Seminoles vs. Cavaliers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 26, 2025

FSU hasn’t played a real opponent in a month, Friday nights on the road in CFB are weird, only 1 way to look here.

@_Collin1 https://myaction.app/AoQQIE3ZYWb

This Virginia team is for real, especially on offense. I loved the Chandler Morris transfer the moment it happened, and it’s proving to be a perfect fit for the Cavaliers. Morris is a fearless gunslinger who can make every throw. He finished last season 10th in the nation with 3,774 passing yards. Now, he’s surrounded by even more talent, and the results speak for themselves. Virginia ranks 5th nationally in total yards and is averaging 45.5 points per game. Head coach Tony Elliott finally has the pieces to win. Tonight’s matchup will certainly be their toughest test of the season, but I think the Noles are on upset watch. Florida State’s defense is vulnerable, ranking just 103rd in pass rush and 87th in coverage. This is exactly the type of weaknesses UVA’s aerial attack can exploit. On the other side, FSU’s offense has been very productive, but it’s almost entirely ground based. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos is still run first and hasn’t thrown for more than 240 yards in any game this season. Virginia’s staff knows him well from his Boston College days. Last year, they beat him 24-14 while forcing two interceptions and a fumble. Despite Florida State being the #8 team in the country, their passing offense sits only 36th. If this turns into a shootout, Virginia holds the edge. PFF grades Virginia as the 12th best overall team in the nation, well ahead of Florida State at 22nd. Those grades go beyond box scores and capture play by play quality. Virginia took a major leap over the offseason. Their 8th ranked transfer portal class has paid immediate dividends. Their lone loss came to NC State in a game they outgained the Wolfpack but fell victim to late breaks. Meanwhile, Florida State’s hype feels a little inflated. This team wasn’t projected to be this good. This is also a classic look ahead spot with #2 Miami (rival) looming next week. They could be overlooking this very underrated Virginia team much like Alabama did with them. Our model makes the fair spread 5.65, about 1.5 points lower than the market. If Virginia’s defense can hold its own, an outright win wouldn’t be shocking, but I’m grabbing the points.

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NC State ran and passed for over 200 on the Wahoos. Tommy C is going to torch this UVA defense.

Should be -120. Will fix after game