NFL Picks & Predictions for Week 10: Expert’s Sunday Afternoon Bets

NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 10

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Chris Raybon is betting from Sunday's slate of NFL Week 10 games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet.

If there were ever such a thing as an ideal matchup for a 2-7 team whose offense is averaging 15.0 points per game, the Colts would be it for the Patriots.

1) The receivers are ranked dead last in yards per target versus man (5.0) but 10th in yards per target against zone (8.1). Rookie wideout Demario Douglas averages 2.38 yards per route run against zone coverage, which is tied with Amari Cooper for 19th among 87 qualified wide receivers versus zone.

2) The Colts rarely blitz. Jones averages a half-yard more per attempt when not blitzed, and his touchdown rate is 3.8% when not blitzed compared to 1.5% when blitzed.

3) They are also vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the seventh-most receiving yards per game to the position (58.9). This is key because the offense is at its best when Hunter Henry is involved. Henry has turned all three of those red-zone targets into touchdowns and ranks 12th in the entire league in receiving success rate (65.0%) among 142 qualified pass-catchers.

4) The Colts defense ranks 23rd in DVOA against the run and 26th in early-down rush success rate (40.2%). This should allow the Patriots to restore more balance to their offense. During their current 1-5 skid, lead back Rhamondre Stevenson has carried more than 10 times in a game only once.

Add it all up and the Patriots should be able to accomplish the rare feat (for them) of consistently staying ahead of the chains and methodically moving down the field. This is key for an offense that ranks 29th in explosive play rate (7.3%) but fourth in red-zone touchdown conversion rate (66.7%).

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The Patriots have edges on the defensive side, as well:

1) The Patriots defense is fifth in DVOA against the run and rush success rate allowed on early downs (30.0%), which should enable them to limit the effectiveness of Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss and force a Colts offense that ranks 27th in pass rate over expectation (-5.5%) out of its comfort zone.

2) When the Colts do take to the air, the Patriots will be facing one of the few quarterbacks who flirts with disaster more than Jones, as Gardner Minshews enters Week 10 with the third-highest turnover-worthy play rate (6.3%), behind only Tyson Bagent and P.J. Walker.

3) The Patriots love to send extra rushers, blitzing at the third-highest rate (34.3%). Among 37 qualified quarterbacks, Minshew ranks second-to-last in YPA (5.0) and dead last in PFF grade (33.2).

4) A staple of Belichick’s defense is taking away the opponent’s No. 1 option, and New England has once again been excellent in that regard, clocking in second in DVOA versus the opposing No. 1 wide receiver. The Colts pass offense will struggle without the usual production from Michael Pittman, who has accounted for 30% of their catches and 28% of their receiving yards. Promising rookie slot receiver Josh Downs is their only other legitimate threat in the passing game, and he missed practice all week with a knee injury. On top of that, Alec Pierce, who starts opposite Pittman on the perimeter, was a mid-week addition to the injury report with an ankle issue and is listed as questionable.

Per our Action Labs data, Minshew-led teams are 3-12 straight-up (SU) and 4-11 against the spread (ATS) over his past 15 starts, which spans four seasons and three different organizations. He didn’t cover the spread in consecutive games in the same season as a starter at any point during that span, which is notable given that the Colts are coming off a 27-13 win over the Panthers.

Minshew is like a baseball pitcher who is great in long relief but can’t quite cut it as a member of the starting rotation: He has now started 29 NFL games, yet has not led his team to back-to-back straight-up wins in the same season since career start No. 6 and No. 7.

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Week 10 has historically been a great time to fade teams that appear as though they’re building momentum. Per Action Labs, when a dog faces a favorite in Week 10 coming off 1-2 straight-up wins, the dog is 53-33-2 (62%) ATS, covering by 1.7 points per game.

Pick: Patriots +2 (-110)

The Packers enter Week 10 averaging an NFL-low 4.5 points per game in the first half, and the Steelers haven’t been much better, averaging 6.9 first-half points per game, fifth-fewest. Jordan Love and Kenny Pickett are near mirror images of each other when it comes to their splits by half:

• Love 1H: 56.4 completion percentage, 4.7 yards per attempt, 67.0 rating
• Pickett 1H: 54.4 completion percentage, 5.3 yards per attempt, 67.4 rating

• Love 2H: 62.0 completion percentage, 8.0 yards per attempt, 92.8 rating
• Pickett 2H: 69.5 completion percentage, 7.9 yards per attempt, 98.6 rating

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Green Bay’s defensive scheme features a top-five rate of zone coverage, which tends to give Pickett trouble because he is far more adept at attacking single coverage on the perimeter than he is at picking apart zones over the middle. Pickett’s adjusted net yards per attempt drops from 6.96 against man to 4.63 versus zone.

