We can smell the playoffs in the air ā one week to go. With 20 teams still in contention to win the Super Bowl ā which is tied for the most teams with one week left in the last 41 years.
In this edition we dive into every playoff scenario, angles for Week 18 games, player contract incentives, the final week for win totals, season-long statistical leaders, awards and so much more.
Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 18 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, January 7, 1 p.m. ET.
Fade The Need
How To Bet Week 18
Historically, it has been profitable to fade teams who āneedā to win at the end of the regular season.
From Stuckey: Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 100-64-4 (61.0%) against the spread (ATS).
For Week 18 this season, the following eliminated teams fit this trend:
* Panthers +5.5 vs. Bucs
* Titans +5.5 vs. Jaguars
* Cardinals +3 vs. Seahawks
* Bears +3 at Packers
In addition, teams with a win percentage between 40-60% in Week 16 or later have gone just 29-72-5 (28.7%) ATS against opponents with a 8-25% worse winning percentage, failing to cover by 3.8 PPG last 20 years.
This week, that applies to the Jaguars and Seahawks.
The Ultimate Longshot
Big Tickets
The Texans (200-1) and Colts (150-1) had the second- and third-worst odds to win the Super Bowl entering the regular season and are now playing for a spot to go to the playoffs on Saturday night.
In addition, the Buccaneers were tied for the fourth-worst Super Bowl odds of any team at 100-1 entering the season and have a shot to go to the playoffs this week in Carolina.
The Lowest of Lows
O/U History
The Jets/Patriots total is currently listed at 29.
If it closes below 30, it would be the lowest NFL over/under since 1980.
Not to mention, the Jets havenāt beaten the Patriots since 2015. Fifteen consecutive losses for New York. Since 2014, they are 1-18 SU vs. the Patriots.
Dan The Man
Cover Machine
Dan Campbell 38-24 ATS (61.3%) career. Of āā115 NFL coaches who have had at least 50 games of experience under their belt since 1990, Campbell has the best ATS win percentage.
Lions are 34-16 ATS (68%) over the last three seasons ā best mark in the NFL, profiting a $100 bettor +$1,493.
This is the best 3-yr stretch ATS for any team since the Patriots between 2016-18, going 40-17 ATS, for +$2,252.
Win Total Time
Week 18 Decider
Seven different win totals are in the balance entering Week 18:
PHI 11.5
BUF 10.5
JAC 9.5
DEN 8.5
SEA 8.5
CHI 7.5
ARI 4.5
Trouble At Night
Circling The Drain
Bills have lost seven straight night games ATS and five straight night games at home ATS.
They are the worst team ATS in night games over the last two years (-$534).
No Momentum
Dennis Allen-coached teams are just 4-16-2 ATS (20%) coming off a SU win in their last game.
Since 1990, Allen owns the worst ATS win percentage for any head coach after a SU win.
Playoff Parlays
Come To The Carnival
Week 18 means playoff scenarios, which in the betting world means correlation and parlays. Here is a running list of correlated team parlays from Brandon Anderson.
One example: Vikings Sneak Into the Playoffs After All (+3775)
Scenario: Vikings W + Packers L + Seahawks L + (either a Buccaneers or Saints L)
Familiar Failure
NFC West Issues center
Cardinals have struggled vs. NFC West recently. They are 1-13 ATS in their last 14 games in the spot. Cardinals havenāt won or covered a home game vs. NFC West since November 2022 vs the Rams.
Breaking Habits
Time Is Now
Baker Mayfield is 3-12 ATS as a favorite in his career vs. division opponents ā he has lost ten consecutive games ATS in this spot dating back to 2019 and 0-3 ATS this season with Bucs.
Show Me The Money!
All In The Details
The end of the regular season in the wagertainment world means contract incentive time. Here is a running list of the active ones entering Week 18 and the playoffs.
One example: Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. needs five receptions for a $250,000 bonus and he needs two touchdowns for another $250,000 bonus. He also needs 185 yards for a $750,000 bonus.
Every NFL Game For Week 18
Click on one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific game.
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Game-By-Game Breakdown
Steelers at Ravens | Saturday, Jan. 6
4:30pm ET | ABC/ESPN
PIT -3 | 34
| Mason Rudolph, PIT | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 7-4-1 | ATS: 9-3 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 2-0 | ATS: 2-0 | ||
| Tyler Huntley, BAL | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 3-6 | ATS: 6-3 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 | ||
Steelers
- Team status: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS.
Steelers have 19 consecutive non-losing seasons (T-NE 2001-19 w/ 19 ā DAL has record; 21, 1965-85 under Landry).
17 under Tomlin to begin coaching career (NFL record)
Clinches playoff berth with:
Win and BUF loss OR
Win and JAC loss OR
JAC loss and DEN win - As a favorite this season, Steelers are 3-3 ATS. Pittsburgh rarely covers as favorites in consecutive years. They were 4-2 ATS last year as favorites. Last b2b years above .500 ATS as favorites for Pittsburgh was in 2004-05.
- Underdogs in AFC North divisional games have been a cash cow. They are 70-49-3 ATS (58.5%) last decade, best of any division and 23-12 ATS last three seasons.
- Mike Tomlin is 19-15 SU, 17-14-3 ATS vs. John Harbaugh.
When heās favorite: 5-12-1 ATS
When heās underdog: 12-2-2 ATS - Final margin between the Steelers and Ravens since 2020: 7, 3, 2, 3, 1, 5, 4
Since the start of 2015, Steelers-Ravens have played 17 games, 14 of those 17 games had a final margin of 7 points or less. - Steelers offense last week: Mason Rudolph threw for 274 yds, no TDs or INTs. Steelers rushed for 202 yards and 3 TDs
Matt Canada in Pittsburgh: 45 games, zero games with 400 yards of offense, two games with 30 points. The Steelers played 45 consecutive games without reaching 400 yards of offense.
Eddie Faulkner comparison: Steelers are 17th in EPA/play offense since firing Canada after Week 11, they were 25th in the first 11 weeks. Two games of 400 yards or more and two games of 30+ points. - Steelers offense recentlyā¦
Steelers with Canada: 16.6 PPG ā 6-4 SU record
Pittsburgh since firing Canada: 20.2 PPG ā 3-3 SU record - Mason Rudolph SU/ATS: 7-4-1 SU and 9-3 ATS
At home: 5-1-1 SU, 6-2 ATS | On road: 2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS
Most profitable QB under Tomlin ATS - Mike Tomlin road unders. They are 82-61-1 (57.3%) as coach of the Steelers, best of any coach last 20 years. It is 57-27-1 (67.9%) last decade.
- Tomlin is 18-12-1 SU at home on short rest vs. just 7-8 SU on the road on short rest.
- Steelers return east from west coast this week. They are 11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS going from PST or MST to EST under Tomlin ā lost four in a row ATS.
- Tomlin as a road favorite havenāt had the most success. He is 31-40-2 ATS (43.7%) as a road favorite career, including 9-12-1 ATS since 2017.
- Mason Rudolph has made 12 career starts. He's had multiple TD passes six times.
Kenny Pickett has made 24 career starts. He's had multiple TD passes once. - The Steelers are 11-2 in their last 13 one-score games and 13-3 over their last 16 one-score games. Even dating back to 2021, Pittsburgh is 23-9-1 in one-score games.
- Steelers are 33-50-1 against the first half spread the past five seasons under Tomlin, making him worst coach ATS in the first half over that span, including 5-11 in 2023.
- Over the last two seasons, Steelers are 17-9 SU/ATS w/ TJ Watt, 1-6 SU w/o him (2-4-1 ATS).
- Since T.J. Wattās first game in 2017, Steelers are 69-46-2 SU, 61-54-2 ATS.
Theyāve played without him for just 11 games. Pittsburgh is 1-10 SU, 4-6-1 ATS in those games.
Which means they are 68-36-2 SU, 57-48-1 ATS with Watt. - Teams playing on the road on short rest, after playing on the road in their previous game are 40-71 SU, 50-56-5 ATS last 20 years. These teams are 10-15-1 ATS last three seasons and 24-35-5 ATS last decade.
Week 18: PIT - Over .500 SU teams with a negative average SU point differential in November or later are 150-183-14 ATS (45%) last 20 years.
Week 18: IND, PIT - Teams to see the line move 3 points or more away from them ā ex. -3 to -6 ā are 36-42-2 ATS this season ā 89-111-4 ATS (44.5%) since start of last year & 146-175-6 ATS (45.5%) since 2020
Week 18: DAL, TB, PIT, BUF, LAC - Teams to travel from PST to EST have had 1H success going 116-74-3 1H ATS (61.1%) since 2017.
Week 18: PIT - Teams playing on road on short rest, after a SU win in their previous game as an underdog are 31-72 SU (30%) last 20 years.
Week 18: PIT - Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS late in the season (Game 9 or later), are 131-156-7 ATS (45.6%) since 2015.
Week 18: IND, PIT, LV, CHI, SEA
Get the latest coverage on NFL Weather.
Ravens
- Team status: 13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS.
Over win total of 10.5. Clinched 1 seed and home field through playoffs.
Ravens are tied for best ATS record this season with Browns and Lions.
Best ATS season for Ravens since finishing 12-4 ATS in 2008. - Ravens' blown leads ā¦
This Season: Blew leads in all three losses, including two double-digit leads
Since 2022: Six losses with a double-digit lead ā T-most in NFL with Bears, Chargers and Raiders.
Since 2021 Season: Eight losses with a double-digit lead ā T-most in NFL with Bears. No other team has more than six. - Ravens have lost Mark Andrews for the foreseeable future.
Ravens are 58-34 SU when Andrews gets at least one target in a game. Baltimore is actually 10-2 SU without Andrews since he joined the team. - Ravens are 11-3-2 on the first quarter moneyline this season and they are 20-9-5 1Q ML last two seasons. Their 11 1Q ML wins is T-most in NFL this year.
- Tyler Huntley career SU, ATS: 3-6 SU, 6-3 ATS | at home: 1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS
- Harbaugh is 21 games over .500 ATS as an underdog and 1 games under .500 ATS as a favorite.
- Harbaugh is 159-109-9 1H ATS with $100 bettor up $4,165, most of any coach in NFL since 2005.
With Lamar Jackson & Joe Flacco, Harbaugh is 147-102-9 1H ATS. - Harbaugh SU, ATS without Lamar Jackson and Joe Flacco: 6-13 SU, 13-6 ATS, covering the spread by .84 ppg
- Harbaugh SU, ATS without Lamar Jackson: 112-85 SU, 101-88-8 ATS
With Lamar: 59-22 SU, 44-37 ATS
Harbaugh with and without Lamar vs. PIT:
Without Lamar: 14-16 SU, 14-13-3 ATS
With Lamar: 15-18 SU, 14-17-3 ATS
Missing Lamar against the Steelers may be the best thing for John Harbaugh and the Ravens. In games he has started against PIT, he is just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. - Ravens are 20-5 ATS as a dog since 2018 ā second-best in the NFL in that span behind the Steelers. As a favorite in that span? 37-41 ATS.
Ravens are 20-4 ATS in their last 24 games
Ravens as home underdogs: 3-3 SU, 6-0 ATS since 2018 - Harbaugh as an underdog: 55-34-3 ATS ā second-best of any coach in NFL last 20 years, behind just Mike Tomlin.
- When both teams are on short rest, the first half over is 65-46-3 (59%) in the last five years (2019), including 15-6 this season.
Week 18: PIT/BAL, HOU/IND - Fade great teams. In December or later, teams with a 70%+ win pct, 60%+ cover pct and a 10+ point scoring margin on the season are 63-86-4 ATS (42.3%) last 20 years.
Week 18: BAL - Really good teams who are listed as underdogs late in the season have struggled. Teams with a 70%+ win pct in December or later, who are listed as dogs are 50-74-3 ATS (40%) in the regular season.
Week 18: BAL - "Bet dogs in low total gamesā¦" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 191-134-9 ATS (59%) since 2018 & 105-80ā6 ATS (57%) last two years.
Week 18: BAL, NYJ, ATL, CAR, NYG, TEN, KC, CLE, DEN
Texans at Colts | Saturday, Jan. 6
8:15pm ET | ABC/ESPN
HOU -1.5 | 47.5
| CJ Stroud, HOU | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 8-6 | ATS: 7-7 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 8-6 | ATS: 7-7 | ||
| Gardner Minshew, IND | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 15-21 | ATS: 17-19 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 7-5 | ATS: 7-5 | ||
Texans
- The Texans (200-1) and Colts (150-1) had the second- and third-worst odds to win the Super Bowl entering the regular season and are now playing for a spot to go to the playoffs.
- Team status: 9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS.
Over win total of 6.5.
Clinches AFC South with win and JAC loss
Clinches playoff berth with win - Texans are up to 9 SU wins this season, that is their most in a year in the last four seasons.
2023: 9-7 SU | 2020-22: 11-38-1 SU - Texans didnāt play in primetime this season prior to this week ā they had all 16 games all starting at 1 p.m. EST entering this week. The only such team this season.
- Texans have alternated wins and losses SU over their last seven games overall.
- Last rookie head coach and QB to make it to the playoffs? Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck with Colts in 2012.
- Texans vs. good defenses this season: 4-4 ATS vs. teams allowing 21 PPG or less. 4-3 ATS vs. teams allowing more than that.
Vs defenses that allow less than 21 ppg, Texans are 4-4 SU/ATS - Texans home vs. road this season
Home: 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS
Road: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS - Texans after allowing 30+ points this season: 28+ points: 4-0 SU/ATS
Texans after allowing 17 points or less: 2-6 SU/ATS | 10 points or less: 0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS - Texans this season with CJ Stroud vs. Case Keenum
Stroud: 8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS
Keenum: 1-1 SU/ATS - CJ Stroud currently is third in yards per game at 274.6. Rookies to lead the NFL in passing yards per game in NFL History ā minimum 75 pct of team games played ā Davey OāBrien ā 120.4 in 1939 & Sammy Baugh ā 102.5 in 1937
- Stroud has made 14 starts in his NFL career. Heās 5-2 ATS as an underdog and 2-5 ATS as a favorite.
Heās excelled in the first half, going 9-5 1H ATS this season.
In the 1H, Stroud is 6-1 ATS as a dog, 3-4 ATS as a favorite
Stroud vs. AFC South: 2-2 SU/ATS - Stroud vs. Colts stats: 0-1 SU/ATS (second week of season)
Stats were crazy: 30-for-47, 384, 2 TDs, 0 INTs. He was sacked six times and fumbled twice.
Texans are 2-0 SU/ATS on road vs. AFC South this season (dogs in both) - Stroud can become 1st rookie QB to lead NFL in TD-INT ratio.
- Texans recent history vs. Colts SU, ATS
The Colts have owned the Texans recently. Since 2017, HOU is 3-10-1 SU, 4-10 ATS. - Bet āsmall, bad, road dogsā ā¦ teams to open as a dog of 7 points or less road/neutral, who won five games or less the previous year, are 359-257-10 ATS (58%) last 20 years.
Week 18: HOU, CHI, LAR, DEN
Colts
- Team status: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS.
Over win total of 6.5. Their first win total over since 2020.
Clinches AFC South with win and JAC loss
Clinches playoff berth with win - Colts had the 4th-worst Super Bowl odds of any team at 100-1 entering the season (ARI, TB, HOU, IND).
Their 3rd time at 100-1 or higher since 2000 (2023, 2017, 2012).
Not to mention, their win total of 6.5 was their lowest since 2012.
Colts are 8-7 SU this year entering Week 17. - Colts streak of 19 consecutive games with a takeaway was broken against the Falcons in Week 16. Indy now doesnāt have a takeaway in two straight games.
- Colts are 11-5 to the team total over ā T-second-most team total overs by any team this season with the Ravens (Browns have the most)..
Colts went 5-12 team total overs last season - Colts went 0-1-1 SU in their two games vs. Texans last season, prior to that, they were 14-5 SU vs. Texans between 2021 and 2013. 1-0 SU/ATS this season.
- Minshew has started seven āprimetimeā games in his career ā night game, international, non-Sunday, etc ā his teams are 3-4 SU/ATS, but 2-0 this year beating the Patriots overseas and the Steelers in Week 15.
- Minshew is 0-3 SU in his career vs. Texans
- Still Minshew time in Indy. Minshew is 9-13 SU, 9-13 ATS in ātoss upā games ā a spread of 4 points or less
Minshew is 8-15 SU, 9-14 ATS in his last 23 starts. - Minshew has found magic with Colts head coach Shane Steichen. Prior to this season, Minshew had never won three straight games. Minshew and the Colts rattled off four-straight and have won six of their last eight to find themselves second in the AFC South with a chance to win the division. Jaguars, Colts and Texans are all 9-7. A win secures a spot, a loss and they are eliminated.
- Minshew is 5-4 SU vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or less on the season.
He is 2-1 SU/ATS vs. defenses allowing more than 21 PPG this season. - Minshew has made six starts where his opponent is on short rest since 2020 and his teams are 1-6 SU, 1-6 ATS. Overall he is 3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS in this spot.
