Titans vs. Texans Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2025

Random over of the day

Woody Marks over 24.5 Rush Yds (-114 at FD) Has just 3.7 yards per carry so far, but this is the spot where he's most likely to up that significantly in a single game Through 3 games, Marks has faced three defenses that rank 11th, 1st, and 17th against man/gap scheme runs, which HOU prefers to run with both Chubb and Marks by a wide margin However, TEN ranks 29th, allowing 6.23 ypc on 39 attempts Additionally, HOU rush attempts to the right guard gap have gained 7.4 YPC on 7 rushes (highest gap volume and YPC), while TEN has allowed 9.4 YPC to that gap on 8 carries (2nd highest gap volume faced and 2nd highest YPC allowed) TEN has also allowed 2.67 yards before contact, 3rd worst and worse than all 3 teams Marks has faced so far Should be able to get enough volume regardless of game script Would get more carries in a lead/blowout But in a trailing situation he's been in on a higher percentage of passing snaps to total snaps than Chubb, so could see an extra draw/handoff or two that way HOU has just 14 snaps with the lead this year vs. 104 trailing, but as 7.5-point favorites we'd expect a much heavier run script for HOU Conservatively projecting 7.5 carries at 4.25 yards per carry, with a 58% chance to go over 24.5 Fine with over 25.5 -111 at DK, over 26.5 -105 at ESPN

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Stroud has yet to clear this in three games, and that is despite the Texans playing with a lead at the 6th lowest rate so far. They are 7.5-point favorites at home against the Titans, so the odds of playing with a lead, even a two-score lead, go way up here. For an under like this, we actually want Stroud to be efficient early to grab that lead. Tennessee is blitzing and generating pressure at bottom-five rates, and in both scenarios he is pushing the ball downfield less. He is also scrambling much more this season, which lowers his passing upside. The matchup projects to be a more run heavy one for Houston. The Titans rank 31st in rush defense DVOA, so this is a rare spot where Houston can and should get the ground game going and take a little off Stroud’s plate while leaning on the defense. On the other side, Cam Ward has been sacked a league-high 15 times, and with RT JC Latham out again, the Texans should rack up a handful more. Sacks and shorter fields are huge for this prop. The rooting guide is simple: want Hou to get a quick lead, a short TD pass (or two) early is fine, then let the defense create sacks or turnovers, shorten the field, and let Houston run the ball with the lead. That is the game script I am projecting, which is why I have this closer to 211.5.

@ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/JNv2zeOUXWb

Most of the Texans' offensive issues have come on late downs. If they can solve for that, I do still think they'll be able to put up some points eventually.

My numbers project this line Texans -5. Both teams are terrible, I’ll take the divisional dog catching 7 and the 🪝.