Lions vs. Bengals Odds & Betting Predictions - October 5, 2025

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Mall Santa Alert 🎅 Browning has only scrambled once (for 3 yards) on 92 dropbacks so far which is a lower rate than fellow Mall Santa’s Jared Goff/Joe Flacco. He was much more willing to scramble in 2023 so I bet we do see his rate go up, but not enough to project him for 2+ scrambles here, which he may need to clear this. Would also take this at u8.5

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/BHq4lSblaXb

We already bet a couple ugly low unders. This one will feel ugly for the opposite reason — because our instincts expect points here, and because it's never really fun to bet an under. I probably don't need to convince you to bet against the Bengals offense. Cincinnati has 13 points combined the last two weeks with Jake Browning and is struggling to move the ball in a bad way, with an offensive line that can't block anyone. Of course, the Bengals also gave up 76 points in those two games with a defense that can't stop a nose bleed, so we wouldn't the Lions just put up a big number on Cincinnati? I don't really have an answer to that other than that sports are weird and the trends point otherwise, one trend in particular. Jared Goff isn't as good outdoors or on the road, and this is an obvious look-ahead spot for Detroit with a trip to Kansas City next week. The truth is that the trends are begging us to invest in what surely must be the low point for Cincinnati at +10.5, but I just can't bring myself to invest, nor to bet against Detroit with all their great ATS trends. Which trends? There are trends backing teams bouncing back after an awful margin of victory stretch, trends for home 10-to-14-point underdogs, trends backing teams off a big loss against those off a big win. There are a couple positive 2-2 trends that would support the Bengals too — yes, this team is somehow 2-2. If the Bengals are going to cover, though, they probably don't want to get into a shootout with this Lions offense. A game close enough to cover probably goes under, with the Lions just sort of going through the motions and getting the W, even if it's not pretty. Since 2013, games featuring a home underdog of at least seven points with a total over 45 are going under 67% of the time by more than a field goal. This game fits even better. If you bump that trend to 48+ points and limit it to dogs of just 7-to-12 points, those games are an incredible 49-16-1 to the under, going under 75% of the time by 4.0 PPG. I don't feel great about it either, but that trend is really strong and works in conjunction with all the trends backing the Bengals, so we'll just trust the number and play it — but you may want to wait til closer to kickoff as this total continues to tick up. The Lions did play in games with 68 and 73 points, but they also played games with 40 and 44. Let's hope for the latter and go under 49.5

Mgm

@sundaysixpack @Stuckey2 https://myaction.app/EndAFkDG7Wb

@Stuckey2 1 https://myaction.app/EndAFkDG7Wb

Can’t get to this number. Not sure how Bengals get any stops but offense should look much more functional this week at home vs non elite pass rush with cluster CB injuries.