When he is on short rest as well: 1-3 SU/ATS, lost three in a row in this spot - Here is how Colts QBs stack up this season (ranks min. 50 QB plays; of 57 QBs)
Minshew: 28th EPA/play, 35th success rate, 36th comp%
Richardson: 24th EPA/play, 34th success rate, 50th comp% - Colts got Jonathan Taylor back in the mix in Week 17 against the Raiders with 21 carries.
Colts when Taylor gets 10+ carries: 25-20-1 SU
Fewer than 10 carries or doesnāt play: 8-13 SU - Minshew has faced a team above .500 SU in his career ten times, his teams are 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS.
Minshew vs. teams .500 SU or worse career: 12-13 SU/ATS - Colts are 7-5 SU playing a backup QB in Minshew this year. Between 2017-22, IND was 4-14 SU with a backup.
Colts QBs have struggled in the back up role. They are 11-19 SU (15-15 ATS) since 2017. Colts backup 2017-22: 4-14 SU, 8-10 ATS. In 2023: 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS. - When Minshewās opponent scores more than 20 points, he is now 2-18 SU after losing to the Falcons last week.
- Minshew is 9-11 SU when he throws 2+ passing TDs in a game in his career.
- Minshew as favorite vs. underdog
Favorite: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS
Underdog: 6-17 SU, 9-14 ATS - Over .500 SU teams with a negative avg SU point differential in November or later are 150-183-14 ATS (45%) last 20 years.
Week 18: IND, PIT - When both teams are on short rest, the first half over is 65-46-3 (59%) in the last five years (2019), including 15-6 this season.
Week 18: PIT/BAL, HOU/IND - In win & survive, lose & go home type of games late in the season, fade the home team.
In December or later, when two division teams play, both with a win pct of 40-60% ā the fighting zone ā the home team is 42-67-2 ATS (38.5%) last 20 years.
Week 18: IND, NO, GB, LV - Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS later in the season (Game 9 on), are 131-156-7 ATS (45.6%) since 2015.
Week 18: IND, PIT, LV, CHI, SEA
Jets at Patriots | Sunday, Jan. 7
1:00pm ET | FOX
NE -2 | 29
| Trevor Siemian, NYJ | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 14-18 | ATS: 13-18-1 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 1-1 | ATS: 0-2 | ||
| Bailey Zappe, NE | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 4-3 | ATS: 5-1-1 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 2-3 | ATS: 3-1-1 | ||
Jets
- Team status: 6-10 SU, 5-10-1 ATS
Under win total of 9.5. 13-year playoff drought, longest in the four major sports.
Jets are 38-58-2 ATS since 2018 (39.6%), worst record in the NFL - Expectations were high in the preseason
Jets were 18-1 to win the Super Bowl ā lowest odds to win it all since 2011.
Jets were +250 to win AFC East ā lowest odds since 2011 (havenāt won since 2002). - Are the Jets the biggest flop ever? The Jets were 150-1 to win it all entering last season.
They entered this year at 18-1. That big of a jump into inside 20-1 odds year-to-year has only been done three other times.
All four teams are a combined 29-36 SU, 25-37-3 ATS
Biggest SB Moves Year-to-Year to Inside 20-1 Odds Since Merger
1979 to 1980 WAS 300-1 to 8-1 (+29,200). 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS, Miss
1999 to 2000 STL 150-1 to 3-1 (+14,700). 10-7 SU, 6-10-1 ATS, L WC
1983 to 1984 NO 150-1 to 8-1 (+14,200). 7-9 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, Miss
2022 to 2023 NYJ 150-1 to 18-1 (+13,200). 6-10 SU, 5-10-1 ATS, Miss
- The Jets havenāt beaten the Patriots since 2015 ā 15 consecutive losses for New York against New England. Since 2014, they are 1-18 SU vs. the Patriots. Pats are 23-2 SU against the Jets since Oct. 2011.
Zach Wilson has thrown 7 INT vs. Patriots. That is 28% of his career INT all vs. NE.
The last Jets QB to beat the Patriots was Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2015, Geno Smith in 2013 and Mark Sanchez in 2011. - Saleh is 0-5 SU vs. Patriots. Over the last 20 years, only one Jets coach was worse vs. NE: Herm Edwards went 0-6 SU vs. Patriots in that span.
- Jets total TD update this season. They have 21 total TDs, fewest by any team through 16 games since the Chiefs in 2012 (19 TDs).
Weeks 1-15: 16 | Weeks 16-17: 5 - Jets are 58-for-220 on third downs (26.4%). That would rank as the worst Third Down Percentage over a full season for any team since 2015 Rams and the third-worst mark for any team since 2010.
- Jets are historically a struggling road team. They are 24-42-4 ATS on the road since 2015, under .500 ATS on the road in seven of the past eight years. 1-5-1 this season.
- Since 2015, Jets are 24-42-4 ATS (36.4%) on the road, worst in the NFL.
Jetsā 24 ATS road wins since 2015 are seven fewer than any team (CLE/CHI, 31)
A $100 bettor is down $1,987, failing to cover by 3.41 PPG. When the Jets opponent is above .500? 7-16-2 ATS (32%). - Jets have struggled vs. AFC East. They are 6-29 SU, 11-24 ATS vs. their own division since 2018 ā the least profitable team both SU and ATS in the NFL.
- In 17 division games, Saleh is 3-14 SU, 6-11 ATS. Jets are 3-6 SU at home and 0-8 SU on the road vs. AFC East.
- Fewest SU wins, teams with win total of 8.5 or more: Jets/Chargers with 5
- Saleh and the Jets have struggled to win against good offensive teams.
20 PPG or higher: 10-23 SU
19.9 PPG or less: 6-8 SU - Robert Saleh has coached four games on extended rest, Jets are 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 13 PPG.
Coaches 0-4 ATS or worse on extended rest last 20 years:
Bill Callahan: 0-6 ATS, Saleh 0-6-1 ATS - Jets after scoring 20+ points under Saleh: 8-14 SU, 9-12-1 ATS
- With Aaron Rodgers hurt, the Jets have started a ābackup QBā for the majority of the season. Jets have struggled mightily through the years when they are forced to go to a backup QB. They are 8-34 SU, 14-27-1 ATS over the last decade when starting a backup QB.
- Fewest snaps played by Week 1 QB starting a season since 2007
3 ā Aaron Rodgers, NYJ 2023 (6-10 SU, 5-10-1 ATS)
15 ā Tomy Brady, NE 2008 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS)
15 ā Ryan Fitzpatrick, WAS 2021 (7-10 SU, 7-9-1 ATS) - Jets have 29 fumbles as a team this season ā most in the NFL.
- "Bet dogs in low total gamesā¦" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 191-134-9 ATS (59%) since 2018 & 105-80ā6 ATS (57%) last two years.
Week 18: BAL, NYJ, ATL, CAR, NYG, TEN, KC, CLE, DEN - Teams after being listed as 14 point underdogs or higher in their previous game are 43-25 (63%) against the first half spread in the next game since 2015.
Week 18: WAS, NE
Get the latest coverage on NFL Weather.
Patriots
- Team status: 4-12 SU, 5-10-1 ATS.
Under win total of 7.5. - Patriots are 5-10-1 ATS this season, 2nd-worst record in the NFL behind Falcons
Patriots worst ATS start since 1990 (4-12 ATS).
3-13 ATS is their worst ATS finish back in 1981. - Belichick win total results in his career
15-7-2 NE | 2-3 CLE = 17-10-2
With Tom Brady: 14-3-2
Without TB: 3-7 - Patriots were +750 to win the AFC East entering the season, their longest odds to win the division since 2001 (+1200). Patriots win total was set at 7.5, their lowest since 2001 (6.5).
- The power of Tom Brady? Patriots spent 18 years with preseason odds of 20-1 or shorter to win the Super Bowl (15 of 18 below 10-1). NE has had odds of 66-1, 40-1, 40-1 & 30-1 past four years.
- The Patriots team total under is 11-5 this season ā T-third-best record to the under in the NFL with Raiders and Chiefs 12-4 to the under.
- Patriots vs. Jets under Belichick: In last 20 years, NE is 36-7 SU, 25-16-2 vs Jets
6-0 SU/ATS in last six games - Patriots as favorites since Tom Brady left: 20-12 SU, 16-15-1 ATS
As favorites vs. AFC East since Brady left: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS - Patriots are 6-16 SU, 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
- Patriots have struggled vs. the best and done well against some of the bad teams.
Since 2019, Patriots are 17-25 SU, 16-23-3 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU, third-worst ATS mark in the NFL just ahead of the Bears and Cowboys.
Since 2019, they are 19-10 SU, 16-13 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU, including 10-10 ATS since 2020.
In that same span, they are 11-23-2 ATS vs. teams who made playoffs previous season, second-worst mark in the NFL (CHI). When the Patriots face a team who didnāt make the playoffs, they are 26-21-1 ATS in that span. - Between 2016-22, Patriots were 34-20 ATS vs. teams .500 SU or worse (third-best in NFL), they are 2-6 ATS this season. Only win against 1-1 Jets in Week 3 and Broncos week 16.
- Since 2021, Patriots are 9-15 SU at home. Between 2000 and 2020, NE was 151-37 SU (80.3%) at home.
- Since Brady left, Belichick & NE are 29-38 SU, 29-36-2 ATS since 2020.
Belichick SU career: 249-75 SU with Brady | 47-57 SU without Brady
Belichick SU with Browns: 37-45 SU
Belichick is 84-102 SU without Brady in his career - Since 2021, Belichick is 6-21 SU as an underdog (16-8 SU as a favorite). Between 2003-15, he was 25-22 SU as an underdog.
- Belichick ATS last 20 years by over/under
Under 40: 38-15-2 ATS (71.7%)
Under 42: 58-32-3 ATS (64.4%)
Under 45: 99-67-6 ATS (59.6%)
45+: 110-90-5 ATS (55%) - Patriots since 2020 without Tom Brady
6-1 ATS vs. Jets
5-12 ATS vs. Bills/Dolphins - Patriots have scored 233 total points on offense this season ā fewest in the NFL. Patriots havenāt finished last in scoring since 1990.
- Since 2015, teams who were underdogs of 13 or more points are 63-41-1 1H ATS (61%) in their next game
Week 18: WAS, NE - Divisional games in December or later have had an edge to the under when played in the early window of games (1p ET). Divisional games played at 1p ET in Dec. or later are 228-171-9 (57.1%) last 20 years.
Week 18: CLE/CIN, JAC/TEN, MIN/DET, TB/CAR, ATL/NO, NYJ/NE
Buccaneers at Panthers | Sunday, Jan. 7
1:00pm ET | FOX
TB -3.5 | 36.5
| Baker Mayfield, TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 40-47 | ATS: 39-47-1 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 8-8 | ATS: 10-6 | ||
| Bryce Young, CAR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 2-13 | ATS: 5-9-1 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 2-13 | ATS: 5-9-1 | ||
Buccaneers
- Team status: 8-8 SU, 10-6 ATS.
Over win total of 6.5. - Bucs are .500 SU on the season. Theyāve had a four-game win streak and a four-game losing streak and are now coming off a loss vs. Saints needing a win to clinch the division.
- Buccaneers were tied for the fourth-worst Super Bowl odds of any team at 100-1 entering the season and have a shot to go to the playoffs this week.
- Baker Mayfield is 26-21 ATS as an underdog and 13-26-1 ATS as a favorite
- Baker had been an under machine since start of last year, 17-9 in that span, including 14-7 in his last 21 starts.
He and the Bucs had hit four straight overs averaging 25.25 over that stretch but reverted back to the under against the Jaguars and the Saints - Bucs home vs. road SU, ATS this season:
Home: 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS
Away: 4-4 SU, 7-1 ATS - Bucs had the longest ATS road losing streak in the NFL entering the season (six games) They then covered five straight road games to begin the season before failing to cover at IND
Bucs are the best team ATS on the road this season at 7-1, +$539 for a $100 bettor
Bucs havenāt started 5-0 ATS on the road since 2012 (TB started 6-0 ATS on road)
Bucs are now 7-1 ATS on the road - Baker Mayfield is 39-47-1 ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,011 (270th of 284 QBs in the last 20 years).
- Baker has thrown 2+ TD and 0 INT six times this season .. five have come on the road. That is T-most such road games for any QB this season with Purdy and Love.
Since 1990, six such road games is the record for any QB, done by Russell Wilson (2014), Tom Brady (2016, 20), Aaron Rodgers (2020, 21) and Kirk Cousins (2021). - Bowles career as a coach: 42-59 SU, 44-52-5
As a favorite: 25-17 SU, 18-22-2 ATS
As an underdog: 17-42 SU, 26-30-3 ATS - Bowles career vs. Panthers 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS | Baker vs. Panthers: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS
- Todd Bowles canāt stop the bleeding. After a loss, heās 20-34 SU in his next game, ranked 142nd of 149 coaches last 20 years. He is 21-31-2 ATS in that spot, including 4-11-1 ATS with the Bucs.
- Baker as a favorite and underdog vs. divisional opponents
16-14 SU, 12-18 ATS total
Favorite: 9-6 SU, 3-12 ATS
Dog: 7-8 SU, 9-6 ATS - Baker is 3-12 ATS as a favorite in his career vs. division opponents ā he has lost 10 consecutive games ATS in this spot dating back to 2019 and 0-3 ATS this season with Bucs.
- Teams to see the line move 3 points or more away from them ā ex. -3 to -6 ā are 36-42-2 ATS this season ā 89-111-4 ATS (44.5%) since start of last year & 146-175-6 ATS (45.5%) since 2020
Week 18: DAL, TB, PIT, BUF, LAC
Get the latest coverage on NFL Weather.
Panthers
- Team status: 2-14 SU, 5-10-1 ATS.
Under win total of 7.5. CAR is 5.5 wins below their win total, highest mark in the NFL
CAR would be the first team since 2020 Jets and Jaguars to finish with two wins or fewer and just fourth team last six years with 2019 Bengals. - Panthers went under their win total in Week 12 and were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 13. After going over their win total last year, Carolina has still not eclipsed their win total in consecutive years since 2002-03.
- Since 2002, there have been 34 instances of a team drafting a quarterback in the top 10 who then went on to start at least eight games as a rookie, and those teams combined to go 12-19-2 (39%) toward their win-total over. Over the past 10 years, theyāve been even worse, going just 6-12-2 (33%).
- Panthers haven't run one play in which they're leading in the fourth quarter. Both wins came on the final play of the game, when they were trailing. No team since at least 1991 has gone an entire season without leading in the fourth quarter at the beginning of any play.
- Panthers have struggled with the Bucs lately going 2-5 ATS in their last seven and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Panthers covered in TB this season for first time since 2017 ā four straight SU/ATS losses prior to December 3 - Bryce vs. NFC South: 1-4 SU and 2-2-1 ATS
Since 2019 Panthers are 9-20 SU and 13-15-1 ATS in NFC South
TB: 3-6 ATS | ATL: 5-5 ATS | NO: 5-4-1 ATS
Home: 5-9 SU and 5-8-1 ATS
Road/Neutral: 4-11 SU and 8-7 ATS
CAR vs. Todd Bowles: 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS - Panthers since firing Frank Reich SU, ATS: 2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS
Before: 1-10 SU, 2-8-1 ATS - Panthers are one of two teams to be listed as underdogs in all of their games this season ā with the Cardinals.
- Panthers are 10-6 against first quarter spread this season and 19-9 1Q ATS the past three seasons.
CAR ATS by Q: 10-6 1Q | 4-12 2Q | 10-6 3Q | 9-7 4Q
Panthers 1H ATS: 6-10 ATS - Bryce Young is 2-13 SU so far this season. Since 2000, No. 1 overall QB picks are 64-133-2 SU in their first season.
- Teams that score 6 points or less the previous week are 119-99-5 ATS (55%) the next week last decade. When they are listed as an underdog, 83-58-3 ATS (59%), only 36-41-2 ATS (47%) as a favorite.
Week 18: CAR - Teams after getting shutout are 30-14-3 ATS (68%) since 2015 and 56% ATS since 1990.
Week 18: CAR - Teams after scoring 3 points or less in their previous gamed are listed as an underdog in their next game are 125-88-8 ATS (59%) last 20 years.
Week 18: TEN, CAR - Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didnāt, are 92-68-1 ATS (58%) since 2020.
Week 18: MIA, ATL, CAR, MIN, TEN - Dogs of 3 points or more, who are off a loss of 20 points or more are 329-242-13 ATS (57.6%) over the last 20 years.
Week 18: TEN, MIN, CAR, ATL - "Bet dogs in low total gamesā¦" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 191-134-9 ATS (59%) since 2018 & 105-80ā6 ATS (57%) last two years.
Week 18: BAL, NYJ, ATL, CAR, NYG, TEN, KC, CLE, DEN - Divisional games in December or later have had an edge to the under when played in the early window of games (1 p.m. ET). Divisional games played at 1 p.m. ET in Dec. or later are 228-171-9 (57.1%) last 20 years.
