NFL Week 18 Odds, Picks for Every Game, Every Team | How to Bet NFL Season Finale

Here's everything you need to know about NFL Week 18 odds and picks for every game and every team as we preview how to bet the NFL regular season finale.

Regardless of your level of betting experience, this is the NFL preview for you. These bets are designed to give you something to cheer for, with the updated odds for every game and every team, capped by my full betting card at the bottom of this article.

Week 18 means some teams resting and others facing must-win situations, so I'll note incentives for each team below.

That creates overconfident markets with artificially inflated lines for those must-win teams. Books consistently overvalue teams facing must-win spots late in the season, when bettors are prone to assume teams playing for the playoffs will take care of business against inferior teams.

NFL Week 18 Odds, Picks for Every Game, Every Team

Game	Road Pick	Home Pick
Steelers vs Ravens
Texans vs Colts
Jaguars vs Titans
Buccaneers vs Panthers
Falcons vs Saints
Vikings vs Lions
Browns vs Bengals
Jets vs Patriots
Bears vs Packers
Seahawks vs Cardinals
Cowboys vs Commanders
Eagles vs Giants
Broncos vs Raiders
Rams vs 49ers
Chiefs vs Chargers
Bills vs Dolphins

From Week 16 forward, teams with a 40-to-60% win rate facing an opponent 8-to-25% worse by win rate are an awful 29-72-5 ATS, covering just 29% of the time. Simply fading every one of those must-win teams would have resulted in a 36% ROI for bettors over the past two decades. This week, just two teams fit that overinflated trend: the Jaguars and Seahawks. Beware.

In a similar vein, here's another similar trend from Stuckey. Since 1990, teams that need to win in the final two weeks facing an opponent already eliminated from the postseason are just 64-100-4 ATS (39%). Seattle and Jacksonville get warning flags there too, along with Green Bay and Tampa Bay.

One last note before we get to the updated picks — these lines are always moving, especially with the constantly shifting Week 18 news. If you have questions, ask me on Twitter/X @wheatonbrando.

NFL Week 18 Betting Preview by Schedule

Jaguars vs Titans Odds, Picks

Sunday, Jan 7

1:00pm ET

CBS

Jaguars Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3.5 -102	41.5 -105o / -115u	-180

Titans Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3.5 -120	41.5 -105o / -115u	+152

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Jaguars: Almost everything. Win and Jacksonville clinches the division as well as a home playoff game. Lose and they're out unless both Denver and Pittsburgh lose too.
• Titans: Nothing. Playing the spoiler role.

• Well, we know half of the QB equation now. Will Levis will sit, which means one final start for Ryan Tannehill. We don't know Jacksonville's QB yet and might not until right before kickoff. Trevor Lawrence sat last week and is battling a barrage of injuries and some odd off-field rumors, but it would be a surprise if he doesn't at least try to play with the season on the line. Jaguars WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones are also questionable.
• The Jaguars have won only four of the last 13 games against the Titans, and these games typically aren't close. Nine of those 13 games saw a win by at least 12 points. One team has swept the other in five of the last six seasons, notable since the Jaguars won 34-14 in November.
• Jacksonville is a bullseye as one of those overinflated must-win Week 18 teams. The Jaguars won big last week but had lost four in a row before that, and historic trends suggest Jacksonville is probably getting too much credit in the market here. Be careful.

Jacksonville's win last week was about the defense. The Jaguars defense was a revelation early in the season and finally looked itself against the Panthers. Jacksonville's defense has been much better on the road at fifth in DVOA versus just 16th at home. Tennessee's defense is bottom five on the road but near top 10 at home.

This shapes up as a defensive battle, especially with all the injuries, and both defenses have been far better in the first half too — with Jacksonville fifth and Tennessee eighth by DVOA, versus 13th and 29th respectively in the second half. Jaguars games are 12-4 to the under in the first half this season, best in the NFL. We may also see gusty winds here, triggering some wind and outdoor under trends.

With the offense so banged up, it has to be the defense getting the job done for Jacksonville this week.

Tennessee's offense has struggled late in the season, but Ryan Tannehill is probably still an improvement over Levis for now and DeAndre Hopkins should be locked in and motivated with some key incentives on the line. Derrick Henry also has a great history against the Jaguars and might be playing his last game in Titans colors, so he can still perform against a strong Jacksonville run defense.

Tennessee's rush defense ranks third up the middle where Jacksonville ranks dead last and runs 60% of its attack, so that puts this all on the Jaguars passing game. If Lawrence, Kirk, and Jones all end up playing, that may be enough, but C.J. Beathard is 3-10 straight up in his career and had never won a game as a favorite until last week.

This is one of the trendiest spots on the Week 18 slate. Teams that need a win facing an eliminated team over the final two weeks are 64-100-4 ATS (39%) since 1990, and teams at 40-to-60% win rate facing an opponent 8-to-25% worse are just 29-72-5 ATS (29%) from Week 16 forward the past two decades. Mike Vrabel is always tough as an underdog at 24-14-2 ATS as a dog of three or more (63%), and teams that just lost by 17-plus when facing an opponent that just won by 17+ are 108-69-4 ATS (61%).

The numbers all tell the same story. The Jaguars are getting too much credit in the market and the Titans have value. I think Tennessee can win this game. The Titans had been competitive all the way until last week's blowout loss, and they're the only side to play here.

This is my favorite side on the Sunday slate, with a number of key trends backing the Titans. Tennessee is much better at home and probably better with Tannehill right now. The Jaguars' only real advantage is in the passing game, and that's offset by the question marks surrounding Lawrence and the receivers.

This line was Titans +5.5 earlier in the week when I bet it, and it could still get back there or even +6 or longer if you wait for Lawrence news just before kickoff. If he's ruled out, it probably drops below the key number. Even if he does play, he may not be his usual self with all those injuries.

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Buccaneers vs Panthers Odds, Picks

Sunday, Jan 7

1:00pm ET

FOX

Buccaneers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-4.5 -110	36.5 -114o / -106u	-235

Panthers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+4.5 -110	36.5 -114o / -106u	+194

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Buccaneers: Everything. Win and Tampa Bay clinches the division and a home playoff game. Lose and they're out.
• Panthers: Nothing but pride.

