Eagles vs. Buccaneers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2025

Alt under https://www.actionnetwork.com/content/nfl-predictions-week-4-expert-data-driven-picks-sunday-sept-28

Alt under https://www.actionnetwork.com/content/nfl-predictions-week-4-expert-data-driven-picks-sunday-sept-28

Devonta Smith under 4.5 receptions (-110 BetMGM) Since the start of last year, when AJ Brown, Smith, and Dallas Goedert were all healthy, Smith has averaged 4.44 rec in 9 games, and stayed under 4.5 in 7 of 9, so already before applying any adjustments we're working from a good spot Two major factors play a role here: 1. A tough matchup when he lines up in the slot (expected 60%+) against rookie 3rd round CB Jacob Parrish, who's allowed just 7 rec on 8 targets through 3 games on 94 coverage routes faced 2. The pressure TB is expected to bring on defense In that 9-game sample with the healthy receiving trio, Devonta Smith has been targeted 7 times on 105 routes when Jalen Hurts faces pressure The aDOT of the targets is farther downfield at 11.2 yards, resulting in just 4 receptions on those 7 targets. TB is currently No. 2 in the NFL in pressure rate over expected (PrROE), and faces an eagles o-line that's allowed the second-highest PrROE according to Fantasy Points data, so Hurts could be in for a ton of scrambling/sacks and more long throws, making Smith's expected targets per route and catch rate drop I'm projecting closer to 4.1 receptions with a 61% chance of staying under 4.5 I wouldn't touch his yardage under, because it's more likely if he does catch passes, they are of the longer variety since Hurts should be under a lot of pressure