Week 18: CLE/CIN, JAC/TEN, MIN/DET, TB/CAR, ATL/NO, NYJ/NE - Panthers at home this season: 2-5 SU, 3-3-1 ATS
Panthers have really struggled on the road recently. Panthers are 0-9 SU, 2-7 ATS on the road this season, failing to cover the spread by 8.11 PPG and losing by 13.78 PPG.
Worst SU this season: CAR 0-9, TEN 1-7
Worst ATS this season: NYJ 1-5-1 ATS, CAR 2-7 ATS, TEN 2-6 ATS
Panthers are 9-17 ATS last three seasons, the worst mark in the NFL
Highest Team O/U ā Draft QB 1st Overall in WC Era (since 1990)
1992 Giants/Dave Brown ā 9 (Supplemental Draft) (6-10 SU)
2023 Panthers/Bryce Young ā 7.5 (2-14 SU)
2016 Rams/Jared Goff ā 7.5 (4-12 SU)
Falcons at Saints | Sunday, Jan. 7
1:00pm ET | CBS
NO -3 | 42
| Taylor Heinicke, ATL | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 13-16-1 | ATS: 14-15-1 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 1-3 | ATS: 1-3 | ||
| Derek Carr, NO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 71-88 | ATS: 73-83-3 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 8-8 | ATS: 5-10-1 | ||
Falcons
- Team status: 7-9 SU, 5-11 ATS.
Under win total of 8.5. T-worst ATS season last 20 years, havent lost 12 games ATS since 1984.
Needs TB loss at CAR and a win at NO - Atlanta is currently a 2.5-point underdog in their Week 18 matchup vs. Saints. Each of the 16 games the Falcons have played this season has had a spread of less than 4 points. Previously in the Super Bowl era, the longest such streak to start a season was eight games (2004, Washington).
- Falcons are 5-11 ATS this season, the worst record in the NFL
- The seesaw QB battle race in Atlanta is back to Taylor Heineke (ranks min. 50 QB plays; of 57 QBs)
Ridder: 39th EPA/play, 22nd success rate, 39th comp%
Heinicke: 23rd EPA/play, 30th success rate, 53rd comp% - List of QBs Falcons have faced this season:
Wins: Carr, Boyle, Stroud, Love, Mayfield, Bryce Young, Minshew
Losses: Mayfield, Young, Goff, J. Hall, Murray, Howell, Lawrence, Levis, Fields - Falcons are 6-8-2 on the first half moneyline this season
- Falcons are 7-14-4 1H ML, 7-18 1H ATS in their last 24 games.
Their 11-22 1H ATS last two seasons is the worst in NFL
After starting the season 0-6 1H ATS and 1-8 1H ATS, Falcons are 5-2 1H ATS in their last 7 games. - Taylor Heinicke is 6-3-1 SU as a favorite and 7-13 SU as an underdog. Profitable on the ML in both spots.
- Falcons have struggled ATS recently.
They are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games overall dating back to last season.
4-11 ATS last 15 games. - Arthur Smith teams tend to fade late.
Sept-Oct: 11-12 ATS
Nov. on: 9-17-1 ATS
Smith is 6-6 ATS in first four games of the season ā his teams are 14-23-1 ATS in Game 5 forward. - Arthur Smith in December or later: 6-10 SU, 5-10-1 ATS
- Arthur Smith vs. NFC South SU, ATS: 7-10 SU, 9-8 ATS
Career vs Saints: 2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS | In New Orleans: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS - Falcons are 13-14 ATS after a SU loss under Arthur Smith. An average team. After a win, not so much.
Falcons are 5-15 SU, 5-14-1 ATS after a SU win under Smith ā including 1-6 ATS this season, which ranks 139th of 144 coaches last 20 years and ranks dead last of 50 coaches since he was hired in 2021. - Falcons continue their journey have playing zero games this season with a positive rest differential vs. their opponent.
Played on road before game in London (Week 3, 4) ā they lost at Lions.
Seven of last 11 games on the road ā they are 4-5 SU in this stretch.
Three of last four games are on the road ā they are 1-2 SU in this stretch. - Falcons are off a big loss against the Bears. Dogs of 3 points or more, who are off a loss of 20 points or more are 329-242-13 ATS (57.6%) over the last 20 years.
Week 18: TEN, MIN, CAR, ATL - Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didnāt, are 92-68-1 ATS (58%) since 2020.
Week 18: MIA, ATL, CAR, MIN, TEN - Off Chicago. Teams coming off a road game in Soldier Field are 98-61-2 ATS (62%) in their next game in the last 20 years, most profitable previous road city in the NFL. $1,200 more on a $100 bet than second city, Jacksonville.
Week 18: ATL - "Bet dogs in low total gamesā¦" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 191-134-9 ATS (59%) since 2018 & 105-80ā6 ATS (57%) last two years.
Week 18: BAL, NYJ, ATL, CAR, NYG, TEN, KC, CLE, DEN - Divisional games in December or later have had an edge to the under when played in the early window of games (1 p.m. ET). Divisional games played at 1 p.m. ET in Dec. or later are 228-171-9 (57.1%) last 20 years.
Week 18: CLE/CIN, JAC/TEN, MIN/DET, TB/CAR, ATL/NO, NYJ/NE
Saints
- Team status: 8-8 SU, 5-10-1 ATS.
Under win total of 9.5. T-second worst record ATS this season. An ATS loss vs. Falcons would give the Saints their worst season since finishing 4-11-1 ATS in 1999.
Needs TB loss at CAR and a win vs. ATL to win NFC South
Needs win, SEA loss and GB loss to clinch Wild Card berth - Saints have officially gone under their preseason win total of 9.5
Dennis Allen-coached teams are 0-5 toward the over on their preseason win total.
Entering the season, Saints didnāt face a team with under 20-1 Super Bowl odds and still went under. Saints went under their win total last year for first time since 2015. - The Saints rollercoaster took a down turn last week in the loss and fail cover vs. Rams.
Saints ATS recently: 5-11-1 in last 17 dating back to 2022
Saints are 2-5 ATS at home this season. Only Washington has 0 ATS wins at home this season (0-6-1 ATS) - Road Warriors. Here are the Saints ML record over the past few seasons, home vs. road.
Last 3: Home: 10-12 SU | Road: 13-13 SU
Last 5: Home: 23-18 SU | Road: 26-16 SU - Saints are 6-15 ATS at home since 2021, second-worst record in the NFL (Falcons)
- Allen-coached teams are just 15-21-1 ATS vs. teams who are under .500 SU on the season and just 5-13-1 ATS vs. teams who are over .500 SU on the season.
Allen is under .500 ATS vs. teams who are over .500 SU in all five of his seasons as a head coach (1-4 ATS this season). - Allen-coached teams are just 4-16-2 ATS coming off a SU win in their last game.
Last 20 years, heās ranked 142nd of 144 coaches ATS coming off a win.
Off a SU loss, Dennis Allen is: 15-27 SU, 20-22 ATS - Allen is 7-14-2 ATS vs. divisional opponents in his career.
4-7-1 ATS with Raiders
3-7-1 ATS with Saints
His 7-14-2 ATS mark is 142nd of 147 coaches in profitability last 20 years and among 119 coaches to coach 20+ divisional games since 1990, Allenās 33.3% ATS win pct is second-worst ahead of only Joe Philbin. - Carr vs. divisional opponents.
Saints: 3-2 SU, 2-2-1 ATS
Raiders: 23-29 SU, 28-24 ATS - Carr vs. Falcons with Saints: 0-1 SU/ATS
- Carr was 18-29-1 ATS as a favorite with the Raiders, with a $100 bettor down $1,182. Now with the Saints he is 2-8-1 ATS as a favorite.
Carr hasnāt had a year above .500 ATS as a favorite since 2016 - Superdome isnāt scary anymore. Saints are 10-12 SU at home last three seasons ā only four teams have fewer SU wins than that (NE, HOU, ARI, CHI).
- Carr is 9-26-2 ATS when favored by 3 points or more, including 2-14-1 ATS in his last 17 games in this spot. Since 2021, heās 2-11-1 ATS in this spot.
- After 12 straight unders, the Saints are 5-5 to the under in their last 10 games.
They are 11-5 to the under this year, 10-5 last 15, 16-5 in last 21 and 32-18 since start of 2021 season. - Allen is 26-41-2 ATS in his career as a coach.
Allenās 26-41-2 ATS mark is 3rd-worst for any coach last 20 years:
- Jon Gruden, 149. Mike Shanahan, 148. Dennis Allen
- In games where Carr is a favorite or a small underdog, his teams have struggled.
As favorite or underdog of 3 points or less: 39-52-3 ATS
Dog of more than 3 points: 34-31 ATS - Derek Carr has a new HC-OC-QB coach regime now for the 5th time in his career this year, and is still struggling to cover the spread. 26-34-2 ATS in those previous 4 seasons and 5-10-1 ATS in 2023 with Saints.
15: 8-8 ATS, 17: 5-8-2 ATS, 18: 6-10 ATS, 22: 7-8 ATS, 23: 5-10-1 ATS - Saints are listed as a favorite against the Falcons this week, a bad spot for Derek Carr.
Favorite: 20-37-2 ATS (worst of all QBs last 20 years)
Underdog: 53-46-1 ATS - Carr is 23-37-2 ATS on the road/neutral since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span (123rd of 123 QBs). Heās 24-25-1 ATS at home in that span.
- Carr covers vs. good defenses and tends to lose ATS vs. bad defenses. Based on how many PPG opposing defenses give up against Carr:
Fewer than 21 PPG: 32-21 ATS
21 PPG or more: 35-58-3 ATS
Of the 262 QBs in Bet Labs database over the last 20 years, Carr is the least profitable ATS in this spot. - In win & survive, lose & go home type of games late in the season, fade the home team.
In Dec or later, when two division teams play, both with a win pct of 40-60% ā the fighting zone ā the home team is 42-67-2 ATS (38.5%) last 20 years.
Week 18: IND, NO, GB, LV - Fade teams in Weeks 17 and 18 who need to win to either get into the playoffs or improve seeding. Teams with win pct of 40% to 69%, facing a team with a worse win pct, are 68-100-5 ATS (40.5%) last 20 years
Week 18: DEN, GB, CLE, KC, JAC, SEA, DET, NO
Vikings at Lions | Sunday, Jan. 7
1:00pm ET | FOX
DET -4 | 46.5
| Nick Mullens, MIN | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 5-14 | ATS: 6-12-1 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 0-2 | ATS: 0-1-1 | ||
| Jared Goff, DET | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 67-53-1 | ATS: 68-51-2 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 11-5 | ATS: 11-5 | ||
Vikings
- Team status: 7-9 SU, 7-7-2 ATS.
Under win total of 8.5.
MIN can clinch a playoff berth with win, GB loss, SEA loss and TB loss OR win, GB loss, SEA loss and NO loss. - Nick Mullens career SU/ATS: 5-14 SU, 6-12-1 ATS
On road: 2-5 SU, 2-4-1 ATS | as underdog: 4-9 SU, 5-7-1 ATS - Josh Dobbs career SU/ATS: 3-11 SU, 7-6-1 ATS
On road: 1-6 SU, 3-3-1 ATS | as underdog: 2-10 SU, 7-5 ATS - Jaren Hall career: 1-1 SU/ATS
- Vikings are 12-3-1 to the first quarter under this season ā T-best under record in NFL with Jaguars.
- Kirk Cousins last played for the Vikings in Week 8. Since, Vikings offense is 24th in EPA/play and even 27th in rush EPA/play, impacting the ground game.
- With Kirk out, Minnesota will continue to go to a back up QB.
Vikings will start their fourth QBs this season ā Cousins, Dobbs, Hall, Mullens ā their most in a season in franchise history.
Since 2015, only four backup QBs have started for Minnesota entering this week. Now a 5th: Nick Mullens, Josh Dobbs, Jaren Hall, Sean Mannion and Case Keenum. They are 16-12 SU, 15-10-3 ATS in 28 games filling in for the Vikings. - Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didnāt, are 92-68-1 ATS (58%) since 2020.
Week 18: MIA, ATL, CAR, MIN, TEN - Dogs of 3 points or more, who are off a loss of 20 points or more are 329-242-13 ATS (57.6%) over the last 20 years.
Week 18: TEN, MIN, CAR, ATL - Teams off a divisional game where they scored 10 points or less are 163-123-5 (57%) against the first half spread since 2011.
Week 18: LAC, TEN, MIN - Divisional games in December or later have had an edge to the under when played in the early window of games (1 p.m. ET). Divisional games played at 1 p.m. ET in Dec. or later are 228-171-9 (57.1%) last 20 years.
Week 18: CLE/CIN, JAC/TEN, MIN/DET, TB/CAR, ATL/NO, NYJ/NE - Kevin OāConnell as a favorite and an underdog
Favorite: 16-5 SU, 9-10-2 ATS
Underdog: 4-9 SU, 5-7-1 ATS - OāConnell vs. NFC North SU, ATS: 6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS
OāConnell vs. Lions: 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS
OāConnell has faced the Lions twice since taking over at the start of the season in 2022 and is 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS. This is the second meeting in 2023 with the last taking place just two weeks ago in MIN.
He has covered three of his last six games in the division, three of which were against CHI.
Dog/Favorite vs. NFC North: OāConnell and the Vikings play their role in the NFC North, they are 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS as favorites and 0-3 SU/ATS as underdogs. - OāConnell off win/loss
Off a loss: 4-7-1 ATS
Off a win: 9-9-2 ATS - The Vikings are 10-6 to the under this season. Between 2020-22, Minnesota was 34-16-1 to the over in that span.
- Vikings coach Kevin OāConnell by time of day
1P ET or earlier: 16-5 SU, 10-9-2 ATS
2P ET or later: 4-9 SU, 4-8-1 ATS - Vikings have 26 fumbles as a team ā fourth-most in the NFL
Joshua Dobbs has 14 fumbles now, most in the NFL. Next highest is 13 (Tua).
14 would've led the league in two of the last three seasons. - Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games last year during the regular season. Minnesota ended their streak of seven straight one-score games in week 17 and theyāve played 14 one-score games in 2023 (7-7 SU) in 16 total games.
Worst point differential among 13+ win teams since the merger (incl. postseason)
2022 Vikings -10 2023: 8.5 win total (7-9 SU, 7-7-2 ATS)
1979 Oilers +26 1980: 11-6 SU (WC), 6-9-2 ATS
1990 Raiders +31 1991: 9-8 SU (WC), 8-9 ATS (U10 win total)
1993 Chiefs +31 1994: 9-8 SU (WC), 9-8 ATS (U9.5 win total)
Lions
- Team status: 11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS
Over win total of 9.5. Detroit hasnāt won ten games since 2014 and theyāve now gone over their win total in consecutive seasons for first time since 2016-17.
The last time Detroit went over their win total by 2+ games in back-to-back seasons was 1999-00. They can do that again with a win in Week 18. - Lions are 23-10 ATS since the start of last season, most profitable team ATS in the NFL ($1,096).
Lions have 10 ATS wins in three straight seasons (11-5 ATS this year). Prior to this stretch, Lions had one 10-win ATS season (2010) since 1995.
Lions are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall. - Lions are 34-16 ATS (68%) over the last three seasons ā best mark in the NFL, profiting a $100 bettor +$1,493.
This is the best 3-yr stretch ATS for any team since the Patriots between 2016-18, going 40-17 ATS, for +$2,252 - Could be 2nd of three games DET-MIN play each other in 21 days if they meet in playoffs.
- Goff is 16-8 ATS off a SU loss with the Lions, including 12-4 ATS when that game is played at home.
When Goffās teams are above .500 SU & coming off a loss, heās 13-6-1 ATS
Best QBs in that spot last 20 years: Brady, Rodgers, Luck, Goff - Lions have covered seven straight games off a SU loss and are 13-5 ATS off a loss in their last 18 games in that spot.
- Goff and Campbell after facing NFC North opponent: 8-7 SU, 11-4 ATS
- Dan Campbell 38-24 ATS (61.3%) career. Of āā115 NFL coaches that have had 50+ games experience under their belt since 1990, Dan Campbell has the best ATS win pct of all of them
- Goff broke a 14-game streak of completing at least 60% of his passes in Week 13 against the Bears. After completing just 55% of his passes against the Cowboys, he now has two games of sub-60% passing in his last 4 starts.
- Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor.
Indoor: 34-16 ATS (24-8 ATS last three seasons)
Outdoor: 34-35-2 ATS (25-20-1 ATS in Nov or earlier | 9-15-1 ATS in Dec/Jan) - Goff is 23-9-1 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, best mark of any QB in the NFL.
- Goff is most profitable QB ATS over last five years (50-28-1 ATS, +$1,827).
- In Goffās career, he is 25-16-1 ATS vs. division opponents ā 10th of 254 QBs last 20 years.