• The Bucs have won eight of the past 10 meetings, and only two of the past eight matchups even finished within single digits.
• We could get windy conditions on game day, with winds currently expected to be at least 10 mph.
• The Bucs are one of those teams needing a win facing an eliminated team to be careful of, and Baker Mayfield is poor as an ATS favorite while teams like Carolina, coming off a shutout, tend to be undervalued.

The Panthers rank last by DVOA, so they have a lot of flaws, but the Bucs aren't built to take advantage of Carolina's weakest spot, its run defense. It'll likely have to come in the air, and Mike Evans had a huge game against Carolina last time out with 162 yards and a score on seven catches.

Carolina is particularly bad against WR1s and has allowed big lines to Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson and Chris Olave among others, and the Panthers are also bad against deep balls. Evans has been balling all season, and when Tampa Bay needs a big play, he's the guy Mayfield looks for. He's leading the league in touchdowns and has even odds to score again here, and he has at least 39 yards in all but one game and at least 60 in 10 of 16. One long pass likely pushes him over this line.

NFC South divisional games have been ugly this season with nine of 10 matchups finishing at 39 points or less. Todd Bowles tends to go under on the road, and Baker Mayfield tends to go under in games with lower totals, too. The trends like the under even at a low number — but I'll play just the first half.

Bucs games tend to be lower scoring in the first half. Tampa Bay's offense ranks 26th by DVOA there, but leaps to ninth in the second half, while the defense is better early at sixth versus 24th in the second half. Carolina's defense is similar, holding up in the first half at 16th before dropping to last in the second half. Expect the Panthers to give it a go and keep things low scoring and close — at least for awhile.

I may end up playing an Evans or Adam Thielen over if the wind isn't too bad, but I ultimately expect the Bucs to take care of business and win the division.

If you're holding a ticket on Mike Evans to lead the league in receiving TDs at +6000 that we grabbed preseason, you might consider a small hedge on Tyreek Hill +500 to score 2+ TDs (FanDuel). Hill is one behind Evans, so he'd have to beat Evans by at least two for us to lose that bet totally, while making up one score is still a huge win for us at most books.

Stay up to date on the latest news about bet365 North Carolina. 

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Falcons vs Saints Odds, Picks

Sunday, Jan 7

1:00pm ET

CBS

Falcons Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3 -105	41.5 -110o / -110u	+152

Saints Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3 -115	41.5 -110o / -110u	-180

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Falcons: Everything … ? Atlanta is definitely out with a loss. A win plus a Bucs loss is the Falcons' only path to the playoffs, via a division title.
• Saints: Everything. New Orleans is out with a loss, but a win means the Saints can still win the division or snag a wild-card spot, though they'll need help in both scenarios.

• The Saints have had the upper hand in this rivalry, winning nine of the past 12, with Atlanta's offense struggling to post just 20.9 ppg. But four of the past six matchups finished within one score.
• Alvin Kamara looks like a doubt with a high ankle sprain and he'd be a big miss against a Falcons defense that's worst in the league by DVOA against receiving RBs.

Atlanta's offense remains dreadful, but the defense has been really good, top 10 by DVOA over the past six weeks and terrific on third downs and by Success Rate all season. The Falcons defense can hang with the Saints and give Atlanta a chance, especially in a game that's likely to be low scoring and close. The Saints defense has proven beatable and ranks bottom five in stopping the run, the one thing Atlanta's offense is supposed to be able to do.

Besides, this might be your last chance ever to fade Dennis Allen as a favorite. Every way you slice it, the numbers are horrific. Allen is 7-16-1 ATS as a favorite (30%), including 3-8-1 ATS just this season (27%). He's 2-7-1 ATS as a division favorite (22%) and 4-16-2 ATS after a win (20%). Derek Carr hasn't been any better either at 20-37-2 ATS as a favorite (35%).

We've been playing NFC South divisional matchup unders all season, so why stop now? The Saints defense cratered midseason, but has gotten healthier and rebounded, and Atlanta's offense has been stout. Both defenses have the upper hand, and NFC South division games have failed to hit 40 points in nine of 10 games this season.

Saints games are at 36 or below over half the time, with New Orleans 11-5 to the under and Atlanta 10-6 to the under. This division is horrific, and there's a chance both these teams are effectively eliminated by the fourth quarter, when both offenses tend to finally kick it into gear anyway.

When in doubt, just keep betting on NFC South ineptitude. If you give me an NFC South game with a total starting with a four, I'm taking the under and not thinking twice. Get this God-forsaken division outta here.

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Vikings vs Lions Odds, Picks

Sunday, Jan 7

1:00pm ET

FOX

Vikings Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+4 -112	47.5 -108o / -112u	+164

Lions Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-4 -108	47.5 -108o / -112u	-196

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Vikings: Long shot hopes. Lose and the Vikings are out. Win and they still need losses from Seattle, Green Bay and either the Bucs or Saints to stay alive.
• Lions: Very little. Detroit has clinched the division and is locked into the 3-seed unless the Lions win and get losses from both the Cowboys and Eagles, which would bump the Lions to No. 2.

• We waited for news about Detroit possibly resting guys but still haven't gotten anything definitive. It's tough to know how much or how long the Lions will try here, though it's notable that Detroit can still improve its seed and won't know the result of the Dallas or Philadelphia games since the Lions play earlier.
• The injury report actually favors the Lions for now, not the Vikings. Minnesota will be without RT Brian O'Neill, one of the highest graded PFF tackles this season, while LT Christian Darrisaw and G Ed Ingram are also questionable. Meanwhile Detroit may actually get run-stuffing DT Alim McNeil back, and its offensive line looks ready to go.
• The Vikings had won eight straight in this rivalry but Detroit has won three of four since. Five of the last six meetings have finished as one-score games.

These teams just played two weeks ago and it was very clear who was the better team. Minnesota's defense has stumbled down the stretch and is beatable over the middle and against short passes, and Ben Johnson's offense killed the Vikings last time with a death by a thousand cuts. The Lions should be able to run the ball too, so as long as Detroit's starters are out there, the Lions should have the lead. It's telling that Detroit is the favored team here, not the desperate Vikings.

