Commanders vs. Dolphins Odds & Betting Predictions - November 16, 2025

Little morning sprinkle

Link in Bio for early access

5.72% ev play to -118

Action PRO backing this side of the game. Sharp money also slightly backing Miami to cover in Madrid.

Would prefer 12+ and 14+. 16+ is the highest I would go.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Proj closer to 5.0 with around a 61% chance to stay under 5.5

It's our last international game of the year and our first ever in Madrid! It looks like a bit of a stinker with Jayden Daniels out and both teams disappointing, but that doesn't mean we can't find an angle! Season-long metrics say these teams are mostly even. Just look at the DVOA. Washington's offense is slightly ahead, 19th to 25th, though obviously those numbers include all the Daniels games. The teams are 23rd and 24th on defense, 3rd and 4th on special teams. It looks like a dead heat. Dig a little deeper, though, and you find a very different story. We've had 10 weeks of NFL. Over the first half of them, Washington ranked 8th on offense and 13th on defense by DVOA, a clear playoff-caliber fringe-top-10 team. Since Week 6, the Commanders have plummeted to 26th and 31th, (dis)respectively — about as bad as any team in the league, especially on defense. Over the same time from, the Dolphins rose from dead last in Defensive DVOA the first five weeks to 7th since. Miami has been helped by some opponent injuries and off games, but the trend is clear. Miami's defense has improved from awful to at least average at the exact same time as Washington's plummeted from average to awful. The Commanders just don't have much defensive talent, and what little they had has taken a ton of injuries, with DT DaRon Payne suspended this week on top of everything. Dan Quinn has taken over play calling on defense, but coaches can't make magic out of nothing. This is just a bad defense, and its one real strength is at linebacker with veterans Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu, but Miami attacks horizontally and outside, stretching the field, and those two will likely be too slow to keep up with De'Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, and all that Dolphins speed. Teams that allow over 24 points in at least five straight games are just 37% ATS since 2018. Once we learn a defense is that bad, it's often profitable to just keep betting against them. As for Washington's offense, the passing game is in tatters right now without Daniels and Terry McLaurin, unable to attack this beatable Miami secondary, and a once potent rushing attack has cratered. Ever heard of the Kliff cliff? Year after year, Kliff Kingsbury's teams tend to have some answers early in the season but get found out later in the year. Kingsbury's rushing attack looked good early despite a lack of talent, but it's disappeared entirely of late. Neither of these teams is enjoying its season, but they're still headed in opposite directions. Sunday made that clear, and the line adjusted accordingly from Washington being a slight favorite to Miami near a field goal. It's almost always a good idea to back favorites in international games — makes sense, right? Just take the better team on a neutral field. Excluding Jaguars games (because they play overseas so often), favorites in international games are 28-13 ATS, covering 68% of the time. Miami doesn't have to be good — it just has to be better than whatever's left of Washington. Grab the Dolphins at -2.5 while it's available below the key number.

@The_Oddsmaker https://myaction.app/IlEcwUOFiYb

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/K2Wr1J4liYb

@KendraMiddleton_ https://myaction.app/6S8Oz4TJgYb

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/x6YDsFhwfYb

@ChrisRaybon 2 https://myaction.app/WNap0ETvfYb

#SundaySixPack