With the Lions, heās 10-7 SU, 12-5 ATS vs. NFC North
Most profitable QBs ATS in Division vs. NFC North last 20 years
- Rodgers, 2. Goff, 3. Brad Johnson
- Goff career vs Vikings w/ Lions: 3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS | on road in Minnesota: 1-2 SU, 3-0 ATS
- Goff on extended rest (8+ days): 17-11-2 ATS (not including Week 1)
Goff at home on extended rest with Lions: 5-1 SU/ATS, covering by 10.5 PPG
Goff on road on extended rest with Lions: 4-1-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, not covering by 1.08 points - Goff is 21-10 ATS at home since 2020, most profitable QB in the NFL ($943)
Goff on the road since 2020: 19-13 ATS - Goff went 383 pass attempts without an interception before throwing one in Week 2 ā the third-longest streak in NFL history behind Aaron Rodgers (402) and Tom Brady (399).
In 2023, he is +1.88 units betting his yes INT prop.
If you bet on Goff to throw an INT in every game last season, you would have been down 7.3U (most of any QB). - Fade teams in Weeks 17 and 18 who need to win to either get into the playoffs or improve seeding. Teams with win pct of 40% to 69%, facing a team with a worse win pct, are 68-100-5 ATS (40.5%) last 20 years
Week 18: DEN, GB, CLE, KC, JAC, SEA, DET, NO - Lions are 34-16 ATS (68%) over the last three seasons ā best mark in the NFL, profiting a $100 bettor +$1,493.
This is the best three-year stretch ATS for any team since the Patriots between 2016-18, going 40-17 ATS, for +$2,252
Browns at Bengals | Sunday, Jan. 7
1:00pm ET | CBS
CIN -7.5 | 37
| Jeff Driskel, CLE | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 1-8 | ATS: 4-4-1 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 | ||
| Jake Browning, CIN | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 3-3 | ATS: 3-2-1 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 3-3 | ATS: 3-2-1 | ||
Browns
- Team status: 11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS.
Over win total of 9.5. Clinched playoff berth.
Browns (No. 5) are now guaranteed to play on Wild Card Weekend at the AFC South champion (No. 4 seed). Browns will play at Jaguars, Texans, or Colts. Browns beat all three in the regular season.
Browns havenāt won 12 games in a season since 1986 (only time since 1950)
Browns best ATS finish since going 12-4 ATS in 2007 - The Browns have never seen the type of success this season with the same type of expectations. The 2023 Browns have their most SU wins in a season with a win total of 9 or more since moving to Cleveland in 1999 (11 this year, prev high was 8 in 2021) and their most wins in a season with 40-1 preseason Super Bowl odds or shorter (9 was their record in 2002).
- Flacco has five straight games with 2+ TDs
(Longest streak for a Browns QB since weeks 7-11 in 2018) - Flacco has four straight 300 yard passing games
(first Browns QB to do so in the post ā99 era) - Since 1999, the Browns longest winning streak is four games. It has happened four times ā three of which have happened under Kevin Stefanski.
- Browns are first team in NFL history to win 10+ games in a season with four different QBs each earning a win
Browns are about to become the first NFL team in over 35 years to start five QBs in a single season. - Browns are 12-4 to the team total over ā the most team total overs by any team this season.
Browns are 21-11-1 to their team total over the last two seasons - Joe Flacco now has 13 passing TDs this season in 20 quarters.
Josh Dobbs has 13 pass TD in 13 games.
Bryce Young has 11 pass TD in 15 games.
Desmond Ridder has 10 pass TD in 14 games. - Flaccoās last four games: 1,362 pass yds, 11 TD, 4-0 SU
How good of a run has Flacco been on? Since 2020, here are QBs to have 1,362+ pass yds, 11+ TD and be 4-0 SU in a four-game span: Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Brady. - With Deshaun Watson now gone for the season with shoulder surgery, another week of a backup QB in Cleveland.
Browns will start a backup QB for the 62nd time in the last decade this week. They are 23-38 SU, 30-30-1 ATS in those games.
Browns have actually done a good job in these games lately going 8-7 SU and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games with a backup.
Under Stefanski, Browns are 12-12 SU, 14-9-1 ATS with a backup QB. - Here is how Browns QBs stack up this season (ranks min. 50 QB plays; of 57 QBs)
Watson: 34th EPA/play, 40th success rate, 47th comp%
Flacco: 33rd EPA/play, 32nd success rate, 48th comp%
DTR: 52nd EPA/play, 49th success rate, 54th comp%
Walker: 53rd EPA/play, 52nd success rate, 57th comp% - Browns QBs SU, ATS this season
Watson: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS
Flacco: 4-1 SU/ATS
Walker: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS
DTR: 1-2 SU/ATS - Stefanski with Browns
Favorite: 27-10 SU, 17-20 ATS
Dog: 10-20 SU, 16-13-1 ATS - Browns are 14-13-1 ATS after a loss under Stefanski.
Browns are 15-20 SU, 16-19 ATS after a SU win under Stefanski
Browns are 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games after a SU win. - Browns are 12-11 SU, 8-15 ATS vs. AFC North under Kevin Stefanski. Of 146 head coaches last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is 140th.
Stefanski is 25-18-1 ATS against non-AFC North teams. - Stefanski career vs. Bengals: 6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS | vs. Zac Taylor: Same
- Kevin Stefanski has done a great job at avoiding the big upsetā¦
As coach of the Browns, he is 10-0 SU as a favorite of 7 points or more ā the most wins without a loss by any head coach since 1990 - Flacco in his career SU/ATSā¦
Home: 66-29 SU, 46-47-2 | Road/Neutral: 47-58 SU, 54-45-6 ATS - Flacco in road games recently:
Since 2019, Flacco is 2-7 SU, 5-4 on the road
Flacco at home in Cleveland: 12-2 SU, 11-2-1 ATS - Underdogs in AFC North divisional games have been a cash cow. They are 70-49-3 ATS (59%) last decade, best of any division and 23-12 ATS last three seasons.
- "Bet dogs in low total gamesā¦" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 191-134-9 ATS (59%) since 2018 & 105-80ā6 ATS (57%) last two years.
Week 18: BAL, NYJ, ATL, CAR, NYG, TEN, KC, CLE, DEN - Fade teams in Weeks 17 and 18 who need to win to either get into the playoffs or improve seeding. Teams with win pct of 40% to 69%, facing a team with a worse win pct, are 68-100-5 ATS (40.5%) last 20 years
Week 18: DEN, GB, CLE, KC, JAC, SEA, DET, NO - Divisional games in December or later have had an edge to the under when played in the early window of games (1 p.m. ET). Divisional games played at 1 p.m. ET in Dec. or later are 228-171-9 (57.1%) last 20 years.
Week 18: CLE/CIN, JAC/TEN, MIN/DET, TB/CAR, ATL/NO, NYJ/NE
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Bengals
- Team status: 8-8 SU, 6-8-2 ATS.
Under win total of 11.5. CIN is 1 of 2 teams with double-digit win total to be under their win total already (KC). - Entering the season, this Cincinnati season had more expectations on it than most.
Bengals had a win total of 11.5 in the preseason. Their first double-digit win total since 1989 (ends 2nd-longest drought w/o double-digit win total in NFL ā DET). - CIN strange season: 1-3 start ā won four straight ā lost three straight ā win three straight ā lost two straight.
- Jake Browning gets the start again for the Bengals with Joe Burrow out for the season.
During Burrowās tenure, Bengals have went to a backup QB in starts with Ryan Finley and Brandon Allen and now Jake Browning. Theyāve gone 5-8 SU, 6-6-1 ATS. Burrow is 36-22-1 ATS in his career.
Since he was drafted, Burrow is the second most profitable QB ATS in the NFL behind only Goff
Browning has thrown 6 TD and 5 INT in his last four starts and taken 13 sacks in his last three starts. - Zac Taylor with and without Joe Burrow
With: 34-24-1 SU, 36-22-1 ATS
Without: 7-22 SU, 12-16-1 ATS - Taylor career vs. Browns: 2-7 SU, 5-4 ATS
Burrow is 1-5 SU vs. Browns ā heās 33-19-1 SU vs. all other teams
Taylor vs. Browns without Burrow: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS
Taylor vs. AFC North without Burrow: 2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS - Bengals had a league-low 49 points through four games ā one out of 64 teams to score under 50 points in first four games have made the playoffs since 1990 (1992 Chargers)
- Bengals were the seventh team since 2002 to open season with two straight division losses.
All seven teams missed the playoffs: 2023 CIN, 2020 DET & MIA, 2019 WAS, 2017 CLE, 2013 MIN, 2003 SD
Jaguars at Titans | Sunday, Jan. 7
1:00pm ET | CBS
JAC -4 | 42.5
| TBD | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 | ||
| Ryan Tannehill, TEN | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 82-73 | ATS: 75-75-5 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 2-5 | ATS: 3-3-1 | ||
Jaguars
- Team status: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS.
Jaguars win total of 9.5 is in the balance this week, they go over with a win and under with a loss. With a win, Jacksonville would go over their win total in consecutive years for the first time since 2004-05. JAC is 13-4 to their win total under over the last 17 years since that streak.
Had win total of 9.5, their highest win total since 10 in 2008 (won 5 games). - Jaguars home/road splits this season:
Home: 3-5 SU/ ATS (8-9 ATS last two years)
Away/Neutral: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS (11-7 ATS last two years) - Jaguars broke the streak last week, shutting out the Panthers.
Jaguars had lost four consecutive games SU after starting 8-3 SU on the season.
Jags are third team last 20 years to lost four in a row and still be .500 SU or better this late into the season
2022 MIA ā L in WC
2021 BAL ā L in WC - Jaguars hot start vs. bad recent stretch compared.
Jaguars started 8-3 ATS, 1-4 ATS since.
Jaguars offense was 19th in EPA/play weeks 1-12 and 19th since Week 13. No change from efficiency POV. - Jaguars have 28 fumbles as a team this season ā 2nd-most in the NFL ahead of only Jets (29).
- Jaguars recent road/neutral success.
6-2 SU/ATS this season and 9-3 SU, 10-2 ATS in last 12 dating back to December of 2022 - Lawrence is 11-16 SU, 14-13 ATS as road/neutral in his career including ATS wins in 10 of last 12 games
- Lawrence by opponent in the AFC South. Heās only under .500 SU vs. Texans.
HOU: 2-4 SU/ATS
TEN: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS
IND: 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS
Texans are Lawrenceās least profitable opponent ATS in his career - Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite.
Underdog: 32-26 ATS (6-4 ATS last 10 games)
Favorite: 30-33 ATS - Pederson ATS in his career: 62-59 ATS
Sept-Nov: 37-40 ATS
Dec on: 25-19 ATS - Lawrence is just 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS as a favorite in his NFL career. Lawrence is 8-3 SU in his last eleven starts as a favorite.
- Lawrence has been made into a different QB with Doug Pederson
w/ Pederson: 18-16 SU/ATS
w/ Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer: 3-14 SU, 5-12 ATS - Lawrence is 23-28 against 1H spread career, but this season has been a turn around for Lawrence. He is 9-6 1H ATS this season ā heās lost four straight.
- Lawrence is 19-14-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season ā the sixth-most profitable 2H ATS QB in the NFL behind Purdy, Ridder, Burrow, Walker and Smith
- Lawrence is 30-21 to the under in the last three seasons
- Lawrence has struggled vs. bad teams. He is 8-15 ATS vs. teams .500 SU or worse and under .500 ATS in the first two years of his career. 2-4 this season.
- Lawrence has struggled vs. bad teams. He is 5-12 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and under .500 ATS in this spot all three years of his career.
- Teams after facing the Panthers this season: 11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS
- Jaguars are 12-3-1 to the first quarter under this season ā T-best under record in NFL with Vikings.
- It is smart to fade bad teams off a recent win. Teams 1-4 SU in their last five games, coming off a win are 80-141-1 SU (36%) last 20 years. 1-9 SU this season and 4-18 SU last two years.
Week 18: JAC - Fade teams in Weeks 17 and 18 who need to win to either get into the playoffs or improve seeding. Teams with win pct of 40% to 69%, facing a team with a worse win pct, are 68-100-5 ATS (40.5%) last 20 years
Week 18: DEN, GB, CLE, KC, JAC, SEA, DET, NO
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Titans
- Team status: 5-11 SU, 6-9-1 ATS.
Under win total of 7.5. TEN goes under their win total in consecutive years for the first time since 2014-15. TEN had gone over four straight years between 2018-21. - Titans have now gone 35 straight games without scoring 30 points.
Longest active streak in the NFL and longest streak in franchise history
NYG streak of 43 straight games was last one broken this high in 2022. - In 6 seasons with Titans, Vrabel has never finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog (5-7-1 ATS this season).
- Vrabel is 38-29 SU in Sept, Oct & Nov. in his career (17-19 SU in Dec. on).
- How do Vrabelās Titans teams close seasons?
Games 1-15: 49-41 SU, 45-42-3 ATS
Games 16 on: 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS - Vrabel 8-6 SU, 8-5-1ATS as home dog of 3 points or more
- Vrabel as a home dog: 12-10 SU, 12-9-1 ATS
7-5 SU since 2021 - Vrabel as a dog: 26-30 SU, 30-24-2 ATS ā including 26-16-2 ATS when the spread is +3 or higher.
Home dog: 12-10 SU, 12-9-1 ATS
Road dog: 14-19 SU, 17-15-1 - Vrabel off a SU loss before facing AFC South: 6-7 SU/ATS
- Vrabel after Titans scoring fewer than 10 points: 5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS
- Vrabel is 14-12-2 ATS as an underdog off of a SU loss. Heās covered 5-4-1 in his last 10 games in this spot.
- In close spread games, Mike Vrabel has performed well.
Spread of 3 points or less: 21-20 SU, 19-19-3 ATS, including 4-4-1 ATS in that spot this season. - Against divisional opponents, Vrabel is 19-16 SU, 17-18 ATS.
Recently vs. AFC South: Since 2021, Vrabel is 8-9 SU/ATS. Dating back to last year the Titans have lost eight straight divisional games - Titans under Vrabel vs. Texans: 6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS
1-6 in last 7 ATS - Will Levis career. 3-6 SU/ATS
Home: 2-2 SU/ATS | Road: 1-4 SU/ATS
Vs. AFC South: 0-4 SU/ATS | non-AFC South opp: 3-2 SU/ATS - Levis is 1-8 SU/ATS in the second half
- Of 49 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays this season, the Titans' rookie quarterback has a comp % of 60.3%, which is 46th of those 49 QBs. Only ones worse? DTR, Heinicke, Siemian and PJ Walker.
- Tannehill is 75-75-5 ATS in his career ā 34-30-3 ATS w TEN, 41-45-2 ATS w/ MIA
Overall, Tannehill excels earlier in the season:
56-46-2 ATS Sept-Nov | 19-29-3 ATS in Dec or later - Tannehill is 32-22 against 1H spread last four yrs, third-best in the NFL behind Lamar and Goff.
In that same span, heās 23-30-1 against the 2H spread ā ranked 104th of 109 QBs.
With the Titans heās 39-27-1 1H ATS, he was 41-46-1 1H ATS with Dolphins.
Tannehill is 5-13-1 against 2H spread since the beginning of last season. - Teams after scoring 3 points or less in their previous gamed are listed as an underdog in their next game are 125-88-8 ATS (59%) last 20 years.
Week 18: TEN, CAR - Teams off a divisional game where they scored 10 points or less are 163-123-5 (57%) against the first half spread since 2011.
Week 18: LAC, TEN, MIN - Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didnāt, are 92-68-1 ATS (58%) since 2020.
Week 18: MIA, ATL, CAR, MIN, TEN - Teams who lose by 17 or more playing a team that won by 17 or more the previous week are 112-77-4 ATS (59%) the ensuing week over the last 20 years.
Week 18: TEN - Dogs of 3 points or more, who are off a loss of 20 points or more are 329-242-13 ATS (57.6%) over the last 20 years.
Week 18: TEN, MIN, CAR, ATL - "Bet dogs in low total gamesā¦" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 191-134-9 ATS (59%) since 2018 & 105-80ā6 ATS (57%) last two years.
Week 18: BAL, NYJ, ATL, CAR, NYG, TEN, KC, CLE, DEN - Divisional games in December or later have had an edge to the under when played in the early window of games (1p ET). Divisional games played at 1p ET in Dec. or later are 228-171-9 (57.1%) last 20 years.
Week 18: CLE/CIN, JAC/TEN, MIN/DET, TB/CAR, ATL/NO, NYJ/NE
Bears at Packers | Sunday, Jan. 7
4:25pm ET | CBS
GB -3 | 46
| Justin Fields, CHI | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 10-27 | ATS: 14-22-1 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 5-7 | ATS: 6-5-1 | ||
| Jordan Love, GB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 8-9 | ATS: 9-8 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 8-8 | ATS: 8-8 | ||
Bears
- Team status: 7-9 SU, 8-7-1 ATS.
Bears win total is 7.5 and need a win Sunday to go over or a loss to go under.
