Colts vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - November 12, 2023

#LuckRankings

Hate this game

Raybon 1

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-picks-for-week-10-bet-or-wait-using-our-luck-rankings-model

#LuckRankings

@nick_giffen is the luck master and he says this is a big luck under.

Available at FanDuel. There has been some movement toward the Patriots here, so it's possible you can get a better number later. I do think the Colts are a good value, though, so I would disagree with that movement if it were to take place. Gardner Minshew has averaged 0.01 Passing NEP per drop back (numberFire's EPA metric) this year, which isn't great -- but it does top Mac Jones' mark of -0.12. That number is unadjusted for opponent, and the Colts have faced a pretty decent level of competition on defense thus far. They've also maintained their early-down rushing efficiency even without Anthony Richardson thanks to Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss. The Patriots played better than their result in Week 9, but they're still just 28th in my model's offensive power rankings. I also think the under is very much in play here, but I prefer the Colts' side by a smidge.