0-1	6-6	0-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Cowboys	11-6	6-3	5-3	2-1	9-5
Packers	0-1	3-5-1	0-1	5-6-1	0-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cowboys	7-10	N/A	N/A	2-1	5-9
Packers	0-1	6-3	N/A	9-3	0-1

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jan 7th	@WAS	W 38-10	-13 W	O 47.5	DAL -924
Dec 31st	DET	W 20-19	-4.5 L	U 53.5	DAL -225
Dec 24th	@MIA	L 20-22	+1.5 L	U 48.5	MIA +103
Dec 17th	@BUF	L 10-31	+2.5 L	U 49.5	BUF +119
Dec 11th	PHI	W 33-13	-3.5 W	U 52.5	DAL -184

Packers

Total

Cowboys

415

Total Yards

510

Total Plays

7.7

Yards Per Play

5.7

Packers

Passing

Cowboys

272

YDS

403

16/21

Comps/Atts

41/60

12.952

YPA

6.047

3/0

TDs/INTs

3/2

0/0

Sacks/Yards

4/16

Packers

Rushing

Cowboys

143

Rush Yards

123

Attempts

4.333

YPC

4.92

TDs

Packers

Turnovers

Cowboys

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Packers

Efficiency

Cowboys

4/4 100%

Redzone

4/5 80%

6/10 0%

3rd Down

10/16 0%

1/1 0%

4th Down

0/2 0%

Packers

First Downs

Cowboys

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Packers

Misc

Cowboys

7/66

Penalties/Yards

6/48

28:55

Possession

31:05

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See more NFL Odds

MatchupOverUnder
Packers 0-1	o21.5-112	u21.5-110
Cowboys 0-1	o30.5-110	u30.5-104

Packers vs. Cowboys Odds & Betting Predictions - January 14, 2024

Packers at Cowboys

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Packers

Public

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