The Vikings offense has fallen apart without Kirk Cousins, no matter who has replaced him. Minnesota ranks second-to-last by DVOA offensively over the past six games, with the same rating for its passing attack. Detroit's defense is vulnerable but handled the Vikings two weeks ago, forcing Nick Mullens into repeated baited interceptions.

The Lions are better, and as long as they're trying, they should get the job done. Isolate the first quarter and let's hope the starters last at least that long.

One of my most popular articles of the season is a Week 18 NFL parlays article I do where we put together correlated angles to get an edge on the books. Minnesota can still make the playoffs but needs plenty of help. The Vikings need the Packers and Seahawks to lose, and they also need either the Bucs or Saints to lose — and of course Minnesota needs to win its own game.

I have my doubts about the Vikings winning, and think it's possible this team just totally lets go of the rope if things don't look good early. But if Minnesota hangs on, the playoff dream isn't as far-fetched as it seems. Chicago and Arizona have been feisty underdogs lately, and the NFC South teams have blown games as favorites all season.

You can just play the Vikings at +2500 to make the postseason at DraftKings, but we get an extra $10 for every $1 if we pick one of the two scenarios here. Baker Mayfield is banged up and Carolina needs to end its season with some good news. Let's give it a shot.

Pick: Vikings Make the Playoffs (+3775)

Tail at FanDuel With QuickSlip

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Browns vs Bengals Odds, Picks

Sunday, Jan 7

1:00pm ET

CBS

Browns Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+7.5 -118	37.5 -102o / -120u	+270

Bengals Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-7.5 -104	37.5 -102o / -120u	-335

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Browns: Nothing. Cleveland has clinched a wild-card berth and is locked into the 5-seed.
• Bengals: Nothing. Cincinnati has been eliminated.

• Cleveland will rest Joe Flacco and other key starters, leaving Jeff Driskel as the fifth Browns QB starter this season and P.J. Walker playing backup.
• The Browns have actually dominated this division rivalry recently, winning six of the past seven and nine of the past 11.
• It could be blustery in Ohio, with temperatures in the 30s and winds over 10 mph expected.

Why exactly are the Bengals favored by a full touchdown? The Browns can only rest so many guys, and this absolutely feels like a defense that will play with pride and look to end the season strong.

Cleveland should dominate in the trenches both ways and make life hard on Jake Browning, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see guys like Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in limited roles after a season full of injuries with nothing on the line. The Browns defense has been even better at home, and Cincinnati's defense is miserable. AFC North underdogs in Week 14 and later are 44-24-1 ATS (65%).

Four previous Browns starting QBs have already won a game — why not make it five?

Cleveland's defense is awesome so it might not be pretty for Browning, especially if Cincinnati's top offensive weapons don't do much. But it's not like the Browns offense has been great, and with Flacco resting, it would be a surprise to see Jeff Driskel lead Cleveland to many points.

A number of trends point to an under here, even at a deflated total. Games with 10-mph winds have gone under 64% of the time over the past three seasons, and division games tend to go under in outdoor conditions and/or with low totals late in the season. It's going to be ugly. Take the under.

No interest in this game, though I may sprinkle a Browns ML (+250) just because there's really no good reason the Bengals should be favored by this much.

Sports betting is coming to the Tar Heel State! Stay up to date on the latest news on Caesars North Carolina. 

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Jets vs Patriots Odds, Picks

Sunday, Jan 7

1:00pm ET

FOX

Jets Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1.5 -105	29.5 -110o / -110u	+118

Patriots Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1.5 -115	29.5 -110o / -110u	-138

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Jets: Nothing. Aaron Rodgers ain't walking through that door.
• Patriots: Probably nothing? A loss clinches a top-three pick in a draft with a clear top three, but a win extends New England's voodoo over the Jets and could potentially be Bill Belichick's final home win for with the franchise.

• This looks like the most wintery game of the weekend, with temperatures in the low 30s, winds gusting into the teens, and a 65% chance of snow.
• The total for this game is 30. That's 30 for both teams, for the entire game, like this is some sort of Iowa college game on a Sunday. Unless the line makes it back to 31, that will be the lowest closing total for any NFL game since December 2005 when the Bears visited Pittsburgh in a snowy mud bowl.
• It feels like it's almost been that long since the Jets beat the Patriots, too. New England has won 15 straight against the Jets. New York hasn't won since December 2015, and its last regulation win over the Pats was way back in the 2011 playoffs with Mark Sanchez at the helm. It's been a minute.

Dalvin Cook has been cut at last, mercifully off the roster after a disastrous season, and it's been the Breece Hall show for awhile now. Hall is just about the only offensive weapon the Jets have, and lately he's been finding just as much success as a pass catcher as he does a runner.

Hall is averaging six receptions a game over his last 11 games, and that goes above seven over the past six  games. He's at 7.2 catches for 47.2 yards during that stretch with at least six receptions in all but one game. These are mostly dump-offs and the yardage hasn't been there, so you want receptions, not yards.

New England ranks bottom five against short passes, and the ugly weather sets up for more dump-off RB passes than ever. Hall has 7-6-8-1-12-9 receptions these last six games. This will be one of my top props of the week, if books ever give us lines. Hall's line was 4.5 catches last week, and he doubled that. I'd love to smash an over 4.5 or even 5.5, and would look for 8+ and 10+ reception escalators too.

Be honest, Patriots fans — the draft pick matters more than the Jets streak at this point, and this awful season wouldn't feel complete without one final awful loss to end things. Forget about winning one for the Gipper and Bill Belichick. A loss here is far better for the franchise and could mean the No. 2 draft pick, pending outcomes around the league.

These teams are mostly the same. Both are awful offense with great defense, but the Jets defense is clearly better. New York also has a massive special teams edge. If the game really is this low scoring, it should be a toss-up. Just let your heart and wallet root for the same thing.

Breece Hall has been a reception machine the back half of the season, and his reception props have been much safer than the associated yardage. I keep checking for lines here, but at 4.5 receptions a week ago, Hall has been badly mispriced. Be ready to ride the escalator if we do get lines.

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Bears vs Packers Odds, Picks

Sunday, Jan 7

4:25pm ET

CBS

Bears Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3 -120	45.5 -115o / -105u	+126

Packers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3 -102	45.5 -115o / -105u	-148

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Bears: Nothing but pride. Chicago has been eliminated, but can knock out its division rivals with a win.
• Packers: Everything … probably. Win and the Packers are in. But Green Bay can still get in with a loss if they receive some help in three other games, two of which will already be completed.

