Colts vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - November 12, 2023

Colts at Patriots

2:30 pm • NFL Network

Indianapolis Colts

4-6

10 - 6

New England Patriots

3-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Colts 4-6	-2	-1.5-111	o42.5-107	-120
Patriots 3-7	u43	+1.5-109	u42.5-110	+100

Sunday 2:30 p.m.

November 12, 2023

NE +4 (Live)-110

1.1u

Ringer wise guys

NE +4.5 (Live)-110

Ringer wise guys

NE +200 (Live)

Ringer wise guys

NE +1.5-110

$55.00

J.Taylor o18.5 Rec Yds-135

NE +2-110

IND u22.5-105

#LuckRankings

NE +2-110

IND -2-112

Over 43.5-107

0.5u

Hate this game

NE +2-107

0.5u

Hate this game

Under 43.5-110

R.Thomas u3.5 Tackles + Ast-125

NE +1.5-110

1.1u

Raybon 1

IND -1.5-111

0.45u

NE +2-107

NE +1.5-110

IND -122

0.82u

Under 43.5-110

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-picks-for-week-10-bet-or-wait-using-our-luck-rankings-model

Under 43.5-110

#LuckRankings

Under 43.5-110

0.91u

@nick_giffen is the luck master and he says this is a big luck under.

IND -1.5-110

0.91u

Available at FanDuel. There has been some movement toward the Patriots here, so it's possible you can get a better number later. I do think the Colts are a good value, though, so I would disagree with that movement if it were to take place. Gardner Minshew has averaged 0.01 Passing NEP per drop back (numberFire's EPA metric) this year, which isn't great -- but it does top Mac Jones' mark of -0.12. That number is unadjusted for opponent, and the Colts have faced a pretty decent level of competition on defense thus far. They've also maintained their early-down rushing efficiency even without Anthony Richardson thanks to Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss. The Patriots played better than their result in Week 9, but they're still just 28th in my model's offensive power rankings. I also think the under is very much in play here, but I prefer the Colts' side by a smidge.

IND -1.5-110

IND -1.5-104

Featured Insight
The Patriots have thrown for 20+ yards on 8 of 136 attempts since Week 5 -- tied for fourth-worst in NFL. The Colts allowed 20+ yards on 7.0% of attempts since Week 5 -- tied for eighth-best in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Colts have been successful on 39.0% of plays they have run this season -- tied for seventh-worst in NFL. Patriots have allowed their opponents to be successful on 41.0% of plays this season -- tied for ninth-best in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Patriots are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Patriots are 2-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Patriots are 3-2 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Patriots' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Patriots' 4 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Patriots	4-5-1	1-2-1	3-2	N/A	4-5-1
Colts	7-3	4-1	3-2	2-1	5-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Patriots	5-5	3-1	1-4	N/A	5-5
Colts	4-6	3-2	1-4	0-3	4-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Patriots	3-7	N/A	N/A	N/A	3-7
Colts	4-6	N/A	N/A	2-1	2-5

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Nov 5th	WAS	L 17-20	-3 L	U 40.5	WAS -154
Oct 29th	@MIA	L 17-31	+8.5 L	O 46.5	MIA +350
Oct 22nd	BUF	W 29-25	+7.5 W	O 41.5	NE +310
Oct 15th	@LV	L 17-21	+3 L	U 41.5	LV +124
Oct 8th	NO	L 0-34	-2 L	U 38.5	NO -130

Yannick Ngakoue
LB
Ngakoue is out with personal
Out
Kyle Dugger
S
Dugger is out with ankle
Out
Christian Elliss
LB
Elliss is out with abdomen
Out

Cameron McGrone
LB
McGrone is questionable with elbow
Questionable
Jaylon Carlies
DB
Carlies is out with knee
Out

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Colts

Total

Patriots

264

Total Yards

340

Total Plays

4.9

Yards Per Play

Colts

Passing

Patriots

194

YDS

195

18/28

Comps/Atts

18/27

6.929

YPA

5.406

0/1

TDs/INTs

0/2

0/0

Sacks/Yards

5/22

Colts

Rushing

Patriots

Rush Yards

167

Attempts

2.692

YPC

4.639

TDs

Colts

Turnovers

Patriots

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Colts

Efficiency

Patriots

1/1 100%

Redzone

0/4 0%

5/13 0%

3rd Down

6/14 0%

2/2 0%

4th Down

1/1 0%

Colts

First Downs

Patriots

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Colts

Misc

Patriots

4/34

Penalties/Yards

5/34

25:35

Possession

34:25

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MatchupOverUnder
Colts 4-6	o21.5-105	u21.5-115
Patriots 3-7	o20.5-111	u20.5-115

Colts vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - November 12, 2023

Colts at Patriots

Indianapolis Colts

New England Patriots

Colts at Patriots Odds

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Colts vs. Patriots Previews & Analysis

Week 10 Best Bets: Our Favorite Spreads & Totals

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Koerner's NFL Week 10 Player Props

Colts vs. Patriots: Bet the Total in Germany

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Public

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