Chicago hasnāt gone over their win total since 2018. The under is 8-1-1 for the Bears win total last ten years. - If football games ended after three quarters, the Chicago Bears would be 10-5-1.
They have yet to win a game where they entered the third quarter tied/trailing (0-6). - Since start of last season, Bears are 10-23 SU .. 4-3 SU at night, 6-20 SU not at night.
- Fields in night games: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS | all other times: 7-22 SU, 10-18-1 ATS
- Bears are 9-7 to the over this year (T-8th best mark in NFL) and 19-14 to the over since start of last season, second best mark in the NFL. (Lions are 20-13)
- Montez Sweat arrived in Chicago for Week 9. Bears are 2nd in EPA/play defense in Week 9 on, they were 30th Weeks 1-8.
Bears had 10 sacks Weeks 1-8, fewest in NFL. They already have 19 since with one game to go.
Bears sacks in the first nine games: 10
Bears sacks in the past seven games: 19
Bears INTs in the first nine games: six
Bears INTs in the past seven games: 16 - Fields on the road: 4-14 SU, 7-11 ATS | road vs. above .500 SU teams: 2-9 SU, 5-6 ATS
- Since the 2009 season, the Bears have only been favored to beat the Packers four times in a total of 30 meetings. Favored in first game this year.
= Over the last 20 years, the Bears are a putrid 12-29-1 ATS (29.3%) against the Packers. A $100 bettor would be down $1,773. Their next closest worst opponent would be Washington, who Chicago is 1-7 ATS (-$608). - Bears are 2-10 SU in their last 12 road games and 3-12 SU in their last 15 road games. Chicagoās five SU road wins since 2021, is second fewest in the NFL only ahead of the Panthers (5)
- Over the last 20 years, Bears are 68-84-4 ATS (44.7%) after a SU win. Under Matt Eberflus, Bears are 3-6 SU/ATS after a win, failing to cover the spread by .67 PPG.
Bears are 31-48-1 ATS as a dog after a SU win last 20 years - The Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons, going a pathetic 8-20-1 ATS vs the Lions, Packers and Vikings since 2019, losing a $100 bettor $1,238 ā that is the least profitable team vs. their own division in the NFL in that span.
CHI is 22-31-1 ATS vs. other divisions since 2019 - Fields is 10-27 SU, 14-22-1 ATS in his career.
He is the 4th-worst of all QBs in ATS profit since he entered the league (98. Mac, 97. Wilson, 96. Carr, 95. Fields). - Fields 4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS vs. NFC North
Fields vs. all other divisions: 7-16 SU, 9-13-1 ATS
Bears are 22-31-1 ATS vs. non-NFC North divisions since 2019, fourth-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Panthers, Jaguars and Falcons (worst). - Fields is 16-20-1 1H ATS in his career.
Since he was drafted in 2021, he is the 14th-worst QB of 98 total. - When Bears opponents score more than 20 points vs. a Justin Fields-Bears team, they are 21-0 SU. All 10 Fields wins have come with opponents scoring 20 points or less.
- Never had 4,000 yard passer. 14 straight seasons without QB starting every game. One pro bowl QB since 1985 (trubisky, 2018)
- Chicago is 9-14-1 ATS in their last 24 games overall and they are 30-51-2 ATS over the last five seasons ā worst mark in the NFL
- Bet āsmall, bad, road dogsā ā¦ teams to open as a dog of 7 points or less road/neutral, who won five games or less the previous year, are 359-257-10 ATS (58%) last 20 years.
Week 18: HOU, CHI, LAR, DEN - Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS later in the season (Game 9 on), are 131-156-7 ATS (45.6%) since 2015.
Week 18: IND, PIT, LV, CHI, SEA
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Packers
- Team status: 8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS.
Over their win total of 7.5.
GB clinches playoff berth with win OR MIN loss and SEA loss and TB loss OR MIN loss and SEA loss and NO loss
If GB misses the playoffs, it would be tied for longest drought (two) since missing playoffs 10 straight years between 1983 and 1992. - Packers were plus money (+165) to make the playoffs in the preseason for the first time since 2009 (+100) ā they made the playoffs that season.
Packers are now -190 to make the playoffs after a huge win over the Vikings last week. - Packers were +6600 win Super Bowl in the preseason, their longest odds since being listed at 100-1 in 2006. Their win total of 7.5 was their lowest since 2007 (won 13 games).
- LaFleur is 50-37 ATS in his career as Packers coach.
- LaFleur has excelled as an underdog. He is 20-10 ATS as a ādog ā 12-5 with Rodgers and 8-5 with Jordan Love. As a favorite, LaFleur is 30-27 ATS.
- How does LaFleurās teams perform vs. bad teams?
Vs. under .500 SU: 23-13 SU, 17-19 ATS
Vs. 33% SU or less: 18-9 SU, 13-14 ATS - LaFleur is now 18-2 SU, 11-9 ATS in December games.
LaFleur is 39-28 SU in all other months. In January, LaFleur is just 5-5 SU. - Love is 4-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU and 3-6 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU
- Most Games with 2+ Pass TD and 0 INT This Season: 8 ā Love, Purdy
- Jordan Love is 3-6 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 4-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
- Fewest games favored in season for Packers since 1990
2 ā 1991 (0-2 ATS)
3 ā 1992 (2-1 ATS)
4 ā 2023 (1-3 ATS)
5 ā 2006 (2-3 ATS)
5 ā 2005 (1-3-1 ATS)
6 ā 1990 (2-4 ATS)
6 ā 2017 (4-2 ATS) - Jordan Love has been streaky has an NFL QB.
Started 4-0 ATS, 5-8 ATS since.
Love has closed as a favorite four times in his 14 start career (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS). - Love vs. NFC North: 2-2 SU/ATS | vs. CHI: 1-0 SU/ATS (first game of season)
- The Packers went 5-6 SU as favorites under LaFleur last season. They are 2-2 SU this year. Between 2019-21, Packers were 33-9 SU as a favorite under LaFleur.
- Packers are 6-2 ATS after playing the Lions under LaFleur and 20-6 ATS the game after playing an NFC North foe ā 4th-best mark of any head coach last 20 years
- Belichick, 2. Reid, 3. Harbaugh, 4. LaFleur
- Rodgers or not, LaFleur has done well at home, at 27-16 ATS, .500 ATS or better all five seasons in Green Bay.
- Packers SU, ATS at home this year: 4-3 SU/ATS
- In win & survive, lose & go home type of games late in the season, fade the home team.
In Dec or later, when two division teams play, both with a win pct of 40-60% ā the fighting zone ā the home team is 42-67-2 ATS (38.5%) last 20 years.
Week 18: IND, NO, GB, LV - Fade teams in Weeks 17 and 18 who need to win to either get into the playoffs or improve seeding. Teams with win pct of 40% to 69%, facing a team with a worse win pct, are 68-100-5 ATS (40.5%) last 20 years
Week 18: DEN, GB, CLE, KC, JAC, SEA, DET, NO - Good third down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% third down rate or higher, facing a team who is below that threshold, is 323-265-20 ATS (55%) last 20 years.
Week 18: GB, DAL, PHI, SF - Much has been made about the Packersā success without Aaron Rodgers this year. Here is a comparison to other teams after star QBs left and how they did the year after losing a quarterback on the top-10 most wins all-time list. Of 11 QBs, 10 won at least six games the next year. The one that didnāt was Colts in 2011 who went 2-14 SU, but they went 11-5 SU the following year with Andrew Luck.
Most QB Wins All-Time
1. Tom Brady -> 2020 NE, 7-9 SU
2. Brett Favre -> 2008 GB, 6-10 SU
3. Peyton Manning -> 2011 IND, 2-14 SU
4. Drew Brees -> 2021 NO, 9-8 SU
5. Ben Roethlisberger -> 2022 PIT, 9-8 SU
6. John Elway -> 1999 DEN, 6-10 SU
7. Aaron Rodgers -> 2023 GB, 8-8 SU
8. Dan Marino -> 2000 MIA, 11-5 SU
9. Philip Rivers -> 2020 SD, 7-9 SU
10. Matt Ryan -> 2022 ATL, 7-10 SU
10. Fran Tarkenton -> 1979 MIN, 7-9 SU
Seahawks at Cardinals | Sunday, Jan. 7
4:25pm ET | FOX
SEA -3 | 47.5
| Geno Smith, SEA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 29-37 | ATS: 32-31-2 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 7-7 | ATS: 6-7-1 | ||
| Kyler Murray, ARI | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 28-36-1 | ATS: 33-30-2 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 3-4 | ATS: 4-3 | ||
Seahawks
- Team status: 8-8 SU, 8-7-1 ATS.
Seahawks win total is in the balance this week. They can go over with a win and under with a loss.
Entering 2023, Seahawks have gone over their win total in four of the last five years. In Pete Carrollās 13 years as head coach, the Seahawks are 8-4-1 toward the over on their win total ā never won less than seven games
SEA can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a GB loss - Seahawks have just 8 fumbles as a team this season ā fewest in the NFL
- Pete Carroll teams usually start slow before they get goingā¦
Carroll in Weeks 1 & 2: 11-16-1 ATS
Carroll in Week 3 on: 114-95-8 ATS
Carroll in Week 16 on: 16-19 ATS - Carroll has won three of his last four against the spread vs. NFC West, and heās covered/won four straight vs. Cardinals.
- Seahawks tend to perform well for Pete Carroll after a home loss. They are 22-11-1 ATS, covering by 5.9.
Last 20 years, most profitable coaches ATS after a home loss.
1 Belichick, 2 Caroll, 3 Arians - Since 2019, Carroll is 13-18 ATS vs. NFC West, fourth-worst coach vs. his own division in that span (Nagy, Stefanski, Reich, Carroll).
He hasnāt had a 3-game ATS win streak vs. NFC West since December 2018. Streak continues after failing to cover vs 49ers
Seahawks are 3-2 ATS vs. NFC West this season. They havenāt finished above .500 ATS vs. NFC West since 2014.
Least Profitable Coaches ATS vs. Own Division at Home Since 2017:
- John Harbaugh: 6-14 ATS, 75. Carroll: 8-14 ATS, 74. Kingsbury: 3-8 ATS
- Geno has performed well off a loss. Heās 21-15 ATS. After a SU win, heās only 9-14-3 ATS.
- Pete Carroll is 57-40-3 ATS as an underdog. Carroll has been .500 ATS or better as an underdog now in eight straight years. (5-3 ATS in 2023)
Seahawks as a favorite in 2023: 6-2 SU, 3-4-1 ATS - Pete does well at home with Seahawks.
72-30 SU at home w Russ and Geno | 11-7 SU at home w all other QBs
Here is how he does on the roadā¦
55-46-1 SU on the road w Russ and Geno | 5-13 SU on the road w all other QBs - Geno Smith is 22-17-2 ATS as a dog, but only 10-14-1 ATS as a favorite.
- Geno is just 4-9 ATS career when favored by over a FG
- Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS later in the season (Game 9 on), are 131-156-7 ATS (45.6%) since 2015.
Week 18: IND, PIT, LV, CHI, SEA - Fade teams in Weeks 17 and 18 who need to win to either get into the playoffs or improve seeding. Teams with win pct of 40% to 69%, facing a team with a worse win pct, are 68-100-5 ATS (40.5%) last 20 years
Week 18: DEN, GB, CLE, KC, JAC, SEA, DET, NO
Cardinals
- Team status: 4-12 SU, 8-8 ATS.
Cardinals win total is in the balance this week. They go over their win total with a win and under with a loss.
Cardinals were the lowest win total this season at 4.5
Since 1990 (Wild Card era), ARI is 26th team with win total below 5. Over is 14-9-2. 25 previous teams went over by 0.6 wins per season.
Lowest Cardinals win total since 1992 (also 4.5) - Cardinals are 1 of 2 teams to be listed as underdogs in all of their games this season ā with the Panthers.
- Welcome back Kyler. Cardinals went the first nine games of the season without being a public side once. Five of the first seven weeks with Murray, the public had bought into Arizona and going 4-1 ATS as the public side and now 0-2 ATS when not listed as the public side.
- How does Kyler perform based on his prep/rest?
Short rest: 2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS
Normal rest: 21-18 SU, 22-15-2 ATS
Extended rest + Week 1: 7-10 ATS - Cardinals have struggled vs. NFC West recently. They are 1-13 ATS in their last 14 games in the spot. Cardinals havenāt won or covered a home game vs. NFC West since November 2022 vs the Rams.
- Cardinals after a SU win this season: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS
After a SU win with Kyler: 14-14 SU, 15-12-1 - Cardinals since 3-0 ATS start: 3-10 SU, 5-8 ATS
- Cardinals offense has been a rollercoaster this season. From Dobbs to Tune now to Kyler, lets see if they can see some consistency.
First three games: 11th offensive EPA/play, 15th off. success rate
Next six games: 31st offensive EPA/play, 30th in off. success rate
Week 10 on: 13th offensive EPA/play, 12th off. success rate - Since Kyler Murray arrived in Arizona, he is 28-36-1 SU. All other QBs are 4-14 SU.
- Cardinals defense stinks.
Pressure rate: 17.5% (31st)
QB Rating: 103 (31st)
EPA/play on D: 32nd
Opp. success rate: 32nd - Kyler Murray has had success as an underdog and on the road and struggled as a favorite and at home.
Dog: 24-15-2 ATS | Fav: 9-15 ATS
Road: 20-10-2 ATS | Home: 13-20 ATS - Kyler has had a lot of success as a road underdog: 16-6-2 ATS (+$892)
Kyler as a home dog: 4-12-1 SU, 8-9 ATS - Here is how Kyler has performed based on the strength of the opponent.
Vs. above .500 SU teams: 12-16-2 ATS
Vs. below .500 SU teams: 16-11 ATS - Dogs donāt usually win again. Teams with a win pct below 40% who won SU as an underdog in their previous game, who are listed as a dog again, are 136-165-8 ATS (45.2%) last 20 years.
Week 18: ARI - Teams traveling from a road EST game to a home MST/PST game are 55-82 ATS (40%) since 2015. Under .500 ATS each of the last five seasons.
Week 18: SF; ARI, LV - Trey McBride has emerged as the leading target for ARI QBs
Over first seven games ā 21 targets
Last nine game ā 73 targets (Two 100+ yard games over that stretch)
Lowest Win Total in 17-Game Schedule Era (Since 2021)
4 ā 2021 Texans (3 wins, 8-9 ATS)
4.5 ā 2023 Cardinals (4-12 SU, 8-8 ATS)
4.5 ā 2022 Falcons (7 wins, 9-8 ATS)
4.5 ā 2022 Texans (3 wins, 9-8 ATS)
4.5 ā 2021 Lions (4 wins, 11-6 ATS)
Longest Active Title Drought ā Four Major Sports
NFL Cardinals, 1948 (76 years)
MLB Guardians, 1949 (75 years)
NBA Kings, 1952 (72 years)
NFL Lions, 1958 (65 years)
NBA Hawks, 1959 (65 years)
Eagles at Giants | Sunday, Jan. 7
4:25pm ET | CBS
PHI -5 | 43
| Jalen Hurts, PHI | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 36-17 | ATS: 27-24-2 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 12-3 | ATS: 8-6-1 | ||
| Tyrod Taylor, NYG | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 28-29-1 | ATS: 33-21-4 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 1-3 | ATS: 3-0-1 | ||
Eagles
- Team status: 11-5 SU, 8-7-1 ATS.
Eagles win total is in the balance this week. They can go over with a win and under with a loss. With the win, Philly would go over their win total for the third straight year, something they havenāt done since 2008-10. - Eagles have already clinched a playoff berth.
How Eagles can clinch NFC East: Eagles win + Cowboys Loss - Eagles were -400 to make playoffs in preseason, third-lowest odds (KC, SF)
- Eagles had +700 to win the Super Bowl entering the season ā their lowest odds to win it all since 2005 (5-1).
- After losing to the Cardinals, the Eagles are 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS in last 5 games
- Eagles have just two wins of 10+ points this season. Fewest ever for a Super Bowl winner is three done twice (1982 Wash, 2015 Den). 10 of the last 11 SB champs have had six or more such games
Teams to win Super Bowl after having a losing streak of at least three games in the same season: 2021 LAR, 2012 BAL, 2011 NYG, 2010 NO, 2005 PIT, 2000 BAL - Boston Scott has 20 career TDs.
14 on the road, six at home
13 vs. NFC East, seven vs. non-NFCE
11 vs. Giants, nine vs. all other teams - Scott has 11 TDs in 10 career games vs. Giants, including on just 104 touches. Heās scored in nine of 10 games heās played vs. New York ā had just one carry vs. them in Week 16.
2023: +380 | 2022-23: +320, +250, +750 | 2021: +350, +310 | 2020: 6, 7 | 2019: 8, 9 - Hurts is 7-9-2 ATS vs. NFC East and 20-16 ATS vs. all other divisions
Hurts began his career 0-4 SU vs. NFC East, he is 12-2 SU since
Hurts career vs. Giants: 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS at home) - Hurts entered 2023 3-10 ATS as a road/neutral favorite. Heās now 4-2 SU and 3-2-1 ATS in 2023.
