Cubs vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - April 30, 2024

Cubs at Mets

11:10 pm • MLB Network

Chicago Cubs

0-0

2 - 4

New York Mets

7-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Manaea			3.47	12-6
J.Assad			3.74	7-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Cubs 0-0	+1.5-210	o7-122	+103
Mets 7-6	-1.5+173	u7-101	-122

Tuesday 11:10 p.m.

April 30, 2024

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

Over 3.5 (F5)-140

0.5u

Bet365 6:55.

P.Alonso o0.5 HR+450

0.2u

P.Alonso o1.5 Total Bases+180

0.25u

Going to game so riding Alonso

CHC +106

S.Manaea u16.5 Outs-127

Under in 4/5 starts, and is at a whopping 4.27 pitches per PA. The Cubs haven’t faced many lefties this season, but 4/5 were under this line. And overall, they are 8th in pitches per PA this season, and 10th in walk rate overall.

P.Alonso o0.5 Total Bases-140

0.7u

P.Alonso o0.5 HR+450

F.Lindor o1.5 Total Bases+140

Ballpark pal gives a extreme advantage for Lindor in this matchup and +ev bet with devig odds of +116 giving value to this number

Over 7-115

1.15u

Over 7-115

0.58u

Bet to 7.5 (-101

CHC +110 (F5)

0.5u

S.Manaea u5.5 Ks-140

J.Assad o15.5 Outs-115

1.15u

Featured Insight
The Cubs have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season -- fifth lowest in MLB. The Mets have scored first in just 30% of their games this season -- second lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Mets have allowed a run just 28% of the time after an opposing score since the 2022 season -- tied for second lowest in MLB. The Cubs have answered-back in just 27% of innings after an opponent scores since the 2022 season -- third lowest in MLB.

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The Cubs are 38-20 (.655) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .576.

The Mets are just 8-43 (.157) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

The Mets are just 3-82 (.035) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.

The Cubs are 23-19 (.548) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .424.

30% of Brandon Nimmo strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- tied for 14th highest in MLB-- 88th Percentile. 35% of Javier Assad strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- eighth highest among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP-- 96th Percentile.

Sean Manaea has walked 10 of 45 batters (22%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 8% -- 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (18/64) against Sean Manaea this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 43% -- first Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30
Cubs	79-83	36-45	43-38	33-50	45-32

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29
Cubs	75-81-6	34-46-1	41-35-5	40-39-4	34-41-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35
Cubs	83-79	44-37	39-42	45-38	37-40

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 29th	CHC	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 7	CHC -146
Apr 28th	STL	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 8	NYM -140
Apr 27th	STL	L 4-7	+1.5 L	O 7.5	STL +115
Apr 26th	STL	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 7.5	STL -125
Apr 24th	@SF	W 8-2	-1.5 W	O 7.5	NYM -112

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

Ben Brown
P
Brown is out with neck
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Assad, P	78	5	1	1
RA.Alzolay, P	22	1	0	0
RC.Brewer, P	38	2	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1N.Hoerner, 2B	0-4	0	0
2P.Wisdom, 1B	0-2	0	0
2M.Busch, PH	0-1	0	0
2M.Busch, 1B	0-1	0	0
3I.Happ, LF	0-3	0	0
4C.Morel, DH	1-3	0	0
5D.Swanson, SS	0-3	1	0
6M.Tauchman, CF	2-4	1	0
6M.Tauchman, RF	2-4	1	0
7N.Madrigal, 3B	0-3	0	0
8M.Amaya, C	0-1	0	1
8M.Mervis, PH	0-1	0	1
9A.Canario, RF	1-2	0	0
9P.Crow-Armstrong, PH	0-2	0	0
9P.Crow-Armstrong, CF	0-2	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LS.Manaea, P	92	5	3	1
RS.Reid-Foley, P	21	1	1	0
RR.Garrett, P	15	1	1	0
RA.Ottavino, P	9	1	1	0
RJ.Lopez, P	21	1	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, LF	1-4	0	0	0
2F.Lindor, SS	1-4	1	0	0
3P.Alonso, 1B	0-3	0	0	1
4J.Martinez, DH	1-4	1	0	0
5J.McNeil, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
6T.Taylor, CF	1-4	1	0	0
6T.Taylor, RF	1-4	1	0	0
7D.Stewart, RF	1-3	1	1	3
7H.Bader, CF	0-0	0	0	0
8B.Baty, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
9O.Narvaez, C	0-3	0	0	0