Dolphins vs. Chargers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 10, 2023

Dolphins at Chargers

8:25 pm • CBS

Miami Dolphins

3-6

36 - 34

Los Angeles Chargers

6-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Dolphins 3-6	+3-110	o50-110	+136
Chargers 6-3	-3-110	u50-110	-164

Sunday 8:25 p.m.

September 10, 2023

SoFi StadiumInglewood

Over 50-110

0.5u

LAC -3-110

$200.00

R.Chosen o6.5 Rush + Rec Yds-121

$1.00

LAC -3-110

0.55u

T.Hill o6.5 Recs+108

0.32u

Via @PropBetGuy

T.Hill o6.5 Recs+108

1.08u

Full write up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/dolphins-vs-chargers-raiders-vs-broncos-player-props-picks-tyreek-hill-hunter-renfrow?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=propbetguy

T.Hill o81.5 Rec Yds-115

T.Tagovailoa o1.5 Pass TDs-134

$0.75

LAC -3-110

Over 50.5-115

0.5u

Under 51-110

Both of these defenses suck right? Right?

J.Herbert o0.5 Int+130

0.5u

K.Allen o65.5 Rec Yds-125

0.8u

R.Mostert o12.5 Rush Att-120

1.2u

LAC -3-110

$55.00

Over 51-110

T.Tagovailoa o259.5 Pass Yds-115

0.87u

Under 50.5-108

I understand why the total here is low. It's an indoor game (though some wind does leak through) with two offenses that can put up points. But both of these defenses have the potential to be great this year, even with Jalen Ramsey out for the Dolphins. The pace in this game projects a smidge below average, especially given the Dolphins may want to be a bit cautious with Tua Tagovailoa coming off of so many injuries. The Chargers project to be up-tempo with Kellen Moore in town, but they already operated at a decently fast clip last year, so that's not a deviation. The easiest path to this bet failing is big plays popping up, and that's very possible. But given both defenses are constructed with the main intent of stopping said big plays, I do agree with my model that the under is the way to go.

Featured Insight
Chargers QBs had a 93.3 passer rating last season -- 10th-best in NFL. The Dolphins allowed a passer rating of 95.4 last season -- fifth-worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Dolphins had an average drive start position from the 23.3 yard line last season -- worst in NFL. The Chargers allowed an average drive start position from the 25.5 yard line last season -- tied for seventh-best in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Chargers are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Chargers are 4-0 in their last 5 games against the spread
Chargers are 3-2 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Chargers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Chargers' 4 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Chargers	6-2-1	3-0-1	3-2	6-1	0-1-1
Dolphins	3-6	0-4	3-2	1-4	2-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Chargers	2-7	1-3	1-4	2-5	0-2
Dolphins	3-6	2-2	1-4	2-3	1-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Chargers	6-3	N/A	N/A	6-1	0-2
Dolphins	3-6	N/A	N/A	2-3	1-3

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 26th	@SF	W 23-12	+7.5 W	U 38.5	LAC +290
Aug 20th	NO	L 17-22	+3 L	O 36	NO +136
Aug 13th	@LA	W 34-17	+2.5 W	O 34	LAC +120
Jan 15th	@JAC	L 30-31	-2.5 L	O 46.5	JAC -136
Jan 8th	@DEN	L 28-31	+6.5 W	O 39.5	DEN +210

Trey Pipkins
T
Pipkins is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Kristian Fulton
CB
Fulton is doubtful with hamstring
Doubtful
Stone Smartt
TE
Smartt is questionable with ankle
Questionable

Brenden Rice
WR
Rice is out with shoulder
Out

Alec Ingold
FB
Ingold is questionable with calf
Questionable
Austin Jackson
OL
Jackson is out with knee
Out
Patrick McMorris
DB
McMorris is questionable with calf
Questionable

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Dolphins

Total

Chargers

536

Total Yards

433

Total Plays

8.2

Yards Per Play

5.7

Dolphins

Passing

Chargers

466

YDS

229

28/45

Comps/Atts

23/33

10.356

YPA

5.556

3/1

TDs/INTs

1/0

0/0

Sacks/Yards

3/29

Dolphins

Rushing

Chargers

Rush Yards

233

Attempts

3.5

YPC

5.825

TDs

Dolphins

Turnovers

Chargers

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Dolphins

Efficiency

Chargers

3/5 60%

Redzone

4/5 80%

4/9 0%

3rd Down

9/15 0%

1/1 0%

4th Down

0/1 0%

Dolphins

First Downs

Chargers

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Dolphins

Misc

Chargers

6/38

Penalties/Yards

6/70

27:19

Possession

32:41

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MatchupOverUnder
Dolphins 3-6	o23.5-110	u23.5-110
Chargers 6-3	o26.5-113	u26.5-108

Dolphins vs. Chargers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 10, 2023

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Public

Chargers

Bets%

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