Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Odds & Betting Predictions - May 29, 2024
Timberwolves at Mavericks
12:30 am • TNTTimberwolves at Mavericks Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Timberwolves 1-4 | +2 | +1.5-110 | o211.5-110 | +100 |
Mavericks 4-1 | u210.5 | -1.5-110 | u211.5-110 | -120 |
Wednesday 12:30 a.m.
May 29, 2024American Airlines CenterDallas
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Expert Picks
Prop Hunter
167d ago
Last 30d: 27-52-0 (-18.2u)
D.Gafford o11.5 Rebs+700
0.25u
K.Irving o23.5 Pts-115
1.15u
D.Gafford o7.5 Rebs+104
1.04u
D.Gafford o9.5 Rebs+250
0.25u
💰🦡 Jake
167d ago
Last 30d: 109-97-5 (+6.5u)
N.Reid o16.5 Pts+Rebs-115
2.3u
Matt Moore
167d ago
Last 30d: 83-109-1 (-4.0u)
DAL +110 (Live)
1.1u
Shady Biev
167d ago
Last 30d: 191-219-3 (-26.5u)
MIN -120 (Live)
4u
Prop Bet Guy
168d ago
Last 30d: 81-69-0 (+2.5u)
N.Reid o12.5 Pts+100
1u
Over in 3/3 this series so far, and there are so many angles for him to get minutes tonight.
- He’s been much better than KAT
- Gets minutes with KAT or Gobert foul trouble (a very real possibility with the Luka/Kyrie PnR)
- Might get more minutes if the Wolves are down and need points
One of the above has happened in each game this series. Plus, no Lively, which eliminates the Mavs best interior defender.
I see Naz getting 24+ minutes again - and he’s hit this mark in all 5 playoff games where he’s played 23+ mins.
Mike Randle
168d ago
Last 30d: 22-11-0 (+8.4u)
MIN +1.5-110
0.91u
Prop Bomb 🏝
168d ago
Last 30d: 13-12-0 (+0.2u)
A.Edwards u2.5 3pt M-128
1u
Ant must be super aggressive if MIN wants to avoid elimination and think this is still factoring in the L10 average 3PA with Game 1’s spike in 12 attempts inflating the line. If we remember, Edwards was gassed by the end of the 3rd quarter guarding Kyrie all game, and adjustments being off-ball is bringing him energy to create downhill. Since then, it’s noticeably gone down each game from 7 3PA to last game’s 2 3PA.
As mentioned previously, guarding low usage players has allowed Ant to be a lot more aggressive and decisive in driving, getting to the line and because of that he’s seeing his average drives go from 15.5 the first 2 games to :rocket:28.0 in the most recent one. And with Dereck Lively out of the game, it’s a no-brainer to take a chance and switch on Gafford in PnR coverages.
Mavs defenders are quick to contest at the perimeter and Ant gets his 3’s from transition or from pull-up (67% of attempts) - where the Mavs are the 2nd best overall playoff for this playtype + allow the 2nd fewest 3PT Pull-Up volume (Remember we faded Harden’s 3PA vs. them). For tonight, I’m projected at 3-7 3PA from Ant Man. He has a 72.7% hit rate in games playing 35+ MIN w/ the starters when seeing this volume: 16/22 hit rate. Ant’s prediction for KAT was that “he wants to make 8 3PM” so volume can come there. #PlayerProps
YBK Picks.com
168d ago
Last 30d: 48-51-1 (-7.8u)
MIN +1.5-105
2.86u
Over 211.5-105
2u
Joe Nelson
168d ago
Last 30d: 4-4-0 (-0.1u)
MIN +1.5-110
0.23u
Markus Markets
168d ago
Last 30d: 72-77-1 (+16.1u)
A.Edwards o6.5 Rebs+106
1.06u
Gilles Gallant
168d ago
Last 30d: 48-100-1 (-1.8u)
A.Edwards o6.5 Rebs+106
0.53u
#Tailing @PropBomb
Prop Bomb 🏝
168d ago
Last 30d: 13-12-0 (+0.2u)
A.Edwards o6.5 Rebs+106
1.06u
9 rebound on team-high 17 rebound chances last game. New defensive assignment changing from primary point of attack to helper as a low man in PnR coverages. He essentially went from “I want Kyrie” to now guarding Derrick Jones Jr. for 64% of the time in Game 3. And now because DJJ is a low-usage player, this has helped him conserve energy on offense, where he’ll need to play 40+ minutes in an elimination game.
