The MLB regular season continues with a 16-game slate this Tuesday, including a doubleheader in Detroit between the Cardinals and Tigers.
Our baseball experts have locked in picks for five of today's matchups, including predictions for Rockies vs. Marlins, Mets vs. Cubs, Giants vs. Red Sox, Nationals vs. Rangers and Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks.
Read below for our MLB best bets tonight.
MLB Best Bets Tonight
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 8:05 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rockies vs. Marlins
Ryan Feltner hasn’t pitched poorly to begin the season — he's actually been unlucky.
His expected ERA is sitting two runs lower than his actual ERA.
The Stuff+ numbers are pretty. His slider boasts a 101 mark, while his changeup grades out well above average.
Unfortunately, he's allowing too many free passes (3.55 walks per nine), and his fastball is getting crushed (.485 xwOBACON) because it doesn't have much carry, ride or movement (13th percentile iVB, 23rd percentile iHB).
So, he's still projected as a 5.00 ERA pitcher for the rest of the season. Even if you believe he's an above-average pitcher by the Stuff metrics, he's still a below-average pitcher from a projection standpoint.
Meanwhile, Sixto Sanchez was supposed to develop into one of Miami's best starters, but injuries have sidetracked his career.
He was pumping in 99 mph fastballs regularly in 2020 but barely averaging 95 mph in 2024. His Stuff+ metrics have dipped considerably, now at 94 across his arsenal.
Sanchez has become a bullpen piece but has been forced into the rotation, where he couldn't make it through three innings against Atlanta.
With the decreased velocity on his fastball mix, he's generating fewer whiffs, meaning opposing hitters have been crushing.
Additionally, both bullpens are struggling, with Colorado and Miami's relief corps ranking among the bottom 10 MLB units in ERA and expected FIP.
I have 9.2 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Over 8.
Pick: Over 8 (-115)
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Mets vs. Cubs
By D.J. James
The Chicago Cubs may have found something in Javier Assad.
The righty has flown under the radar in the National League. His batted-ball profile is elite, and his strikeout rate is above average.
On Tuesday, his opponent will be Sean Manaea and the New York Mets.
Manaea is fine but has been lucky. His batted-ball profile isn't pretty, and his 13% walk rate is sky-high — there's a reason his expected ERA is above 5.00.
The Cubs hammer lefties, and luckily, they get one in Manaea.
On the season, Chicago has a 20.3% strikeout rate and a 9.4% walk rate against southpaws, adding up to a 136 wRC+. They have faced fewer lefties than average but have five bats with a .330+ xwOBA. Patrick Wisdom and Matt Mervis are above but have fewer than ten plate appearances. Needless to say, they can hit lefties and draw walks.
The Mets have been above average in the bullpen, but that unit still has a walk rate over 10% and a strikeout rate hovering around 20%. The Cubs should match up nicely for the most part.
The Cubs have a weaker bullpen, but Assad has been reliable. Plus, New York is only a touch above average against righties.
Take the Cubs in this game on the road.
Pick: Cubs ML (+110)
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Giants vs. Red Sox
By Sean Paul
Let’s head to the Northeast for my MLB best bet for Tuesday.
The Boston Red Sox begin a three-game set against the San Francisco Giants, who endured a long travel day from the Bay to Boston.
I’m looking to back the road favs in this one.
The Giants starter, Logan Webb, looks like a surefire NL CY Young candidate, boasting a 2.33 ERA in 38.2 innings. Webb is on an electric run, allowing just one earned across his past 22 1/3 innings. He’s not a strikeout artist, but he possesses pinpoint control, and all his pitches move. It keeps the opponents off balance, and he should have success forcing the Red Sox into quick ground ball outs.
It’s just a matter of time until Red Sox hurler Cooper Criswell turns into… Cooper Criswell.
The Red Sox paid Criswell one million dollars if he made the big league roster. They didn’t expect much from Criswell, and he has a 2.38 ERA over 11.1 innings. That’s more than the Red Sox could’ve asked for from the journeyman's arm, but his 3.89 FIP and 4.61 xFIP will surface here.
The Giants perform better against right-handed pitching, with Lamonte Wade Jr. setting the table at the top of the order. Wade is the Giants pound-for-pound best hitter, posting a 161 wRC+. The only thing is Wade only plays against righties, so Bob Melvin will swap in Austin Slater if the Red Sox counter with a lefty reliever.
Ultimately, the Giants barely laying minus money won’t happen too often with Webb on the hill. So, I’m rolling with the possible CY Young winner.
Pick: Giants ML (-130)
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Nationals vs. Rangers
By Cody Goggin
I bet this prop last week and was wrong, but I’m returning to the well with Jon Gray’s strikeout under.
Gray has a career-high 29.1% strikeout rate this season in 24 2/3 innings pitched but ranks 122nd out of 132 pitchers in Stuff+ (min. 20 IP). His mark of 81 is lower than his 97 from last season when he posted a 4.12 ERA with a 21.6% strikeout rate.
Gray’s fastball velocity this season is in the 56th percentile, below where he has sat for much of his career. He ranks in the 22nd percentile among qualified pitchers in expected batting average allowed, 14th percentile in expected slugging allowed, and in the 12th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. He's also walking over 10% of batters.
I tried this angle against Seattle last week, but the Mariners have the league's highest strikeout rate.
Conversely, the Nationals boast the league's 13th-lowest strikeout rate, so they should put more balls in play and knock Gray out of the game before he reaches six Ks.
I’m still not buying into Jon Gray’s breakout. His Stuff+ and Statcast numbers are both lackluster, and I think he will eventually regress.
I project Gray for 3.52 strikeouts with a median outcome of 3, so I love the under at 5.5 tonight.
Pick: Jon Gray Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)
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Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
By Tony Sartori
Los Angeles hands the ball to right-handed rookie Landon Knack on Tuesday evening, and he has gotten off to a strong start with a 3.27 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through his first two outings.
But is this sustainable?
His underlying metrics suggest not. Entering Tuesday's matchup, Knack ranks in the 40th percentile among qualified pitchers in expected ERA, second percentile in average exit velocity allowed, 23rd percentile in barrel rate allowed, and fifth percentile in hard-hit rate allowed.
So, let's sell high on his strikeout prop.
Arizona's lineup boasts MLB's third-lowest strikeout rate, while Knack ranks in the fourth percentile in chase rate, 40th percentil in whiff rate and 37th percentile in strikeout rate.
Pick: Landon Knack Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+135)
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