• The injury report is pretty messy both ways here. A.J. Dillon is out for the Packers, and Green Bay has a flurry of questionable names including almost all its pass catchers — Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Luke Musgrave — along with key trenchmen Elgton Jenkins and Preston Smith. Chicago is listing Cole Kmet and Khalil Herbert as questionable, while No. 1 PFF-graded CB Jaylon Johnson is doubtful after not practicing all week.
• The Packers have totally dominated this rivalry, if you can even call it that. Green Bay has won nine straight against Chicago and 24 of the last 27. In fact, we haven't even had a game closer than seven points since the last Bears win back in December 2018. Aaron Rodgers owned the Bears. Does Jordan Love, too?
• The Bears quietly have the third best DVOA in the NFL behind only the Ravens and 49ers over the past six weeks, led by a No. 2 defense that ranks top four against both the run and the pass. Green Bay has played at the extremes, with a top five offense but a defense ranked 30th.
• Chicago's defense has forced at least three turnovers in five of its last six games, but is that superficially inflating the defensive numbers, and can it hold up if Jaylon Johnson is out? Green Bay hasn't turned it over much, though Love and the offense have been inconsistent, especially against good defenses. These are both good teams, but they're also young and unpredictable, making it tough to get a good read.

Green Bay's defense is terrible at pretty much everything. There's been a lot of talk in Chicago about whether the Bears should keep Justin Fields around, but the truth is that this Bears renaissance has been about its defense and its run game far more than great play at QB, even if Fields has improved along the way. Chicago is at its best running the ball and letting the defense set up the Bears for success.

Khalil Herbert is questionable, so be sure to watch the injury report, but he appears to be in line for a big game if he does suit up. He ran 38 times for 236 yards the last two weeks, with at least 100 yards and a score in both games. This is his best stretch of the season, and he should close the season strong if he's cleared. It wouldn't be crazy to skip the traditional line and just play 100+ at +375 since there's a chance Herbert could be shut down early if the injury pops. Go for broke.

Green Bay should get all it can handle here, but Chicago's defense is much worse on the road and in the first half by DVOA, so that could set up the home team to get out early and turn this into a playoff celebration. The Packers are short on receiving options with all the injuries, but one player that's stepped up big of late is rookie TE Tucker Kraft.

Kraft has played nearly every snap over the past six weeks, and his production level is finally starting to reflect it. He's had at least four catches in each of the last four games, averaging 4.5 receptions for 57.3 YPG over that span and clearing this line all four games. Chicago's defense ranks near the bottom of the league on third down, and Kraft is becoming one of Love's reliable security blankets. He's a good bet to go over this line again. It should probably be a reception higher, and we're getting it at plus money.

I'm excited to watch this game but don't have a great read on a side with the books finally catching up to Chicago some. Trends like the under, but I prefer to attack props and like both these angles. Kraft's receptions line finally popped at FanDuel so I'll grab that one and then just play the alternate over for Herbert, since there's still an injury risk with him.

One other thing to keep an eye on — if you tailed in the preseason, we're sitting on Dak Prescott +2000 and Brock Purdy +6000 tickets to lead the league in passing touchdowns. They're the two leaders right now. Purdy isn't playing. Prescott is, but could always go scoreless. Jordan Love had a big game last week and is suddenly a threat, so betting Love for 3+ TDs could be a smart hedge.

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Seahawks vs Cardinals Odds, Picks

Sunday, Jan 7

4:25pm ET

FOX

Seahawks Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3 -104	47.5 -110o / -110u	-154

Cardinals Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3 -118	47.5 -110o / -110u	+130

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Seahawks: Everything. Seattle is eliminated with a loss. The Seahawks need a win and a Packers loss to make the playoffs.
• Cardinals: Nothing but the spoiler role. Arizona is already locked outside the top three picks in the draft unless Washington or New England wins, though another win could drop the Cardinals as low as No. 7.

• The Cardinals have won only nine of the past 27 meetings, but Arizona has been a live 'dog this season and just shocked the Eagles last week.
• Seattle is a bullseye of a must-win team to be careful about betting on. Remember, must-win teams facing an eliminated team are 39% ATS over the last two weeks of the season since 1990, and teams with a middling, slightly better win rate are 29% ATS from Week 16 forward the past two decades. Kyler Murray is also 24-14-2 ATS (63%) as an underdog. Arizona looks very live here.

Could we get a desert shootout to end the season?

Arizona's defense is terrible and has been all season. The Cardinals rank last by DVOA, last against middle runs, last against deep passes and are bottom three against left- and right-side passes. Even in big upset wins over the Eagles and Cowboys, it wasn't exactly the defense standing out. Geno Smith should light up this secondary.

Seattle is going to score, but the Seahawks are probably going to concede some points too. Seattle has a bottom-five defense by DVOA over the past six weeks and ranks last against the run. Arizona ranks third rushing the ball during that span and has been terrific all year when James Conner is healthy. Seattle ranks almost as poorly as Arizona against WR2s, against middle runs and short passes, and on third down.

The Cardinals are a perfect 7-0 to the over in Jonathan Gannon's home games, averaging 55 ppg and going over the total by almost 11 ppg. Let's finish the season perfect.

We should definitely see plenty of scoring in this one, and James Conner looks like the game's most likely touchdown scorer to me.

Both defenses have been gashed by opposing RBs all season, each top three in touchdowns allowed to opposing RBs. Seattle has allowed at least one rushing touchdown in seven straight games — with 13 total allowed in that stretch — and at least one in all but three games.

Conner has quietly been terrific again when he's healthy enough to play, and he's found the endzone in four straight games with six touchdowns in that stretch. Unless Kyler Murray vultures our score, Conner should strike pay dirt again.

I really want to talk myself into Arizona any number of ways.

I'm looking at Cardinals +2.5, though I wish the line wasn't so short and it feels like the books have sniffed it out a bit, and I've considered the over and the Cardinals team total over 22.5. Arizona is averaging 22.7 ppg with Murray in the lineup and the Cardinals should score. But if Arizona's going to score and win, someone has to score, so let's just ride with Conner.