Over the L30 games, DAL averages 6th most REB vs. SG as compared to the 2nd fewest REB vs. C. Copy + paste from the last series, we saw the same strategy with SGA manning the DJJ assignment and he averages 8.0 RPG because of it. And like Chet, Gobert will have trouble converting on his rebound chance if he’s involved in Luka’s PnR or boxing out Gafford down low to contest looks. In the end, Ant should benefit. #PlayerProps
The Degenerates
168d ago
Last 30d: 58-61-1 (-7.7u)
N.Reid o12.5 Pts-115
1.15u
Matt Moore
168d ago
Last 30d: 83-109-1 (-4.0u)
Over 211-111
1.1u
DAL -1.5-110
1.1u
Green Dot Daily
168d ago
Last 30d: 44-62-0 (-11.9u)
L.Doncic o8.5 Rebs-105
0.95u
@JoeDellera
MIN o104.5 Team Total-110
0.91u
@ChicagoFlow
A.Edwards o33.5 Pts+Rebs-151
0.66u
@JoeDellera
Charlie DiSturco
168d ago
Last 30d: 52-69-2 (+0.3u)
A.Edwards o26.5 Pts-125
0.4u
Going down with the ship, square edition. Elimination game Ant w/ more open paint now that Lively is hurt
VegasIsMyBitch
168d ago
Last 30d: 24-24-0 (+0.3u)
MIN +105
3.15u
Gilles Gallant
168d ago
Last 30d: 48-100-1 (-1.8u)
K.Anderson o7.5 Pts+Ast-125
0.63u
#Tailing @TheBMatt
Markus Markets
168d ago
Last 30d: 72-77-1 (+16.1u)
K.Anderson o7.5 Pts+Ast-130
1u
Bruce Marshall
168d ago
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
MIN +2-110
0.91u
Under 211.5-115
0.87u
Brian Matthews
168d ago
Last 30d: 10-19-0 (+9.9u)
K.Anderson o7.5 Pts+Ast-125
1.25u
Anderson has hit this line in his last 8 games against the Mavericks, racking up 17, 8, 11, 8, 8, 13, 12, 12 P+A in those games.
Joe Dellera
168d ago
Last 30d: 58-78-2 (-8.9u)
A.Edwards o33.5 Pts+Rebs+100
1u
Charlie DiSturco
168d ago
Last 30d: 52-69-2 (+0.3u)
A.Edwards o12.5 Rebs+Ast-124
0.4u
12 or more in all 3 games this series (18, 12, 19) and now that Lively is out, Edwards should see an uptick in rebound chances. All attention on Ant, which means he’ll still have to distribute given his oft-double teamed nature from DAL
Scott Pritchard
168d ago
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
MIN +1.5-110
0.91u
Kyle Murray
168d ago
Last 30d: 99-111-0 (-15.1u)
D.Gafford Double-Double Yes+340
1u
D.Gafford o10.5 Pts-115
1u
K.Towns o27.5 Pts+Rebs-115
1u
R.Gobert o10.5 Rebs-140
1.35u
A.Edwards o33.5 Pts+Ast-108
0.93u
Scott Rickenbach
168d ago
Last 30d: 74-60-2 (+2.3u)
Under 211-110
0.91u
Sandy Plashkes
168d ago
Last 30d: 117-118-0 (+3.0u)
MIN +106
$53.00
Charlie DiSturco
168d ago
Last 30d: 52-69-2 (+0.3u)
MIN +110
0.55u
K.Towns o18.5 Pts-125
0.4u
A good friend once told me the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Well my friends, here we are.