Hurts is 14-7 SU as a road/neutral favorite (or pickāem) in his career ā lost three of last seven in this spot - Eagles defense allowed 35 points last week vs. Cardinals.
Eagles are 8-6 SU under Hurts after allowing 30 points or more in their last game ā they had won 7 in a row SU, but dropped three straight in December. - When the Eagles are trailing, they can get back in the game quick.
Since December 2021, the Eagles are 8-6 SU in their last 14 games when trailing by 10 points or more at any point, including 4-2 SU this season.
All other teams are 112-568-2 SU (17%) in that spot since the start of 2021. - Impact of Lane Johnson.
Without him: 14-23 SU
With him: 95-56-1 SU - Hurts is 22-12 against the first half spread over the last two seasons. Hurts is just 3-6 1H ATS in his last 9 starts.
- Eagles are 1H moneyline has been a roller coaster dating back to last season. 9-1 to close out 2022, 6-1 to start 2023. Lost six straight and now won three straight.
Since start of last season, Eagles are 25-10-1 1H ML ā Second most 1H ML wins in NFL behind the Ravens (26) - Hurts has excelled at home, and has been less than fantastic on the road.
Home: 17-9-1 ATS (third of 96 QBs since 2020)
Road/Neutral: 10-16-1 ATS (99th of 100 QBs since 2020)
All other PHI QBs in the last 20 years are 71-82-1 ATS at home and 81-70-2 ATS road/neutral. - Hurts doesnāt love facing good offenses. Eagles are 10-12 SU vs. team scoring 24 PPG or more on the year and 23-6 SU under that mark.
- Hurts is just 8-8 SU, 6-10 ATS after a SU loss, including just 4-6 SU on road.
Hurts after a SU win: 25-10 SU, 19-14-2 ATS - Betting teams after a loss as a big favorite has been a good spot. Teams off a loss as a 7-point favorite or higher are 55.8% ATS next week last 20 years and 46-36-1 ATS (56%) since 2018.
Week 18: PHI - Good third down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% third down rate or higher, facing a team who is below that threshold, is 323-265-20 ATS (55%) last 20 years.
Week 18: GB, DAL, PHI, SF
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Giants
- Team status: 5-11 SU, 7-8-1 ATS.
Under win total of 7.5. Giants went over win total last year for first time since 2016. Theyāve gone under in five of last six seasons ā since 2011, 9-2-1 to the under.
Havenāt went over win total consecutive years since 2007-08 - According to point differential, Giants are the worst team in the NFL, with a -158 this season
In 2020 and 2021, they finished 31st in scoring - A very different year for the Giants under Brian Daboll.
They went 7-0 ATS after a SU loss last season. This year, they are 5-5 ATS - The Giants are 10-6 to the under this season ā 1 of 7 teams 10-6 to the under this year, six teams are 11-5
- Giants are 44-22-2 to the under since 2020 ā by far the best mark to the under in the NFL
- Under in Giants home games is 23-8-1 since 2020 and 5-2 this season ā Chiefs 8-1, CAR 6-1
Giants have scored 86 total points in seven games at home this year. - Daboll ATS by QB as coach
Tyrod: 3-0-1 ATS | Jones: 13-11 ATS | Webb: 1-0 ATS | DeVito: 4-2 ATS - Daboll led the Giants to an impressive 11-3 ATS record as an underdog in Year 1, going 7-6 straight-up (SU) in those spots.
2023 hasnāt been as kind. Giants are 4-11 SU and 7-7-1 ATS as an underdog this season. - Daboll vs. Eagles: 0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS (failing cover by 6.25 PPG)
Daboll vs. NFC East: 7-5 ATS | on the road: 5-2 ATS - QB comparison ā min. 100 plays as QB for ranks (of 48 QBs).
Taylor: 30th EPA/play, comp% 16th, 7th avg depth per target
Jones: 44th EPA/play, comp% 10th, 40th avg depth per target
Devito: 43rd EPA/play, comp% 19th, 46th avg depth per target - Daboll career with Giants.
Home: 10-5-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 11-8 ATS
Favorite: 3-3 ATS | Underdog: 18-10-1 ATS - Daboll career SU, ATS as a home dog: 5-5-1 SU, 7-3-1 ATS
- Since 2017, Giants are 9-41 SU in games played after the 1 p.m. ET window ā least profitable team on the ML in the NFL.
Giants are 28-37-1 SU playing at 1 p.m. ET or earlier in that span - Giants QBs have been sacked 83 times this season ā the second-most by any team in NFL history behind the 1986 Eagles, who were sacked 104 times. No other team has broken 80.
- Taylor is 21-12-2 ATS as an underdog in his career and overall, he is 33-21-4 ATS in his career. In the last 20 years, Taylor is the 10th-most profitable QB ATS of 284 QBs.
- When two bad defenses play. Go under. When both teams allow 24 PPG or more, the under is 63-37 (63%) last three seasons
Week 18: NYG/PHI - "Bet dogs in low total gamesā¦" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 191-134-9 ATS (59%) since 2018 & 105-80ā6 ATS (57%) last two years.
Week 18: BAL, NYJ, ATL, CAR, NYG, TEN, KC, CLE, DEN
Cowboys at Commanders | Sunday, Jan. 7
4:25pm ET | FOX
DAL -13 | 46.5
| Dak Prescott, DAL | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 74-45 | ATS: 64-53-2 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 11-5 | ATS: 9-7 | ||
| Sam Howell, WAS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 5-12 | ATS: 7-9-1 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 4-12 | ATS: 6-9-1 | ||
Cowboys
- Team status: 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS
Over win total of 9.5. IF DAL wins at WAS, they are the No. 2 seed, DET No. 3, PHI No. 5.
IF DAL loses, DET and PHI still need to win to get the No. 2 seed.
Cowboys are over their win total three straight years for first time since going over between 1990-95. - Can the Cowboys keep it going? Last three seasonsā¦
After a loss SU: 12-3 ATS
After a win SU: 19-16 ATS - Dak Precott tends to perform well as a big favorite. Heās 36-7 SU, 30-12-1 ATS as a favorite of 6 points or more
His 30-12-1 ATS mark is second-most profitable last 20 years of 145 QBs behind just Tom Brady.
Heās 25-4 SU, 19-9-1 ATS as a 6+ point favorite at home - If you bet on Dak to throw an INT in every game last season, you would be up 8.6U (most of any QB). Second was Aaron Rodgers at +7.2U.
This season, you would be down 3.3 units betting a āyesā INT for Dak. - Ceedee Lamb is having an unreal season for the Cowboys.
Receptions 122 1st
Scrimmage Yards 1,757 first
Touchdowns 12 t-second
Receiving Yards 1,651 second
Targets 168 1st - Cowboys home vs. road this season
Home: 8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS .. covering by 12.81 PPG
Road: 3-5 SU/ATS.. Not covering by an average of 2.9 ppg - Dak Prescott has had success playing against the NFC East.
Heās 31-8 SU, 28-11 ATS.
Last 20 years, heās second-most profitable QB ATS vs. his own division. 1. Rodgers, 2. Dak, 3. Big Ben, 4. Brady - Dak on extended rest: 16-6 SU/ATS
- McCarthy on extended rest: 40-22 SU, 36-23-3 ATS (outside of Week 1s)
GB: 29-17 SU, 25-18-3 | DAL: 11-5 SU/ATS - This line initially opened at Dallas -3.5 and has ballooned to -13 and higher at some shops. It has been profitable to follow the line with Dak Prescott. His teams are 22-10 ATS when the line moves against him (ex. -5 to -7) by two points or more. When the line moves at all against Dak between the opening and closing lines, his teams are 32-22-1 ATS in his career.
- Mike McCarthy is 62-39 ATS vs. division opponents with GB/DAL (14-9 ATS w/ DAL).
Last 20 years, heās most profitable coach vs. division opp ATS (+$2,012)
Vs. Div: 52-27 ATS as favorite, 10-12 ATS as underdog - As a double-digit favorite, Dak is 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS. If Dak covers as DD favorite on Thanksgiving, he will become 3rd-best QB last 20 years as DD favorite: 1. Peyton, 2. Favre, 3. Dak
As a favorite of 6 or more vs. NFC East, Dak is 15-1 SU, 13-3 ATS. - Dak Prescott is 6-14 straight up in his career on the road vs. over .500 SU teams. Since he was drafted, that's 114th of 116 QBs in moneyline profitability.
Dak on road vs. under .500 SU teams: 17-8 SU
Dak career vs. Washington: 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS | on the road: 4-2 SU/ATS - Dak is 7-2 ATS coming off a loss last two seasons and 8-11 ATS off a SU win.
7-2 ATS mark is T-best in the NFL with Kenny Pickett. Dak is 11-3 ATS off a loss last three seasons. - Dak does well vs. bad teams. He is 36-10 SU, 31-13-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 23-26 SU, 18-31 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
The 31-13-2 ATS mark is 2nd best in the last 20 years behind just Tom Brady.
The 18-31 ATS mark is 261st of 264 QBs in the last 20 years. - Teams to see the line move 3 points or more away from them ā ex. -3 to -6 ā are 36-42-2 ATS this season ā 89-111-4 ATS (44.5%) since start of last year & 146-175-6 ATS (45.5%) since 2020
Week 18: DAL, TB, PIT, BUF, LAC - Good third down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% third down rate or higher, facing a team who is below that threshold, is 323-265-20 ATS (55%) last 20 years.
Week 18: GB, DAL, PHI, SF
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Commanders
- Team status: 4-12 SU, 6-9-1 ATS.
Under win total of 6.5. Washingtonās win total of 6.5 is the lowest for any team to clinch their win total under so far this season. - Ron Rivera has been an NFL head coach for 13 seasons (including current). His teams have finished .500 or worse in 10 of 13.
- Howell is 6-3 ATS in his career on the road. Eight of nine games have ended in one-score games.
Howell is 1-6-1 ATS at home
Best Washington QB ATS on road last 20 years: 1. Grossman 6-2 ATS, 2. T Hasselbeck 3-0 ATS, 3. Sam Howell, 4. Alex Smith - Sam Howell has thrown an interception in six straight games ā 3 TD and 10 INT in that stretch with just 1,010 pass yards.
QBs last decade with 10+ INT and 1,010 pass yds or fewer in six starts: Mike Glennon, DeShone Kizer, Sam Howell - Jacoby Brissett has played five full drives with the Commanders. All five drives ended in a touchdown.
Sam Howell is fifth in the NFL in completions this season, 12th in passing yards, 15th in pass TDs, 13th in first down completions ā all while taking the most sacks of any QB in the NFL.
Sam Howell has been sacked 61 times so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL. The NFL record for sacks taken in a season is 76, set by David Carr for the Texans in 2002, their first year in the NFL.
Most Times Sacked as QB ā In Full Season
76 ā David Carr, 2002
72 ā Randall Cunningham, 1986 (15 games)
68 ā David Carr, 2005
63 ā Jon Kitna, 2006
62 ā Steve Beuerlein, 2000
62 ā Ken OāBrien, 1985
62 ā DeShaun Watson, 2018
61 ā Sam Howell, 2023
61 ā Neil Lomax, 1985
(59 ā Bryce Young, 2023)
Most Turnovers This Season
Sam Howell ā 21
- Ron Rivera full game O/U by his game statusā¦
Home dog: 24-18-1 under
Home favorite: 31-30-2 under
Road favorite: 21-16-1 under
Road dog: 42-27 over - Ron Rivera biggest spread of his career.
+14.5, 2020 vs Ravens (L, 31-17)
+14, 2023 vs 49ers (L, 27-10)
+13.5, 2015 vs Seahawks (L, 31-17)
+13, 2023 vs Cowboys (L, 45-10) - Ron Rivera vs. Cowboys: 5-5 SU/ATS
w/ Washington: 3-4 SU/ATS
Rivera vs. Mike McCarthy career: 5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS - The dog is strong in Ron Rivera. He is 62-47-3 ATS as an underdog and 47-53-2 ATS as a favorite with Washington and Carolina.
Most profitable coaches ATS as dog last 20 years: Tomlin, Harbaugh, Payton, Carroll, Garrett, Reid, Rivera.
Rivera is 22-19-2 ATS mark as a home dog. - Ron Rivera likes the rah rah spot. 24-16-2 ATS as dog vs. own division, including 8-5-2 ATS w. Washington
His 24-16-2 ATS mark as dog in division is ninth-best of all coaches last 20 years. - Rivera has had issues covering the 1H spread. Washington is 5-11 1H ATS this season and 30-47-2 1H ATS since 2019 ā second worst coach 1H ATS in NFL behind Tomlin.
- Under in Commanders home games is 21-11-1 since 2020 ā fourth-best in the NFL
Unders for Commanders on the road: 17-16-1 since 2020 - In the last four seasons, Rivera-coached games are 38-27-2 to the under.
- Since 2021, teams are 18-35 SU, 21-31-2 ATS after facing the 49ers
21-31-2 ATS mark is third-worst and 18-35-1 SU mark is the worst in the NFL, Bills and Texans are tied for the worst - Big home dogs are on a run. Home dogs of 7 points or more:
60-39-2 ATS (61%) since 2020.
22-12-2 ATS since start of last year.
55% ATS hit rate last 20 years - Washington was a double-digit dog last week, and are a double-digit dog again. Teams in that spot are 69-42-3 ATS (62.2%) last 20 years
Week 18: WAS
When those teams didnāt cover in their previous game: 47-23-1 ATS (67%) - Teams with a win pct of 25% or less are 114-85-3 ATS (57.3%) as a home dog of 7 points or more in the last 20 years.
Week 15: ARI, NE - Since 2015, teams who were underdogs of 13 or more points are 63-41-1 1H ATS (61%) in their next game
Week 18: WAS, NE - Teams after being listed as 14 point underdogs or higher in their previous game are 43-25 (63%) against the first half spread in the next game since 2015.
Week 18: WAS, NE
Rams at 49ers | Sunday, Jan. 7
4:25pm ET | FOX
SF -4 | 40
| Carson Wentz, LAR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 46-46-1 | ATS: 44-49 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 | ||
| Sam Darnold, SF | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 21-34 | ATS: 22-32-1 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 | ||
Rams
- Team status: 9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS.
Over win total of 6.5. LAR is tied with Texans, Colts and Ravens for most wins above their win total so far this season.
In McVayās seven seasons, his teams are now 5-2 to the over on their win total
Rams are guaranteed to be the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the NFC. They will play Super Wild Card Weekend on the road at the Lions, Cowboys, or Eagles. Only way Rams would visit Philadelphia is if LA loses, falls to No. 7, and Eagles win NFC East. - McVay vs. Shanahan: 4-10 SU, 4-10 ATS (least profitable opposing coach ATS)
McVay is 1-9 SU vs. Kyle since 2019 - Rams have scored 24+ points now in six straight games ā One of three teams to do that this season with 49ers and Ravens.
This is the Ramsā longest streak since 2018. They havenāt done it in seven straight since 1999-2000. - 2023 is the first season Stafford will finish above .500 ATS in a season since 2018 ā he was 2-6-1 ATS last year, worst season since 2013. Stafford is 9-5-1 ATS this season.
- Rams are 5-11 SU and 7-7-2 ATS in their last 16 road games dating back to last season.
- Puka Nacua season update.
He has 101 rec, 1,445 rec yds, 5 TD, 14.3 Y/rec
He is now the third player to have recorded 100 rec in their first season joining 2021 Waddle and 2003 Boldin.
The record for rec yds in first season in Super Bowl era is 1,455 by Chase in 2021. - Sean McVayās teams tend to perform better early in the season vs. late.
Sept/Oct: 36-17 SU
Nov. on: 40-31 SU - McVay is 26-17-1 ATS vs. NFC West & 38-39-3 ATS vs. all other divisions
ARI: 12-2-1 ATS | SEA: 10-5 ATS (22-7-1 ATS combined)
SF: 4-10 ATS - This line opened Rams +7 on the lookahead and now lists them +3 range vs. 49ers.
McVay is one of a few coaches who usually win games when the line moves towards his team (ex. -5 to -7).
McVay is 49-19 SU and 37-28-3 ATS when the line moves towards his teams. - How has McVay performed as an underdog? 13-25 SU, but 20-16-2 ATS (26-12 in a 6-pt teaser).
- Teams going from EST to PST to play on the road have performed well recently ā going 75-53-5 ATS (58.6%) since 2016.
Week 18: LAR - Bet āsmall, bad, road dogsā ā¦ teams to open as a dog of 7 points or less road/neutral, who won five games or less the previous year, are 359-257-10 ATS (58%) last 20 years.
Week 18: HOU, CHI, LAR, DEN - Tough to play off a party city. Last five years, teams on normal rest coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 104-146-8 ATS (41.6%).