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Cowboys vs Commanders Odds, Picks

Sunday, Jan 7

4:25pm ET

FOX

Cowboys Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-13.5 -104	46.5 -112o / -108u	-900

Commanders Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+13.5 -118	46.5 -112o / -108u	+610

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Cowboys: The 2-seed and the NFC East crown. Win and the Cowboys stay home until at least the NFC Championship Game. Lose and they drop to the 5-seed unless the Eagles lose too, though Dallas has already clinched a playoff berth.
• Commanders: Nothing but pride. Washington is currently drafting at No. 2, so the Commanders are highly incentivized to lose this game.

• The Cowboys have dominated this division rivalry in recent years, winning 11 of the last 15, including a 45-10 drubbing on Thanksgiving this season.
• Sam Howell will start for Washington despite being benched a week ago since Jacoby Brissett got hurt in between.
• Weather could be a factor with winds at 11 mph and gusting into the teens.

The Cowboys aren't playing quite as well as they were midseason, but there's still a massive gulf between these teams, and we saw it on Thanksgiving.

Howell is a sack-eating machine and will see nightmares against Dallas's league-best Pass Rush Win Rate. And the Cowboys offense should eat against a defense that's totally let go of the rope. Washington is worst in the league against WR1s by DVOA, so CeeDee Lamb should get what he wants, and the Commanders are second-to-last against middle runs, the one area Dallas has been quite successful. Just a boring, easy script should be enough for Dallas.

Washington has long since mailed in its season, but you always expect a big home underdog to make one final stand here in what's probably the last game for Ron Rivera and this iteration of  the Commanders. But Washington has been awful in first halves all year while the Cowboys offense is far better in the first half at 7th in DVOA versus 21st, which is probably why Washington is 5-11 ATS in the first half and Dallas is 11-5.

Skip the inflated full game line. If Dallas is going to win comfortably, it'll be because the Cowboys took care of things early. Play at BetRivers to get under the key number and grab the -6.5.

The Cowboys defense is great, and the pass rush should wreak havoc on Howell and his shoddy blocking. Washington probably won't score much. But if Dallas does struggle here, it will likely be because the offense comes out stuck in mud. Washington's defense can be high variance, and the Commanders offense has played much worse at home while the Cowboys offense is much worse away from home.

That should lead to fewer points, and trends support an under too. It's typically a good idea to back a double-digit underdog at home, especially in a division rivalry, and we could get some wind and outdoors under trends popping here too if those winds do keep up. Dak Prescott road unders are 34-21 (62%), the third-most profitable QB in our system.

This is the one game with a huge spread this week, and the only real reason the Cowboys shouldn't blow the hapless Commanders out of the water is because they're the Cowboys.

This team is different the way Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are playing, and Dallas fought all season to get back into position to have this chance to clinch the division and the 2-seed. Prescott is great in division games and great as a big favorite. I think the Cowboys take care of things quickly.

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Eagles vs Giants Odds, Picks

Sunday, Jan 7

4:25pm ET

CBS

Eagles Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-4.5 -120	42.5 -115o / -105u	-240

Giants Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+4.5 -102	42.5 -115o / -105u	+198

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Eagles: Possible playoff positioning. The Eagles can still win the NFC East and secure the 2-seed, but only if they win and Dallas loses. If the heavily favored Cowboys go up big, Philadelphia will know it's locked into the 5-seed with a road game next weekend.
• Giants: Nothing but pride. New York is currently picking at No. 5 in the draft and would need a loss and two very unlikely wins to move into the top three.

• The Eagles have won five straight in the rivalry, all by at least six points, and Philadelphia has won 17 of 20 games against the Giants.
• DeVonta Smith is likely out with an ankle injury. It's still possible the Eagles could end up resting other players, or possibly pull starters mid-game, since a quick Cowboys lead removes any real incentive for Philadelphia to risk anything and locks the Eagles into the 5-seed.

Last year's Eagles would house these Giants. New York ranks 29th in first-down defense and has an awful run defense and a terrible offensive line. Last year, Philadelphia would've just run the ball down New York's throat and moved the ball all game, then dominated on the other side with its pass rush.

Last year is last year. This year's Eagles are more of a passing team, and the passing attack has still been pretty good. Philadelphia's offense really isn't the big problem right now, and if the Eagles do compete, they should score easily enough. But let's be honest: This terrible defense is going to concede some points, especially since New York's offense has played significantly better with Tyrod Taylor under center.

The only way this team is winning games right now is by putting up a big score.

The Eagles only beat the Giants by one score two weeks ago, and now we're in New York, where the Giants have been vastly better. They've been especially better on defense and actually rank in the top half of the league at home versus 30th in DVOA on the road. The pass defense is top 10 over the past six games, which will be the key against Jalen Hurts since that's the strength of this team right now.

The Giants offense has been better with Taylor at quarterback, and Darren Waller is in line for a nice game against a team that can't cover tight ends. Brian Daboll is 11-5 ATS after a loss and 7-3 ATS as a division underdog. This is New York's Super Bowl, and the Giants will want to finally beat the Eagles and end their season on a good note. Think of it as fading Philadelphia as much as betting on New York.

I like this number for the Giants anyway for all of the above reasons, but I also like that we get extra outs here since Philadelphia could call off the dogs mid-game if the Cowboys get out ahead, or even rest some starters from the jump. If you like this, don't wait around for a better line because the line could move drastically if Hurts, A.J. Brown and others end up sitting.

You might also consider playing a correlated parlay here and betting Giants +5.5 with a Cowboys angle. If Dallas goes up big — maybe Cowboys 1H -6.5 — the Eagles are all the more motivated to pull the plug.

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Broncos vs Raiders Odds, Picks

Sunday, Jan 7

4:25pm ET

FOX

Broncos Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3 -110	37.5 -104o / -118u	+138

Raiders Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3 -110	37.5 -104o / -118u	-164

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Broncos: Nothing. Denver was eliminated last week, though finishing over .500 would be nice.
• Raiders: Nothing, though Antonio Pierce would love to add one more win in his push for the full-time head coaching role.

• Hilariously, even though this game doesn't matter for either of these teams, there is a scenario where the result of this game would determine whether the Bills or Steelers get the final AFC wild-card spot, with all other competing teams already done playing.
• The Raiders have won seven straight against the Broncos, though four of the past six meetings finished within six points. These games are usually close and weird.

