One half of the NBA Finals is set as the Celtics finished their sweep of the Pacers last night. They may find out their opponent tonight if the Mavericks finish a sweep of their own.
Two players that have been central to this series are Kyrie Irving and Anthony Edwards. I expect that to remain the case tonight.
Let's dive into NBA player props tonight.
Kyrie Irving Over 23.5 Points (-112)
Wolves vs. Mavs | 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Last night, I backed Jayson Tatum in part because of his success in closeout games. While he improved to 8-1 in those situations over the last three years, he was hooked on his PR line as the Pacers didn't foul on the final possession.
Tatum has an excellent record in those situations, but he still pales in comparison to his former teammate. Kyrie Irving is 14-0 in games when his team has a chance to close out a series, the best record among players to play at least 10 closeout games, per Statmuse.
In those 14 games, he's averaging 23.1 points per game and he's hit this line in nine of those games, including eight of the last 11 games.
Backing Irving's points has been a rollercoaster at times this postseason, particularly when he hasn't been aggressive in the first half.
However, Irving has come alive against the Timberwolves.
In the Western Conference Finals, Irving is averaging 27.7 points per game and is shooting 52.5% from the field and 43.8% from 3. He's hit this line in two of the first games, with 30 and 33 points in Games 1 and 3.
Irving has been able to get his spots in this matchup, and he's attempting about 20 field goals per game.
On that volume, Irving should crack 24 points tonight, and he's also +310 for 30 points on FanDuel.
Pick: Kyrie Irving Over 23.5 Points (-112)
Anthony Edwards Over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-112)
Wolves vs. Mavs | 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Anthony Edwards may have provided a bit of motivation for Irving when he called out that he would be guarding him in this series.
Edwards tried to match him in Game 3, and he certainly went down swinging as he took 24 shots. However, with no 3s and just two free throws, he was hooked on his points line (26.5) with 26.
Edwards did hit his PRA line, though, as he also had nine rebounds and nine assists.
He's averaging 8.3 rebounds and eight assists per game in this series.
The Timberwolves have built a team around Edwards and their three big men, but Karl Anthony-Towns and Naz Reid both have a negative plus/minus, while Rudy Gobert is only +3 in the series.
If head coach Chris Finch opts to downsize tonight, Edwards will be in position for even more rebound chances. He already had 15 rebound chances in Game 1 and 17 in Game 3.
Additionally, Edwards is averaging 15 potential assists in this series. While Edwards' assists have gone up, point guard Mike Conley's assists have gone down. Conley is averaging four assists per game in the series and his assists line (5.5 tonight) has gone under in all three games.
If you prefer to take the points off this combo, Edwards rebounds + assists line is 12.5 tonight. However, given his demeanor, I expect that Edwards won't let his team go out without a fight.
I expect him to take at least 20 shots, which should lead to 25 points or more.
If he maintains his rebounds and assists pace, he should crack 40 points, rebounds and assists tonight after having 44 on Sunday.