Joe Dellera
168d ago
Last 30d: 58-78-2 (-8.9u)
MIN +110
1.1u
My Game Guide: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/minnesota-timberwolves-vs-dallas-mavericks-game-4-prediction-nba-expert-pick-odds-tuesday-may-28
L.Doncic o8.5 Rebs-125
0.8u
Luka has been tremendous during this series and now will have to pick up even more slack with the injury to Dereck Lively (neck).
Without Lively, we should see more minutes where Luka is looked at as the best Mavericks’ rebounder if Gafford is not on the floor.
Without Lively but with Gafford, Luka has averaged 10.4 rebounds per game with 9+ in 7/8 games. This is likely because we see more minutes where Dallas either goes small or gets some minutes from Dwight Powell or Maxi Kleber (Questionable - Shoulder), neither of whom are great rebounders.
While Luka has only averaged 7.7 rebounds on 11.7 chances this series, the absence of Lively is a significant intervening factor. Couple the history with the fact that he has played 40+ minutes in all three games this series, and there is room for Luka to grab 9+ rebounds.
L.Doncic o9.5 Rebs+120
0.12u
Brian Bitler
169d ago
Last 30d: 50-46-4 (+6.5u)
MIN +120
3.6u
Gilles Gallant
169d ago
Last 30d: 48-100-1 (-1.8u)
J.McDaniels o10.5 Pts-105
0.53u
#Tailing @TheBMatt
Brian Matthews
169d ago
Last 30d: 10-19-0 (+9.9u)
J.McDaniels o10.5 Pts-105
1.05u
PRO Insights
Timberwolves
MIN Insights
- Featured InsightThe Timberwolves have averaged 36.2 defensive rebounds/game this season -- 7th-best in the NBA; the Mavericks have averaged 15.4 offensive rebounds/game this season -- 9th-worst in the NBA.
TRY FOR FREE
Mavericks
DAL Insights
- Featured InsightThe Mavericks have shot 38% from three (144/377) in close and late situations this season -- 3rd-best in the NBA; the Timberwolves have allowed opponents to shoot 38% from three in close and late situations this season -- 4th-worst in the NBA.
TRY FOR FREE
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Previews & Analysis
Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Mavericks are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Mavericks are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Mavericks are 27-14 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mavericks' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 16 of Mavericks' 41 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mavericks | 48-34 | 21-20 | 27-14 | 32-18 | 15-16 |
Timberwolves | 40-40-2 | 18-22-1 | 22-18-1 | 29-31-2 | 11-9 |
Over/Under History
overall | home o/u | away o/u | favorite o/u | underdog o/u | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mavericks | 36-45-1 | 16-25 | 20-20-1 | 22-28 | 13-17-1 |
Timberwolves | 41-40-1 | 18-22-1 | 23-18 | 29-32-1 | 12-8 |
Straight-Up (ML) History
overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mavericks | 13-9 | N/A | N/A | 37-13 | 12-19 |
Timberwolves | 9-7 | N/A | N/A | 47-15 | 9-11 |
Last 5 Matchups
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Injury Updates
Mavericks Injuries
- Dante ExumPG
Exum is out with wrist
Out
Timberwolves Injuries
Player Stats
- scoringLuka Doncic28ppg
- reboundingLuka Doncic15rpg
- assistsLuka Doncic10apg
- shootingDaniel Gafford100fg%
Team Stats
39-74 (53%)
Field Goals
34-81 (42%)
16-25 (64%)
Free Throws
18-21 (86%)
11-24 (46%)
3P
14-41 (34%)
40
Rebounds
38
23
Assists
23
Turnovers
9
Steals
6
4
Blocks
4
23
Fouls
22
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Odds Comparison
Could not load odds
Timberwolves at Mavericks Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Timberwolves 1-4 | o105.5-106 | u105.5-114 |
Mavericks 4-1 | o106.5-104 | u106.5-118 |