Denver's offense has been worse on the road this season, and the Raiders defense is actually pretty good. Las Vegas is a top-five defense by DVOA over the past six weeks, and Denver's defense has rebounded nicely after its awful start. This is actually one of the better matchups on paper, even if it doesn't matter.

Defenses should have the upper hand, and Aidan O'Connell and Jarrett Stidham probably aren't going to put up a ton of points. Late-season games tend to go under when both teams are eliminated. This is effectively a preseason game, and this line is a bit high for a preseason affair.

Both defenses have been pretty bad against the run all season, but Denver has been especially bad, even as the pass defense rebounded after an awful start. The Broncos have allowed the second-most rushing yards and fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, and Zamir White has stepped into a workhorse role with Josh Jacobs injured.

White has toted the rock 17, 22, and 20 times the last three games as a starter, tallying 285 rushing yards, an average of 95 per game on almost 20 rushing attempts. The Broncos have already allowed 1,901 yards to opposing RBs this season, just 16 yards from the worst mark in the league, and Las Vegas has prioritized its rushing attack since Antonio Pierce took over.

I waited all week for White props but we're still not seeing lines as of noon on Saturday. I think White has a good chance of cracking 100 yards on the ground. His posted lines were 17.5 rushing attempts and 74.5 yards last week, with 100+ yards around +225 to +250. If we get lines anything close to those, I'm all over Zamir White's rushing yards overs and escalators, maybe as high as 150+ yards.

This is my favorite yardage prop of the week, so here's hoping the cowardly books actually give us lines at some point. I think White has a big game to close the season.

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Rams vs 49ers Odds, Picks

Sunday, Jan 7

4:25pm ET

FOX

Rams Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+4 -110	40.5 -104o / -118u	+172

49ers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-4 -110	40.5 -104o / -118u	-205

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Rams: Very little. The Rams clinched a playoff berth last week. They can still be the 6- or 7-seed, but don't appear to be prioritizing that. Notably, falling to the 7-seed would mean the Rams would return to San Francisco with a playoff win.
• 49ers: Nothing. San Francisco clinched the NFC 1-seed and appears to be resting guys.

• It's Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold at QB in a game that means little for either team. Both Matt Stafford and Brock Purdy will rest up for the playoffs.
• They're not the only names resting. San Francisco has already confirmed that Christian McCaffrey, Arik Armstead, and Tashaun Gipson will be out, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see names like Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams see little to no action after fighting injuries all season. The Rams will rest Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald, while names like Ernest Jones, Tyler Higbee, Joe Noteboom, and others look limited too. This looks like a preseason game.
• The 49ers have won nine of the last 10 in the rivalry, winning by at least a touchdown in five of those and each of the last three. These matchups usually aren't close, with 15 of the last 18 by at least 13 points.

The 49ers have zero incentive here with the 1-seed locked up. The Rams actually want to win this game — specifically because of the 49ers, since a loss might drop LA to the 7-seed and send the Rams right back to San Francisco if they make it to the second round.

The Rams offense has been almost as good as the 49ers offense the back half of the season, by the numbers. Those numbers aren't super meaningful with all the key names missing, but Puka Nacua looks like he'll play and attempt to set those rookie records, and Carson Wentz might be playing for his career here.

The Rams offense has been better in the first half this season, while the 49ers defense has been worse there and worse at home. Bet the motivation angle and take the +150 moneyline in a game that might be a coin flip preseason affair anyway.

All we've heard all season is how Kyle Shanahan's system makes things easy on quarterbacks, so it's time for Sam Darnold to prove it. Darnold was good in relief for Purdy against Baltimore, and he gets a pretty juicy matchup here. The Rams defense has overachieved given its lack of talent, but the pass defense still ranks bottom quarter of the league over the past six weeks and Darnold gets a let off with no Darnold breathing down his throat.

There are no props for this game yet, but San Francisco has averaged 274.3 passing yards per game, and that number is deflated by the many big leads the team has had late, which probably won't be the case here. Purdy's line closed at 267.5 passing yards last week, so Darnold probably gets something in the 250 range. Consider the over, and think about a 300-yard game for Darnold too. Purdy had five this season plus one more at 296.

This is about the easiest pass of the season. Just nothing here, though I'm hopeful my guy Carson can save his career with a nice outing.

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Chiefs vs Chargers Odds, Picks

Sunday, Jan 7

4:25pm ET

CBS

Chiefs Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3 -110	35.5 -106o / -114u	+138

Chargers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3 -110	35.5 -106o / -114u	-164

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Chiefs: Nothing. The Chiefs clinched the AFC West and are locked into the 3-seed.
• Chargers: Nothing, though Giff Smith would probably love to notch his first NFL win as an interim coach.

• Blaine Gabbert! Easton Stick! It's an NFL game, and it really matters, we promise!!
• Narrator: It doesn't.

Both of these teams are 11-5 to the under, but let's be honest — we're not actually getting the real Chiefs or Chargers on Sunday. That means those trends aren't super meaningful, and if anything, they're probably buying us a few points on a deflated total.

The Chargers defense has been a laughingstock all season, and LA has zero pass rush so Blaine Gabbert should be able to do what most QBs have done to the Chargers all year and find plenty of room to throw. Kansas City's defense has faded over the back half of the season too. And again, we'll get plenty of backups.

Do you realize how absurd it is that Easton Stick is favored by more than a field goal against the Kansas City Chiefs? In a professional football game?

Of course, these aren't really the Chiefs. They haven't really been the Chiefs all season, and they're definitely not the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes out, likely along with Travis Kelce, Chris Jones and anyone else important for this banged-up team.

Kansas City is locked into the 3-seed. The Chargers would love to end the season on a happy note and get a win for Stick and interim coach Giff Smith.

Love you Easton Stick, but no thanks. Go get your first win as a pro, buddy.

