Broncos vs. Raiders Odds & Betting Predictions - December 7, 2025

Tailing @nick_giffen

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Luck Rankings A Grade

Bech has had a very disappointing rookie season, but it’s usually not smart to completely write off a 2nd round WR 12 games into their career. I wasn’t expecting Bech to do much up to this point anyway. But with Thornton and Mayer ruled out for this game I’m expecting him to see a massive increase in usage here. Projecting him closer to 25.5 with around a 58% chance to clear 21.5

Tailing @nick_giffen

Ashton Jeanty under 4.5 receptions (-110 at BetMGM, Bet365) Jeanty has stark receiving splits when it comes to man vs. zone coverage and single vs. two-high safety coverage. His targets per route run (TPRR) drop in half when going from zone to man, and drop by 35% when going from two-high to single high looks. Unfortunately for him, in weeks when Pat Surtain has been fully healthy, the Broncos play the third-most man and ninth-most single high safety in the league. Denver also, despite being 10-2 meaning scripts where the opposition would be pass heavy, allow the second fewest targets to RBs. That's in large part because they allow the lowest share of targets to RBs of any NFL team; they are great at man marking RBs out of the passing game. Jeanty's line is likely inflated by a recent spurt of four out of five games clearing this line, including three straight with 6-plus receptions. The one game he didn't clear this line was against Denver, where he had three receptions on five targets despite the Broncos playing more zone with Surtain out. But since Surtain is back and fully healthy, expect closer to the 40% man coverage the Broncos play with Surtain than the 23% they played against Las Vegas in the first meeting. This is good to -150.

You watched this meeting a month ago on Thursday night, though you're forgiven if you forgot an awful 10-7 comeback Denver win. The Broncos have actually trailed in every game this season. No other team in NFL history to have that stat through 12 games has been better than 7-5; the Broncos are 10-2 somehow, with eight of those wins by one score. That includes just 4-2 on the road with all four wins by four points or less. At some books, you can bet Denver to win from behind — not a bad idea at this point! The Broncos continue to struggle early, bottom five in Offensive DVOA in the first quarter, and the Raiders are top five defensively there. The rankings flip after that, but that shows why Denver is digging a hole early. This division rivalry has seen five straight sweeps, so whoever proves itself better in the first meeting is winning again. The Broncos are the better team, maybe by a lot. The Raiders are dead last in DVOA over the last six weeks, and would you believe the Broncos are top five? Everyone knows the defense has been great, but the offense has been top 10 too. The Raiders are terrible pressuring the quarterback and rarely blitz, so that's a good setup for Bo Nix, even against zone coverage. And on the other side of the ball, this Raiders offense should have no shot with its horrendous offensive line and dead last in EPA per play under pressure up against Nic Bonitto and all that Denver pass rush, especially once the broncos get ahead. Las Vegas has a heavy short-pass attack, where Denver is elite, and the Raiders rank bottom five in Success Rate and explosiveness while Denver tops the league in both metrics. I'll place part of this bet on a Raiders alternate team total under 10.5 points at +300 (bet365), something Las Vegas has done already five times this season — including against the Broncos. If you're a live bettor, it may be wise to wait out that early Denver start and jump in later. We'll just go with Broncos second half -3.5. The Raiders are 3-9 ATS in the second half, while the Broncos are 8-4 there, including 8-2 ATS in their wins. Denver actually needs this win since it's in the division and, more importantly, it clinches any head-to-head tiebreaker against the Patriots, since New England lost to the Raiders somehow way back in the opener. This looks like a great teaser week with a number of favorites around a touchdown. I'll add a Bucs (-2.5) and Broncos (-1.5) six-point teaser, pushing both lines past all those key numbers, against two opponents who really just need to get a loss and a better draft pick.

#Tailing No.1 Tre Tucker Fan, @nick_giffen

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H/T to @nick_giffen A grade on the Luck Rankings. Broncos clearly not a trustworthy favorite despite their 10-2 record. Bottom 3 cover rate as a favorite. Yet, here they are catching 80% of the tickets. Reminder: this team scored just 10 points at home the last time they played LV.

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