Chargers vs. Jaguars Odds & Betting Predictions - January 15, 2023

When I’m NYC with @The_Oddsmaker, you must ride

Dk: small, fun bet here but these odds are too good to pass up. Chargers love using his 6’8” 237 lbs frame in the red zone. Jags rank 32nd in DVOA vs TEs. Projecting his fair price closer to 30/1 here, but love him in this spot

#69WithDale

#seankoerner @The_Oddsmaker

No Williams now means more methodical drives and expect good game plan to confuse Lawrence

FanDuel. aDOT w Parham (3.6 vs 11.3). W/o Parham it’s 7.8. Under in 5/6 w Parham.

Circa: I have this projected as a pick’em. The loss of WR Mike Williams is massive for the Chargers. For more, check out BettingPros.

DK: Full write up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/chargers-vs-jaguars-player-props-justin-herbert-pass-attempts-nfl-wild-card

Rivers

Will be discussing in convince me with @ChrisRaybon. FD quickslip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.357797782&selectionId[0]=7017917&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

SuperBook

Pederson home unders 34-14 (71%) in reg sn, Lawrence home unders 13-4 (76%), incl 6-2 this year. Outdoor Wild Card games ft non-division matchups total 41+ 28-8 to the under (78%) last decade. Two debut playoff QBs could struggle to find a rhythm.

Inspired by Brian vs the Books

No Mike Williams. Without him he’s averaging 5.6 receptions and 8.4 targets for 63 yards vs 2.8 receptions and 4.1 targets for 29 yards with Williams in the lineup.

Simon Says

Luke Swain/VegasRefund + Brandon Anderson Best Bet

#stuckey @Stuckey2

Bet at BetMGM. Mike Williams just got ruled out. Down to +200 at Bet365 and +165 at FD.

FD quickslip: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.358080225&selectionId[0]=16087616&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

My favorite side of Wild Card Round. Full case coming Friday in picks article and on TAN pod. Adding a unit while I see a -1.5 at Caesar's, 2.5 everywhere else.

FanDuel 1:00 pm EST Thursday.

Bet at Caesars. At +380 at FanDuel.

Hit this at 1.5, hitting again at 2.5.

DraftKings. Hit this in 4/L5, with double digit targets in 4/L6. Running 60% of his routes from the slot, he’s likely to avoid JAX’s best CB (Tyson Campbell doesn’t travel to the slot). Mike Williams status is unclear as is, and JAX’ rush defense is a strength (11th in DVOA). 28% target share over L6 games. Herbert implied at 38 attempts - Allen should see 11+ targets.

FD: see my prop guide for full analysis Quickslip link: https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.358080225&selectionId[0]=16087616&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

@SimonHunterNFL #SimonHunter

@nick_giffen

Available at FanDuel. This is the 11th time my model has shown value in the Jags' moneyline this year. They're 9-1 in the other instances, including six of the wins being at plus money. I'd have the Jags favored even if we assumed Mike Williams and Joey Bosa were to play. With both banged up, there's a shot this thing skews even more heavily toward Jacksonville. They should be able to move the ball on this defense, and the Chargers' offense perpetually frustrates despite its freakazoid quarterback. I'd love to sit it out and get to just enjoy what should be a delightful game, but this value is too good to pass up.

At Caesars. 3rd order pythag has LAC around -4.5 at neutral, so about -2.5 or -3 at JAX

staley week 18 shenanigans aside, this 5 seed was the best wildcard spot in the bracket and why i talked about liking chargers afc odds on pod cuz you get the far better matchup here and then KC who they've gone wire to wire 2x with great matchup for LAC: jax one real strength is their pass game, but chargers D is #2 pass DVOA D since bye week... jags bottom 5 pass D, and chargers are super pass heavy and finally healthy so herbert/allen/mwill/ekeler should pass all over them LAC better in all three phases, better qb, D playing great, finally the team they were supposed to be coming into the year. grab before -3, PB here https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-wild-card-picks-bets-on-spreads-totals-player-props-for-all-6-games?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=brandonanderson