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Bills vs Dolphins Odds, Picks

Sunday, Jan 7

8:20pm ET

NBC

Bills Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3 -104	48.5 -110o / -110u	-156

Dolphins Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3 -118	48.5 -110o / -110u	+132

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Bills: Everything, and then some. Win and Buffalo clinches the AFC East and the 2-seed, redeeming its season. Lose and the Bills drop to at least the 6- or 7-seed and possibly out altogether. The Bills will know the full scenario by Sunday night, but no matter what, Buffalo will have more at stake this weekend than any other team.
• Dolphins: A whole lot. Win and Miami clinches the AFC East and the 2-seed, which means a home game against likely the Steelers, Colts or Texans, then another home game against presumably the Chiefs. Lose and the Dolphins are still in the playoffs, but drop to the 6-seed and head directly to Kansas City, where a win would send them to Buffalo or Baltimore, possibly still both. Miami's playoff hopes aren't on the line, but its Super Bowl hopes might be.

• This feels like a great division rivalry as good as both teams have been the last couple years, but the Bills have won 10 of the last 11 matchups, with the one loss by just two points. The last three meetings have been super high scoring with 61, 65 and 68 points.
• Miami's injury report is an absolute mess, a CVS receipt of names potentially missing. Both star pass rushers, Jaelan Philips and Bradley Chubb, are already out for the season. Terron Armstead, Jaylen Waddle, Xavien Howard, Raheem Mostert and Zack Sieler have not practiced and appear to be real doubts for the weekend. Tyreek Hill, Devon Achane, Jevon Holland, David Long and three more offensive line starters are also limited and not certain to play. That's 13 of 22 starters potentially missing, if you're counting at home.
• As awesome as this game looks, there are certainly scenarios where one team calls off the dogs mid-game. Buffalo could have already clinched a playoff berth by then in some scenarios and might prefer to rest some if the game gets out of hand, especially since the Bills might be playing Miami again and wouldn't want to show their hand too much. Miami is the more likely candidate to pull the plug since the Dolphins are already locked into the playoffs and desperately in need of some rest and a week off with that huge list of injuries. Be careful about betting the full game, and be ready to pull the trigger quickly on a live bet if you see a good angle.
• Both teams rank top five by DVOA over the last six weeks, and each team is top eight running and passing on both offense and defense with one exception for each team. The Dolphins' pass defense ranks bottom 10 with a slew of injuries and got destroyed by the Ravens last week, and the Bills' run defense has slipped late in the season. That could mean a big passing game from Josh Allen much like Lamar Jackson's career game, and it could set up well for Miami's run game — but only if the Dolphins aren't missing four offensive line starters and both of their top running backs.

Miami's defense was rounding into top shape as it got healthy with Jalen Ramsey, but there are so many injuries in the secondary and pass rush now that Buffalo should be able to move the ball well. Stefon Diggs had a monster game in the first meeting with six receptions for 120 yards and three scores, and Buffalo should find some success running the ball too.

The Bills have become a power rushing team with James Cook taking on a bigger role, but Cook is not the goal-line back for this team. That's Josh Allen, and he's scored a rushing TD in five straight games and 12 of the last 14. Allen is tied for second in the NFL with 15 rushing TDs. Cook has just two scores and has only carried the ball five times from inside the seven all season. Allen has 17 of Buffalo's 39 attempts in that range, and 14 of those have come in the last 10 games after Latavius Murray got stuffed three straight times against the Giants.

Allen is personally responsible for 42 of Buffalo's 49 offensive touchdowns this season, an incredible 86% of them. He does it all for this team, now including that short-yardage role at the goal line, and no tush push or imaginary not-Gus-Edwards TDs needed. Allen just does it himself, and he's run for multiple scores in three of the last five games. Ready to ride one more escalator to end the season? Allen is +500 to score two or more Anytime TDs at FanDuel.

It's hard to make the case for a good Dolphins angle with all the injuries. Every angle you hope for depends on a key player. Miami could run the ball well, but not without the running backs or offensive line healthy. Waddle could be in line for a big game with Buffalo bottom 10 against WR2s and on deep passes, but Waddle is a real doubt and Hill is no sure thing either.

Miami's defense has been bad early in games, so there's a script where this goes sideways quickly, especially if Buffalo dominates in the trenches with all the Dolphins injuries. The best way to bet on Miami right now is probably just betting against Allen. He has 16 interceptions already this season, and he's thrown at least one in all but three games. Ramsey already has three picks since returning, so maybe he or another player can snag one of Allen's two or three big mistake throws that seem to come every game.

There's a lot we don't know about this game — who is healthy enough to play and how motivated either team will be, with all the other Week 18 games coming first.

The one thing I know is that I want to bet on Allen. He's been outstanding down the stretch and would be top three on my MVP ballot ahead of Lamar Jackson, and somehow he didn't even make the Pro Bowl even though he's basically a QB and RB combined at this point. It's probably too late to make an MVP push, but I think Allen makes a statement and gets the Bills over the line.

Let's hope he does so literally and cashes this bet with a line that's ludicrously low. Christian McCaffrey has scored a TD in 13 of 16 games this season and was as short as -700 to score a TD at some books last week. Allen has scored in one fewer game and is near even money. Gimme the TD and let's ride the escalator.

If you've tailed on Allen MVP and Bills futures, there's not much we can do to hedge the Allen +5000 MVP ticket, but that Bills +1700 division ticket leaves plenty of outs. Miami is +140 on the ML, and the Dolphins will likely be longer at some point during the game. You've got options if you want some protection.

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• Ravens +4
• Josh Allen Anytime TD -105 | 2+ TDs +500
• Falcons/Saints under 42.5
• Zamir White rushing yards overs & escalators
• Breece Hall receptions overs & escalators
• James Conner Anytime TD +110
• Titans +4
• Cowboys 1H -6.5
• Giants +5.5
• Tucker Kraft over 3.5 receptions +120
• Khalil Herbert 100+ rushing yards +375
• Sprinkle Browns ML +275

Earlier NFL Week 18 Games

Steelers vs Ravens Odds, Picks

Saturday, Jan 6

4:30pm ET

ABC/ESPN

Steelers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3 -110	34 -110o / -110u	-165

Ravens Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3 -110	34 -110o / -110u	+140

Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Steelers: Pittsburgh wants to win. The Steelers don't clinch a playoff berth with a win, and they're not eliminated with a loss, but a win plus a Bills or Jaguars loss gets the job done.
• Ravens: Nothing. Baltimore already clinched the AFC 1-seed.