Week 18: LAR - Tough to play off a party city. Last decade, teams to play on road, coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 64-99-7 ATS (39.3%).
Week 18: LAR
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49ers
- Team status: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS.
Over win total of 10.5. SF is one of two teams with double-digit win total who are over entering Week 18, with the Ravens. SF is over their win total in consecutive years for first time since 2011-13.
49ers have clinched the NFC West. No. 1 seed & home field during the playoffs. - With the Chiefs listed as underdogs this week, the 49ers will be favored in all 17 games this season ā only team across the NFL.
- 49ers have dominated their opponents in wins.
- 49ers now have nine wins of 16 or more points this season (most this year).
- 49ers have 11 wins of 10+ points
Most 10+ point wins in season in SB era: 13, 1999 STL | 12, 1998 MIN & 2007 NE | 11, 7 different teams
- Purdy MVP movement.
Brock Purdy entered Week 16 as the odds-on favorite to win the award. He is now 25-1 and third in odds. - The 49ers have replaced the Dolphins in the yards/play race.
Highest YPP, Single Season
2000 Rams: 6.98, 2018 Chiefs: 6.84, 2023 49ers: 6.70, 2011 Saints: 6.69, 2004 Colts: 6.69, 2016 Falcons: 6.69
Dolphins at 6.51 this season. - When their stars are healthy. When Deebo and CMC are starting, 49ers are 20-3 SU, 16-7 ATS
- Purdy is 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS at home, just 9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS on road.
- In games Christian McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers are 24-5 SU, 19-10 ATS. In those 29 games, McCaffrey has 34 total TDs.
- Kyle Shanahan vs NFC West
As Favorite: 11-11-1 ATS
As Underdog: 13-7 ATS - Shanahan vs. Rams SU, ATS: 10-4 SU/ATS
- The 49ers went 7-0 SU/ATS vs. NFC West last season. This year, they are 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS vs. NFC West.
San Francisco has won 12 straight games SU vs. NFC West.
The record for SU wins vs. own division is 16 by 2012-15 IND and 1972-73 MIA.
The SF franchise record is 12 back in 1997-98 - 49ers record this season SU, ATS
Home: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
Road: 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS - Total TDs this season
Christian McCaffrey ā 21
Raheem Mosterst ā 21
Jets ā 21 - Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 0-39 when trailing by 8 or more points in the 4th quarter.
- Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 1-33 SU when trailing by more than 10 points in the second half. The only win came in Week 18 of 2021 season when they trailed Rams 17-3 and won 27-24 in OT.
- Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 4-35 SU, 2-37 ATS when trailing by 3 points or more entering the fourth quarter.
- Purdy in October or later at Iowa State and with 49ers: 25-12 SU at Iowa St and 16-5 SU with the 49ers (41-17 SU)
- Kyle Shanahan vs NFC West: 24-18-1 ATS | vs. non-divisional opp: 42-38 ATS
- Brock Purdy has 4,280 passing yards on just 444 passes this year.
He's averaging 9.9 yards per attempt, is tied for the highest for any QB, min. 100 att, since 1966 with Kurt Warner in 2000 (9.9). - Teams traveling from a road EST game to a home MST/PST game are 55-82 ATS (40%) since 2015. Under .500 ATS each of the last 5 seasons.
Week 18: SF; ARI, LV - Good third down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% 3rd down rate or higher, facing a team who is below that threshold, is 323-265-20 ATS (55%) last 20 years.
Week 18: GB, DAL, PHI, SF
Broncos at Raiders | Sunday, Jan. 7
4:25pm ET | CBS
LVR -3 | 37
| Jarrett Stidham, DEN | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 1-2 | ATS: 2-1 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 1-0 | ATS: 1-0 | ||
| Aidan O'Connell, LVR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 4-5 | ATS: 6-2-1 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 4-5 | ATS: 6-2-1 | ||
Broncos
- Team status: 8-8 SU, 6-9-1 ATS.
Broncos win total was 8.5 this season and is in the balance this week.
With a loss, Denver would go under their win total in four straight years and they would be 7-0-1 to their win total under since 2016 with a loss. - Broncos are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games after a 1-5 SU start
They have officially been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. - The under is 6-0-1 on the Broncos win total since 2016 and they are currently 8-8 SU with an 8.5 win total, so the fight is on.
- Payton, Broncos are 6-9-1 ATS this season. Paytonās worst season since finishing 6-10 ATS in 2007 and 2014, and 7-10 in 2010
Payton has gone 7 straight years w/ his team above .500 ATS (2015-21)
In 16 seasons, his teams are 13-3 above .500 ATS and 9-5-2 to the over on their win total - Sean Payton first season w/ DEN, 8-8 SU, 6-9-1 ATS. In 2006, 1st year in NO, 10-6 SU/ATS.
- Broncos are benching Russell Wilson and going to Jarrett Stidham.
Russ vs. AFC West with Broncos: 3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS
Stidham is now 1-0 SU/ATS vs. AFC West - Stidham career SU, ATS: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS
Home: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS | Road: None - Wilson with Seahawks vs. Broncos
DEN: 11-19-0 SU, 11-18-1 ATS
SU mark is sixth-worst in NFL, ATS is third-worst
SEA: 113-60-1 SU, 90-77-7 ATS - Wilsonās 11-19 SU mark has lost bettors $636 with Broncos, making him the least profitable QB on ML for Broncos last 20 years (seconnd-least is Orton, -$628)
- Broncos are 4-12 against the 3rd quarter spread this season and 11-22 3Q ATS last two seasons.
- Broncos defense is 6th in EPA/play since Week 6 (was as low as 3rd). In Weeks 1-5, they were 32nd, last in the NFL.
- Broncos defense allowed a completion pct of 73.6% through 8 games this season, that was tied for the third-highest comp. % through eight games in the Super Bowl era.
Since that point, Broncos have allowed a comp% of 60.7%, 8th-lowest mark in the NFL. - "Bet dogs in low total gamesā¦" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 191-134-9 ATS (59%) since 2018 & 105-80ā6 ATS (57%) last two years.
Week 18: BAL, NYJ, ATL, CAR, NYG, TEN, KC, CLE, DEN - Bet āsmall, bad, road dogsā ā¦ teams to open as a dog of 7 points or less road/neutral, who won five games or less the previous year, are 359-257-10 ATS (58%) last 20 years.
Week 18: HOU, CHI, LAR, DEN - Fade teams in Weeks 17 and 18 who need to win to either get into the playoffs or improve seeding. Teams with win pct of 40% to 69%, facing a team with a worse win pct, are 68-100-5 ATS (40.5%) last 20 years
Week 18: DEN, GB, CLE, KC, JAC, SEA, DET, NO - Most profitable coaches ATS last 20 yrs: 1. Belichick, 2. McCarthy, 3. Zimmer 4. Payton
Payton fell behind Zimmer after the loss to the Jets earlier this year. Bounced back in front after the five-game win streak. Fell back behind after loss to Texans. Bounced back after win over Chargers. And fell back behind after loss to Lions. Ping-Pong. One more loss to close out the season and he could fall behind John Harbaugh
Broncos Coaches ā Last Two Seasons
Payton Hackett
SU 8-8 4-11
ATS 6-9-1 6-9
Pts 343-386 232-304
Yards 4,786 4,749
Yds/play 5.0 5.1
TD 34 22
Opp yds 5,944 4,714
Opp yds/play 5.8 5.0
Opp TD 41 25
Raiders
- Team status: 7-9 SU, 9-6-1 ATS.
Over their win total of 6.5. Raiders have went over their win total in 4 of the last 5 years.
Havenāt won division in 21 seasons ā T-second longest streak in NFL (CLE 31, NYJ 21) - Raiders fade late in the season. Historically, the Raiders donāt win in November or later.
Last 20 years, theyāve been over .500 SU in this window once (2016).
In 2023, they are 4-4 SU in Nov. or later this season.
They are 6-1-1 ATS in last eight games. - The Raiders team total under is 12-4 this season ā T-best record to the under in the NFL with Chiefs.
- Aidan OāConnell is the 24th different Raiders starting QB over the last 20 years.
Only three of those 24 are profitable ATS for the Raiders: Jason Campbell, Terrelle Pryor, and OāConnell (6-2-1 ATS) - Raiders defense has been very stingy lately.
Best defenses since Week 9 in EPA/play: 1 CLE, 2 CHI, 3 LV
Since Pierce took over: 4-4 SU, 6-1-1 ATS - Josh Jacobs 2023 season vs 2022.
2023: 3.5 Y/A, 6 TD, 34 first downs, 805 yards
2022: 4.9 Y/A, 12 TD, 93 1st download, 1,653 yards - Raiders home/road since moving to Las Vegas
Raiders at home in Vegas: 16-17 SU, 18-14-1 ATS
On road/neutral: 14-20 SU, 15-19 ATS - Raiders last 3 years vs. AFC West: 9-8 SU, 10-7 ATS
At home: 5-3 SU/ATS | On road: 4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS - At 6-1-1 ATS, Antonio Pierce is already making Raiders history.
3rd LV coach since 1990 over .500 ATS: Hue Jackson and Jon Gruden
This season: Pierce: 6-1-1 ATS | McDaniels: 3-5 ATS - Raiders under McDaniels vs. Pierce
McDaniels: 3-5 SU/ATS
Pierce: 4-4 SU, 6-1-1 ATS - Pierce gets the big upset McDaniels never did:
McDaniels, with the Raiders, was a dog of 7 points or more five times and lost all five outright
Pierce has been a dog of 14, 9, and 11 points, he is 2-1 ATS and 1-2 SU. - In win & survive, lose & go home type of games late in the season, fade the home team.
In Dec or later, when two division teams play, both with a win pct of 40-60% ā the fighting zone ā the home team is 42-67-2 ATS (38.5%) last 20 years.
Week 18: IND, NO, GB, LV - Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS later in the season (game 9 on), are 131-156-7 ATS (45.6%) since 2015.
Week 18: IND, PIT, LV, CHI, SEA - Teams traveling from a road EST game to a home MST/PST game are 55-82 ATS (40%) since 2015. Under .500 ATS each of the last 5 seasons.
Week 18: SF; ARI, LV
Chiefs at Chargers | Sunday, Jan. 7
4:25pm ET | CBS
LAC -3 | 35
| Blaine Gabbert, KC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 13-35 | ATS: 20-27-1 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 | ||
| Easton Stick, LAC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 0-2 | ATS: 1-1 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 | ||
Chiefs
- Team status: 10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS.
Under win total of 11.5. KC is one of two teams with double-digit win total to be under their win total already (CIN).
Chiefs are now 9-2 to their win total over in the last 11 years.
Andy Reid win total results with KC/PHI: 9-2 over w/ KC | 9-4-1 over w/ PHI (18-6-1 overall to over) - Blaine Gabbert career SU, ATS: 13-35 SU, 20-27-1 ATS
Hasnāt started since 2018 in three games with TEN
Home: 9-17 SU, 10-16 ATS | Road: 4-18 SU, 10-11-1 ATS - Chiefs have now won the AFC West eight consecutive seasons ā longest active division streak across four major sports ā The longest run of division titles belongs to the New England Patriots with an 11-year streak from 2009 to 2019.
- Andy Reid career vs. AFC West with Chiefs: 50-15 SU, 37-27-1 ATS
Reid career vs. Chargers w/ Chiefs: 16-5 SU (most profitable opponent on ML in KC tenure), 11-9-1 ATS (Home: 7-4 SU, 3-7-1 ATS | Road: 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) - Reid career SU, ATS with Chiefs with Mahomes: 85-25 SU, 57-50-3 ATS
Without Mahomes: 54-33 SU, 47-39-1
Without Mahomes and Alex Smith: 3-3 SU/ATS - Chiefs defense in Mahomesā career (EPA/play)
2023: 6th | 2022: 15th | 2021: 23rd | 2020: 19th | 2019: 18th | 2018: 28th - With Blaine Gabbert starting for the Chiefs, their streak of games as a favorite this season comes to an end.
1 of 2 teams this season still favored in every game entering this week: KC, SF - Chiefs second half unders have been the playā¦
Second half unders are 14-2 in KC games this year
4th quarter unders are 15-1 in KC games this year - Mahomes has had 39 passes dropped so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL. He had 33 last year, seventh-most in the NFL.
- When the Chiefs defense allows more than 20 points this season, KC is 0-4 SU/ATS, against the Lions, Broncos, Eagles and Packers. KC is 10-2 SU, 8-3-1 ATS when their defense allows 20 points or less.
- Chiefs are 6-10 against the 4th quarter spread this season and 20-36 4Q ATS the last three seasons.
Their 6-10 4Q ATS record is tied with five other teams for worst in the NFL - Rashee Rice leads the Chiefs in ATTD profit this season at +8.5 units. Justin Watson led KC in ATTD profit last year (+15U).
- "Bet dogs in low total gamesā¦" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 191-134-9 ATS (59%) since 2018 & 105-80ā6 ATS (57%) last two years.
Week 18: BAL, NYJ, ATL, CAR, NYG, TEN, KC, CLE, DEN - Fade teams in Weeks 17 and 18 who need to win to either get into the playoffs or improve seeding. Teams with win pct of 40% to 69%, facing a team with a worse win pct, are 68-100-5 ATS (40.5%) last 20 years
Week 18: DEN, GB, CLE, KC, JAC, SEA, DET, NO
Get the latest coverage on NFL Weather.
Chargers
- Team status: 5-11 SU, 6-10 ATS.
Under win total of 9.5. Aside from the Panthers, Chargers are the furthest below their win total in terms of actual SU wins this year.
Chargers have gone under their win total in 5 straight years. It's the franchises longest over or under streak in Wild Card era and they are one of six teams w/ five or more straight unders since 2010.
Their 5 wins is the fewest among the 19 teams with a total of 8.5 or higher. - Chargers are 0-6 SU in games decided by 3 points or fewer this season
NFL record for such losses in a season is 7 by 1994 Oilers - The Chargers have played 34 games since the start of last season, and 23 of them have finished within seven points.
24 of the Chargers last 35 games have been decided by 7 points or less dating back to the Week 18, 2021 Raiders loss. - Chargers off a loss by 8 points or less this season: 1-5 SU/ATS
Last 3 seasons: 6-9 SU, 5-10 ATS - Chargers vs. AFC West this season SU, ATS: 1-4 SU/ATS
Home: 1-1 SU/ATS | Road: 0-3 SU/ATS - Chargers 2H ATS this season: 5-9-2
Staley 2H ATS career: 14-31-4 | LAC 2H ATS since Staley gone: 2-0 - Easton Stick gets the start for the Chargers on Sunday again. He is just the fourth different starting QB for the Chargers since 2006 ā the fewest of any NFL team in that span
- Justin Herbert is 30-33 SU career. four years as QB.
Def points rank: 23, 29, 21, 25th this year
Def yds rank: 10, 23, 20, 29th this year
LAC top-15 both on offense in points every year with Herbert entering the week of his injury in 2023. - Teams off a divisional game where they scored 10 points or less are 163-123-5 (57%) against the first half spread since 2011.
Week 18: LAC, TEN, MIN - Teams to see the line move 3 points or more away from them ā ex. -3 to -6 ā are 36-42-2 ATS this season ā 89-111-4 ATS (44.5%) since start of last year & 146-175-6 ATS (45.5%) since 2020
Week 18: DAL, TB, PIT, BUF, LAC
Bills at Dolphins | Sunday, Jan. 7
8:20pm ET | NBC
BUF -3 | 48.5
| Josh Allen, BUF | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 66-34 | ATS: 51-44-5 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 10-6 | ATS: 6-10 | ||
| Tua Tagovailoa, MIA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 32-18 | ATS: 29-20-1 | ||
2023 Record | SU: 11-5 | ATS: 10-6 | ||
Bills
- Team status: 10-6 SU, 6-10 ATS.
Bills win total is in the balance this week. They go over their win total with a win and under with a loss. Third straight year with double-digit win total (none before that since 1992).
Bills clinch AFC East with a win and they clinch a playoff berth with a PIT loss OR JAC loss - Bills have won four games in a row SU.
4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS after winning four straight
2-5 ATS on the road - Josh Allen is 16-8 SU, 11-13 ATS in night games, including 8-2 SU at home, but just 8-6 SU away from home.
Allen is 13-5 SU as a favorite at night and only 3-3 SU as a dog - Under is 27-18-2 in Josh Allen road games in his career ā 13th-best to the under on the road in the last 20 years, including 11-4 last two seasons.
- Bills recently on road vs. Dolphins: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS since 2017
Bills have won eight straight home games vs. Dolphins. Last loss was in 2016. They are 12-1 SU in last 13 home games vs. Dolphins. - Bills have lost seven straight night games ATS and five straight night games at home ATS
Worst ATS profitability in night games in last two years (-$534) - Allen is 20-6 SU, 15-10-1 ATS vs. NFC in his career.
- In toss up games, Josh Allen has performed well.
Spread is 3 points or less, Allen is 19-12 SU, 19-11-1 ATS.