Steelers first-half unders are 5-3 (63%) this season, including 5-1 in their last six games. Packers first-half unders are 6-1-1 (86%), covering by an average of 4.8 points per game.

Pick: 1H Under 19.5 (-115)

For the second straight week, the Vikings are getting undervalued in the market due to their injury issues. Due to the large NFL roster size, the salary cap, and a general shortage of talent (especially at premium positions), losing your QB1 or WR1 or LT1 typically means downgrading to replacement-level talent, but that simply hasn’t been the case for the Vikings.

1) Josh Dobbs is at worst in the high-end backup QB tier, but there's a legitimate case to be made that he’s a top-32 QB in the current NFL landscape. Not only was his scrambling and clutch play in a pinch the main reason they won last week, but he also had the Cardinals offense sitting in the top 10 in DVOA for the first month of the season after getting traded there a week before the season started.

Of course, Dobbs replaced Jaren Hall (concussion), who looked well on his way to turning in a strong performance of his own, completing 5-of-6 passes for 78 yards (13.0 yards per attempt) and rushing twice for 11 yards (5.5 yards per carry) before going down.

2) Jordan Addison is no Justin Jefferson, but Addison has been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL as a rookie. Addison is tied for second in the league with seven touchdown catches and is top-25 in receiving yardage, as well. Brandon Powell also acquitted himself well as the new WR3, posting 64 yards in his second start and getting free for the game-winning touchdown catch from Dobbs last week.

3) David Quessenberry started at left tackle last week for Christian Darrisaw (groin), who grades out as the fifth-best pass-blocking tackle in all of football according to PFF. Naturally, Quessenberry proceeded to turn in an even better performance than the man he replaced, earning the second-best tackle in all of football in Week 9. (Darrisaw practiced this week and is listed as questionable).

4) The list goes on: Minnesota grades out as a top-five team in both pass-blocking run-blocking multiple missed games by starting center Garrett Bradbury. They rank top-10 in defensive DVOA despite defensive end Marcus Davenport missing more than half of the season.

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The Vikings have faced one of the league’s toughest schedules – they have already played the Eagles, Chiefs, and 49ers – while the Saints have faced one of the easiest schedules, with all of their wins coming against the likes of Tennessee, Carolina, New England, Indianapolis, and Chicago. Yet not only do these trams have identical 5-4 records, but many of the underlying metrics favor Minnesota.

• Offensive DVOA: MIN 16th, NO 19th
• Offensive EPA/Play: MIN 10th, NO 17th
• Defensive DVOA: MIN 10th, NO 9th
• Schedule-Adjusted Point Differential: MIN +2.2, NO +1.6
• Yard-per-play differential: MIN +0.6, NO 0.0

The key to the Vikings going from a bottom-five defense to a top-10 defense is new defensive coordinator Brian Flores. The former Dolphins head coach has dialed up a blitz on a league-high 53.7% of opposing dropbacks, which spells trouble for Derek Carr. Among 37 qualified quarterbacks versus the blitz this season, Carr ranks 23rd in passer rating (83.8), 25th in YPA (6.8), and 27th in adjusted completion rate (69.3%).

After rushing seven times for 66 yards (9.4 YPC) and a touchdown in his Vikings debut, Dobbs now gets a Saints defense that has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (27.0) and second-most yards per carry (5.65) to opposing quarterbacks. Dennis Allen’s unit is playing man coverage an NFL-high 61.8% of the time, which presents opportunities for the quarterback to scramble while defenders’ backs are turned in coverage.

Even without Jefferson, the Viking receivers should be able to create separation: T.J. Hockenson ranks fourth among tight ends in yards per route versus man coverage (2.12), while Addison (1.79) and K.J. Osborn (2.12) are in the 60th percentile or better among wide receivers.

Allen also faces the challenge of getting his team mentally prepared to play in front of what should be a raucous TCF Bank Stadium crowd, given last week’s epic comeback and the fact that the home team is above .500 for the first time all season. Allen is more of an Xs and Os guys than a leader of men, which has often manifested in his teams coming out flat in spots they’re favored to win. Per our Action Labs data, Allen-coached teams are 5-14-1 (27%) ATS when favored, including 2-8 in his last 10 with the Saints.

Derek Carr is also not the guy you want leading your team in this spot. He has been inconsistent in his first year of the new scheme and is at risk of a letdown after leading his team to back-to-back wins against Indianapolis and Chicago. According to our Action Labs data, Carr is 11-22-1 (33%) ATS in his career in road starts following a win, failing to cover by 6.2 points per game.

Pick: Vikings +3 (-110)