• Lamar Jackson is confirmed out for the Ravens, and with the 1-seed locked up, he surely won't be the only one. Marlon Humphrey likely sits with an injury and other key starters will likely be limited or out. Pro Bowler Tyler Huntley will start at quarterback in Jackson's place.
• It looks like weather will play a significant role here, with Baltimore temperatures expected in the 30s, along with winds in the teens and a better than 50% chance of rain.
• You already know how close this division rivalry is. Just look at the last seven margins of victory: 7, 3, 2, 3, 1, 5 and 4. In fact, 14 of the past 17 matchups have finished within one score! It's pretty much always close, which means this may not be a gimme for Pittsburgh, even in a must-win spot.

Along with close games, this division rivalry is often black-and-blue featuring plenty of defense and not as much offense. Baltimore's offense won't be at its best with Jackson and potentially others out, and both defenses are then far better than either offense. Mason Rudolph has been good against bad Bengals and Seahawks defenses, but Mike Macdonald's Ravens are another animal altogether.

Huntley's presence strongly hints under, too. Huntley has started eight regular season games, which are averaging a measly 32.4 ppg. Also, five straight Huntley starts have had 30 or fewer points. There are a barrage of trends backing the under, too. A few of my favorite under trends here:

• 10+ mph winds the past three seasons: 64% to the under
• Divisional matchups Week 14 or after with outdoors conditions: 63%
• Mike Tomlin road unders: 59%, most profitable coach in our system
• Games with a total of 37 or less since November 2019: 71% to the under

I'd make the healthy Ravens over a touchdown favorite approaching double digits, so this line is a real shocker and a massive overcompensation for resting Baltimore players and Pittsburgh's must-win spot.

The Steelers only rank 22nd in DVOA over the past six weeks and around that same rank on offense or defense, running or passing, so are we sure they're this much better than the Ravens' backups? Besides, rosters are only so deep, so Baltimore will still be playing a lot of good players — and don't forget, this is the team we back in every "meaningless" preseason game too.

The Ravens always show up, and this is not a one-man team. Baltimore still has the better QB, even with Jackson out, and the Ravens have elite defense, special teams and coaching. That stuff doesn't go away from a few guys sitting. Pittsburgh is worse in the first half, where the Ravens are 13-3 ATS, so Baltimore should start strong and push the Steelers all the way.

John Harbaugh is 61% ATS as an underdog, including 71% as a division 'dog. AFC North 'dogs are 65% ATS from Week 14 forward, and Mike Tomlin is an ugly 36% as a favorite of three or more the week after covering as an underdog in one of those "Rah Rah" spots we love. And then there's one of my favorite trends in all of football: the underdog when Harbaugh and Tomlin meet is an awesome 23-5-3 ATS all time and that jumps to 18-1-3 ATS (95%) with an underdog of three or more.

Ravens all day.

This is the easiest pick of the week and the first thing I put in my betting card. Fade a mid Steelers team after back-to-back underdog wins in an inflated-line must-win spot? Back the Ravens as an underdog in a division rivalry game on the strength of the roster with that Harbaugh vs. Tomlin trend? Done and done.

Jackson is going to win MVP after voters spent the past two weeks twisting themselves into pretzels finding any reason possible not to vote for at least three more deserving candidates in Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott and Josh Allen, traditional and advanced metrics be damned. The funniest possible outcome now would be for Baltimore's coaching, defense and special teams to carry the team to yet another win, but with Huntley at QB, only for Jackson to lose again in the playoffs, just like he always does.

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Texans vs Colts Odds, Picks

Saturday, Jan 6

8:15pm ET

ABC/ESPN

Texans Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1 -110	47.5 -110o / -110u	-115

Colts Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1 -110	47.5 -110o / -110u	-105

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Texans: Everything. Win and the Texans are in and can still win the division with a Jaguars loss. Lose and they're out.
• Colts: Everything. Win and the Colts are in and can still win the division with a Jaguars loss. Lose and they're out.

• This is as close as we'll get to a true playoff game this weekend. Winner makes the playoffs, loser goes home. It's also Houston's first primetime game of the season.
• Indianapolis has dominated this rivalry in recent years with the Texans winning only two of the past 11 meetings.
• Keep a close eye on injury updates. Jonathan Greenard and Noah Brown are out for the Texans, and there's a slew of key questionable players: Laremy Tunsil, Will Anderson, Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins for Houston and Braden Smith, Ryan Kelly, Quenton Nelson and Kenny Moore for the Colts. Expect all those guys to play at least limited roles with the season on the line.

The numbers paint these teams as very even. The Colts rank 13th on offense by DVOA, the Texans are 14th. Houston ranks 17th on defense, with the Colts 18th. Indianapolis ranks second against the run while Houston has been terrible running the football, so that's the biggest mismatch, but these teams look about as even as the line suggests.

But that doesn't mean the game script will play out that way. Houston has been a slow-starting team all year, with its offense 21st by DVOA in the first quarter, around average in the two middle stanzas, then seventh in the fourth quarter. The Colts have been the opposite, with the sixth-best offense in the first quarter before fading afterward. Houston has been good late, but expect the more experienced Colts, while playing at home, to get an early lead and force the Texans to play from behind.

The metrics may paint these teams as equals, but filter out the three games when C.J. Stroud was injured and the Texans rank fifth in passing DVOA on the season. In a playoff game, you want the best guy on the field, and that's Stroud. He should stand tall and pick apart this young secondary, and he's been at his best late, so you may want to wait for a juicier number if the Colts do get that early lead.

The entire Indianapolis line is banged up and hasn't pass blocked well anyway, while the Texans defensive line has been dominant by both Pass Block and Run Stop Win Rate. Houston can win this game in the trenches, and the Texans defense has been a top-10 unit on the road and the best run defense in the league since the start of December.

It's been a roller coaster of a ride for all of us on Texans Island. Why stop believing now?

I won't have a new bet on the Texans, but you better believe I'm in on Houston. I've been on Texans Island all season, and I'm already invested with Houston to make the playoffs and win the division, and I'm hoping for big closing pushes for Will Anderson DROY — still a good look at +240 (DraftKings) if you don't have a position yet — and maybe even DeMeco Ryans for Coach of the Year.

Come on, Texans Island. Finish what you started.

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