Saints vs. Dolphins Odds & Betting Predictions - November 30, 2025

This is yet another windy game, and it's a game where the Saints are sorely lacking weapons. New Orleans officially waived Brandin Cooks, and now Alvin Kamara is hurt, leaving the Saints without their top two RBs and meaning far too many touches for Taysom Hill. Remember when we made Tyler Shough a favorite last week? The Raiders too? Fun times. Miami comes in rested off its bye week, and I like the Dolphins full game too but prefer the first-half line. Both teams are better in defense right now. That's not saying much for the Saints with their awful offense, but it might be surprising for Miami. The Dolphins have ranked in the top quarter of the league defensively by DVOA over the last six weeks, including best in the league against the run. It'll be on Shough's shoulders. Miami has ranked near the bottom of the league against short passes and in allowing explosives this season, but the Saints rank dead last in both areas. New Orleans just may not be able to hurt Miami's weak spots. The Dolphins also have a monster special teams advantage with the Saints near worst in the league, a great hidden advantage that matters even more in windy conditions. The Saints defense has been league-average at home this season but worse on the road, bottom quarter of the league. It's also been worse in the first half, where it's ranked bottom 10 by DVOA versus top 10 in the first half. Miami's offense has been better early, above average by DVOA versus bottom five in the second half. These are the games where Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel do well, as clear favorites against sub-.500 competition. The Saints are an awful 1-10 ATS in the first quarter, so you can just play that at even odds if you prefer. I'm giving Miami the whole first half to be the better team. The Saints are also worst in the league in 1H ATS at 3-8, but New Orleans is actually 7-4 ATS in the second half, while Miami is 4-7. Avoid the second half back door and play Miami 1H -2.5 (-115, Fanatics). It's a great way to get below the key number from the full-game spread, and home favorites of seven or less coming off a bye are 86-66-22 ATS (57%) in the first half.