Browns vs. Raiders Odds & Betting Predictions - November 23, 2025

1.55% ev

As given on Action Playbook LIVE. Half unit due to Shedeur uncertainty, and Geno could always throw a pick 6 to kill this

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Make sure to bet this at DraftKings to include Special Teams. If you only want to bet Defense, it’s +850 at FanDuel.

Do your thing Shedeur.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

He’s had a solid rookie season but 9.5 is way too high for this matchup. Carson has only cleared 10+ tackles twice this year and this is a tougher matchup for LBs as the Raiders have provided the 3rd fewest tackle opps for LBs (a theme for Geno Smith led offenses) and I’m projecting them to face ~4 fewer rush attempts. He may mix in on the occasional Bowers target but most teams stick their top CB(s) on him since he is the clear #1 target. Projecting this closer to 8.4 with around a 65% chance he stays under 9.5

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

I was a little surprised to see Sanders’ rush prop this high for his first start. It is a tricky projection because we are still trying to figure out what his scramble rate will look like in the NFL. He scrambled at a 7% rate at Colorado last year, a 5.1% rate in preseason on 39 dropbacks, and a 14% rate last week when he scrambled 3 times on 21 dropbacks for 16 yards. If he settles in as a 10%+ scramble rate QB, he will blow past this number. I still think he ends up more in the 5-7% range as he is more of a pocket passer and usually looks to throw rather than pull it down. Last week he was thrown into the fire and was under pressure on a ridiculous 52.4% of his dropbacks, so it is not shocking that he scrambled more. Now he has a full week to prepare, and this is a game where the Browns should be able to lean heavily on the run. That should naturally lower his dropback volume. He also faces a Raiders defense with the 2nd lowest pressure rate in the league, which should give him a cleaner pocket and fewer forced scrambles. I still think we see 2-3 scrambles, but I am not expecting many designed runs for him (if any). It is a very wide range of outcomes and not a spot you feel overly confident projecting one way or the other. But I regretted not taking Tyler Shough under 19.5 a couple of weeks ago (he is now in the 8.5 range) because he never profiled as a QB who would use his legs enough to warrant a prop in this range. Sanders looks similar in that sense. If Sanders clears this easily and shows he is actually going to be a 10%+ scramble rate QB, I will adjust my expected scramble rate and his rushing projections going forward. For now, this is a spot I want to attack early. I have his median closer to 15.5 and around a 60% chance he stays under 19.5.

We may not get too many chances to fade Shedeur Sanders if he's as bad as everyone fears, so let's talk about the right way to do it. I already took under 37.5 on Hot Read with both defenses clearly at advantage here. The Raiders rank 10th in Defensive DVOA over the last six weeks, even after the ugly showing against the Cowboys. Even so, Raiders -4 is a hilarious line against any team, let alone a Browns defense this good. So is Shedeur Sanders really as bad as everyone fears? He might be. Sanders will be the 18th Browns QB to make his first career start since the Browns franchise in 1999; the first 17 are winless, 0–17. He's the 42nd Browns starting QB in that stretch. Including preseason action, Sanders now has 59 dropbacks on 20 drives - already yikes - with an awful 31 pressures and nine sacks. That's left a 53% pressure rate, a 29% sack-to-pressure ratio, and a 15% sack rate, all unimaginably horrendous numbers. Sanders holds the ball far too long. He averaged almost four seconds to throw in the preseason and was at 3.2 seconds on Sunday in limited time. That's just not going to work in the NFL. With a line set at 28.5 attempts, that would imply at least five sacks for Sanders over a full game, and that honestly feels low. Could we see an NFL sack record in this game? The record is 18 back in 1978 by the Packers and Chargers. Geno Smith has been sacked 4+ times in half his games too, and Myles Garrett has four- and five-sack games in the last month. Most defensive props don't post until near kickoff, but some books like DraftKings post team sack totals like over 2.5 or 3.5. I'd love to bet a Raiders defensive sack total over 3.5 and take the escalator up from there. Books also typically post individual sack lines. Maxx Crosby is the one reliable Raiders pass rusher, with at least one full sack in half his games this season, so I'd love to bet Crosby over 0.5 sacks. If you want to fade Shedeur Sanders because you think he's terrible, you've got to be more aggressive than just a Raiders side or something like Browns 0-to-10 points at +210. I'll sprinkle a few options. Browns under 7.5 points at +440 (DraftKings) looks better than no touchdowns at +400 since that would probably take three field goals. Zero Browns points sits at +2800 too (bet365). And how about a goofy scrambling-around-backwards-oh-no-no-no Browns safety? You can bet that at +1700 (DraftKings). You just know everyone will be talking about Shedeur Sanders all weekend, so we may as well have some fun with a few long shot Haterade props.

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