Spread is 4 points or less, Allen is 25-14 SU, 23-15-1 ATS. - Something about the AFC East. After facing the division, Allenās not so great ATS following week.
After facing AFC East: 12-21-1 ATS
After facing all other teams: 37-24-4 ATS - Josh Allen is 4-6-1 ATS after facing the Patriots, but 0-5-1 ATS in his last five starts after New England. Not the easiest spot for Allen.
- Bills have scored 20 points or more in seven straight games ā the Bills record is 11 such games.
When the Bills offense plays well, the defense tends to show up as well. 10-6 to the under this season
Bills are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games, including 6-9 ATS in their last 15 games
Bills 13-20-1 ATS mark since start of last year is the fifth-worst in the NFL - Another game, another Josh Allen interception.
December 19-28, 2020: last time Josh Allen didnāt have a turnover in consecutive regular season starts.
Regular Season:
He has 76 INT since 2018, most in NFL
He has 58 fumbles since 2018, most in NFL. - Josh Allen has 66 wins in his career ā 47 of those 66 wins have been by 7 points or more.
- Josh Allen vs AFC East
NE: 7-4-1 ATS ā Allenās most profitable opponent ATS
MIA/NYJ: 10-12-1 ATS
Allen is 5-6 ATS vs. Jets - Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career.
Allen is 32-20-3 ATS on 7 days rest (11th-most profitable QB ATS last 20 years in this spot)
Heās 8-10-1 ATS on short rest and 7-13-1 ATS on extended rest. - The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 58-39-3 against the second half spread. Since 2005, heās the third-most profitable QB on the second half spread of 257 QBs.
- Josh Allen is 0-6 in overtime. The Bills as a franchise are now 3-12 SU (20%) in overtime since 2010, T-worst win pct of any team (Jaguars are 2-8).
BUF is 0-6 SU/ATS in OT games since December, 2017. - Josh Allen has 12 straight games of 2+ pass TD vs. Dolphins
Since 1970, only two other QBs even have five consecutive games with 2+ pass TDs vs. Dolphins: Brady 5, Esiason 4. - When two great teams play (SU margin of 7+), the favorite is 93-117-4 ATS (44.3%) last 20 years.
Week 18: BUF - Teams to see the line move 3 points or more away from them ā ex. -3 to -6 ā are 36-42-2 ATS this season ā 89-111-4 ATS (44.5%) since start of last year & 146-175-6 ATS (45.5%) since 2020
Week 18: DAL, TB, PIT, BUF, LAC
Get the latest coverage on NFL Weather.
Dolphins
- Team status: 11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS.
Over win total of 9.5.
MIA clinches AFC East with a win - Dolphins entered the season with 20-1 Super Bowl odds, their lowest since 2015 and their win total of 9.5 was their lowest since 2004.
- Miami hasnāt been a preseason favorite to win AFC East since 2003 and they havenāt been favored at all to win the AFC East since winning the division back in 2008.
Havenāt won AFC East in 14 seasons (fifth-longest streak in NFL active) - This will be Tuaās 10th start at night. Heās 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS (3-4 ATS on road, 0-2 ATS at home).
Tuaās lost all three of his night starts as an underdog, all on the road (PHI, BUF, CIN) - Tua career vs. Josh Allen: 1-5 SU, 2-3-1 ATS
At home: 1-1 SU/ATS | On road: 0-4 SU, 1-2-1 - Tua off a SU loss: 7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS
Off a SU loss at home: 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS (0-4 SU, 1-2-1 ATS road/neutral) - Tua is 11-5 SU, 11-4-1 ATS vs. AFC East in his career. Over the last 20 years, Tua is the second-most profitable QB ATS vs. AFC East opponents behind Tom Brady at No. 1.
Tua vs. Jets: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS
Tua vs. Patriots: 6-0 ATS | vs. Jets & Bills: 5-4-1 ATS - Dolphins have played three games this year after their defense allowed 28 points or more in previous game, they are 4-0 SU/ATS.
- Tyreek Hill watchā¦
Tyreek has 1,717 receiving yards this season. Hill is 283 receiving yards shy of 2,000 and 248 yards shy of breaking the single-season record (1,964) by Calvin Johnson in 2012.
Tyreek was +950 to lead NFL in receiving yards entering this season (third-top choice). - When Tua faces an opposing offense avg 21 PPG or less, he is 16-6 SU, including 15-2 SU in his last 17 in this spot (he began his career 1-4 SU in this spot).
When he faces an offense avg more than 21 PPG: 13-12 SU - Since 2021, Dolphins are 5-12 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 19-8 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.
After Miami lost to Baltimore, they are now 3-8 SU since the start of last season vs. teams over .500 SU. - Dolphins are 4-8 SU in December or later since start of last year.
Most of the issues has been on the road. They are 1-1 SU on road in Dec. this year, but are 4-14 SU on road in Dec or later since 2017 and 6-17 SU since 2015.
Dolphins are 2-1 SU at home in December in 2023. Miami hasnāt finished below .500 SU at home in December or later since 2014.
Last 20 years, Dolphins are 33-25 SU at home in December or later and 18-30 SU on the road. - Tua vs. above .500 SU teams career: 8-7-1 ATS
When heās at home: 5-0 ATS
When heās on road/neutral: 3-7-1 ATS
Tua is now 2-9 straight up and 3-7-1 against the spread, road/neutral vs. "winning" teams ā he is failing to cover the spread by 11.82 PPG. - Tua prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. Heās 18-7 ATS at home and 11-13-1 ATS away from home in his career.
Dolphins havenāt finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015
Miami is 39-22-3 ATS since 2016 at home ā best home team ATS in that span - Tua by time zone: 26-12-1 ATS in EST | 3-6 ATS all other time zones
- Dolphins are avg 30.1 PPG this season.
In a teams 10th game or later, teams who avg 30 PPG or more playing on the road/neutral are 53-75-5 ATS (41.4%).
At home they are 81-85-3 (48.8%) - Multiple players with 20+ touchdowns in the same season (since 1965):
ā 2023 (Mostert & McCaffrey)
ā 2021 (Ekeler & Taylor)
ā 2005 (Alexander, Johnson, & Tomlinson)
ā 2003 (Green & Holmes)
ā 1983 (Dickerson & Riggins)
ā 1975 (Foreman & Simpson)
ā 1965 (Brown & Sayers) - Dolphins have a takeaway in ten straight games ā longest active streak among all teams.
- Teams to avg 30 PPG or more in December or later are 88-123-3 ATS (41.7%) last 20 years.
Week 18: MIA - Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didnāt, are 92-68-1 ATS (58%) since 2020.
Week 18: MIA, ATL, CAR, MIN, TEN - The 49ers have replaced the Dolphins in the yards/play race.
Highest YPP, Single Season
2000 Rams: 6.98, 2018 Chiefs: 6.84, 2023 49ers: 6.70, 2011 Saints: 6.69, 2004 Colts: 6.69, 2016 Falcons: 6.69
Dolphins at 6.51 this season.
The Betting Markets
Tap carrot below to expand. For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.
NFL Public Sides & Line Moves ā¤µļø
| Biggest NFL Week 18 Public Sides | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patriots (-2) vs. NYJ | 73% of bets | |||||
Bears (+3) at GB | 70% of bets | |||||
| Biggest NFL Week 18 Line Moves | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cowboys (-3.to -13) at WAS | ||||||
Buccaneers (+2.5 to -3.5) at CAR | ||||||
NFL Ticket Count & Public Totals ā¤µļø
| Most Bet Games By Ticket Count in Week 18 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bills at Dolphins (+3) | 75k bets | |||||
Bears at Packers (-3) | 60k bets | |||||
| Biggest NFL Week 18 Public Totals | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DEN-LVR (O/U: 37) | 90% of bets to under | |||||
BUF-MIA (O/U: 48.5) | 85% of bets to under | |||||
NFL Betting Systems
System: This is an end of the year system. Fade teams who needs to win.
Matches: DEN, GB, CLE, KC, JAC, SEA, DET, NO, MIA
System: In high wind games, take the under.
Matches: The home teams ā> BAL, MIA, SF, CAR, NE, CIN, GB, TEN
System: Teams to lead by 7 or more at the end of the 1Q are 84-20 SU (81%), 80-21-3 ATS (79%) full game this year. That 79% ATS mark would be best in a full year since 1998.
NFL Anytime TD & First TD Data
Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet ā which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.
- Final Week! Can anyone take down Texans FB Andrew Beck for Profits Leader?
- Top 3 Biggest ATD Hits of W17: Patrick Ricard +2200 Gunner Olzewski +2200 Bailey Zappe +1300
Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each and every week in 2023.
- Packers WR Jayden Reed IS RED HOT!! 5x First TD Hits in 2023. Now at +63U on the season.
- Reed and Jakobi Meyers (+53.5U) are only players with 5x First TD winners in 2023.
The Big Picture
NFL Player Incentives ā¤µļø
Show Me The Money!
Entering Week 18
Last One Standing
The Favorite Team
- With the Chiefs listed as underdogs this week, the 49ers will be favored in all 17 games this season ā only team across the NFL.
The Big Flop
Diamonds To Dust
Are the Jets the biggest flop ever? The Jets were 150-1 to win it all entering last season.
They entered this year at 18-1. That big of a jump into inside 20-1 odds year-to-year has only been done three other times.
Biggest SB Moves Year-to-Year to Inside 20-1 Odds Since Merger
1979 to 1980 WAS 300-1 to 8-1 (+29,200). 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS, Miss
1999 to 2000 STL 150-1 to 3-1 (+14,700). 10-7 SU, 6-10-1 ATS, L WC
1983 to 1984 NO 150-1 to 8-1 (+14,200). 7-9 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, Miss
2022 to 2023 NYJ 150-1 to 18-1 (+13,200). 6-10 SU, 5-10-1 ATS, Miss
Public Praise
Year To remember
In 2023, the betting public ā or teams with 51% of the tickets or more ā are 130-108-9 ATS (54.6%) (+$964).
The public has lost money each of the past five years (2018-22) for the first time since 2006-10.
Betting Public This Season By Pct
51%+ ā 130-108-9 ATS (54.6%)
60%+ ā 76-56-6 ATS (57.6%)
66%+ ā 43-34-3 ATS (55.8%)
70%+ ā 23-21-1 ATS (52.3%)
High Bryce
Bad History
The Panthers had a win total of 7.5 in the preseason ā tied for the 2nd-highest win total for a team after drafting 1st overall in the Wild Card era. Their two wins are the fewest of the group.
Highest Team O/U ā Draft QB 1st Overall in WC Era (since 1990)
1992 Giants/Dave Brown ā 9 (Supplemental Draft) (6-10 SU)
2023 Panthers/Bryce Young ā 7.5 (2-14 SU)
2016 Rams/Jared Goff ā 7.5 (4-12 SU)
Super Bowl Futures ā¤µļø
Biggest Super Bowl Riser
Cleveland Browns: 35-1 (CLE was 50-1 to win SB last week)
Biggest Super Bowl Faller
Indianapolis Colts: 100-1 (IND was 66-1 to win SB last week)
Win Total Tracker ā¤µļø
Tap carrot below to expand. For more information on NFL Win Totals, check out our NFL futures page with updated markets.
NFL Win Total Grid and Progress
| Trending Up š | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colts ā | 9-7 | Win Total: 6.5 | ||||
Rams ā | 9-7 | Win Total: 6.5 | ||||
Buccaneers ā | 8-8 | Win Total: 6.5 | ||||
Texans ā | 9-7 | Win Total: 6.5 | ||||
Lions ā | 11-5 | Win Total: 9.5 | ||||
Dolphins ā | 11-5 | Win Total: 9.5 | ||||
Ravens ā | 13-3 | Win Total: 10.5 | ||||
Raiders ā | 7-9 | Win Total: 6.5 | ||||
Cowboys ā | 11-5 | Win Total: 9.5 | ||||
Browns ā | 11-5 | Win Total: 9.5 | ||||
49ers ā | 12-4 | Win Total: 10.5 | ||||
Steelers ā | 9-7 | Win Total: 8.5 | ||||
Packers ā | 8-8 | Win Total: 7.5 | ||||
Eagles | 11-5 | Win Total: 11.5 | ||||
Seahawks | 8-8 | Win Total: 8.5 | ||||
Bills | 10-6 | Win Total: 10.5 | ||||
Jaguars | 9-7 | Win Total: 9.5 | ||||
| Trending Down š | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bears | 7-9 | Win Total: 7.5 | ||||
Broncos | 8-8 | Win Total: 8.5 | ||||
Cardinals | 4-12 | Win Total: 4.5 | ||||
Falcons ā | 7-9 | Win Total: 8.5 | ||||
Vikings ā | 7-9 | Win Total: 8.5 | ||||
Chiefs ā | 10-6 | Win Total: 11.5 | ||||
Saints ā | 8-8 | Win Total: 9.5 | ||||
Bengals ā | 8-8 | Win Total: 11.5 | ||||
Titans ā | 5-11 | Win Total: 7.5 | ||||
Giants ā | 5-11 | Win Total: 7.5 | ||||
Jets ā | 6-10 | Win Total: 9.5 | ||||
Commanders ā | 4-12 | Win Total: 6.5 | ||||
Patriots ā | 4-12 | Win Total: 7.5 | ||||
Chargers ā | 5-11 | Win Total: 9.5 | ||||
Panthers ā | 2-14 | Win Total: 7.5 | ||||
ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ā¤µļø
For more information on NFL Against The Spread standings, check out the Action Network page on the website.
Award Betting Progress ā¤µļø
Tap carrot below to expand. For more information on NFL award odds, check out our NFL futures page with updated markets.
NFL Awards Matrix
 |  Leader |  2nd In Odds |  3rd In Odds |
| NFL MVP | Lamar Jackson (-10000) | Dak Prescott (+1800) | Brock Purdy (+2500) |
| Offensive POY | Christian McCaffrey (-375) | Tyreek Hill (+275) | CeeDee Lamb (+1500) |
| Defensive POY | Myles Garrett (-200) | Micah Parsons (+300) | T.J. Watt (+400) |
| Offensive ROY | CJ Stroud (-1000) | Puka Nacua (+450) | Sam LaPorta (+15000) |
| Defensive ROY | Jalen Carter (-700) | Will Anderson (+375) | Devon Witherspoon (+5000) |
| Comeback POY | Damar Hamlin (-130) | Ā Joe Flacco (+100) | Baker Mayfield (+1300) |
| Coach Of The Year | Kevin Stefanski (-1000) | DeMeco Ryans (+1000) | Shane Steichen (+1000) |
| Updated as of Jan. 3 | |||
Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:
- Here are your favorites entering Week 18:
- Lamar Jackson MVP, Christian McCaffrey OPOY, Myles Garrett DPOY, CJ Stroud OROY, Jalen Carter DROY, Damar Hamlin CPOY, Kevin Stefanski COY.
Season Stat Leader Betting Progress ā¤µļø
Tap carrot below to expand. For more information on NFL leader odds, check out our NFL futures page with updated markets (odds below are from preseason).
NFL Stat Leader Matrix
| Leader | 2nd In Category | 3rd In Category |
| Pass Yds | Tua Tagovailoa (+2000): Leader | Brock Purdy (+6600): -171 | Jared Goff (+2500): -196 |
| Pass TD | Ā Dak Prescott (+2000): Leader | Brock Purdy (+5000): -1 | Jordan Love (+6600): -2 |
| INT | Sam Howell (N/A): Leader | Josh Allen (+1000): -3 | Jalen Hurts (+6600): -5 |
| Rec. Yds | Tyreek Hill (+950): Leader | CeeDee Lamb (+1800): -66 | A.J. Brown (+1800): -270 |
| Rec. TD | Ā Mike Evans (+3000): Leader | Tyreek Hill (+1400): -1 | CeeDee Lamb (+2000): -3 |
| Receptions | CeeDee Lamb (+2200): Leader | Tyreek Hill (+1100): -10 | Amon-Ra St. Brown (+1100): -10 |
| Rush TD | Raheem Mostert (+4000): Leader | Jalen Hurts (+800): -3 | Josh Allen (+4000): -3 |
| Sacks | T.J. Watt (+850): Co-Leader | Trey Hendrickson (+3500): Co-Leader | Josh Allen (+5000): -0.5 |
| Tackles | Zaire Franklin (+2000): Leader | Bobby Wagner (+2200): -2 | Foyesade Oluokun (+650): -4 |
| INT | DaRon Bland (N/A): Leader | Geno Stone (N/A): -1 | Jessie Bates III (+3400): -2 |
| Kick Pts | Brandon Aubrey (N/A): Leader | Justin Tucker (+500): -6 | Jason Myers (+1200): -18 |
| Updated as of Dec. 26th | |||
Trivia Instructions
For this weeks trivia question, we are just looking for one answer. Click the button below to reveal the right answer
Trivia Question: Name the most profitable QB against the spread entering Week 18 this season.
ā Click This Button For Trivia Answer ā
Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson, both at 11-5 ATS
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