Raiders vs. Rams Odds & Betting Predictions - October 20, 2024

🔬The Raiders have allowed a high percentage of the total rec yards to RB over the past few weeks and with their higher end cover 3 usage and no serious perimeter wr and kupp out there’s plenty of opportunity for kyren to get 20+ here- his 2 best rec yards game have been Vs teams with 28% or higher cover 3 usage 🔬RB rec yard performances vs raiders - Steelers combined 27, Javante 50, ford 7/27, Chubba 55, ravens combined for 22

B. Bowers ⬆️ 60.5 RecY (-110 @ FanDuel) THE BLITZ 📽️: 76.52 RecY Here are Bowers last 2 games: @ DEN: 8 catches for 97 yards on 12 targets vs PIT: 9 catches for 71 yards on 10 targets The breakout is here and with Adams out of the way, he becomes the clear primary guy for whoever is starting at QB. After receiving a sub-70% snap share in the first 3 games of the season, he has seen almost an 80% snap share in the last 3. O'Connell will be starting at QB again and he clearly has chemistry with Bowers. If we look at the game prior when Minshew was benched for O'Connell, we still say O'Connell going to Bowers regularly. After he entered in the second half he targeted Bowers 4 times. Another favorite target of O'Connell is Meyers who has been declared out for this game. How about the matchup? Well, the Rams are allowing the 3rd most receiving yards to opposing TE's. Let's see another nice week for the big man as the Raiders once again are likely to be playing from behind.

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Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-prop-picks-today-for-brock-bowers-kareem-hunt

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3% ev

**This should be -110** Christian Rozeboom is a linebacker for the Rams averaging 8.4 tackles+assists and has seen an increased role from last year coming into the new season with stud LB Ernest Jones traded to the Titans. Coming off the bye week, he’s hit this line in just two of the five weeks, but the three misses were understandable. He ranks 40th out of 54 qualified LBs in tackling efficiency and In games where he went over his prop, he faced run-heavy teams like the Lions and 49ers, who rank top-10 in rushing play % greater for LB tackles. He also recorded 10 tackles vs. the Bears on perfect efficiency, also a team that allows the 3rd most tackles vs. LBs per @PFF_Macri (fantastic follow). To continue, his most recent game’s development vs. the Packers was interesting, as he saw a reduced snap rate, not being a full-time player and playing on only 11.1% of his the 3rd/4th down snap share per PFF. Not only should this hurt his opportunities, but he also now facing a LV Raiders team led by Aiden O’Connell that ranks 19th in tackles allowed to the LB position because they’re running the 3rd-lowest plays on the ground and often in trailing gamescripts. As 7.0 favorites at home and potentially with Kupp back, I expect Stafford to force feed Kyren the ball and make it long enough for the Rams defense to not have to get on the field like normal. 8.5 TA at that rate will be a lot to cover given the environment I predict happening. #PlayerProps

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Collab with @TheBMatt. Rams play Zone at top-6 rate and Bowers has a 33% target share and 2.48 YPRR vs Zone. Rams also rank last in defensive DVOA vs TE with 3TD allowed.

Weekly NFL QB INT bets. Article coming shortly.

+ev play and projection leans to the over giving us value at this number

Meyers assumed the No. 1 outside receiver role with Davante Adams sidelined. His usage mirrored that of his former teammate, with the majority of his routes and targets coming out wide. That should be valuable in this matchup. The Rams run Cover 3 at the 5th-highest rate and use single-high safety looks at the 7th-highest rate. This approach is typically a boost to outside receivers, and that's what we've seen so far. LA's defense ranks tied for 1st in yards per target and 2nd in yards per route run against receivers lined up out wide. They've allowed the 6th-most yards per game to outside receivers. Adams led the team in percentage of routes run out wide at 70.8% through three weeks. He also led the team with a 1st-read target rate of 34.8%. Meyers had perfectly split between running routes out wide (49.5%) and in the slot (49.5%) from Weeks 1-3. Since Adams went down, Meyers is running 79% of his routes out wide. He's piled up 19 targets and leads the team with a 34.1% 1st-read rate in his two healthy games. With Adams now in New York, Meyers should continue to see a boatload of opportunities.