Patriots vs Colts Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 10 Betting Preview

My Patriots vs. Colts prediction is targeting the over/under in this NFL Week 10 matchup. The Patriots-Colts odds have Indianapolis laying 1.5 or two points, depending on the sportsbook.

Indy has been a consistent over machine in the Shane Steichen era, even with Gardner Minshew starting in place of the injured Anthony Richardson, but that trend has peaked. That's why my NFL prediction to start the day is on this total.

Let's break down the matchup and make our Patriots vs. Colts prediction.

The Patriots' defense has struggled to deal with teams with speed all year, but the Colts' offense may be without rookie wide receiver Josh Downs due to injury. Downs left last week's game with a knee injury that he nearly missed last week's game with. He ranks in the top 15 among PFF rookies.

Given that he didn't practice all week, I wouldn't expect Downs to be in the game on Sunday. He's been the best separator in the Colts' receiving room. With wideout Alec Pierce likely to play but also not at 100%, the offense is lacking playmakers.

The Colts are getting some positive injury news on the defensive side of the ball as leading tackler and middle linebacker Zaire Franklin is expected to return. They'll also get corner Tony Brown back in the mix and while he's not great, Indy's depth issues are so significant at corner that Brown is an upgrade over the current situation.

Like Carolina last week, New England is one of the few offenses that can't really exploit matchup advantages on the outside against this makeshift Colts secondary. The Colts play a ton of zone and will force everything underneath, and the Patriots' lack of game-changing playmakers will force every drive to be methodical on their drives.

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Indianapolis wasn't able to run the ball successfully at all against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL last week. The Panthers held the Colts to 73 rush yards on 25 carries and now the Colts will face one of the six best run defenses in the NFL this year. New England is fourth in rushing success rate allowed and sixth in EPA per rush.

Both of these defenses haven't been nearly as bad as their points allowed would suggest. For New England, the early turnovers and defensive scores conceded against the Saints, Cowboys and Eagles put them in horrendous early game states that forced them to be extremely pass-heavy and play faster. This is not where New England is at its best because of the lack of playmaking offensively. The Patriots' offense is 30th in yards per drive and 30th in points per drive, and they haven't exactly played a difficult schedule of opposing defenses overall.

The Patriots' defense is 21st in points allowed per drive but is 12th in yards allowed per drive. The Colts rank 26th in points allowed per drive but also are just 11th in yards per drive. Indianapolis has had major problems in the red zone defensively, but given New England's running struggles, we could see a lot of red zone inefficiency.

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The total opened at 44 here and after ticking down to 43.5, it has remained steady on that number for the entire week. Our Action Network Luck rankings show this to be an 11-point edge to the under, based on all of the defensive touchdowns that have artificially inflated totals in Colts and Patriots games all season long.

Both of these two teams rank in the top two in pace, but this total shouldn't be north of 42 in my view. I'd bet under at anything 43 or better.